AJOnTheRedSox

Pettitte's Departure a Good Omen for Red Sox Nation

2011-02-04T08:02:00.000-08:00

We won't see that Andy Pettitte stare again. I will always associate the televised image of Pettitte's eyes peering just over his glove for the catcher's sign with many other negative Pinstripe memories. Yes, I acknowledge Pettitte's abilities and I enjoyed rooting against him because of that, but.......I'm just happy he won't be around to help the Yankees win so much.

His absence significantly impacts the Red Sox - Yankee rivalry for 2011. It gives the Sox an edge in starting rotations as we enter a year when our hitting line-up, amazingly, has gotten much closer to the quality of the Yankees' line-up with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.
I think the Yanks still have better hitting - without question, but, suddenly, it feels the two teams are much closer --- similar to the feeling we had back in 2003 and 2004, for instance. This comes after about six years of the Yankees maintaining their old "superiority" over the Sox.
I'd still probably give a slight overall edge to the Yanks, but, I feel much more confident - like many Sox fans - about the matchup.

Pettitte went 11-3 last season and has defied the odds by continuing to pitch at the highest level despite his age. He's 38 now as he announces his retirement today.
The Bombers were hoping that Pettitte would remain in their already-shaky starting rotation.
Now, the Yanks' rotation is even more shaky. Last season, the Yanks' starting pitchers collective ERA ranked 22nd in Major League Baseball, according to a recent post by Cliff Corcoran, a writer for S.I./com. The Yankees, despite that horrible stat, relied on their fantastic hitting to make it to the ACLS in 2010 before losing badly to the Texas Rangers.
The Yanks will again have C./C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett back as starters, but their #4 and # 5 starters are not confirmed and are unlikely to match the quality of the Red Sox' #4 and #5.
Also, consider the context: Sabathia is coming off two outstanding seasons. Is he likely to do that in a third consecutive year? Maybe he'll be good, but I doubt he can be quite as dazzling.
Hughes' numbers were impressive last year. He finished at 18-8, but, Corcoran's S.I./com article reminded me his year wasn't what it appeared. In his final 23 starts, Hughes posted a 5.05 ERA and he benefited from tremendous run support, Corcoran wrote. (an average of 6.75 runs per game he pitched) Burnett finished at 10-15 in 2010 and had a lousy year across the board. Plus, consider that Burnett had consistent injury problems before he arrived in NY, and, yet, has been healthy during his two year stint. At 34, coming off his poor year, is he likely to be a healthy, incredible "ace" in 2011? I doubt it.
So, if you look at the questions facing Hughes and Burnett and then factor in the likely limitations of the two unknowns the Yanks designate to fill out their rotation, it's fair to say their rotation has not looked this potentially flawed in many years.

If one considers the Red Sox rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka, it seems the Sox have an indisputable edge on paper. Of course, Beckett and Lackey have a lot to prove after their sub-par seasons and we simply don't know if one or both are facing an unavoidable drop in their "stuff" at this stage of their careers. I worry, in particular, about Beckett, who has been unable to throw his fastball as hard the past two years -- when that has been his signature pitch his whole career. Lackey's fastball also lacked the zip of his past seasons. So, we just won't know until the late spring whether one or both of these guys appears on the "down side." Or, perhaps one or both will work on their problems in spring training and come back strong.
However the details evolve, I cannot believe that Beckett and Lackey together will be worse than the #4 and #5 newcomers to the Yankee rotation. And, I think Lester and Buchholz match up against Sabathia and Hughes because even if Sabathia is the best, our #2, I'd argue, is better than Hughes.
Dice-K looked decent for much of last season, but, he still has bad habits that are unlikely to go away. If the Sox could trade Dice-K, I'd do it right now.

Pettitte's departure reminds me that the old Yankee-Red Sox rivalry is not far from a total transformation. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are getting older and won't be the hitting threats they once were. Even Mariano Rivera cannot pitch forever. Plus, on our side, David Ortiz is playing what will likely be his last year for the Red Sox. So, all of the players who were part of the unique excitement of 2004 will soon be fading or off both of these two great teams.

It seems that something different is going on with the Yankees in early 2011. GM Brian Cashman is having public disagreements with the owners. Yankee management was stupid enough to get into a public spat with Jeter over his contract a couple of months ago. The team looks more fragile. Could the team be headed for an unusually bad year?

That's unlikely, but, Pettitte's departure will make things harder in the Bronx.

What's Up with Papelbon?

2010-12-31T06:41:00.000-08:00

Large questions surround Jonathan Papelbon right now. Fans are wondering if the affable, fist-pumping closer will be able to return to top form for one last year, or, if 2011 will bring a continuation of subpar performance as he prepares to say goodbye.

First, is there still a chance the 30-year-old Papelbon may be traded before the 2011 season? How about being traded during the season, particularly at the trading deadline if he's not performing that well? Second, can he still pitch well enough to serve as the team's closer? Third, how will he feel about the addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen?

Beyond that, what was Papelbon's reaction to the Red Sox making an off-season offer to NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera - even if it was only semi-serious? (It was a three-year offer for $51 million, after all)

In summary, the situation with Papelbon does not appear to be nearly as "settled" as Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has suggested. The Red Sox have said they expect Jenks and Daniel Bard to share the role of setting up Papelbon, who they've expressed confidence in.

That's the key question, of course: can Papelbon can regain his effectiveness after the 2010 season, when he had a career-record number of eight blown saves? The crux of concern is that Papelbon's fastball is not what it used to be. What made Papelbon's fastball terrific was its "late life" - which often result in batters swinging at strike three. However, in the past two seasons, Papelbon's fastball has often lacked some of its giddy-up and become a very hittable, "straight" fastball. In fact, while in 2009, Papelbon's fastball regained some movement late in the season, in 2010, Papelbon seemed to have more permanently lost the "zip" needed.
Worsening matters, Papelbon's command of that straighter fastball has been average or poor much of the time, resulting in him giving up hits, including far more home runs, and many more walks than earlier in his career.

By the end of the 2010 season, I got the impression that Papelbon simply couldn't throw his "old" moving fastball - period. Every outing, he'd throw his "new" straighter fastball - often at slightly less velocity- and hitters had no trouble getting wood on the ball. Often Papelbon also
lacked any control and threw his fastballs down or near the middle of the plate. This bad combination resulted in many shaky appearances; in fact, his performances caused him to narrowly avoid more blown saves than the eight he suffered.

Papelbon has to find a way to salvage his pitching. Either he has used his off-season workouts and conditioning to try an approach that will bring back the late life on his heater OR he needs to really develop one of his other pitches further. I don't think an occasional split-fingered fastball or mediocre slider will be enough for Papelbon.

So, as it turns out, the potential impact of Jenks is the least of Papelbon's concerns. Hopefully, Jenks will improve on his last few seasons of pitching in subpar form, but, regardless, Papelbon needs all the help he can get. If he continues to pitch OK but keeps declining a bit, Papelbon will leave after 2011 and Bard will likely become the new closer. (Unless Jenks surprises the hell out of everyone and outpitches Bard or convinces the Sox to leave Bard in the setup role)

Papelbon is entering his 6th year no the Red Sox. He's in his final year of arbitration and is expected to work out another one-year deal for approximately $11 million. He's said all along he looked forward to becoming a free agent, but, the irony is that now, unless he can turn things around, he won't attract many interested teams.

It's a shame that Papelbon appears to be following the cycle of most closers. They reach their peak early and pitch their hearts out, but, then, their skills decline rather fast too.

I hope Papelbon can somehow revive his old fastball. He could make all the difference in the Red Sox chances to win it all in 2011. He certainly made a difference in contributing to the 2007 championship.

If Papelbon can come back in 2011, he'll be defeating all the odds and the trends. If, by chance, he has pitched his best baseball, he's already given Red Sox fans many thrills.

Reactions to the Red Sox' Terrific Off-Season - So Far

2010-12-14T13:26:00.001-08:00

The Red Sox recent signing of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford has been a "positive shock" to
fans across New England. The team, on paper, is argubly in a much stronger position to contend for a championship. On the other hand, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in projections because unforeseen developments often alter things.

As this blog is posted, the team still has a long way to go to inject much-needed improvement to its bullpen, which performed very poorly in 2010.

Among my many reactions to these "mega-deals" are the following:

I think it's obvious that the Sox ownership and management team felt it had to make some major moves in this particular off-season. It appears as if owner John Henry - perhaps joined by others - told General Manager Theo Epstein that, unlike in past offseasons, they not only were OK with signing star players to long, very expensive contracts, but, in fact, enthusiastically supported Epstein taking this approach. Epstein has consistently avoided signing elite players to deals of more than four years. This is a view I've heard expressed by Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on "98.5 - The Sports Hub," the sports radio talk show that has successfully challenged WEEI in Boston in the past year. Indeed, it is almost inconceivable, to me, to imagine Epstein orchestrating the Crawford deal on his own. Crawford is a very good player, but, he's not worth signing for $142 million over seven years! I accept that Theo has long eyed and planned to go after Gonzalez. The significant decline in the team's television ratings on NESN last summer was an important factor. Plus, the team's top officials, including Theo, had to be aware of the lack of "buzz" about the 2010 Red Sox. Having said all this, I still am amazed the team agreed to two huge deals in the same winter. Any doubts about whether the Sox were willing to go head-to-head spending-wise with the NY Yankees after the team's struggles since the 2009 playoffs have been eliminated in one fell swoop.
By adding Gonzalez and Crawford to the young leaders of the team - like Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - Sox officials have increased the odds of the team being in the competitive mix for the next several years at least.
The team's hitting will be much better, but, people are overlooking that Gonzalez and Crawford are essentialy replacing the hitting of Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, who, last year, consistently led the team's offense and came up with clutch hits, particularly Beltre. Still, Beltre performed "over his head" last year and there are concrete reasons to believe "Gonzo" really will thrive in Fenway Park and hit far more home runs and extra base hits there compared to his output in San Diego. Gonzalez, strikingly, has hit better on the road than in PETCO field, a huge "pitchers' park."
The Yankees' failure to sign Cliff Lee, their top priority for the winter, cannot be overestimated in terms of its potential impact on the Sox-Yanks battle to win the AL East. The Yankees' starting pitching is what did them in in the 2010 playoffs. Now, it's unlikely they'll add a top-notch starter. In addition, Andy Pettitte may or may not return. C.C. Sabathia is a bit older and less likely to keep performing at such an incredible level. Lastly, several of the Bombers' stars - Jeter, Posada, Rivera - are getting old, making the odds of at least some decline in ability or performance more likely.
I have a strong opinion on the Sox lineup that I haven't heard others express so far. I believe the team should consider trying to convince Crawford to return to hitting in the leadoff spot, thereby replacing Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, Crawford has to be OK with this move and media reports have suggested that he prefers to NOT hit lead-off, however, if, in fact, he might accept the move, he'd be far better than Ellsbury and that would allow Youkilis to bat third and Gonzalez to bat clean-up, with David Ortiz in the fifth spot. When you leave Ellsbury in the lead-off spot and bat Pedroia second and Crawford third, you force Youkilis to bat fifth, presumably behind Gonzalez. There is no way, in my view, that keeping Ellsbury in the lead-off spot should force Youkilis, who has been the team's best hitter, to bat fifth. You want Youk to get more at-bats than that. Jacoby Ellsbury has been quite average as the leadoff hitter in the lineup. He still lacks patience and is not able to wait for the ball to come all the way in -- a skill that good "contact" hitters have. Good leadoff hitters hit for contact and walk often but Ellsbury does neither. Beyond all this, Ellsbury can hit in the 9th spot and be a dangerous bridge to Crawford and the top of the lineup. That way, the lineup would benefit from the back-to-back speed of Ellsbury and Crawford without the liability of Ellsbury's limited hitting skill impacting the strong hitters behind him.
Of course, the Red Sox are more likely to hit Ellsbury first, Pedrois second and Crawford third with Gonzo at cleanup and Youkilis fifth and Big Papi sixth. Even that way, the lineup is much harder for a pitcher to get through - with JD Drew the likely 7th hitter followed by Marco Scutaro and Jared Saltalamacchia - in whatever sequence.
I wrote about Gonzo's likely impact in a previous blog, but I think Crawford's performance is a bit harder to predict. His capacity to play outstanding in left field - at Fenway and on the road - is easy to predict. Crawford may quickly remind people of Yaz - and, possibly, better, at Fenway. He's a superlative fielder, and, when he gets even more used to the Monster, he'll probably start throwing runners out. Crawford is a very good hitter whose strength is his consistency to make contact. He has hit in the low .300 area in five of his nine seasons and .296 in two other seasons - meaning he's basically been at .300 for most of his career. Likewise, Crawford has gotten more than 180 hits in six seasons and 177 in a seventh. He has hit more than 10 HRs in six seasons. Last year, he reached his highest home run total at 19.
It seems - from the early exposure to Gonzo and Crawford - that both have an excellent attitude in terms of effort and hunger to win it all, but, also, neither seems likely to be fazed by playing in Boston. In fact, it's easy to imagine both guys loving the additional attention and appreciation of the fans here compared to in San Diego and Tampa Bay, where things were a lot more low-key.
It's absolutely amazing that the Red Sox, after several years of avoiding big, expensive, long-term deals, have made two within the past two weeks. Of course, they completed a trade of three minor-league players for Gonzalez and have to work out a long-term deal. It's expected the team will end up paying Gonzo over $20 million a year for at least six years, and, maybe seven. The Red Sox clearly concluded they had to give a large, exciting jumpstart to the team, after a 2010 season when people were losing interest. Now, Epstein and Henry have put together a new "nucleus" that should keep the Red Sox competitive for a number of years. I expect a World Series within the next five years. Back when I was growing up in the 1960s, I would have never said that. Let's face it: While this Henry/Lucchino/Epstein management team has its flaws, they deserve enormous credit for bringing a whole new era to the Red Sox that just keeps continuing. I can't wait for the 2011 season.

It's "Gonzo" or Bust for 2011 Red Sox

2010-12-03T17:26:00.000-08:00

Just when pressure was building on the Red Sox to make a major deal before 2011, Sox GM Theo Epstein has pulled out his "ace in the hole."

The Red Sox, as of today, have agreed to a deal, in principle, for San Diego Padres' first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres' slugger, viewed as one of the best hitters in the game, will automatically become the new "centerpiece" of their lineup, giving them a much-needed boost in power. (A serious power vacuum has existed since the days when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were both hitting in their prime at the 3rd and 4th spots in the order)

Boston's baseball writers and serious fans were beginning to question how the Sox brass could assemble a competitive team for 2011 when Epstein suddenly stepped up negotiations for Gonzalez in the past two days. Now, as of Dec. 4th, a deal has been concluded that has the Sox trading a few top prospects - including pitcher Casey Kelly, - for Gonzo, a proven slugger who can become the "center" of their lineup. Gonzalez and the Red Sox will soon iron out the details of his new contract, expected to be an expensive, long-term package.

What's understated is the extent to which the Red Sox desparately needed to get Gonzalez. The Sox' off-season until now has been a real "downer" - with the loss of catcher Victor Martinez, on of its best hitters, and serious signs that third baseman Adrian Beltre is unlikely to return. Beltre was the Red Sox' best hitter in 2010 and carried the team on his back for key stretches. The Red Sox, in the past few days, had met with free agent outfielders Carl Crawfod of the Tampa Bay Rays and Jason Werth of the Phillies, but, I'd argue that neither of those two are worth large, long-term investments. Crawford, with his blazing speed, is more multi-talented than Werth, but, still not the kind of "game-changer" a team necessarily wants to commit more than $80 - $100 million to for five or six years.

The team was already short on hitting going into 2010, but, without Martinez and Beltre, the "hole" in their 2011 lineup would have been gargantuan without the addition of Gonzalez. In fact, I'd argue that, even with Gonzalez, the Sox need a bit more hitting to compete with the Yankees in the AL East. The subtraction of Beltre and Martinez is still greater than the addition of Gonzo. Of course, the Red Sox are not done with their dealing yet. Perhaps they'll still add Phillies' free agent outfielder Werth, but, I doubt they'll follow through, now, on either Werth or Crawford, though, due to the size, length and cost of the Gonzo deal.

Gonzalez, in the 2010 season, batted .298, with 31 HR, 101 RBI, and an OPS of .904. His numbers have been excellent for the past five years or so, but, what enhances them is that he hit that well in PETCO field, which is widely recognized as a "pitchers ballpark." Many believe he'll hit considerably better at Fenway Park, which is suited for lefthanded hitters who can take advantage of hitting balls of the Green Monster in left field. Gonzalez, who has an "inside-out" swing, will likely grow fond of the Monster and may benefit, like other Bosox lefthanded sluggers, from the right-field fence being moved in a bit before the start of the 2011 season.

Unknown, of course, is whether Gonzalez will end up having the personality, temperment and style that makes it easier to succeed in Boston, which some players find very tough or impossible to play in. I don't know anything about this guy, but he'll benefit from having some solid, unselfish teammates like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz.

Will the Red Sox add more hitting? I hope so. Many writers and fans have forgotten that the team never really replaced Manny Ramirez, who left in the middle of the 2008 season. They didn't replace Jason Bay, who they let go, as a free agent, at the end of the 2009 season. They got some power back with Victor Martinez, at the 2009 trading deadline, but, Victor is gone now. And, the same goes with their temporary benefits last year from Adrian Beltre, who is widely expected to sign with another team now.

I can see a lineup now consisting of: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Dustin Pedroia 3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Kevin Youkilis 5. David Ortiz 6. JD Drew 7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia 8. ________ 9. Marco Scutaro

I left the #8 spot blank because it's unclear who will play left field and where that person will be inserted in the lineup. I still think that when you consider Ellsbury's limited hitting skills, the fading abilities of Ortiz and the ineffectiveness of Drew, the team's overall hitting will still be lacking against the good teams. I have to admit, however, that Gonzo has reignited some of my hopes.

Now, the team needs to find new blood for its incomplete, weak bullpen, and, it just may round out into an overall condition that allows it to compete in the AL East much better than in 2010.

As Victor Leaves, Sox Fade Further

2010-11-23T14:51:00.000-08:00

Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein apparently remains in denial about his team's hitting ability. Or, perhaps he's aware of the hitting deficit and he's preparing for another "bridge year" in 2011.

Either way, the Red Sox just allowed the team to get a lot worse by letting free agent catcher Victor Martinez get away. He was one of the best hitters on the team.

Worsening matters, the Sox could have easily signed Martinez to a new deal. Martinez, unlike some free agents, had expressed a desire to stay in Boston. He also happened to be a leader in the clubhouse.

Martinez was one of the only hitters on the team - except Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - who could hit for contact. Victor could also hit for power, and, I'd say that only he and Youkilis could hit for both. Now, with Adrian Beltre almost certainly out the door, the team faces a tremendous void in hitting. Signing free agent Jason Werth would not make up for Victor's bat.

That's what's bad here: Even if the Sox "replace" Martinez' hitting, they'll still be short. The 2010 Red Sox - despite what many baseball pundits said - lacked the kind of hitting you need to win a championship. Yeah, I heard repeatedly that the team was among MLB's best in "runs scored" for the first half of the season. My reaction: It was a misleading stat. The team bashed the ball vs. average pitchers and often couldn't hit better pitchers. They hit fastballs but often suffered vs. pitchers with good breaking or off-speed stuff. When Pedroia, and, then, Youkilis went down with injuries, the team's weak hitting was more exposed.

Bottom-line: Since Manny Ramirez's departure in the middle of the 2008 season, the Red Sox hitting has declined, dipping below what's necessary for the team to advance in the playoffs. People still don't seem to realize how special the Ramirez/Ortiz combination was in the 2003-07 period: They were like Gehrig and Ruth -- a unique strength that helped carry the Sox to the championships. By contrast, have baseball writers and fans already forgotten how pitifully the Sox hit in the 2009 playoffs - when the Angels swept them?

How did this happen? Why hasn't management found more good hitters for its lineup? I think part of it is that Epstein and Company have tried to convince the fan base that "things are OK" - when they're not. Last year, for example, we heard endlessly about how well "substitute" players like Daniel Nava and Billy Hall performed when, the team really played above its talent level and gutted out wins. In reality, the team's hitting was not as good as others - such as the Yankees or Phillies, and, certainly no better than teams like the Blue Jays or the Rays.

If you go up and down the Sox lineup, I think Epstein and others have some degree of denial about almost every player. Jacoby Ellsbury? He's been overrated by everybody, when, he still hasn't shown he can hit different kinds of pitches and wait long enough to make contact more often. Despite his speed, he's a very "average" leadoff hitter because of his "average" hitting.

Pedroia? A good hitter who can grind out at-bats as well as anyone on the team. He CAN hit for contact and hit a variety of pitches. Youkilis? The best hitter on the team - period. Ortiz? A hitter in decline who covered up his deteriorating skills by belting home runs fairly often. Ortiz is a very good "mistake pitch" hitter, but he can no longer hit for contact well. Many pitchers can fool him with breaking stuff. It was crazy to pay him $12.5 million for 2011 while choosing to let Victor sign a reasonable deal with the Tigers.

Theo got incredibly lucky with Adrian Beltre. Yes, he hoped Beltre would hit better in Fenway in a year before free agency, but, Beltre was off the charts! Beltre carried the team for good chunks of the season, belting doubles and home runs off the Monster. Without Beltre's exceptional season, the Sox would have finished in much more mediocre fashion and been further exposed.

What other hitters are even on this team? JD Drew? Theo's denial about Drew suggests he has an unusual "delusion" about this particular player. Drew didn't even put up his usual "average" numbers in 2010. He was simply bad - along with his regular bad habits -- failing to hit with men on base, hitting endless "dribblers" to the second baseman and choosing to be picky at the plate rather than swinging at borderline strikes and getting more hits to help his team.

Marco Scutaro? He hit decently last year and showed a lot of guts to keep playing despite a bad injury. (Why didn't the team sit him down more in the end of the season rather than risk further injury?) Theo got Mike Cameron for last year despite his weak hitting. Cameron missed most of the season, but, he would have been unable to add much punch, anyway.

There is no need to examine any other players. Epstein, owner Johne Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino must snap out of their denial about the team's hitting. The Red Sox had a fairly weak hitting lineup with Victor Martinez. Now, it is very weak. (Let's not forget the team lost Mike Lowell too, who has been a reliable clutch hitter for years here)

I fear that Theo and his baseball operations team are so "stat-happy" that they've lost sight of the critical, intangible, human factors in making a good baseball team. I believe that "clutch hitting" does exist -- despite Bill James' "study" or whoever concluded, ridiculously, that it's wrong to think some hitters are much better in the clutch. How do you explain Derek Jeter's hitting in late innings vs. the Red Sox then? I digress, but, my point is you can't build a lineup based on stats. Does Theo want a lineup filled with JD Drews? God, that's a nightmare I cannot face. I don't care what the baseball geeks might say: Drew is one of the most over-rated players I've ever seen in my life. Yet Theo Epstein still thinks he's terrific.

I bring this up because Theo had better wake up and admit the team needs "different" players if it is to return to the glory days of 2004 and 2007. I mean we need a "star" player or two back here. It was Manny Ramirez - as much as any other Sox player - who helped bring us the two World Series championships. It's not a coincidence that Manny was signed by Dan Duquette - not Theo Epstein, who would never sign a guy to a big, long contract like Manny's in Boston. Oh, and, yes, Duquette signed Pedro Martinez to an expensive contract too. Manny and Pedro brought exciting, unforgettable baseball moments to Boston that will be remembered far longer than anything JD Drew has done.

You need stars, Theo! Ever since the Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, they've been in a slump in signing big-name stars here. Let's hope it ends soon. Theo's challenge now will be to sign more than one star in the next year or two because Victor Martinez' departure has left the team's hitting deficit much deeper. Bring on Adrian Gonzalez.

Red Sox Should Not Extend David Ortiz

2010-11-02T14:28:00.000-07:00

It makes no sense for the Red Sox to sign David Ortiz to any deal longer than one year. I mean NO sense. So, if Ortiz, in the next day or two, reiterates his current stand - that he wants anything longer than the team's one-year option the team can offer him, the Red Sox must simply say "No."

In my view, it'd be preferable for the Red Sox to cut ties with Ortiz now simply because his abilities have begun to fade noticeably, and, it's usually wise to part with such a player -- even a legendary star like Big Papi. Especially when that player would earn $12.5 million in 2011. I have the feeling that, in 2010, the Sox got about the best Ortiz has left in him. He hit 32 HRs, knocked in 102 RBIs and batted .270.

Though I love Ortiz and view him as the player most responsible for bringing the the Sox a championship in 2004, I can point to the same evidence as any serious Sox observers. In 2004, what made Ortiz scary was that he could hit for power and contact. Now, approaching 2011, he's become primarily a "mistake pitch" hitter. He can nail fastballs that catch too much of the plate, but, he cannot drive different pitches on the corners for line drives to all parts of the field like he used to. He "can be pitched to" much more easily, and, is far more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Ortiz hits lefthanded pitchers strikingly worse than he did before.

So, why have all of Boston's baseball writers and broadcast journalists seemed to conclude that, of course, the Red Sox should give Ortiz his option year, and, some have supported considering an extension for him? Well, it's unsurprising, in many ways because Boston baseball media often don't take stands that are the least bit unconventional, unpredictable or original. In this case, supporting a tough stance vs. Ortiz would also bring a bit of conflict and controversy into play. Boston's baseball writers tend to stay in a safe "pack."

Yes, Big Papi's departure would force the Red Sox to replace his bat in the lineup. Yes, they'd have to have a few options in mind at this point ......but, the team should have thought about all that by now. If the 2010 Sox were willing to look toward the future, why can't they do so in 2011? Investing in a younger player in his prime as DH makes more sense than paying such a huge salary to an older, fading player. (Most other designated hitters - including Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui - earn salaries about half that of Ortiz).

Why should the team pay its aging DH one of the highest annual salaries given that he's in decline? Why should the team plan on keeping him around any more than one season given the erosion of Ortiz's skills in the past two years. I'm not saying Ortiz had "bad" seasons in 2009 or 2010. He ended with good numbers in 2010, but one can see what's on the horizon.

The Red Sox, in recent years, have sometimes made unwise moves, when it comes to contracts. The team gave Josh Beckett an extension before it had to, and Beckett has not performed up to expectations since then. The team chose to over-pay John Lackey, and his 2010 performance was mediocre. The team over-paid JD Drew, giving him a $13 million annual salary that he never earned and has never matched in performance.

If the Sox are trying to build a young team for the future - with its top-notch pitchers and players like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - why do they feel obligated to keep Ortiz any more than one year at such a high salary?

The answer is: they don't need to. They cannot keep Big Papi purely for what he's given the team in the past. No matter when Ortiz leaves, his contributions in 2004 and beyond will never be forgotten.

Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose!

2010-10-28T04:49:00.000-07:00

The New York Yankees lost the 2010 ACLS to the Texas Rangers. It's been over since last week, but I just want to say it again. It feels good. Let's see: how about expressing it a few different ways?
-- The Yankees failed to win a championship for one more year of the Jeter/Rivera/Pettite/ Posada era that links them to the other painful times they won since 1996.
-- The Yankees lost in 2010 despite being loaded up with so much talent that one could argue they should have won another title. So, in a way, the lineup with Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, Cano, Posada, Swisher and Granderson should have won. If you factor in Sabathia, Pettite, Rivera and the rest, yeah, they blew it. I still feel the positive after-effects!
--The Yankees lost and their veteran players will all be a year older in 2011 - That's a good thing.
--The Yankees have won only one championship (2009) in the past ten years. Translation: They've been the most loaded team in baseball for virtually this entire decade, but, have found ways to lose in 9 of the last 10 years. (8 times in the playoffs) Yippee!

It remains a mystery, even to me, why I hate the Yankees so much, but, it's true.

I want to highlight a few other things I noticed about their performance that led to their exit:

In my view, some of their players didn't appear to be that fired up about the series vs. the Rangers. They didn't seem to care quite as much about whether they won or lost. Maybe it's understandable, in a way. Guys like Jeter and Posada have won so many damned times that they might have a little "playoff burnout."
Staying on Jeter for a second, he had a particularly mediocre series - by Jeter's post-season standards. Could it be that the Yankee captain is finally showing his age? He's getting married soon, right? Maybe he's a bit distracted by off-field activity, for a change.
Posada seemed to show his age a bit too. He got a few hits, but, in other at-bats, he seemed a bit
slower in his reaction time than some of his moments vs. the Red Sox in past playoffs. Plus, he's become a lousy catcher in terms of his ability to throw out runners attempting steals. Posada's arm is simply not as quick or accurate. Plus, Posada's defense behind the plate seems to have slipped a bit. Every year, in the playoffs, he seems to have more trouble preventing passed balls.
Mariano Rivera looked dominant and fine. No surprise there. Rivera never seeems to change. Pettite pitched well in his one game. No surprise there.

C.C. Sabathia had one good game and one not-so-good game - That was a change. A.J. Burnett, who pitched well for part of one game, still blew it by giving up a big 3-run homer. That seems a trend with Burnett, who the Yankees payed a bundle to get. And, besides Kerry Wood, who pitched OK, the rest of the Yankee bullpen performed badly. That was good to see.

So, is it possible that we're seeing a few "chinks" in the Yankee armor? Are there signs of "decline" in the Evil Empire? I hope so, but, my guess is they'll acquire more star players to try to bolster their sickening, monopolistic hold on baseball.
And, I know one thing for sure: Come Opening Day of the 2011 season, I'll still hate the Yankees as much as ever.

I So HATE the NY Yankees

2010-10-15T20:47:00.000-07:00

It's playoff time again, and that means it's GroundHog Day if you're a Red Sox fan who roots hard for the Yankees to lose. (when the Sox have failed to make the playoffs)
Tonight, the Rangers jumped out to a 5-0 lead over the Yanks, and, even better, they knocked Yanks' super ace C.C. Sabathia out of the game. I had been listening on my car radio, but, when I got home, I couldn't resist the potential joy of witnessing a Yankee loss of a first game of a playoff series.
I still wasn't "sold" on the game being over. We Yankee-haters have learned for more than a decade that a five-run lead against the Evil Bombers is not big enough. C.J. Wilson, the Rangers' starter was looking awfully impressive, however. He looked confident as he fooled many Yankee hitters with his off-speed stuff. Slowly, gradually, I got sucked into the game and I was fantasizing about the end of the game --- the "buzz" that would be created by the Rangers beating Sabathia. With Cliff Lee due to pitch in Game 3 and Game 7, if necessary, suddenly, I
could imagine, if only for a split second, the possibility of the Rangers winning the series.
And then, the Yankees did their usual GroundHog Day thing. They rallied for five runs in the 9th inning. The Rangers' bullpen collapsed --- and, yet, it didn't seem surprising.
No.................................At this point, any kind of rally by the Yankees, and, especially their come-from-behind rallies late in the game, do NOT - I repeat - do NOT surpise me or many other fans. It's the opposite, effect, in fact. As soon as the Yanks begin their so-predictable rally or "march" to take the game, I can easily imagine the rest of the rally and the end of the game.
Tonight, once the Yanks got the game from them trailing by four (5-1) to trailing by 1 (5-4), the
game felt "over" to me -- in the Yank's favor. I turned the channel. I didn't want to watch all the details. I sensed they'd score more runs to go ahead, and, sure enough, when I checked back about 15 minutes later, the Yanks were up 6-5. I watched Mariano Rivera shut the Rangers
down. Do any of you - at this point - ever believe Rivera will NOT get the save? If so, you
must not have suffered through watching him celebrate the nauseatingly high number of wins
that I've witnessed him celebrate.
I am SO SICK of the Yankees. Aren't you? They always do this. The script is the same. A few players change year to year....but the storyline is the same and it goes like this: The Yankees are so fucking stacked with talent that no matter how many innings it takes them, eventually, their surplus - their tremendous edge in talent - emerges and shows itself and they win the game. They might as well be robots at this point.
It's SO boring and sickening to watch them win in the same way, in the same patterns - year after year.
I beg the Philadelphia Phillies to eliminate the Yankees this year. Please take me out of Yankee GroundHog Day. It's a drab place to be. And Bill Murray isn't around in this version.

Red Sox May Have Another "Bridge" Year in 2011

2010-09-23T07:19:00.000-07:00

As the Red Sox prepare to close the books on a disappointing 2010 season, let's hope the management team of GM Theo Epstein, CEO Larry Lucchino and Owner John Henry find the wisdom to make some good decisions about next season and beyond.

The Red Sox' 2010 season collapsed due to a rash of serious injuries to important players and a
few key weaknesses on the team, such as a poor bullpen.

The choices don't get any easier for Theo and Company in the weeks and months ahead. The Sox brass must decide how much they're willing to risk another season of not making the playoffs in 2011. Should they try hard to add a few new, good players this winter - via trade or free agency? Should they decide to plan on bringing up one or two of their young players to get a lot more starts during the 2011 season? (Ryan Kalish, for example)

And, what are the Sox going to do about David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez - whose contracts are due to expire at the end of this season?

Let's start with decisions on this "big three" group.

Ortiz: I would consider saying goodbye to Ortiz when this season ends. Though he again managed to put up good numbers, Ortiz is not the same hitter he was a few years ago - whether it's due to age or other factors. He's evolved into a very good "mistake" hitter. If and when pitchers leave fastballs over the plate, Big Papi often can still belt these balls either out of the park or against the fence for a double. However, Ortiz cannot hit for contact the way he could back in 2004 - 06. He can't get wood on many pitches; in fact, he can be pitched to by many of the best pitchers on other teams. Pitchers can often get Papi out with good breaking stuff - curves, sliders, cutters. Lefthanded pitchers can get him out almost all the time. (His average vs lefties is terrible)
So, the argument goes, if Ortiz's "contact hitting" skills are continuing to decline, why should the Sox pay him another $12.5 million in 2011? I think it makes more sense to cut ties with him now than to wait until later. It'd be part of a decision to "rebuild" in 2011.
I will say this: I am not as opposed to paying Big Papi for just one more year based on the premise that, after a bad start, he rebounded to have a consistent year and provided a key part of the team's power. But, I am absolutely opposed to the Sox signing Ortiz to anything beyond one more year. He's getting older and that makes no sense.

Beltre: This is a tough decision. If there is any way the Red Sox can offerr Beltre a high salary for the next couple of years, with maybe an option for a third year, I'd support re-signing him. Beltre was the star of the team this year. Often, he won games single-handedly, getting the "big hits" time and again. Plus, he seems like he's terrifically suited for Fenway Park. He rips so many line drives down the line or off the Green Monster. For these reasons, I think the Sox should offer Beltre a lot of money for two or three years. The problem is that he and agent Scott Boraas will likely want a deal for four years or more. If the Sox could make a fourth year incentive-laden, I'd try that. If Boras and Beltre are stubborn about these details, then I can understand the Sox being reluctant. Beltre, until this year, has had a fairly erratic performance in the past. So, I think the argument would be to pay him really well for a shorter time, but try hard to keep him -- if he's open to a deal shorter than 4 or more years.

Martinez: Of these three, I'd try the hardest to sign Victor. He's a great hitter - for contact and power. His attitude is great: Players describe him as one of the leaders in the clubhouse. He played with a bad thumb for the entire second half of the season. After a poor start throwing out baserunners trying to steal, Martinez improved as the season progressed. He can catch, play first base and hit at DH, making his signing feel less risky. If nothing else, you know Victor can hit - and from both sides of the plate.

I don't think there is any way the Sox can or should bring back all three of this trio - of Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez. I think they have to bring back either one or two, however. I'd take steps to ensure Victor's return, try hard for Beltre and be willing to part with Ortiz.

What other moves loom on the horizon? The pitching staff seems intact. Even if Josh Beckett and John Lackey struggle again in 2011, the Red Sox are stuck with their big contracts now. No other team will want to trade for either of those two now. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz should return ready to excel again in 2011. As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, now is a good time to try to trade him in the offseason.

Daisuke has two years left on his contract, and, I believe he's due to be paid $10 million in 2011.
At this point, we know a lot about Matsuzaka. Though he got plenty of rest during the 2009 season after reporting unprepared to pitch, and, he got time off due to injury for a small part of 2010, Daisuke pitched well only in spurts during this season. For one stretch, he got it together and walked fewer hitters, and posted a handful of excellent starts back-to-back. But, then, he
struggled in a few starts, and, as the season is ending, he still seems like he's unreliable, too prone to control problems and too tentative about challenging hitters.
Matsuzaka seems either resistant to change or unable to accept suggestions and incorporate adjustments into his pitching. He makes the same mistakes over and over. It's time to let him go. He has not turned out to be the pitching stud he was made out to be. Instead, he's been a solid, decent pitcher -- far from the "star" he was in Japan. If the Sox can get a quality player or two back for Daisuke - or a couple of top prospects, I'd do that in a minute.
I've seen enough of Matsuzaka.
One caveat: The Sox would have to have someone good ready to replace him in the rotation, and, I'm not including Tim Wakefield in that discussion. The team should cut ties with Wake, at this point. Not only is he injury-prone almost every year, but, he can't pitch well with any consistency anymore - and, yes, he's very old.

I think the team is preparing to part company with Jonathan Papelbon, who, clearly has lost some zip on his fastball. I wouldn't mind bringing Papelbon back for one more year, if he could convince the front office that he could get some "giddy-up" back into his fastball during 2011. If pitching coach John Farrell and others think Papelbon's fastball will not improve again, I'd consider trading him now in the offseason. It all depends on the details about what's happening with his arm. Papelbon needs that late life on his heater, or he becomes ordinary awfully fast.

I disagree with many of Boston's baseball writers who have maintained the Sox' offense was adequate in 2010, particularly during the first half of the season. I thought the hitting was lacking enough punch throughout the lineup for the entire season. I thought the team needed another power hitter or another contact hitter -- even when Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia were in the lineup. So, I think no matter what decisions the team makes on Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez, they will have to probably add some firepower to remain competitive with the Yankees and the Rays, whose lineups are superior now.

It remains unclear if the team will try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury after the young centerfielder voiced his dissatisfaction with how the team's doctors treated him after his rib injuries. If Ellsbury returns, it'll reinforce the need for more hitting because he's a mediocre contact hitter to have leading off. He did improve a bit during the 2009 season, so, we never saw whether he'd have kept the same performance going during 2010.

These are just a few of many questions facing the Red Sox before the 2011 season. That I'm already discussing them -- with the Sox about to face the Yankees for a meaningless regular-season series in NY -- illustrates what a disappointment the 2010 season was.

At this moment, it appears it'll be hard for the Sox to juggle all the changes and add enough top players to ensure a much better year in 2011 than was 2010. It may be another "bridge" year, although Theo Epstein will never admit it.

Theo Epstein's Luck Has Let Him Off the Hook

2010-08-28T08:21:00.000-07:00

Why has Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein been so let off the hook about the failings of the Red Sox 2010 season?

Yeah, yeah, I've heard 100 times about the team suffering a rash of injuries that made it hard to make the playoffs. Yes, it's indisputable that the high number of injuries significantly reduced the team's chances. Just having Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, two of the Sox' key players, out with season-ending injuries, has been huge. And, yes, I know the sub-par performance of certain players is out of Theo's control.

But, let's be clear: Beyond the injuries, there were large gaps and flaws about the 2010 Sox in spring training, and new problems that emerged during the year, and, Epstein, in many ways, did little to address these problems. Indeed, if you look at the "big picture" of the 2010 season, Epstein has played a large, overlooked role in each phase of this disappointing season. First, during the off-season, Theo made his infamous remark - whether he was taken out of context or not - that he saw 2010 as a "bridge" year to the future. It's been hard not to think back to that remark because, ever since then, Theo and Company have made NO significant moves to improve this team's chances to win, thus reinforcing that perhaps they did view 2010 as a "transition." Theo was suddenly talking about how the team's better defense would bring more "run prevention"- a concept that many baseball writers and fans saw as a meaningless attempt to distract us from the team's lack of hitting.

Before spring training and after choosing to not re-sign Jason Bay, Theo chose to not add any new big hitters to the Red Sox lineup, which, if we all recall, was glaringly weak against the Los Angeles Angels in the 2009 ALDS. (The Sox got swept, remember?) Some baseball pundits (myself included!) thought the Sox needed to sign two new good hitters in the off-season - not just a replacement for Bay. Then, Theo signed Mike Cameron, an older player - past his prime - and gushed about how much Cameron would help the team's fielding from centerfield. As it turned out, Cameron fielded poorly from the start, and, we learned quickly, his season would be limited by a serious adominal injury. Also, Theo signed Jeremy Hermida, a reservie outfielder who had shown flashes of hitting talent, but, Hermida ended up contributing little.

Perhaps most importantly, Theo and Company signed pitcher John Lackey to a huge contract and third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal. Lackey, as it turned out, didn't pitch well most of the year. (He was average, at best) As of today (Sept..1st) Lackey has given up more hits than most starting pitchers in the American League --- not what you want from a supposed front-line pitcher you signed to an $80 million deal. I have a different take on Lackey than many. I think the Sox definitely overpaid him; however, when I watched Lackey perform at the end of 2009, he looked quite good. His fastball had movement and his curve was terrific. Well, guess what? While virtually no Boston baseball writers have pointed it out, Lackey's fastball has been subpar for almost this entire 2010 season. It has lacked movement, and, often, been hittable......but, my point here is that I don't "blame" Theo for much of that. He couldn't foresee that. I do worry that Lackey, with much "wear and tear" on his arm, may simply be declining and the drop in his movement may be a first key sign.

Let's consider Beltre separately. This is the move - more than any other - that has let Theo "off the hook" for 2010. Beltre has been outstanding - far beyond anyone's expectations - THE best, most consistent hitter on the Red Sox. There is NO way Theo Epstein expected Beltre to perform THIS well! Well, perhaps we should ponder the state of affairs if Beltre had had a more "typical" season for him -- meaning "average." You can bet one thing: The Red Sox would have lost at least a handful of more games than they have so far --- They'd have been a considerably worse team that likely would have dropped out of contention earlier in the summer. Beltre has carried this Sox team for stretches. My point is that if Beltre had not overachieved, Theo's lack of moves to bolster the team's hitting would have been far more exposed,and, he might have been held more accountable.

Beyond that, Epstein opted to have David Ortiz return, and, after a horrendous start, Ortiz has, to the surprise of many (including me) been a fairly good designated hitter most of the season. Did Theo expect that? I think, in fact, Theo and most of us, really didn't know what Ortiz would do; in fact, Ortiz couldn't hit the ball in spring training, if you recall. So,, again, Theo got lucky. Had Ortiz declined badly - which he very well might have - Theo would have looked much worse.

Staying on the theme of Theo's pure luck, a few of the minor-league players called up - like Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava - performed better than expected for a while. Each thrilling game-winning hits at one point, and, again, fans were distracted fom focusing on the mediocrity of the team. Also, while some local writers have pointedly praised reserve player Billy Hall, Hall, in fact, is not a very good player. Yes, he hit some home runs that helped, and, yes, he played many positions, but, his fielding was poor quite often, and, more times than not, he was easy for good pitchers to get out.

Then, there's the case of one J.D. Drew, who, for whatever reason, seems to inspire Theo to have delusional thinking. Year after year now, Drew has had the same kind of "average" years, but he has not come close to earning his $14 million salary - which remains the highest salary for any position player on the team. Yes, he's a good fielder. Yes, he's got a good eye -- but, yes, he also hits into more weak groundball outs to the second baseman than almost anyone I've ever seen! It's time for someone in the Sox' baseball operations staff, or, one of their executives, to look Theo in the eye and tell him "Drew simply isn't as good as you think - period. Stop your stubborn denial over this!

I'd love to see Drew traded, but, no other team will pay his salary. The other night, in the key game vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, when Drew made an outstanding catch of the foul ball to right field -- a ball he should have let drop to prevent a run --- it typified Drew's essence: He showed a flash of his athleticism and talent, but, ultimately, it didn't help the team. To me, Drew will always seem to be a player with more talent than he shows. I'll always appreciate his $14 million grand slam in the 2007 playoffs, but that has been about the sum of his contributions since.

Back to Theo: I'm harping on Drew because, for me, Drew symbolizes Theo's "Achilles heel" as a GM. Theo and his baseball ops crew are way too hung up on stats, and, OBP is a prime example. Theo doesn't seem to emphasize raw hitting power enough and he de-emphasizes the importance of players' ability to hit with men on base. He's too wary of pursuing big name "star" players, who, he must be reminded, became "stars" for a reason. Instead, he likes signing reclamation projects and less expensive players with "value." He doesn't emphasize character enough, sometimes. (Example: Beltre has proved to be a very tough, gritty player but Edgar Renteria was overwhelmed by the pressures of Boston and guys like Tony LaRussa predicted Renteria would have trouble here) Letting Johnny Damon walk and trying to replace him with Coco Crisp in centerfield comes to mind as another example of Theo overlooking the need to pay for raw talent (like Damon's) and individuals with the right "chemistry" for Boston.

Of course, Theo and the ownership group paid an enormous sum to Daisuke Matsuzaka, who, at this point, even I have to say, seems more of a mistake. Matsuzaka, in 2010, has done a bit better, but, he still is annoyingly erratic. I've been a big supporter of Daisuke, but, I wouldn't mind if the Sox tried to trade him in the off-season to a team on the west coast. Matsuzka has been inconsistent for too long now. Just when you think he's over his bad habits - like walking too many players - he does it again in a big game. Will Theo be able to admit his mistake and get something back for Daisuke before it's too late? Or, will he have too much pride and hang onto him out of some principle - or in order to get a bit more "value" out of him?

Theo Epstein, throughout this 2010 season, seemed to restrain his impulses to invest and spend money on adding resources and improving its chances. Unlike in many other seasons, when he made major acquisitions at the trading deadline, in 2010, Theo did virtually nothing this year. And, from the spring onward, Theo "accepted" that the Sox bullpen simply was deficient and much weaker. Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and Hideki Okajima had problems, early on, but, soon, we were all accepting that Daneil Bard and Jonathan Papelbon were the only reliable arms in the pen. Not acceptable.

In the recent all-pivotal series vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, a key moment emerged at the end of the Saturday night game. Clay Buchholz had pitched a beautiful game vs. Matt Garza of the Rays, who had also been superb. After Buchholz amd Felix Doubront both pitched the 8th inning and Bard pitched the 8th, manager Terry Francona brought in reliever Scott Atchison to pitch the 10th inning. The Rays hit a home run, and, in effect, ended the Red Sox season.

Why was Atchison even on the mound? Yes, you can disagree with Francona's decision to bring him in, but Francona has had tremendously limited options in his bullpen all season. Why? Because of Theo Epstein's decision to not invest in the bullpen because he didn't feel the 2010 season was worth investing too much in. Maybe fans would have gotten a more true picture of Epstein's role if he had come out to the mound escorting Scott Atchison Saturday night. He could have stood there when Atchison immediately gave up a home run.

Say what you want about the injuries to the 2010 Red Sox, but, they still had a good pitching staff - at least one that appeared to have more potential than it did. When a team has five good starters in its rotation, one can always argue that its GM should try hard to "go for it" because it's rare to have circumstances and luck result in such a deep rotation.

In 2010, Theo Epstein seemed to believe that, despite its rotation, the Red Sox had only a limited, small chance of winning it all. That's OK. I can accept that. I'm a bit tired, however, of everyone acting like if it weren't for the injuries, the Red Sox would have had an unstoppable team. They were flawed from the start, and Epstein played a big part in that.

Watching the End of the 2010 Season

2010-08-20T09:18:00.000-07:00

I had looked forward to atttending my first game of the Red Sox 2010 season at Fenway Park on Thursday night, August 19th. The Sox were playing their last game vs. the Los Angeles Angels, a team that has fallen into mediocrity in 2010. In fact, the Sox, at gametime, were 9-0 vs. the Angels in 2010.

As it turned out, when I left Fenway later, I felt I had witnessed the end of the season. The game included several familiar themes: Josh Beckett pitched poorly and had some of his fastballs knocked around. The Red Sox could not hit at all against a good pitcher, Ervin Santana. The Sox bullpen performed poorly too.

Overall, it was a bit boring and discouraging to watch the Red Sox Thursday. Yes, they're less exciting without the injured Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in the lineup. Yet, despite that, the team still lacks "punch" or electricity. Adrian Beltre was the only hitter who got me extra curious from my seat in close proximity to home plate.

The dynamic of the game was all too familiar to many others in 2010: The Sox fell behind by a few runs and you just didn't feel very confident they could mount a comeback. This has been a year when everything has seemed to depend on the starting pitching - and, besides Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester - the starting pitching has come up short.

Beckett has had a terrible year. Yes, he was on the disabled list for close to two months, but, when he returned, he displayed the same weaknesses he's experienced during much of his tenure on the Sox. He has failed to locate his fastball well and this has hurt him tremendously because he throws his fastball so, so often. (too often!) He's often left his heater too much down the middle and paid the price. Also, Beckett has often been unable to get his curveball over the plate; in fact, he seems to not even use his curveball as much as in the past. On Thursday night, he barely threw his curve until his last inning or two. He also still doesn't throw his changeup very often. Granted, it's not a high-quality change-up, but, it still could help keep hitters off balance.

Right now, Beckett is an "average" pitcher who the Red Sox treated like a "star" by giving him a big, four-year contract extension back in the spring. He's earning $12 million a year now, but that amount goes up during the contract time, I believe. It seems, now, anyway, that the Red Sox and GM Theo Epstein made a serious mistake to sign Beckett before they had to. His old contract was due to expire at the end of this season, and, certainly, his abysmal performance in 2010 would have impacted Epstein's thinking about re-signing him. I, for one, advocated that that Sox should wait until the end of this season to decide on whether to re-sign Beckett, but, the vast majority of baseball writers in this area recommended locking Beckett up for years.

The Red Sox also, of course, just signed John Lackey to a long-term, expensive contract, and, he, like Beckett, is pitching way below expectations. Lackey has given up more hits than almost all pitchers in the American League in 2010. His won-loss record is very misleading; he has received terrific run support and gotten some key breaks to win games he would have otherwise lost. All season, the key to Lackey's mediocrity has been the lack of movement on his fastball. For some reason, his fastball, also a key pitch in his arsenal, has lacked the same zip it has had in the past. The result has been that often when Lackey has left fastballs around the strike zone, opposing hitters have smacked them all over the park.

So, Beckett and Lackey, two likely fixtures in the rotation for the next few years, have been disappointing not only in 2010, but, because they've shown troubling tendencies that might be difficult to reverse in the future. I suppose the only consolation here is that both these guys seem to love winning and have some "fight" and motivation to work on improving their mechanics so they can return to winning ways.

The Sox simply don't have the talent to keep up with the Tampa Bay Rays or the NY Yankees for the weeks remaining in the season. The team has had an extraordinary number of injuries and the injuries alone probably would have kept them from competing in the playoffs. When you then factor in the poor performances of Beckett, Lackey and others, it's been amazing the Sox have done as well as they have.

The question now is: Will the Red Sox make some significant moves to improve the team for 2011? The team didn't do much to avoid some of the likely problems of 2010 (such as the bullpen and gaps in the hitting lineup) It would seem they'd feel some pressure to shake things up and add a few talented players for next season.

There are so many other problems facing the Sox:

Manny Delcarmen seems to have lost his effectiveness. Perhaps it's related to past injuries, but, unless he can find solutions to his serious problems, he should not be allowed a slot in the bullpen in 2011.
Hideki Okajima also just lost his way this season. Injuries seemed a more likely explanation for his troubles, but, it's unclear if he can return to his terrific form in 2007 or even 2008.
Jonathan Papelbon must find a way to get the old zip back in his fastball, or, he will continue to decline. His salary has slowly risen as a result of his choosing to submit to the arbitration process, and, now, he earns more than the quality of his pitching. It's unclear Papelbon can get back his "giddy-up," but, it appears he'll only remain on the team one more season (2011) at best. He may be traded in the upcoming offseason.
The lack of other good relief pitchers: The Sox should not be relying on guys like Scott Atchison, Dustin Richardson or Michael Bowden. Atchison has had a few good outings, but a number of lousy ones too. Bowden is a kid who needs more work in the minors. I ask anyone: Would these three show up in the Yankee bullpen? No way.
The Red Sox must decide what they want to do with Jacoby Ellsbury. The relationship between Ellsbury and the Sox may now be too damaged to repair. I don't think Ellsbury is a good enough hitter to worry too much about losing, anyway, but, either way, the Sox need to regain the trust of Ellsbury and vice versa.
Regarding JD Drew, I guess the only thing they can do is wait for his giant mistake of a contract to end, but, what a Big Mistake it was for Theo to ever sign this guy! Drew has had an even more disappointing year than his past few - but I barely have noticed the difference. He just doesn't do enough to help the team - period. He grounds to the second-baseman constantly. He takes too many pitches. He chokes in the clutch. He just isn' that good. I can't wait for this guy to leave this team!
The Sox have a very tough decision on whether to keep David Ortiz, whose contract expires at the end of this season. The Sox have an option to bring Ortiz back for one year, but he wants to sign a deal for more than one year. I love Big Papi, but, I have to say I think the time has probably come to cut ties with him. He's getting a bit older, and, despite having a decent year, his skills are more limited. He doesn't deserve 12 million a year any longer. This one is very hard because of Papi's incredibly huge role in bringing the 2004 title to Boston after 86 years, but, maybe, it's time to start a new chapter without him. Put it this way: I'd keep Ortiz only if he meets the Sox half way - and accepts a shorter deal.
The Sox must decide whether to bring back Beltre. All season, all the baseball writers assumed the team would never pay Beltre for a new deal after 2010. Now, it doesn't seem such a sure thing because Beltre has excelled at Fenway. He carried the team this year. If Beltre and his agent, Scott Boras, can be a bit reasonable and compromise, I'd consider keeping him......but, will Boras accept anything but a giant salary after Beltre's year? Not likely........leaving the Sox without a third baseman, and, without his superb hitting.
The Sox should find a way to let go of Tim Wakefield once and for all. He can't pitch that well anymore and he also can't stay healthy. The Sox need to cut ties with Wake.

The list goes on and on. In the end, however, I'll always think back on the 2010 season as a "bridge year" -- just as Theo Epstein clumsily labled it last winter. It seemed like a wasted, lost season in many ways. Like a season the team was simply waiting to end. Maybe, in a strange way, it was better to have all the injuries come during a year the team didn't expect to win it all.

Can Papelbon Get His Giddy-Up Back?

2010-08-12T07:05:00.000-07:00

(Note: This marks my re-activation of this Red Sox blog after nearly a year of my posting on another baseball blog called "Cub Fan, Hub Fan." On that blog, which I shared with a Chicago Cubs fan, I wrote the same commentary and analysis of the Red Sox that I did here in 2009. My goal, again, is to focus on aspects of the Red Sox that often go uncovered by the mainstream press).

Last year, throughout the Red Sox' 2009 season, I raised questions about the performance of Jonathan Papelbon, who has been the team's outstanding closer since 2006. I noticed, early on, that Papelbon's fastball lacked some of its old "late life" or "giddy-up" that has always made Papelbon so effective. I wrote about how Papelbon was, apparently, trying a new motion to preserve his arm strength. As the season progressed, I noticed - like many fans - that hitters fouled off far more pitches vs. Papelbon and that he often threw strikes that caught too much of the plate. But, I also pointed out that Papelbon's success appeared dependent on whether or not his fastball had "giddy-up" during a particular outing. I recalled that in Papelbon's earlier years, his location didn't matter as much because his fastball was so explosive that many hitters simply couldn't touch it. (My guess is I wrote more about Papelbon's loss of late movement on his fastball than almost any of the many Sox bloggers all over Red Sox Nation).

In the last game of the season, Papelbon blew Game 3 of the ALDS vs. the LA Angels of Anaheim and I, for one, was not that surprised because of his erratic ability to generate sufficient movement on his heater.

Now, in 2010, it has been the same storyline: For much of the season, Papelbon's fastball has lacked the old "late life" and he has been far more hittable than usual. Yet, Boston's baseball writers have spent very little time or space trying to point out the obvious about the deterioration in Papelbon's fastball. They keep writing: "What's wrong with Papelbon?" as if it's a mystery. They don't appear interested in observing or sharing what they see on the mound, or, perhaps they don't even pay enough attention to notice the differences.

Yesterday, on Aug. 12 of the 2010 season, Papelbon had one of his most disastrous outings when he blew his sixth save against the Toronto Blue Jays. Again, his fastball - while reaching speeds of 98 or 99 mph on the radar gun, was very hittable. Yes, part of Papelbon's problem was a lack of command: He left most of his pitches up in the zone. But, the bigger problem was his fastball lacked "giddy-up" and Toronto's hitters had no trouble whacking the ball.

Beginning yesterday and continuing in this morning's Aug. 13th newspapers, the coverage of Papelbon has focused on his unusual string of blown saves and overall decline, but, it has not focused on the key explanation for his troubles on the mound. It is all about the loss of movement on his fastball.

And, it could be an even more serious problem than the Red Sox have admitted thus far.

Think about it: First, in the past - like back in the 2008 season, for instance, my guess is that Papelbon would, in some outings, have better movement on his fastball than in others, but, overall, he had enough "late life" to continue to dominate hitters much of the time. In the 2009 season, Papelbon couldn't always throw the ball with "late life" and he had to work much harder to close out games. He walked more hitters. Often, they fouled off pitches that they used to swing and miss at. Now, in a further deterioration, Papelbon is often, again, unable to find the "late life" on his fastball, but, this season, he's experienced the problem in some big games and blown six games -- more than in any other season.

Can Papelbon get his old fastball back? It remains unclear. Even in recent weeks, there have been a few occasions when Papelbon HAS thrown the ball hard - with movement - and looked like his old self. But there have been other mediocre appearances and some awful ones too.

It seems to me that Papelbon has been going through a transition. Sometime before the 2009 season, he began pitching in a new motion aimed at sustaining his arm strength for the duration of the season. Why? While the Red Sox didn't seem eager to discuss the details of Papelbon's arm condition, they spoke about his goal of staying strong. Yet, later in 2009, I recall Papelbon saying, on one occasion, something to the effect that because he had pitched with that more "leg-driven" motion, he felt he could "let loose a bit more then. I noticed, he pitched several games with more of his old "giddy-up" than previously in 2009. Later, in the playoffs, he struggled again, but, I wondered what was going on with his arm.

I still wonder about Papelbon's arm. Is he more fragile than we think? I've vaguely noticed, a few times, that it seems sometimes when he gets the best "late life" on his heater, he's throwing the ball as if he's using more of his arm. I cannot explain it in detail, but the important part is that I think Papelbon varies his motion a bit when he wants to try more desparately to bring more movement.

Why am I writing about all these details? Because Papelbon is at a crossroads now with the team - and, it's coinciding with the team clinging on to slim hopes of still earning a wild card playoff berth. Baseball writers and fans are questioning Papelbon more than ever before. Some wonder if setup pitcher Daniel Bard should replace Pap as the closer. Many are speculating that Papelbon may be traded in the offseason because he'll become eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and the Red Sox might be unlikely to pay him the salary he demands.

At the moment, Papelbon, undoubtedly, is focusing more on his day-to-day pitching than his future. He must try hard to keep his confidence up despite the cumulative struggles.

By the time the season is over, I hope that one of the talented Boston baseball writers will tell us more of the whole story of what's been going on with Jonathan Papelbon. It's inexcusable to hear Boston sportswriters simply dwell on Papelbon's bad outcomes without providing any reporting on the actual reasons for the changes in his pitching.

It's not impossible for baseball writers to talk to enough players, coaches, pitchers - on or off-the-record - to get more comments on Papelbon's status. And it's surely not possible for reporters to pay more attention to what's happening when he's on the mound.

Papelbon has been the best closer I recall ever seeing in Boston. At his best, he's been close to "a sure thing" in the 9th inning, confidently blowing the ball by the best hitters in baseball. I don't think he's "done" all of a sudden, but, maybe he needs to rest his arm. I don't know. What I do know is that I expect more of an explanation from Boston baseball writers.

Can Papelbon get his "giddy-up" back? It's a simple question that no one seems able to answer as the 2010 season winds down.

Sox Playoff Performance Reflected Season-long Flaws

2009-10-11T21:33:00.000-07:00

In the end, the Red Sox playoff performance in 2009 should not have shocked even many Boston fans - if they were paying attention all season.

The Sox got swept by the Angels after many baseball pundits had projected the Sox to win. A disturbing number of writers cited the Sox past success against the Angels in the playoffs as a main reason they'd triumph again. Virtually every baseball account of Game Three, when the Angels rallied from behind against Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, described that as "shocking" or put it in a similar context. While I was completely surprised Papelbon gave it all up, I was not shocked by even that sequence. Why? Because, for a good part of the season, I watched Papelbon struggle to get through his outings when he was often unable to finish off hitters - from all parts of the opposing team's lineup. (See my earlier blogs on Papelbon) In some of his "bad" games, he'd give up a hit or two, a walk, and a couple of line-drive outs, and then, somehow - whether due to an adrenalin rush or more intense focus or some magic -- he'd excape from the outing without yielding a run. My big point is that Papelbon has not been himself much of the year. What's baffling is that in the last weeks of the season, he pitched more consistently than before. Yet, when he kept throwing sub-par fastballs (for him) high in the strike zone to a few Angels' hitters, who basked the ball, it was familiar - in an eerie way - to me, and, I'm sure, other fans.

Now that 24 hours have passed and I've begun digesting that the season is really over, I'll give a list of my "first reactions" to this disappointing ALDS. (More to come)

The Red Sox will have to try to improve their weak, inconsistent hitting during the off-season. For the Sox to get only 8 hits and 1 run in the first two games was truly pathetic, but, we watched this team get shut down by good pitchers on many opposing teams - along with rookie pitchers they had never seen.
The Red Sox will have to keep in mind - as they look for new hitters - that this 2009 team hit poorly on the road for most of the year. They were SO, SO much better at home that this reflected their weakness (on rd.) more than strength at their hitter-friendly park.
They will also have to address a need for both "contact hitters" and "power hitters." They really miss the days of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, in their Gehrig-Ruth imitation, when they could hit anything in or out of the park. We realize more now, after a season and a half, that the LOSS of this duo in their prime has impacte the Sox whole lineup and how pitchers view it. Pitchers DO seem more relaxed against the Sox, don't they?
The Red Sox cannot ever view Josh Beckett the same way now. If he stays on the team, they will have to monitor him far more closely and plan proactively to help him avoid arm fatigue or injury. He has "broken down" significantly two seasons in a row and hurt the team's playoff chances each time. It's not clear what's going on with his arm. His arm appeared tired, to me, during the last two months. He couldn't throw his fastball as hard or with the same good command and his curveball became less effective or consistent.
The Red Sox management has to start acknowledging that yes, the Sox can win 95 games by feasting off the mediocre Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and other teams - and, still not have what it takes to go all the way. This 09 team illustrated the limits of baseball statistics; I kept hearing they scored more runs than most American League teams. So what? They racked up blowout scores vs. the lousy teams, but, often lost against the best teams.
I know Theo Epstein will never part with JD Drew, but, he should overcome his denial about Drew's value. In a recent radio interview, Theo went out of his way to assert Drew's statistics were pretty good, but he took things out of context. Theo should know better. If you watch the games, you know how many times Drew has been right on the edge of being able to keep a key rally going, but he often strikes out on a called strike or goes down in a feeble-looking at-bat -- despite all the natural talent he possesses. If Theo were consistent, he'd consider shopping Drew and trying to eat part of his contract because he's contributed far too little for a guy earning $13 million a year.
I wonder if David Ortiz will want to come back next year? I have an impulse that Ortiz and the Sox could come to some agreement - and, either he gets traded or something happens. I feel something unpredictable might happen with Big Papi. He was very unhappy with the press reaction to the steroid allegations against him even though it was relatively mild. I also am not sure Mike Lowell will return. Each have contracts extending through next year, but, each are veterans who may wanat to take some control of their destiny.
I think Jason Varitek should probably retire - and I think he may choose to, but, if he comes back, I hope he honestly expects he can be in radically reduced, different role and still contribute to the team. I have trouble imagining him in this role - as an occasional back-up catcher. My guess is the team and Varitek will agree on some kind of "buy-out" of his option, which would pay him $3 million for 2010.
Clay Buchholz absolutely - without any question - MUST be in the starting rotation in April. He's fully earned it and if he were left out of the rotation, I would not blame him for asking for a trade.
Daisuke Matsuzaka's role doesn't seem as "definite" as one might think. First, he had a "forgottten season" in 2009, spending most of it getting in shape before returning for a few starts only to find out that he would not get a start in the ALDS. The team chose to pitch Buhcholz in Game Three and were prepared to pitch Lester on three days rest in Game Four. That's not a vote of confidence for Daisuke. I can imagine Dice-K returning, but I also will not be shocked if the Sox try to trade him.

Angels Shut Down Sox Bats Again; Beckett's Best Is Not Enough

2009-10-10T14:32:00.000-07:00

Limited Hitting Skills Haunt Sox Vs. Angels

The Red Sox hitters have saved their worst for last. In the first two games of the ALDS vs. the Angels, they've barely gotten wood on the ball.

Angel pitchers John Lackey and Jered Weaver, on consecutive nights, each limited the Red Sox to only four hits. In Game One, the Angels won 5 - 0. In Game Two, it was 4 -1.

This weak hitting against first-rate pitching has plagued the Red Sox all season. When they struggle against quality pitching, they really struggle. Their display in the playoffs has been particularly pitiful given that it counts more.

It's clear the Sox have to make moves in the off-season to shore up their line-up. Their lack of "contact hitters" has hurt them all year, and it's killing them against the Angels. When facing tough pitching, the need for hitters to simply make contact and poke a few singles - however they can - is essential. The Sox have only two or three hitters who are half-decent or better at hitting a variety of pitches for contact: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez. David Ortiz can't make contact well anymore; when he hits, it's usually a double or home run, it seems. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell can be pitched to, especially with breaking pitches. JD Drew is simply too erratic. Jacoby Ellsbury, while improved at making contact, still has a long way to go. Alex Gonzalez is a weak, poor contact hitter.

So, as depressing as it is, the Sox performance vs. the Angels feels like a negative culmination of trends all summer. Of course, they could mount a comeback, but the chances are REMOTE.

Beckett Did Well for Six Innings, then His Problems Re-appeared - BADLY

Josh Beckett did better than I predicted last night - but, he still didn't look right. His fastball was at a lower velocity and he didn't even throw his curveball often. Somehow, relying on guile and experience, he gutted it out and survived six innings, surrendering only three hits.

Frankly, I don't know how Beckett did it. I missed watching the first three innings while WTBS covered the Yankees-Twins game. From what I saw, he had much better control of his fastball than in recent outings. My guess was that he had to keep his velocity down in order to get the kind of good commant necessary to pitch in his sub-par state. I give Beckett credit for finding a way to make the best of a bad situation.

Yet, with the score, amazingly, still tied 1 -1 going into the Angels' bottom half of the 7th, I thought Terry Francona probably should've taken Beckett out of the game, given his recent struggles and the limitations in his approach all night.

Beckett walked the first batter in the 7th, but, it wasn't just any hitter. It was Vladimir Guerrero, who NEVER walks and is the biggest "free swinger" in baseball. This was a BAD sign, and, should've further prompted Francona to prepare to remove Beckett. Instead, Beckett ran the count to 3 -0 on Kendry Morales before he got him to fly out to left field. Howie Kendrick, who pinch ran, stole second. Juan Rivera grounded out, but, then Maicer Izturis singled to center to knock in the go-ahead run, as the Angels now led 2 -1. Now, I figured, it was clearly time to get a relief pitcher in there......but, NO........Francona left Beckett in. Beckett, by now, looked tired and not up to the task. He then hit Mike Napoli with a pitch and got angry that Napoli didn't try to avoid it. Next, Beckett threw a fastball (meatball) down the middle to Aybar, who tripled to center, knocking in two more runs, to make the score 4 - 1. Finally, Billy Wagner came in to relieve Beckett and record the last out in the 7th.

This morning, most media reports on the game stayed away from discussing Beckett. Most mentioned him doing well until the 7th, but, Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, seemed to share some of my perspective when he cited how Beckett pitched with less in his arsenal, and, then, things fell apart for him in an uncharacteristically in the 7th:

McAdam wrote:

"..The Beckett on display in the seventh inning was a poor imitation of the Beckett from 2007. He labored through 28 pitches, showed shaky command (one walk, one hit batter) and was finally done in by a booming triple to center by Erick Aybar, the Angels' No. 9 hitter....."

"...And, there was this: Beckett's fastball lacked its usual bite most of last night, but particularly in the seventh when the Sox' post-season hung in the balance. He couldn't finish off hitters and didn't get many swings and misses.
His fastball, once reliably a mid-90s weapon to go with a knee-buckling curve, seldom topped 91-92 mph last night. At times, he threw fastballs at 89 mph a tick above average....

Then, McAdam recounted how Beckett had relied on guts to pitch in the 2008 playoffs, but given up 14 runs in 14 innings without making excuses.

"Is Beckett pitching hurt again this fall? That may be a matter of semantics....McAdam continued, before reporting Beckett's denial, last Thursday, of any physical problems.

It's hard to know exactly how Beckett's condition impacted Game Two, or, beyond that, the team's preparation for the playoffs. If the Sox comeback and force a Game 5, there is a chance Beckett may pitch again.
Even beyond the 2009 playoffs, however, it seems the Red Sox, from this point on, should reconsider how they monitor Beckett's pitching in future years to prevent physical problems from emerging again right before the playoffs.

Sox Go Into Critical Game Two With Beckett Off His Game

2009-10-09T17:26:00.000-07:00

Josh Beckett and the Red Sox are still maintaining that there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett as he prepares to start in tonight's all-important Game Two of the ALDS against the Angels.
The Sox lost Game One last night, and, if they lose tonight, they'd face an incredibly difficult task of winning three in a row with Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka slated for Games 3 and 4.

"There's no issues physically at all," Beckett told the Boston Globe in Amalie Benjamin's article from Anaheim in the Oct. 9th edition.

Beckett had back spasms before his second-to-last start of the season and received three cortisone injections in his back before his last start, when he was pitched quite poorly for part of the game and a bit better in his last few innings.
After pitching superbly for a lengthy stretch earlier in the season, Beckett suddenly became less and less effective in August and September. Both his fastball and curve were not as effective as the season winded down, and, his fastball command got worse over time. His starts raised questions until, finally - when the Sox discussed Beckett's back problems, it appeared we had the explanation for at least some of his struggles. Yet, even after the cortisone shots, Beckett still didn't look right.
In any event, the Red Sox and Beckett have claimed he's fine now. The Sox organization, in essence, is claiming that a large part of Beckett's pitching problems has been due to flaws in his pitching mechanics, or, issues unrelated to health or fatigue.
I sense the explanation given by Beckett and the Red Sox is neither complete or accurate. I think Beckett's health and condition might take on more significance after tonight's game is over.
I've witnessed what everyone has: That Beckett has not been himself at all for nearly two months. My own belief is that he has a tired arm and that's why he's been unable to throw his fastball with the normal zip or location. He has a history of pitching better with a bit more rest, in general.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Beckett is able to overcome his physical limitations tonight. I'll be amazed if he makes it to the seventh inning tonight, or, even, if he pitches a very good six innings. I hope I'm wrong.
I want to illustrate my point by sharing an exchange I had today - when I submitted a question to Boston Globe baseball reporter Adam Kilgore during Kilgore's a public "chat" with readers no the Globe's online site, Boston.com
I submitted a short question, like many fans, and Kilgore posted a brief reply during the "chat" - featured on Boston.com's website.

I wrote:

"Adam, I don't understand why you and other Boston baseball writers are not acknowledging the likelihood that Beckett is suffering from arm fatigue. He's pitched sub-par for nearly two months and signs suggest he does wear down at end of seasons."

Adam Kilgore replied to me, during the "chat session:

"Trust me, myself and other baseball writers have asked the right people about Beckett's issues and they've all said no, any issues are mechanical. If I started writing what you want me to, I'd be making it up. Also, for the record, over the past two months, Beckett is 5-2 with a 4.60 ERA and a .265 average against.

There it is: If Kilgore's characterization is true, it makes the incongruence between Beckett's performances and the Red Sox' explanation even more mysterious.

I recall we went through a somewhat similar circumstance last year. Beckett was suffering from an oblique injury heading into the 2008 playoffs, and, struggled badly in a few starts, but the team kept maintaining that he'd somehow be able to perform. As time passed, I wondered why he was even pitching. He was in bad shape - a shell of himself.

I hope Beckett pitches a gem tonight. If he does, all signs suggest it'll be a tremendous reversal of difficulties related to arm fatigue or an unknown injury that've hindered him for nearly two months. The facts and the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Could Beckett Hurt the Sox in Playoffs Again?

2009-10-04T19:45:00.000-07:00

The signs look bad for Josh Beckett's potential to shine in the playoffs. In his last, regular-season start on Saturday, Beckett could have reassured Red Sox Nation by simply throwing his fastball with his usual sharp command. Instead, Beckett could not locate his fastball AT ALL in the first few innings. He was BAD. If he'd been pitching against the Yankees, he might've been knocked out the game, but, because it was the Indians, he wiggled his way out of things without more damage. Yet, for Beckett, you have to wonder when he's going to get his fastball command back. He's been pitching in sub-par fashion for nearly two months now -- with some outings far worse than others, but none at the high calibre of the great stretch he had earlier in the summer.
Beckett improved somewhat in his last couple of innings, but, overall, it was a mediocre outing.

It's impossible to know what's going on with Beckett and the mystery is heightened by his "John Wayne" tendencies when it comes to not admitting when he's hurt. My own guess, for a while now, is that Beckett has been tired in recent weeks -- that his arm is fatgued and that he should have been rested. Evidence suggested that. Beckett has never thrown as many innings as he has this season, and, he always pitches better when on 5 days rest rather than 4 -- and there are more facts that back up this theory. In any event, now, we all have to just hope that another five days gives Beckett a little extra strength to pitch more like his old self in Game Two vs the Angels. I don't think he's going to be able to get back to his old form, however. I think he's really tired, and, probably would benefit from shutting it down for the season now.

I hope I'm wrong. In other developments: Buchholz pitched his second lousy game in a row today - the last day of the season, so, he, too, is cause for worry. Who knows if he can stay poised on the mound in Game 3, especially after he runs into a jam? He's been better about losing his poise in recent weeks, but, his most recent two starts make you wonder if playoff regression is possible.

All in all, I just don't think this is the Red Sox year - and I think the Angels will in. Before, I guessed in five games, but, my revision now is that it could be in any combination -- I just think the Angels's superiority will guide them to beating the Sox this time.

Denial Dominates Wait for the ALDS

2009-10-01T05:33:00.000-07:00

God, I can't take it anymore. Every day, I hear sports radio talk show hosts and Boston baseball writers talk about the 2009 Red Sox in inflated terms. Everyone here is predicting an easy win for the Red Sox when they face the Angels in the first round of the playoffs next week.
I doubt I'll hear a single sportswriter pick the Angels before the series next week.

Why? Well, that's what's amazing: Nobody offers good reasons, when, in fact, one can make just as strong a case for the Angels winning. The Angels, like the Sox, are one of the elite teams in baseball, but, many Sox fans disregard the strength of the 2009 Angels' hitting lineup, including, for example, Torre Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales and Chone Figgins, who is always stealing bases and distracting pitchers. At one point this season, I think almost the entire Angels' lineup was hitting over .300.

The Angels took the season series with the Red Sox 5 -4 in games. The Angels pitching rotation is back to normal with John Lackey and Ervin Santana over injuries. The Angels' speed on the bases is likely to cause big trouble for Sox pitchers and catchers, who have proven to be among the worst in baseball at preventing stolen bases.

Despite all this, baseball writers and fans have repeated the flawed, thoughtless argument that because the Red Sox have beaten the Angels in the ALDS playoffs three times in recent years, they simply have the Angels' number. Of course, each season, the two teams have had very different hitting lineups and pitchers, but, that doesn't stop the silly home bias.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox go into the playoffs with major question marks. The biggest is the status of Josh Beckett, who hasn't pitched in top form for the better part of two months. He recently missed a start due to back spasms that were serious enough to prompt the team to give him cortisone shots to improve his condition. For Beckett to succeed against the Angels, and, particularly, the Yankees, he must be at the top of his game. On the plus side, Jon Lester seemed fine tonight - in his first start after being hit in the knee last week - and got his 15th win.
While Clay Buchholz has pitched superbly for a number of starts, his most recent bad outing was a reminder that he's not a sure thing in his first playoff start. Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not repeat his last terrific start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Hideki Okajima has pitched poorly in recent weeks and who knows if he'll snap out of that funk? Manny Delcarmen has been so bad lately that he really shouldn't be used at all. Daniel Bard has given up loud hits lately. Ramon Ramirez has been erratic.
Other players are peaking at the right time. Jonathan Papelbon looked sharp tonight and has thrown more consistently - with better location - for about a month now. Jason Bay has been belting the ball lately. Big Papi has hit more doubles and homer runs lately. Victor Martinez has hit well during his entire time with the team.

In the end, I feel it's harder to predict the performance of this 09 edition of the Sox than other teams in the past decade. If I have to guess who will win the ADLS now, I'd probably pick the Angels in 5.

Red Sox, Despite Denial of Media and Fans, Are Overmatched by Yankees - Period

2009-09-26T19:26:00.000-07:00

I cannot understand why so many Red Sox fans are in denial about the limitations of this team - when compared directly to the 2009 New York Yankees. I see the Red Sox as one of the better teams in baseball, but, they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to the Yankees right now. Not even close.

All one has to do is watch the teams' head-to-head games. It's not a fluke that the Yanks have won nine of the last ten games vs. the Red Sox. They're simply much better. Earlier in the year, when the Sox won eight in a row vs. the Yanks, that Yankee team was more flawed and missing A-Rod for a chunk of that period. Now, it's painful to watch these old rivals play because the dynamic - instead of being close and competitive and suspenseful - has evolved into a mismatch over the past few months. The Yanks, with Phil Hughes excelling as their setup man and C.C. Sabathia being an incredibly consistent ACE for most of the year and seven or eight players hitting 20 homes runs or more - and on - and on, have the best team in all of baseball - and, clearly the big favorites to win the World Series.

So, why do fans and writers around Boston persist in a state of mass denial about the mismatch between the Yanks and the Sox? Why do they come up with arguments and theories that amount to poppycock about how the Sox pitchers are SO, SO much better than the Yankee pitchers even though, in recent series, most of the Yankee pitchers have simply outperformed our pitchers? Why do they pretend not to see the enormous gap in talent between the Yankee hitters and the Red Sox hitters? The Yankee lineup can consistently score runs against good pitchers while the Red Sox have often been shut down by an array of "average" pitchers - including rookies - this year. The baseball writers and fans here have held on to this parochial, narrow-minded, naieve view that the Sox are equal to the Yanks - even if the stats and what one sees on the field shows that is false.
I wish all this were not so. I hate the Yankees and I'm sick of everything about them, including all the credit they get for simply having an All-Star team that plays like All-Stars --- but, this year, it's going to take some outstanding pitching by some team to stop this Yankee juggernaut. Maybe the Angels could do it with pitching, hitting and a lot of steals. Maybe the Phillies could get pitching and have hitting that keeps them close enough to win.

The only way the Red Sox have a chance vs. the Yanks - if they face them in the ACLS again - is with near-perferct pitching from Jon Lester and Josh Beckett - with one great game from Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka mixed in. However, Beckett, unfortunately, has not been in top form for the past month and a half. His mechanics got messed up (or he has secret injury)and he's much more hittable. Meanwhile, after a line drive hit Lester in the knee on Friday, Sept. 25th, he may be impacted negatively somehow by the opening of the playoffs, although the signs are good. The point is the Yankees' hitting line-up is historically top-notch. It is even more of a powerhouse than some of the other All-Star lineups the Bombers have fielded in recent years!
This means there is almost no margin of error when you play the Yankees, who, uncoincidentally, are about to win their 100th game any day now.
The Red Sox, by contrast, has often featured Jason Varitek, who's batting about .140 for the second half. And virtually all of our hitters - except Victor Martinez - are less consistent and more streaky than the Yanks. I won't go on illustrating it Any observer cannot deny the Yankees' hitting superiority. The Yanks, literally, do not have one weak hitter in their lineup!
What's amazing is how so many sportswriters and fans go to extraordinary lengths to explain how the two teams are virutally "equal" and to claim our pitching is so much better and our bullpen is better -- blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. C.C. Sabathia is the only ace who overwhelmingly shut down the other team twice in a row - which is what he just did by allowing only one hit today over seven innings after coming close to that domination in his previous win vs. the Sox. Beckett, meanwhile, has been erratic against the Yanks. Lester has been good, but, before he got hit by the line drive Friday night, and had half-decent stuff, he was still getting knocked around. The Yankees can win games multiple ways - as they did in the first two games of the current series against the Red Sox. The won the first 9 - 5 with hitting and good pitching and then today, they won with a masterpiece by Sabathia and not as much clutch hitting, 3-0.
I want the Red Sox to beat the Angels in the ADLS, but, while I'm watching, I know I'll have sort of ambivalent feelings. Why? I'll feel that the Angels have a better chance to beat the Yankees, who they did well against again in 2009, than the Red Sox will. I'm tired of watching an overmatched edition of the Yankees beat up on the Sox. It feels like going back in time to the late 1990s.
I just don't get why so many baseball writers and fans can call the Red Sox what they are against the Yankees: Big Underdogs. There's nothing wrong with being Underdogs. I'll root for them against the Angels - as underdogs against them too. And telling the truth about your team can be more therapeutic than living in fantasyland.

Sox Seem Focused on Winning --at the Right Time

2009-09-19T18:21:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox kept playing good, smart baseball as they swept the Orioles this weekend.
Yes, the Orioles stink, but, the Sox could have easily suffered a letdown coming into Camden Yards after the Angels series. Instead, the Red Sox seem to be playing with a bit more intensity and focus in recent days. The Sox finished with a 16 - 2 season record vs the Orioles.

Consider that in all three Orioles games, the Red Sox starters did not have their best stuff, but the team still did what they had to to win. On Friday night, Clay Buchholz showed that he can win a gam without being on his "A" game; in fact, Buchholz hasn't even experienced many games like that in his young career. His changeup, his "out" pitch, wasn't quite as sharp nor were his other pitches, but he kept his cool and pitched a solid six innings, giving the team a chance to win. On Saturday night, Jon Lester was definitely a bit off his game, (more than Buchholz was) ; as he gave up ten hits, he still limited the Orioles to only a few runs.
Then, today, though I didn't see it, apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn't as sharp as he was last week, but, he started well - striking out the side in the 1st - and kept things in check.

In one sequence I watched in Saturday's game, the Sox played some great "small ball." It started with Dustin Pedroia pushing the count full before getting a single; then Victor Martinez reached the bat way out way outside of the strike zone in order to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield in order to advance Pedroia. Then, Ortiz hit his second double of the night. Youkilis hit a high curve ball to knock in a run, and then, Lowell hit a clutch single to knock in another run. What was impressive was the quality of the at-bats; the hitters were working the count, really trying to make contact -- something that often has NOT happened this season.

Then, Billy Wagner came in, and, despite having trouble with his curve ball, according to Dennis Eckersley (I couldn't notice it as much) and pitched another scoreless inning. Wagner has been stellar so far.

Overall, it just seems the Red Sox are a much better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, and the other additions on the roster since Sept. 1st. Victor is the key.

Who knows? Maybe the Yankees will lose a few games on the West Coast this week while the Red Sox win - and, the Sox can enter their last series against the Yanks only three games out rather than six. (The Mariners are beating the Yankees 7-0 at the moment) Then, they can sweep the Yanks at Yankee Stadium and tie for the Division.....

OK, I just felt like expressing that fantasy......I do NOT think that will happen. I'll try to be content that the Sox are playing good ball as they head into the playoffs.

Red Sox Show Some Strength Against the Angels

2009-09-16T04:46:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox have looked like a better team recently, particularly in their recent series just completed tonight against the Angels. (Of course, the Rangers have virtually collapsed over the past week, making things a lot easier for the Sox in the wild card race).
I still don't share the sentiments of so many Boston media and fans who seem to feel the Sox will have such a big advantage against the Angels, who they'd likely meet in the first round of the playoffs. To me, it's ridicolous that so many people point to the Red Sox success in recent years vs. the Angels in the playoffs as the main "reason" they'd beat the 2009 Angels. Every year is different - and this year's Angel team is argubly more talented than the Red Sox. They have a better hitting lineup, for sure. Before this series, I thought the Angels would have a good-sized advantage against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Now, after seeing the two teams square off, I still give the Angels the edge, but, I have a bit more hope for the Sox.

Overall, the Sox Are Stronger
The most important thing: They got Daisuke Matsuzaka back as a starter Tuesday night. He looked great - and, could make a critical contribution down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Overall, I just feel it meant more for the Sox to win a series against one of the best teams in baseball. (I'm not counting their early 8-0 streak vs. the Yanks, who had a few players out, including A-Rod). The Sox won two out of three, defeating Angels' ace John Lackey, and, then, won a game started by another Angels stud pitcher, Joe Saunders.
There were all kinds of reasons to doubt Dice-K would make a quality start Tuesday. Dice-K has missed most of the season. He left the team due to fatigue in his shoulder, and, later the team indicated that he needed to get in shape, and, basically, have a whole new version of "spring training." Matsuzaka had pitched only a few rehab starts in the minor leagues, and he had not performed that convincingly.
Well, you could see that Matsuzaka was "different" from the outset because his fastball was moving again. In fact, I don't think I've seen his fastball have that much zip - or, late life, on it since the 2007 season. He blew the ball by a few hitters with his heater at about 92 or 93 mph - but, with the "giddy-up," it seemed like the fastball was at 95.
Dice-K's control was better than usual. He seemed determined to pound the strike zone more and he suceeded. Even in his remarks after the game, Matsuzaka gave one a sense that he's on a mission to do well for the team after he feels he missed so much time.
The Sox hitting has been terrific during this homestand at Fenway - as it usually is. David Ortiz still looks inconsistent at the plate. He's not getting around on some fastballs and is too easily fooled by breaking pitches more often than he used to be; but, of course, he had these problems early in the season. The difference is that now, he'll have a few good games before sub-par games - and hit home runs and doubles in those.
The Sox have set up their bullpen so that, often, in winning games, they have Wagner in the 7th, Bard in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th. Bard has been more "mortal" in recent weeks, and given up some hits on occasion. Papelbon has been sharper and seemed to find some strength inexplicably in the past couple of weeks.
The one large cloud that had been hanging over the team was whether Beckett could get back to full strength. He had a few bad starts and I - like others - wondered if he needed some rest. His fastball lacked zip and he was frequently leaving it in the strike zone and his curve ball had lacked any good "bite" to it and was getting knocked around.
Michael Felger of the new "Sports Hub," radio show on 98.5 FM, has been commenting repeatedly that evidence in recent seasons demonstrates that Beckett tends to pitch a bit worse and get more vulnerable toward the end of the season -- when his season pitch count starts climbing. I totally agree with Felger. I thought it was stupid that Francona let Beckett go out to pitch the 8th inning tonight.
Felger has cited stats that show, convincingly, that when Beckett has gotten extra rest - in one of more of the past few seasons - the rest has helped him pitch better, including in the 2007 championship season.
Tonight, Beckett looked very good, but, he still was not at his very best. Angel batters hit a couple of his curves easily and his fastball, though decent all night, was a tiny bit lower in velocity -- often at about 93 mph when, in many outings this season, the speed has often been closer to 95 or 96 mph.
For the Sox to beat the Angels in the playoffs, Beckett, Ortiz and their teammates will have to play at their best in order to win. The Red Sox are the underdogs.

Sox Struggle to Break from Mediocrity - Before it's Too Late

2009-09-10T10:40:00.000-07:00

The 2009 season all seems to rest on whether Josh Beckett can regain his top form.
If he can, again, pitch at his best, the Red Sox have a chance to win games in the playoffs.
If he remains "limited" - whether due to problems in his pitching mechanics, fatigue or an unknown injury, most agree the Sox will go nowhere.
As for me, I agree on the need for Beckett's "A game," but, I strongly doubt the Sox will advance far in the playoffs even with that. Why? Their hitting is too weak against good pitching, and, if they make the playoffs, they'll face only opposing teams' best pitchers.

I agreed with a point made this week by Tony Massarotti on his new radio show: This 2009 Sox team has not proven they can perform well against good teams.
All you have to do is look up the Red Sox record vs. other teams with winning records in the American League, and, you'll find the discouraging results. Yes, the Red Sox still have a 9-6 edge against the Yankees with three games left between the teams, but, I know no fan who believes the current Sox are as good as the current Yanks. The Sox ran up their 8-0 initial lead in that series when the Yanks were dealing with injuries and other issues. Now, the Yanks are by far, the scariest team in baseball, heading toward 100 plus wins and with seven of their nine starting players already with at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter needs three to make that eight players. So, I think we can agree the Sox are not as good as the Yanks.
The Rays lead 9 - 6 in games vs the Sox with three games left. The Angels are 4 -2 vs the Sox with a three-game series coming up. The Rangers - their primary wild card opponent now - are 7 - 2 vs the Sox in 2009. The Mariners are 4 - 2 vs. the Sox. The Twins are 4-2 vs the Sox.
The only real exception is that the Red Sox went 6-1 vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers deteriorated into a bad team, so, that feat means little. The Red Sox couldn't manage more than a 4-4 split against the White Sox, who are a game below 500 as of Sept. 10th.

Now, yes, with Jon Lester pitching well and, possibly, a sharper Beckett, the Sox might surprise by advancing in the playoffs. They're a better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and an expanded roster. However, their hitting has often been average of below average against either teams' "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers OR many young pitchers they had never faced before.
The team desparately needs one consistent slugger in its lineup. (Manny and the Big Papi of years past are gone) Several of its decent hitters - whether Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or Jason Bay - have been inconsistent with men on base. JD Drew has performed poorly most of the year, until the past month or so. Jacoby Ellsbury has hit his peak recently, but will he continue that against top-notch pitchers in the playoffs.

I'm trying to keep hope alive, but, I know one thing: This Red Sox team will have to morph into a better, different team in order to do well in the playoffs -- if it makes the playoffs.

Can the Red Sox Peak at Just the Right Time?

2009-09-01T16:31:00.001-07:00

At the end of many baseball seasons, the teams that are playing their best sometime in the last four or six weeks often keep the momentum going right into the playoffs and give themselves a chance to win it all.
Are the 2009 Red Sox one of those teams?
They haven't shown many signs of "getting on a hot streak" during this strange season. In fact, when one looks back, how often were the different components of the team -- starting pitchers, bullpen, hitters -- all performing well together? I cannot think of one time, really. On the contrary, I recall pitchers and hitters all going through ups and downs most of the year.
Very few players have been steady all year and it makes it hard to predict what will happen in September or beyond. One truth: The team has more strengths now - more good players on the roster - than at any other point. I say that mainly because of the additions of Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez and the several new players who joined the team today when the roster expanded.
The "Good, but not Great" Problem on the Sox
The Red Sox have only a few players who I'd classify as "great" right now. Josh Beckett has pitched great for much of the year, but, started slowly, and, unfortunately, is now in a mysterious slump that's hopefully related to mechanics rather than an injury. I think Jon Lester is a great pitcher, but he's had enough bumps in the road to prevent a "great" record. Kevin Youkilis, to me, barely qualifies as a "great" hitter. I'd say he's "very good." Jason Bay has been "very good," but, his slump was too long and his inability to hit breaking pitches prevents him from being "great." Jonathan Papelbon doesn't quite seem "great" anymore, but he's still a damned good closer.
Without reviewing all the players, my point is that it's hard for a team to win the World Series without a few big stars -- guys playing like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were a few years ago. Or, guys like Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes or Mariano Rivera for the Yankees. Or, on the Rays: Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena or Matt Garza.
The question is whether a bunch of those "good" Sox players will rise to the occasion in September and/or the playoffs?
A player who is trending in the right direction, for example is Jacoby Ellsbury. In recent weeks, he has suddenly been hitting consistently and more comfortable and confident at the plate. (He made an enormous contribution to winning this game tonight vs the Rays!)
A player I've lost confidence in is Ramon Ramirez, who seems to give up hits during every outing and has lost his capacity to locate the ball where he wants -- as he did earlier in the season.
If you go through the lineup, there are "qualifiers" attached to so many players. Ortiz has hit better lately, but, he still seems less able to hit off-speed or breaking pitches as well as in the past. Dustin Pedroia has been erratic with men on base for much of the year. J.D. Drew, who has had a BAD year, has hit much better the past few weeks. With the pitchers, Bard started out off the charts, but has looked more mortal in recent weeks. Hideki Okajima has been very good most of the year, but more erratic in the second half. He just came into a 7 -2 game vs. the Rays and allowed five Rays in a row to reach base.
The Sox Also Would Need Luck to Advance In the Playoffs
On sports radio, all the callers and hosts keep saying that because the Red Sox have Beckett and Lester, they'll be tough for any team to beat in the playoffs. I guess I don't agree. I'd say Beckett and Lester can give the team a good chance, but the "average" or inconsistent nature of their hitting line-up - particularly against good pitchers - makes them more beatable. Their bullpen is good, but seems a bit more vulnerable with Okajima, and, especially Ramirez not as consistent. It sounds funny, but I think Billy Wagner could be a big factor. He has looked fantastic in his two outings - including tonight against the Rays - and his experience could prove invaluable in the playoffs.
Of course, just while I'm expressing these doubts, Papelbon has gotten one of his best saves of the season -- his first two-inning, six-out save -- and this at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla, where the Sox usually stink. Who knows with this team?

Sox Now In Rest of Pack Chasing the Mighty Yankees

2009-08-24T14:39:00.000-07:00

The Yankees now sure as hell look like the The Team to Win it All in 2009.

It has been painful to watch the Yanks beat up on the Sox the past two series. Suddenly, the rivalry is more of the familiar mismatch that it used to be in the late 90s, it appears. I know this Sox team is better than the team that lost to the Yanks in 1999, but, there is the same old "uphill" feeling of watching the Sox try to struggle to get or hold a lead in these games.
The surprise for me, like many fans, has been the sharp improvement in the Yankees' pitching since the start of the year. C.C. Sabathia is pitching like he did in Cleveland now. (I still have doubts about whether he'll perform this well all through the playoffs) Pettite has done better than I expected. And, despite AJ Burnett's problems with the Sox, he's pitched well most of the season.

This Yankee team has the same traits as other recent Yankee lineups in terms of hitting, but, they're perhaps a bit better than a few other Yankee teams since 2001. First, the addition of Mark Teixeira alone has bolstered the team. Cano, who, amazingly bats 7th on occasion, has been the stud hitter he can be ALL season this year. Jeter, defying the aging process, is actually hitting better this year. Matsui, suddenly looks like he went back five years in time and is belting the ball. (How did he do that?) And on and on and on.

The only way for any team - whether in the American or National League - to defeat this loaded, dangerous hitting Yankee team is with stellar pitching. I mean two or more starters - like Schilling and Johnson did in 2001 - shutting down the Yankee offense. (Or, the way the Tigers did it a few years ago, with Rogers, Verlander and Bonderman) Now, yes, the Red Sox are among a very small group of teams that have a couple of stud pitchers who one can imagine pulling this off in Beckett and Lester. However, as we saw in Sunday night's game, even Beckett has to be "on" to limit the Yankee hitters; without a good curve ball, Beckett proved to be very hittable for the fastball-loving Bombers.

So, all teams are chasing the Yanks and must pitch brilliantly in the playoffs to stop them. Having said that, the Red Sox certainly have a decent chance to win the wild card, but, the Rays and Rangers have nearly the same chance, in my view. (I think the Rays have about an equal chance to the Sox because of their talent in pitching and hitting is at or even better than the Sox.)

Why Did Sox Stay with Penny & Smoltz So Long?

I think this question will linger into the winter if the Sox fail to advance in the playoffs.
First, I really believe Brad Penny displayed his mediocrity and limited talents very early on in this 2009 season and he should have been replaced in the rotation a lot sooner. Penny throws mostly fastballs for the entire game - which, in itself, is an indictment of his capacity as a pitcher. The vast majority of pitchers in the American and National League do not throw ONLY A FASTBALL for their entire outing in the same fashion that Penny has. So, as I watched Penny - outing after outing - get hit harder and harder as the game progressed and the opposing hitters got more familiar with his fastball - I wondered: "Why is Sox management putting this guy out there when he has nothing more in his aresenal?"
Penny somehow pitched some half-decent games earlier, but, his outings never lasted more than six innings and he got terrific run support and that distorted how he was actually doing.
As the season progressed, and the "book" was out on Penny among AL teams AND he fell into his decline after the All-Star break, it was painfully obvious that he didn't belong in the rotation. The Sox were VERY slow in removing him, waiting until after his horrible outing last Friday night against the Bombers - which was a hopeless effort. He might as well have been throwing beachballs to the Pinstripers, who just waited on his "meatball" fastballs.
So, if one accepts that Penny stayed in the rotation too long AND, also, that Smoltz was allowed to stay in there way too long, well, that adds up to A LOT of losses for this 2009 Sox team.
Who was responsible for that? Theo Epstein, more than anyone, and, secondly, Terry Francona, who as manager, should have not agreed to put these pitchers out there - even if Theo was influencing the moves.
There is another question that has not been raised about Penny & Smoltz's roles and that is: Why didn't the Sox have more minor-league pitchers who they could have brought up, and, at least TRIED inserting, even if temporarily, in these starting spots? The Red Sox, supposedly, have a deep minor-league system, but, if they felt there were more good young arms to tap, one assumes they would have. Yet, the Red Sox have, on occasion, been too conservative and reluctant about bringing minor-league pitchers up. I'd argue that Clay Buchholz should have been called up after Penny had pitched five or six times and shown his limitations.

David Ortiz, Argubly, May Be One of the Only Players to Lead Sox Into Playoffs

Big Papi is hitting very well again and it seems likely he's got extra motivation to prove his critics wrong after the steroid controversy swirling around him. Ortiz said he was careless with supplements in the past (in 2003, he's implied) but denies ever using steroids. Who knows?
All I know is Ortiz looks more focused at the plate in the past ten days than I've seen him look all season. When he hit his home run off Burnett Saturday, it was a fastball away that he drove into the Monster seats, but, what impressed me was how he waited on that pitch until the ball got closer to his bat. Big Papi has been waiting for the ball to get further into the strike zone, allowing himself that extra split second to make better contact. Ortiz used to hit like this all the time a few years ago, but, this year - and perhaps last year, with his bad wrist - he began "committing" on his swing a tiny bit earlier, making it harder to avoid hitting popups or striking out on breaking pitches.
If, in fact, Ortiz is "on a mission," to prove himself over the weeks ahead, it's possible he could keep hitting home runs and doubles the way he used to - and, in the process, lead the team to some key wins as they compete with the Rays and Rangers for a wild card spot.

Buchholz, Wakefield, Tazawa Likely to Play Key Roles

If the Sox are to make it, they'll need Buchholz to perform steadily as a starter. He's looked very good lately, but, no one knows if he can keep lasting a good six or seven innings in his starts. Tim Wakefield's contribution remains uncertain, depending on the health of his calf. If he can't field his position, he may suddenly have to be replaced - again. Tazawa may wind up in the role formerly occupied by Justin Masterson as a "long man" out of the bullpen, or, as a spot starter.

JD Drew's Awful Season

Drew has been disappointing during most of his time on the Red Sox, but, this year, in particular, his poor hitting has really hurt the team, which has desparatedly needed offense at times, especially with men on base. Drew has continued in his bad habits of taking way too many pitches - particularly with men on base and simply failing to get hits despite his natural talents.

Relief Pitchers Continue to be More Erratic

Rookie Daniel Bard has run into a little rough patch. He's given up some big home runs - first in that series against the Yankees and another in another series. In any event, Bard has to stop leaving his fastball up in the strike zone. He has to keep it on the corners more.
Meanwhile, Ramon Ramirez continues to struggle. What is his problem? No one has identified it, but, he is simply not reliable - as he was during the first half.

Can the Collapsing Sox Make the Playoffs?

2009-08-17T16:38:00.000-07:00

The 2009 Red Sox are falling downhill fast and everyone is trying to figure out how and why it's happening so quickly. Will this team get its act together and still make the playoffs?
Let's analyze the collapse first. I'll discuss only two factors that I think loom large:

1. Ortiz & Ramirez Are Gone -- and Have Never Been Replaced
The Red Sox lost Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of last season, and they've still not replaced what those two mega-stars brought to the table. I say "lost David Ortiz" because I'm referring to the Ortiz of old -- before his wrist injury and other issues caused his skills to decline - and, he's never been the same. He's still fairly good at times - and I think he may finish this 2009 season half-decently, but, he's not even close to the hitter he was two or three years ago, when he resembled Barry Bonds at the plate. (in Bonds' hitting skill) However, I find baseball writers and talk show blowhards amazingly unable to acknowledge this LARGE reality about the IMPACT of the absence of the "old" Ortiz and the multi-talented Ramirez.
Instead, the baseball "pack" of writers keep trying to assess how a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Green and Varitek could have unraveled. Well, the names alone don't even suggest much strength, power, consistency or clutch hitting, do they? If you insert Ramirez and Ortiz - the 2004 variety - it gets instantly A LOT better, huh? I've discussed this lineup in other posts, but, none of these players can CARRY a team for any length of time. Youkilis and Pedroia, when hitting well together, can be damned good and "stand out," but, this year, even they have been a bit erratic - and, neither has the stature of the old Ortiz or Ramirez - period.
So, I'm arguing that Theo Epstein and company don't want any of us to focus on the incredible LOSS this team has absorbed since the middle of 2008, when Manny was traded. Without Manny - particularly this year - one often felt the line-up's vulnerability when, for instance, the team faced a new, young pitcher it had never seen. Often, this line-up has been silenced on those days, which are just the kind of games when Manny, singlehandedly, used to hit a home run and a double to knock in enough runs and, singlehandedly, get a win for the team.
It seems the superior gifts Manny brought have been forgotten by the pack of sports media, who spout the same B.S. in unison. (Watch: They're about to all descend on Drew now because Francona, in a rare moment, made a negative remark about Drew.)
Manny's absence helped keep the Sox from knocking off the Rays and winning it all in 2008, and, this year, with Ortiz struggling so long and others in sub-par seasons, his absence has hurt the lineup much more.

Ortiz and Ramirez were a modern-day Gehrig and Ruth - during their good run in Boston from 2003 - 2007. Yes, that's how good they were. This duo - by far more than any other players - brought two championships to the Red Sox. So, suddenly, Manny is gone and Ortiz has been a shadow of himself and the sportswriters are lamely searching for the explanation that, in many ways, is right in front of them. Why hasn't anyone asked Theo about this void and the team's failure to fill it? Seems after the Sox couldn't get Mark Texeira, they threw in the towel, in a way.

2) Theo & Company Have Badly Over-rated their Veteran Talent and Stayed with it
This is there for all to see. Theo, if pushed, would admit that he was WAY OFF in his projections on how JD Drew would perform here. To call Drew a "disappointment" is an incredible understatement. If it weren't for his salary, would he be in the starting lineup? I don't think so. He sure as hell wouldn't start for the Yankees. Drew hit the big slam in 07 to save the Sox' against the Indians in the playoffs and I'll always be grateful - but, it was a $14 million grand slam.
Theo has failed to get the team a very good shortstop - who can also hit - during most of his tenure. This has been covered. Lugo, Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have not been able to provide enough for different reasons, including injuries - though Green has made a good effort. Bay is good - not great (as the baseball writers often project) but he cannot hit breaking pitches and this keeps him from excelling and coming through in many moments with men on base. Lowell is good - not great - but also struggles with breaking pitches. At least Lowell has made adjustments and tried new approaches - like choking up when he has two strikes on him. Ellsbury, again, is good - but not great. He's had an unusually good stint of hitting lately, but he still has a poor swing and doesn't follow through enough with the bat and watch the ball long enough. Varitek's situation has been well-covered, but, now, with the season on the line, it's time for him to catch only Beckett and Lester at the most. His time is ending now and I think the team should probably not bring him back next year. He simply cannot hit for enough of the long season to provide at least some much-needed offense.
A look at the pitching reveals more misjudgments by Epstein for 09 - mainly in his sticking with John Smoltz and Brad Penny for so long. After Smoltz had appeared three times, it was obvious he didn't have it -- His remaining starts and losses hurt the team and are Epstein's responsibility. Penny has been over-rated for much of the year. He displayed his flaws and limitations early on, but the team stuck with him and now, they're paying the price as Penny deteriorates - as he apparently has in previous seasons. He should no longer be in the starting rotation - period. He throws only fastballs and any good professional hitters start to belt the ball off him by the second time around. His bad appearances - from early June on - are all on Epstein, if you ask me. I'd rather try Bowden or other young arms from the Sox minor-league system -- even if one or more of these pitchers needed time to get better. With Penny, you know what he cannot bring you. A younger pitcher MIGHT be better.
Rocco Baldelli was probably never going to provide sufficient hitting as a utility player.
Overall, I guess I'm sick and tired of hearing Francona or anyone associated with the Red Sox talk about what a good hitting lineup this team has. We've seen WAY TOO MANY games in 2009 when this team has been unable to do a thing against average pitchers. It is NOT an impressive line-up compared to many other teams - whether the Yanks, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies and more. The bottom half of the lineup has been poor since sometime in 2008.
One other thing: I wonder sometimes if the coaching is aggressive enough with certain players who make the same mistakes over and over. For example, Ramon Ramirez, who starred for the first couple of months of 2009, has not pitched well for about two months. He keeps leaving pitches up - and in the strike zone - and he keeps getting hit. I assume John Farrell talks to him - and I think Farrell is about the best pitching coach we've had for years, but, sometimes, I wonder if certain players require more or different coaching. Can't Ellsbury be taught to take more pitches and draw more walks for instance? Can't someone tell Drew to swing at more borderline pitches?

Can the Sox Make the Playoffs?
Maybe, maybe not. If I had to predict tonight, I'd say they're more likely to fall just short at the end of September. I think the Rays will likely finish ahead of them in the wild card, and, perhaps the Rangers too. Unfortunately, even if the Sox make the playoffs, I don't see how this Sox team can go far in the playoffs. It's not enough to have Beckett and Lester. You have to score a few runs - and, this team has been unable to do that.
Certain players, suddenly, have to play better. That's possible, but, it'll be tough in all the games when the Sox play tough teams. In the past month or more, the Sox have performed horribly against teams with winning records.
Victor Martinez probably is one of the only hopes -- I don't think it's fair to expect so much of him, a newcomer, but he has more talent than many others in that lineup and he might provide a spark. Plus, Ortiz has to perform as well as he did in his good stretch before the All-Star Break. Plus, Wakefield has to return to his form of the first half - and Buchholz or Matsuzaka or someone has to win a few games in the role of 5th starter.

I think the Red Sox are in a major transition now. They have a few veterans who are in their last years --- Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Wakefield. They need a new injection for 2010.

Can Victor Martinez Rescue the Red Sox?

2009-08-04T06:57:00.000-07:00

I know one player cannot do it all, but, I feel the acquisition of Victor Martinez was absolutely critical to the Red Sox even having a good chance to make the playoffs and go anywhere. I've been arguing the Sox needed this calibre of hitter for some time. Well, Theo and his team got it done and they deserve credit.
Martinez is off to a great start. He looks better at the plate than most of the other Sox players. He has a good stance - like he's going to uncoil on contact. Plus, he seems to have a good eye and watches the ball ALL the way in better than some of his teammates do.
So, while VMart is a terrific plus, it seems the rest of the team is undergoing a stressful time waiting for David Ortiz to face the media to talk about his past use of steroids. Big Papi has mysteriously waited much longer than anticipated to make any statement. Last Thursday, following a day game in Baltimore, Ortiz said he'd have more to say as soon as he got some questions answered from the MLB Players Association. Let's hope he does this before arriving in New York before Thursday, when the Sox face the Yankees for a four-game series. The fans and media in NY are unlikely to make this an easy weekend for Ortiz.

In the meantime, the pitching - once viewed as the team's steadiest strength - is suddenly showing a number of serious weaknesses.
1) Smoltz - I've given my views on him. If, somehow, he survives more than five innings against the Yankees, I will consider it a minor miracle. I just don't think Smoltz can last at all against all the Yanks' great fastball hitters when, he now has one of the worst, weakest fastballs I've seen in a long time. I predict he will be shelled, and, of course, I hope I'm dead wrong and Smoltz somehow is inpired as hell to pitch well vs. the Yanks what may be one of his last games ever. 2) Buchholz - Well, having seen him in a few starts, it's easier to understand why Theo Epstein was offering Buchholz in possible trades to Toronto and Seattle - and, probably other teams. Buchholz hasn't progressed as much as people thought and perhaps that's why the Sox left him in Pawtucket for the first half: They might have wanted to hide his mediocrity and project an impression that he was better than he is -- so that teams would have interest in him at the trading deadline. Whatever it is, Buchholz seems to have three big problems: 1) His fastaball command is lousy. (Plus his fastball is "straight" and very hittable, making location even more critical). 2) He's not throwing his curve, which, two years ago, was one of his best pitches - along with his top-notch changeup. What's up with his curve? I have no idea and no Boston sportswriters seem to ask these basic questions. 3) He has a MAJOR attitude problem that leads to a lack of confidence on the mound and hurts his focus and performance. Buchholz doesen't even sound confident in his interviews with NESN between games. As others have noted, when anything goes wrong in the game, he seems to over-react and panic somehow, and things get worse quickly. Buchholz needs more work with his confidence or he'll be unable to improve. I hope he's getting the help right now!
3) Penny - I've covered this. He's always been mediocre at best, and, outright BAD in a number of games. The word is he gets worse in the second half of seasons. That's NOT good. I hope he's out of the rotation at some point, but, maybe he'll surprise me. 4) Wakefield - He is now recovering from a new ailment - sciatica that is affecting his left hamstring. Wakefield told reporters that, when he was in Texas with the team recently, he could barely walk. It sounds like it may require additional weeks for him to even try pitching effectively. Even if he recovers fast, Wakefield has broken down the past two years, and, probably should not be counted on heading into the playoffs.
With Matsuzaka trying to regain strength in his shoulder and arm in Florida and potentially unavailable until September, what other pitchers will the Sox be able to call on?
Hopefully, one of their minor-league pitchers will step into the void and do well.

One last point: A few members of the highly-touted bullpen have quietly become unreliable. Tops on my list of worries is Ramon Ramirez, who has been giving up too many during a bad stretch that has now lasted close to six weeks, it seems. What's going on with him? Is he working with John Farrell to address his problems? When he comes in now, he is a different pitcher than earlier in the year. He leaves many pitches that get too much of the plate (and, get hit, mostly) Manny Delcarmen is in one of his inconsistent periods. I've never understood why Delcarmen's curve ball, which has excellent movement, cannot be used more often and with more effectiveness more consistently. Hideki Okajima, while still decent, has given up more hits in the past month or so.
Then, of course, there is Jonathan Papelbon, who, somehow keeps clinging to a record that does not reflect how he's looked on the mound. I keep waiting for him to blow more saves. I won't repeat my rants on this topic, but, Papelbon's fastball is simply not as good as it used to be. It can be excellent at times, and, to his credit, Papelbon seems to save some of his best heaters for big moments when strikeouts are needed to end a threat. However, he used to have "giddy-up" all the time. Now, he doesn't and hitters foul off pitches all the time OR get hits OR draw walks. A few years ago, Papelbon could throw his electric fastball down the middle and hitters usually swung and missed. Now, he struggles with his location in most outings and struggles to throw just enough well-placed fastballs to survive. I give him credit, but, something is wrong with his arm or he wouldn't still feel he HAD to use this "new motion" he refers to. What worries me is whether Papelbon will be able to repeat these "borderline" performances in September or in the playoffs. I will not be shocked if he starts pitching worse in the last weeks of the season. He has grown arm-weary in other seasons at season's end, and, this time, he'll be tiring after not pitching as well as he used to all year.

Sox Brass Must Snap out of Denial & Make Moves

2009-07-26T11:53:00.000-07:00

OK. Will someone please explain the logic behind the Red Sox continuing to start John Smoltz when he's demonstrated he cannot pitch well this season?
Today, it was painful to watch John Smoltz, in his 6th start, again pitch so poorly and display the same vulnerabilities. I just watched Oriole slugger Nick Markakis, for the second time, take advantage of a very poorly-placed Smoltz fastball (It was more like a beachball!) and belt it for a home-run. I couldn't believe Smoltz left two fastballs up in the zone to Markakis. That takes some BAD pitching. I've heard pitchers talk endlessly about the importance of "fastball command." Well, Smoltz's fastball now lacks velocity, movement and location. It's terrible. In addition, his breaking pitches quite often have "hung" in the zone and been hit hard.
This is certainly not what Theo Epstein and company hoped for in signing Smoltz, but, that brings me to the main point.
Why are Epstein and the Red Sox so hung up on "giving Smoltz a chance"? Listen, I completely respect Smoltz. I recall him shutting down the Sox with his slider a couple of seasons ago. However, the Sox' apparent decision to keep putting him out there with the blind hope (or, fantasy) that somehow, he'll magically recapture his skills seems not only misguided, but outright damaging to the team's chances to make the playoffs. In fact, it's indisputable that Smoltz has already hurt the team in his starts. The team has lost five of the six games Smoltz started and he has worn out the bullpen.
So, what is it going to take, Theo? I'm afraid the Sox are being stubborn on this one. Terry Francona, before today's game, was urging everyone to be patient with Smoltz. One of this Red Sox team's few weaknesses in recent years has been to stay too long with a non-performing player. Remember Francona repeatedly bringing Eric Gagne in? How about Javier Lopez or Alan Embree, when he got bad a few years back? Tim Wakefield at various times?
Yet, at the same time, the team - along with baseball writers and fans - have shown much more tolerance with Smoltz than with Daisuke Matsuzaka, who, despite his 18 - 3 record last year, was dealt with quickly when he didn't perform this year and reassigned to strengthen his shoulder in Florida most of the summer.
I fear this Smoltz "experiment" has become some strange "personal" matter for Epstein, Francona or other Sox officials. Smoltz, after all, is 42 and coming back from surgery. They want him to succeed so badly, it seems, that they're willing to assume the risk of hurting the team quite badly to prove they're right.
It's time to replace Smoltz in the rotation and move on.
Of course, the largest area I feel the Red Sox must face reality with is their lack of hitting. I think sportswriters and fans are in the same denial as the team about just how weak this team's offense is. I ask you: Who is a consistent hitter who can "carry" this team for a spell? Who is a consistent power hitter? A consistent "contact hitter"? The team has a lot of fastball hitters, but, who can hit breaking stuff? It's not a coincidence that SO MANY young pitchers, who have never faced the Sox before, have shut them down easily.
I feel the argument to land a high-calibre player like Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez has become very hard to refute. Opponents of a major move express worry about who such a new star player might replace in the line-up, but, I think one has to face this line-up is a losing one.
I realize, as I write this, the Sox are right behind the Yankees, but, they're getting worse while the Yanks and other teams are getting better. Plus, isn't it hard to imagine this lineup making it into the playoffs and World Series?
I know it's oversimplifying, but, the Sox have not come close to filling the tremendous void left by the absence of Manny Ramirez!! If this team still had Manny, I'd feel better about its offense, wouldn't you?

Sox Hitting Woes Continue: Help Needed

2009-07-21T19:05:00.000-07:00

Weak Hitting Catches Up to Red Sox
OK. When are the Boston baseball writers - and many fans - going to come out of their denial about the Red Sox hitting? Maybe the past few days will help convince people that, yes, the Sox need to add hitting if they want to compete with the Yankees, Rays or anyone else this fall.
Tonight, the Sox made Tommy Hunter look like Roy Halliday - scratching out only four hits against the very young Ranger starter, who they clobbered last year. Lately, the Sox cannot hit any pitchers, it seems. No one in the lineup has looked great, but, Drew, Ellsbury, Varitek and Green have really struggled.
In the past day or two, some have discussed the need for more production from the leadoff hitter - whether it's been Ellsbury or Drew. I must say I do not think Ellsbury is ready to perform well in that role. Why? It's very simple: He doesn't take nearly enough pitches, and, doesn't walk nearly enough. Plus, and this is huge: He is not a good "contact hitter." Ellsbury, at this young point in his career, swings early - and commits early - at the incoming pitch. He needs to wait longer and see the ball longer if he is to become a better hitter.
Can Ellsbury improve enough to be a good leadoff hitter in the second half of 2009? I doubt it, but, I hope so.
The Sox are simply expecting too much out of certain hitters. David Ortiz is an example. He's still not what he used to be, and it's probably unlikely to reach that level. Tonight, for example, when he came up against Hunter in the 6th inning with Youkilis on 2nd base, (Youkilis had just doubled in Pedroia to get the Sox within one run), Ortiz got a hittable pitch down the middle and popped it up, ending the threat. Ortiz has hit so many popups and harmless flyballs this year that it's ridicolous. In the past, Big Papi might have drilled that pitch for an extra base hit.
I won't go on. Drew needs an adrenalin injection or something to get more aggressive at the plate. He appears so indifferent as he watches strike after strike hit one of the corners.
Anyway, it's time for Theo and company to get realistic about this line-up - by adding to it!
Pitching, by Accident, Just Got Better
Tim Wakefield is on the disabled list, forcing the Sox to call up Clay Buchholz. I think Buchholz' mere presence on the staff makes the Sox a bit better - by forcing Epstein, Farrell and Francona to compare his stuff to the pitches thrown by Penny and Smoltz -- and maybe decide Buchholz deserves a few chances, or, a regular spot in the rotation. I just wish Buchholz didn't have to start by facing the Rangers lineup tomorrow because they have a few very tough hitters.
Tonight's game, in my view, is perhaps the best recent evidence of the Sox need to get a hitter at the Trading Deadline. Why? The Sox ace, Josh Beckett pitched tonight - and pitched quite well, but the Sox couldn't put any runs on the board -- so, his quality pitching ended up being irrelevant. You can't win with pitching only, Theo, no?

Sox Need to Make Changes for Second Half

2009-07-20T16:20:00.000-07:00

It'll be Decision Time soon for Theo Epstein and his team. The Red Sox must decide whether to make deals at the Trading Deadline - and, if not, whether to shake up the team's pitching rotation and hitting lineup for the second half.
I, for one, still feel this Sox team is a bit over-rated. That they played a little over their heads in the first half and found unusual ways to win despite injuries, the two-month slump of David Ortiz and some weak hitting at times.
Pitching Changes Possible
it seems at least more likely there will be changes in Red Sox pitching rotation. I hope and expect Clay Buchholz to replace Brad Penny in the starting rotation. I hope the Sox are able to trade Penny at the deadline because they can insert a pitcher with a better chance to make a quality start every time he takes the mound. (Buchholz)
What I hope sealed this deal (in my fantasy projection) is Penny's most recent poor outing, when he gave up six runs in five innings. That outing followed several other mediocre outings by Penny. Why stick with a guy who has been "average" much of the time when Buchholz has proven - most recently at Pawtucket - that he can excell?
Who knows what other changes might come to the rotation? If the Red Sox are not at least thinking seriously about reversing their plans to leave John Smoltz in the rotation all summer, they should begin reflecting now. Tonight, in his fifth start, Smoltz, after looking decent for a few innings, imploded in the sixth and gave up three home runs. From watching Smoltz, it seems he is almost unaware of how hittable some of his pitches are -- whether it's his slower fastball or one of his breaking pitches that seem to "hang" badly on occasion. Any way you look at it, Smoltz does not look intimidating out there; instead, he looks like a old, veteran pitcher who's throwing a lot of "soft" stuff because he's lost confidence in his fastball.
Granted, maybe Smoltz can still turn it around. He's had flashes of his old self = particularly when his slider has had real bite to it. However, the Sox cannot be "sentimental" with Smoltz. He's not looked really good in any outings, except one in which he pitched for a few innings of a game that was eventually cancelled against the Orioles. Opposing hitters are batting .303 against him. If he doesn't show more soon, I think they should at least plan for the contingency of releasing him or using him in the bullpen. Last point: Smoltz seems a bit in denial himself about the quality of his pitching. He keeps saying after games that he's felt good and that hitters have, at least sometimes, hit good pitches.
So, I think the Sox should start Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield and the fifth should be Smoltz for only a relatively short while longer. If he turns it around, great. If not, I'd re-insert Dice-K or whoever else is next in line -- Michael Bowden?
Hitting Changes Possible
It seems the signs everywhere suggest the Sox feel they're "all set" with hitting - and that baffles me. I know some of their stats compare well vs. other teams, but, my observations - watching games - tell a different story. I see Jason Bay in this long slump, and my reaction is that Bay was never as good as he played in his torrid first half - I expect he'll hit better, but I think Bay, ultimately, is a good hitter who is occasionally very good -- but, rarely outstanding. Plus, Bay cannot hit breaking pitches well and that comes back to haunt him a lot. Ortiz is basically back, but not all the way, by any means. He, also, is now a good hitter - not a great hitter -- so that hurts the team, especially without Manny Ramirez around. Youkilis and Pedroia have both had ups and downs, but, I think you can count on them as performing solidly - even if neither has a season as stellar as 2008. Who's left? J D Drew? He's had a poor year, overall. He's batting about 240. He has hit poorly in the clutch and his failure to take a more aggressive approach with men on base has hurt the team badly - again. He's a very over-rated player. Mike Lowell has been solid when he has played - but, he's more fragile due to his hip injury and he cannot run. Jason Varitek is much improved over last year, but remains a weak hitter, especially against breaking pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury is an over-rated hitter, in general. He often has at bats when he simply doesn't look good. He has a weird snappy swing that looks bad often -- He doesn't wait on the pitch and swing through it... I don't have much confidence he can be a first-rate lead-off hitter when he continues to lack an ability to get a walk.
That leaves shortstops Jed Lowrie, who needs time to recover from surgery, and Nick Green, who has slumped badly of late.
Overall, is this a lineup that even compares to the Yankees hitting? No way. No way. Red Sox fans are dreaming if they think our lineup is that good.
I think if there is any way the Red Sox can improve their hitting - either by acquiring a much better hitter to serve as a bench/reserve player OR miraculously acquire a top-notch shortstop from a team, they should do it. Either way, the Sox need more punch in their lineup if they're going to compete with the Yankees and the Rays. You cannot win a title with only pitching. We learned the need for balance in 2004 and 2007 -- and, we had Manny Ramirez for those title runs. Let's face it. The Red Sox have not come close to replacing Manny's hitting in their line-up.

Papelbon Looked Much Better Tonight

2009-07-10T18:44:00.000-07:00

OK, even after what I wrote yesterday about Jonathan Papelbon, I have to acknowledge that he pitched great tonight! Tonight, after a masterful performance by Jon Lester over eight innings, Papelbon came in to preserve a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning. As NESN analyst Dennis Eckersley pointed out, it seemed that Papelbon was particularly focused on the task at hand tonight. He seemed to feel the fragility of the 1-0 lead - and he performed as well as he has all year. His fastball was moving again. A handful of his pitches reached 97 mph - a level Papelbon does not usually reach. He was moving his heater inside, outside and up in the zone to make batters swing. The Boston Globe's Tony Maserotti just commented on NESN that he thought Papelbon tonight looked like he has the past few years - at the top of his game, throwing with a bit more velocity and requiring little time (and less pitches) to get three outs.
So, how does one explain the Papelbon of tonight vs. Wednesday night? Tom Caron of NESN just remarked that Papelbon apparently didn't get his normal time to warm up in Wednesday night's game. Who knows?
I think one aspect is clear: Papelbon often pitches better when he has rested the night before. When he throws in back-to-back games, he's sometimes a bit less sharp and some of his fastballs are more likely to have a bit less zip. I agree with what Maserotti just said: That Papelbon is much more effective when his velocity is a bit higher --- 96, let's say, rather than 93 or 94, the speed of a fair number of his fastballs this year. Plus, for whatever the reason, some nights this year, he has the "late life" and other nights, he does not.
I still stand on my points from last night, but, after tonight, I'd add this: The Red Sox should treat Papelbon with extra care and precautions and give him as much rest as possible. The disparity in his outings - highlighted by his brilliance tonight - underscores that point.

Will Papelbon Be Strong in October?

2009-07-09T15:46:00.000-07:00

Maybe I'm in a tiny minority of fans worried about Jonathan Papelbon, but, he still does not seem himself on the mound - and, the season is half over.
I've written about my observations of Papelbon a number of times on this blog. Most often, I've written that Papelbon didn't have the same "late life" on his fastball this year. His control has not been nearly as good. He has walked far more hitters. He has thrown far more pitches in many appearances, as hitters have made frequent contact, fouling off pitches and making flyball and line drive outs quite often. However, a few times, just when I've been ready to conclude Papelbon is hurt or has a serious problem, he's had a good outing - featuring swinging strikeouts. This had reassured me. Plus, I read - as you did - that Papelbon had changed his pitching motion - to put more weight on his legs and reduce strain on his arm. This made one speculate that he was adjusting to the new motion.
Yet, after last night's outing - my concern about Papelbon is back - and now, I'm wondering if he will have the same recurring problems all season, or, very possibly, get worse.
Last night, I watched Papelbon barely survive a long 9th inning against the Oakland Athletics. It was familiar. He gave up a walk, a single, and, then, a smash hit to center that looked like it would be a home run, but it stayed in the yard - a sacrifice fly - due to very strong incoming wind. He then got a strikeout, gave up a single and struck out the last batter.
As often, Papelbon was unable to get his "straight"-looking fastball by some hitters. (In past years, he has fired strikes - even down the middle - easily by hitters because of his "giddy-up."
What's going on with Papelbon? Is his arm worn out? Did he change his motion out of necessity due to worries about potential strain to his arm? Do the Red Sox expect him to be effective all season? Maybe one of their chief motivations to get Daniel Bard up to the big leagues fast this season was to be a backpup to Papelbon THIS year instead of in future seasons.
I don't know, but, right now Papelbon does not look strong and refreshed out there. He looks like he could easily wear down further by September -and, by then, his fastballs might be even more hittable.
Ramon Ramirez has to work his way out of a little pitching slump. He still is not "right" - He's throwing balls out over the plate too often. Justin Masterson has had two bad outings. The bullpen is finally showing a bit of vulnerability, and it only underlines the Sox need to bolster their only real need for improvement - the bottom part of their hitting lineup.

State of the Sox Heading Into July

2009-06-30T15:06:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox keep rolling - with pitching - on top of the AL East. In fact, I feel - as the season nears the All-Star Break - that this team feels more defined by its pitching strength than any team in my lifetime.
Their rotation has gotten stronger as Beckett and Lester have found their comfort zones and performed superbly in recent weeks. The bullpen has continued to perform with amazing steadiness. Overall, while the team's hitting is good, it's pitching is its essence - its core strength. I'm trying to recall other Sox teams with pitching that approached this 2009 staff. Of course, the 2004 staff - with Schilling, Pedro and Lowe was damned good, but, Lowe didn't have a great regular season - and saved, by far, his best pitching for the playoffs. Schilling had his "A" game most of the season, but, Pedro, while very good, was past his absolute prime years back in 1999 - 2000. (although 20 -4 in 2004 wasn't bad, either, huh?) My point is that this 2009 pitching is top-notch from beginning to end -- and, the team is more dependent on its pitching this year than in 2004. Think back to the hitting lineup of 2004 vs today's. Then, we had Manny, Damon, Mueller, Millar and Ortiz at top of his prime.
The pitching in other years just doesn't compare. Yes, it was good in 2007, but this year's bullpen is better. In 2003, the bullpen in late innings was good (Timlin, Embree, Williamson) but, not as good throughout and the same was true of starting rotation. In 1978, Eckersley was the ace, but, if Mike Torrez was considered in top of rotation, that reminds us of its lower quality. (Tiant and Lee were good for half season)
The point is the Red Sox pitching is as good as any other team's in baseball. At the start of 2009, the conventional wisdom was that the Yanks had a better rotation. I don't buy that and our bullpen is superior to New York's...........but.........................I still think the Sox need to make a significant move at the trading deadline.

The Sox Should Deal for a Good Hitter

With their pitching set up to win it all and David Ortiz hitting again, what are the Red Sox needs?

(I just learned Mike Lowell has been placed on the 15-day DL, so, that will hurt the team before the break and the uncertainty about Lowell from this point on will impact Theo Epstein's outlook at the trading deadline)

Some observers are saying the Sox don't need anything. They've shown they're the best in baseball with their current lineup. However, they're not factoring in that - right now - the Red Sox are in a unique position: They have the second-best record in baseball but they also have a "surplus" of talent, particularly when considering the number of first-rate minor-league prospects. They are in a better position to make a trade than I can recall in any season.

So, how can the Red Sox choose NOT to make a trade, and, thereby give this great team an even BETTER chance to win the championship in 2009? I think the arguments to trade for a hitter or two are absolutely compelling. With Lowell's injury, this is even more clear. Now, I admit I don't know who will be available, so, my point is weakened or irrelevant if no good players are around on July 31.

The logical position to insert a very good hitter is at shortstop. Neither Nick Green or Julio Lugo can be relied on for good field and consistent hitting the rest of the season. Yes, Green has performed beyond expectations, gotten key hits and been acceptable at short despite a number of errors. I'd rather have a better player, if possible.

Other observations from recent games:

Ramon Ramirez has been in a little pitching slump and I hope he comes out of it soon. Last night, he looked "strong" - as Eckersley said on TV - but, he still gave up a hit and a walk in the inning he pitched.
Big Papi is still not all the way back, in my view. I think he's likely to get a bit better if he, in fact, still has the same talent and was in bad habits at the plate. His swing has been slightly off on some pitches down the middle of the plate, making him pop up or hit fouls on pitches I think he would have more often belted for hits in the past. On the other hand, the trends are still good with Papi. His hitting eye seems back - He's been very selective -as in the past and drawn many walks. I think if he waits a tiny bit longer for the ball to get closer to him -as he used to - he'll regain even more of his form. Then again, maybe I have to face that he's not likely to return to the same level. We shall see.
I still don't feel Ellsbury looks good at the plate. I wish he'd change his swing and swing through the ball more. He continues to have that short, choppy swing - It looks too short - like he's not following through and "carrying" the ball on the bat long enough.
Dustin Pedroia is bound to get even more hot as the season continues, but, I've really noticed that he gets far less pitches down the middle this season. Teams know how good he is now and they keep pitching him on the outside corner. While he's adjusted and can hit line-drive singles to right, he has not pulled as many line drives off the wall this year, it seems. Pedroia is the least of my concerns.
Papelbon, in a couple of recent games, has worried me a bit -- again. If I had to summarize the differences with Papelbon, one thing stands out: When he throws a fastball down the middle this year, the hitter gets wood on it more often than in 2007 or 2008 - fouling it off, making an out or getting a hit. His fastball sometimes still lacks giddy-up and other times, the hitters are just more ready for Papelbon's fastball and he can't get away with those pitches right over the plate. (In the past, he could often just blow the ball by the hitter now matter if down the middle or on the corners) Now, Papelbon must either add that old zip to his heater or simply hit the corners more. It's a tribute to him that he's still performing so well, but, I think he'll have to make adjustments if he's going to keep it up into the playoffs. He can't keep getting away with these outings with walks, hits and so many pitches.

Dice-K to DL; Red Sox' Depth Paying Off

2009-06-22T07:52:00.000-07:00

Well, in my last post a week ago, I was suggesting that Dice-K be placed on the disabled list -- and I'm glad that has finally happened. (He had another poor outing June 19th) Maybe he can address his pitching problems in time to return with more effectiveness this season, but, I think it's going to take him most of the summer. Who knows if he'll even be back this season?

I think, despite the reluctance of Red Sox to acknowledge it, a sizeable part of Matsuzaka's difficulty is physical. His arm seems really tired. Perhaps his lack of velocity and other symptoms are related to his entire career, which includes years of a heavy pitching workload in Japan.

In any event, with John Smoltz filling Dice-K's spot in the rotation and Clay Buchholz ready to come up anytime, it seems the Sox starting pitching will remain as strong as ever.

The Red Sox' depth is emerging as a strength perhaps unmatched by any other team in Major League Baseball in 2009. So far, the depth of their bullpen has been even more impressive.

Unlike most baseball seasons in my life, I cannot think of a relief pitcher who might come into a game who is "bad" or sub-par. Almost every pitcher in the bullpen has pitched well. Javier Lopez, who didn't perform, is no longer on the team. Even lately, when individual pitchers like Ramon Ramirez, who has been terrific most of the season, has run into a rough patch, it doesn't matter as much because there is always another relief pitcher to come in and get the job done.
Yesterday, in a very unusual moment, Ramirez and Hideki Okajima both gave up hits to the Braves, but the Sox still hung in there and won on Nick Green's walk-off home run.

On top of pitchers' performing, David Ortiz appears further along on his way back to form.. He has found his timing and looks very different at the plate in the past two or three weeks. It still feels a tiny bit early to know if Big Papi can stay in this groove, but, what's important is that he's demonstrated his problems didn't seem tied to lost bat speed, but, rather, mechanical details he can address. If Ortiz can keep hitting like this, this may put the Sox over the top.

I think they could still use more hitting, and I hope Theo Epstein explores potential moves at the trading deadline. Think about it: This is one of the few moments in recent Sox history when they can approach the trading deadline with a "surplus" of players - of pitchers! - they can use to get a player or two to strengthen their team. Shouldn't Theo seize this moment and make the Sox even more unbeatable? Yes, injuries might still be a huge factor, especially with older, veteran pitchers like Smoltz and Brad Penny in our rotation, but, that just bolsters the argument to add to our lineup.

Back to Matsuzaka a second: I still don't understand why baseball writers lack the confidence to identify what they see with their own eyes. They kept harping on Dice-K's performance in recent weeks rather than discussing how he looked on the mound. His fastball had become so flat and hittable. It lacked any zip. His breaking pitches were often a lot further out of the strike zone than usual. Why didn't any writers mention that something seemed wrong with Dice-K?
It seems they were too wrapped up in enjoying ripping into Matsuzaka in every other way and harping on how BAD he was. Sportswriters in this town have been too hard on Dice-K, in my view. Don't get me wrong: I've been annyed by Dice-K myself, but, I can at least acknowledge his positive moments. In his first year, he did well much of the time. I recall him baffling hitters in the best lineups like the Yankees. My point is: There's a difference between Matsuzaka not performing due to arm trouble and him not performing because he's simply a bad pitcher. Well, he's a very good pitcher with serious arm (and shoulder) problems, I'd say.
Last point: Another HUGE point not made often enough is that Matsuzaka has found it very hard to adjust to pitching in the United States. I think it's fairly clear that he cannot grip the American baseball as he could grip the ball in Japan. He cannot throw the same pitches in the US. (He throws his changeup only occasionally here despite his changeup being his strongest pitch in Japan!) Peter Gammons is the only baseball writer who I've noticed ever reporting on these important changes Matsuzaka had to make.

Dice-K Should Go Back on the Disabled List

2009-06-15T16:51:00.000-07:00

Those of us who watched Dice-K Matsuzaka's performance this past Saturday night (June 13th) saw a pitcher who does not look close to how he pitched last year. Instead, he continued to not only pitch poorly, but, to appear at less than full strength.

Dice-K, in my view, has some physical problem that's making him ineffective. Maybe it's simply fatigue - in his arm or shoulder. I don't know. All I know is that he looked terrible. His fastball not only lacks velocity, but the kind of zip or giddy-up it has had in the past. His breaking pitches, particularly his normally-effective slider that cuts to the left, have been really bad and wild. He's lost much control of all his breaking pitches. All of this seems to point to an injury or health problem that must be addressed.

I predict the Red Sox will place Dice-K on the disabled list (DL) but, if they don't, they should.

I just hope Dice-K can improve in time to return to the rotation and be effective this season. He looks so bad and arm-weary that I worry this problem may be more long-lasting. Dice-K has, after all, pitched a ton of innings that might have contributed to general fatigue in his arm.

Addressing Questions On the Rotation

I think if Dice-K goes on the DL, it would make immediate decisions about which pitchers to include in the rotation much easier. You could move Smoltz into Dice-K-s spot - if, in fact, Smoltz pitches well in his next start in Pawtucket. (If Smotz, by chance, keeps giving up hits and runs in Pawtucket, perhaps he should, simply, not join the Red Sox at all).

In any event, it appears the Red Sox could benefit from taking a bit more time to make decisions about its rotation for the rest of the 2009 season. Brad Penny, so good against the Yankees last week, can get a couple of more starts to evaluate. The team can monitor Smoltz and Dice-K. Then, depending on their needs, they can decide if they might trade Penny or what other moves to make. Perhaps the next few weeks will make it easier to decide to bring Clay Buchholz up to the Sox.

I hope, when the dust clears, that Dice-K has a good-sized rest before he rejoins the staff or is allowed to keep pitching. Something is wrong with him and it makes zero sense, given our incredibly rare "surplus" of good pitchers, to "force things" with an unhealthy Dice-K. (Even Dice-K, in a rare interview with Foxsports.com last week, said that, after his previous start, he felt his pitching had been "plain" and described his inability to mix his "hard' stuff with his "softer" pitches.

On the Rest of the Team..............

This has been a terrific stretch for this team. Their sweep of the Yankees last week was impressive. especially their overall pitching - starting and bullpen. Lester and Beckett have been on fire. (OK, Beckett had one bad outing...) David Ortiz showed more signs of life in the past ten days than he has all season, hitting a couple of "Ortiz-type" home runs at Fenway and showing more patience at the plate. It seems, every night, a different player or two plays the key role in contributing to a win. Papelbon has kept getting the job done. A couple of relief pitchers had unusual, bad outings (Ramirez, Delcarmen, Bard yesterday) but, for the most part, have continued to excell. Hideki Okajima continues his stellar pitching.

If this team can be in first place - despite the ups and downs it has experienced so far - all indications suggest this Red Sox team will remain in serious contention all summer - and, if they can add a little more hitting - have as good a chance as any team to win the World Series.

Sox-Yanks Series A Good Indicator

2009-06-08T12:21:00.000-07:00

Beckett Game a Terrific Start

How the Red Sox fare in this home series against the Yanks seems a good measure of their strength right now.

Last night, I attended the first game - watching Josh Beckett have one of his best outings ever (as a Red Sox player) against the Yankees. I was truly amazed at how effective Beckett was - given that I've watched him struggle in many games against the Bombers. Because Beckett relies so heavily on his fastball, I think it's always a challenge for him to get through the Yankee lineup of the past few years. Most of the Yanks are fantastic fastball hitters who blast any "mistake" pitches down the middle. Well, last night, Beckett obviously had excellent command of his fastball and he used his curve and changeup a lot, keeping the Yankees off balance.

I do not recall other Beckett outings vs. the Yankees when so few Yankees even hit the ball hard during the entire time Beckett was in there. They had only one hit - the groundball that Pedroia stopped, but, couldn't get a throw to first on.

Perhaps the rainy night affected the Yankees. Whatever it was, I was astonished that the All-Star lineup couldn't make better contact for six innings against Beckett. Delcarmen did OK and then Daniel Bard came in and just blew the ball by Texeira, A-Rod and Cano. Bard was throwing 98 - 99 - one pitch at 100 mph, and, I was sitting right down near home plate, and I'm telling you those great hitters could not get the bat around on Bard.

Of course, Ortiz' home run to center was a joy to watch -- Is he - maybe - really on his way back now? That home run -- unlike the others -- looked more like an old Papi home run. It was blasted, and, he knew it was gone.

What's Up with Matsuzaka?

It's very hard to understand where Dice-K is at this year. Is his arm still tired - partly due to his playing in the World Baseball Classic, or, is it perhaps cumulative fatigue from his whole career - including many long games he pitched for years in Japan? What's his attitude toward how he gets treated by John Farrell, the pitching coach, and Terry Francona?
Why does he show so little sign of changing the habits that cause him problems on the mound?
I ask these questions after Dice-K struggled in his last outing and lasted only five innings - again.
He didn't walk any hitters, raising questions as to whether he did so to "comply" with a more stern request from Francona and Farrell. He just doesn't seem as sharp this year and no sportswriters seem able to get interviews with him - or to get the truth through other sources.

It's time the Red Sox got a better handle on Matsuzaka and shared the insights with the fans.

It's Dice-K's THIRD season here and the only way I found out he has difficulty gripping the American baseball compared to the ball used in Japan was by catching a Peter Gammons column within the past year that revealed that. Matsuzaka does better gripping the smaller ball used in Japan. To me, Dice-K's problems gripping the ball seem likely related to his chronic problems with control. Gammons reported that Dice-K stopped using his changeup as much due to the
issues gripping the ball - and, apparently, he dropped one or two other pitches in order to focus on his remaining pitches.

Matsuzaka has stubbornly clung to his habit of "nibbling" on the corners when good hitters face him - and, often, walking them rather than challenging them with pitches over or close to the plate. He does this despite having two or more terrific "breaking" pitches - his cutter, his slider or even his curve, which he doesn't use often. Dice-K does not seem interested in changing his approach -and that must be driving Farrell and Francona crazy.

Last year, I defended Dice-K when people criticized him. He had a great year, but fans got on him for pitching so many five-inning games due to control problems. Well, he was great.
Now, that he's in his third year hear, I've been more impacted by the cumulative effect of watching him walk opposing batters needlessly in every game he pitches.
If Matsuzaka does not improve this year, it will put Theo Epstein in a difficult position. He invested so much in this pitcher, but, he's got a lot of good young pitchers waiting to get a turn now. The Red Sox should treat Matsuzaka like all the other pitchers.

Sox Could Look Very Different Before Long

2009-06-02T10:18:00.000-07:00

One gets a sense this Red Sox team may look very different come August 1 - the day after the trading deadline. Or, perhaps, big moves will happen before the All-Star break in mid-July.

Certainly, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox leaving David Ortiz in his role as designated hitter much longer - especially if he does not improve in June. In fact, I think it he keeps struggling this month, either he'll be put on the disabled list (DL) or the team and Ortiz will somehow come up with some response that allows him to practice his hitting or weigh his future.

If Ortiz himself feels he's healthy, but, unable to make progress by July, I would not be shocked if he retired from baseball. I doubt this will happen right away and I hope, obviously, he starts hitting again. I think he'd go on the DL for a while to give himself a last opportunity before he quit, but, if that didn't work, what could he do? I think Ortiz, unlike other players, has so much pride that he'd choose to take himself out earlier rather than later. Who knows?

The shortstop position remains a source of uncertaintly. Will Jed Lowrie be strong enough and good enough - coming back after his injury - to stay there until the end of the year? Will Lugo and Green keep platooning - and performing in mediocre fashion - until Lowrie's return or will Theo Epstein go get another shortstop, perhaps to play temporarily? I think they can survive until Lowrie returns without a move.

Meanwhile, the overall hole on the team, in my view, is in its hitting. When they face a half-decent pitcher, their hitting can become spotty and erratic very quickly. Youkilis and Pedroia are likely to be steady, but I think Bay and Lowell are likely to have a few ups and downs. Varitek is unlikely to belt as many home runs. Drew is having a poor year so are, and, seems generally over-rated -- as many claimed when he arrived in Boston. Ellsbury has been good, but is still developing his ability to hit breaking stuff - He's better-suited -- at least facing some pitchers - for the bottom of the line-up, where Francona just moved him.

My point here is the Red Sox need more hitting - more contact hitting and more power. It'd be great to get a guy like Mark Texeira who can do both. They can't beat the Yankees, with their All-Star lineup of hitters without Ortiz being himself - and without Manny. Think about it: The Sox, who used to split with the Yankees when they had Ortiz and Ramirez in the #3 & #4 spots, now have, in effect, neither - due to Ortiz's slump.

I just sense that they're about to make not one - but three or four moves before Aug. 1st. I think Brad Penny will be traded. Some juggling of the pitching rotation will be done to get Smoltz and/or Buchholz in there. I HOPE they make some moves because, so far, they've survived the first two months in the most unlikely, strange way. Their record seems better than the team has looked. As Michael Silverman wrote in today's Boston Herald, it's "somewhat of a minor miracle" that the Sox are now 29 - 22 and in 2nd place behind the New York Yankees.

If this team does NOT make a few changes, it's not hard to imagine the wheels coming off and the Sox losing ground more significantly to the Yankees.

Dice-K Should Have Better Control By Now

2009-05-27T20:28:00.001-07:00

Daisuke Matsuzaka is pitching in his third year on the Red Sox, and, why is it that no one can really explain how he pitches and why he runs into recurring problems? I have been a strong defender of Dice-K and argued to others that his performance last season was outstanding even though he walked many players and pitched out of trouble a lot.

Tonight, against the Twins, Daisuke gave up 9 hits, 3 walks and 4 runs in five innings -throwing 102 pitches and forced out of the game. He threw FOUR wild pitches.

Now, I must admit I'm growing less patient with some of Matsuzaka's act -- his poor control, his "nibbling" on the corners, and, apparent related fear of challenging teams' best hitters. You just get a repeated sense with Dice-K that he has the talent to take far more chances. Further, by choosing to avoid risks in one-on-one battles against good hitters, he ends up walking guys, getting in hitters' counts and giving up extra base hits and home runs.
I'm tired of this same approach - over and over. Why can't John Farrell or Terry Francona of Jason Varitek get thru to Daisuke and tell him to change his ways? Enough is enough. He's got to knock off the nibbing and try throwing the ball differently in different counts.

I've long believed that Dice-K had to make a HUGE adjustment from pitching in Japan and it has negatively impacted his pitching far more than Boston's baseball writers have suggested. Peter Gammons is one of the only writers to report that Matsuzaka, after pitching here a full season or more, decided - in consultation with John Farrell - to give up a few of the pitches he used to throw in Japan simply because they weren't as effective AND there were advanatages to focusing on less pitches to make effective. I don't think Matsuzaka has EVER grown completely comfortable throwing the slightly larger baseballs used in the US compared to the smaller balls used in Japan.

What makes Dice'K's performances more frustrating is that sometimes, when he's got control and is a bit more aggressive, he's looked terrific against the Yankees and other teams in big games. It's time, Dice-K. If it weren't for his ridicolously high contract, I'd consider trading Dice-K given the surplus of pitchers we have now.

If Sox Can Win With This Lineup.................

2009-05-25T19:00:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox weird 2009 season continues - and the team keeps winning in new ways with new players contributing. I feel the "stand-out" trait of the team so far is its bullpen, which has been awesome - with Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and Manny Delcarmen - among those excelling so consistently. So, that characteristic alone is strange. Since when have the Sox been "led by their bullpen"? Their old sluggers - Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz - have been replaced by Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay. Ortiz has been "absent" due to his unprecedented slump. What a transformation from the middle of the 2008 season until now.

It's amazing this team is leading the tough AL East with a hitting line-up, which, on paper, looks so "average" 0r "unimpressive" compared to other teams. So, what I keep thinking is: Can you imagine if either Ortiz starts to hit again - OR, they're forced to trade for a very good hitter to essentially "replace" Ortiz, and that hitting injection strengthens their lineup substantially?

It seems, to me, this team can get only better. If they can do well with their current limitations, then won't they improve with more hitting and the expected contributions from other pitchers like Clay Buchholz and John Smolyz and others.

In fact, although it sounds funny, they'll soon have too many good pitchers to use! How will Buchholz or Smoltz ever get a chance to pitch? It's a nice problem to have, huh?

I hope a rumor I read proves true -- that they trade Brad Penny. I think they will do that. They clearly need a bit more hitting - I think a few players are hitting a little over their heads now - such as Bay, Lowell or Ellsbury. I'm not predicting those three will become awful, but, rather, that they're all hitting very well at the moment, and, are likely to have ups and downs.

Last points: My ongoing monitoring of Papelbon and Ortiz. While I didn't see Papelbon's appearance Monday when he gave up the 2-run home run to Mauer, I did see the one before that, when he gave up the game-winning home-run to Santos, the Mets player. Despite the mistake he threw to Santos - a pitch left right over the middle of the plate - I thought Papelbon looked very sharp that Saturday night. I am less worried about him now. He's got the zip back in his fastball. It at least seems he's growing more comfortable in his new motion -- but, maybe, he's still not getting the same "late life" in his fastball in every appearance.

Ortiz is another story. As the weeks go by, I've grown more convinced of my theory that perhaps the most accurate way to understand his struggles is that he has never recovered from his wrist injury, which bothered him last year. It seems Ortiz' wrist is not the same - and, it's as if Ortize thinks his wrist has the same strength and speed as it used to, but, it doesn't.
Why haven't the Sox had Ortiz' wrist examined by doctors again? Why not get more MRIs or other tests done? Is there any kind of surgery that Ortiz could have done to help his wrist?
I'm tired of hearing no attempt to explain any origin of Ortiz' problems. It seems, sadly, that his home run was more of a fluke - as he, again appears to be swinging a slow bat.
Ortiz either starts to hit in June - with or without a trip to the disabled list to give him time to work his hitting - or it seems he'll be taken out of the lineup or remove himself from the lineup before the second half of the season begins. It just seems Ortiz' current struggles won't and can't go on for the whole season.

Big Papi Hits 1st HR -- Will He Be Unleashed?

2009-05-20T20:05:00.000-07:00

The Wait is over. David Ortiz's swing on his first home run seemed pretty normal -- His timing was good for a change. Then, when he hit a double later, he said after the game, that he felt more relaxed in that next at-bat. Let's hope so. It'd be pretty amazing if he just suddenly started belting the ball now. Terry Francona has said his batting practice sessions have gone well lately, but he's been unable to carry that form into games.
It's too early to know. I heard someone tell an anecdote on television tonight that Yaz, when he was coming back from a wrist injury in a season in the 1970s, I believe, went 71 games without hitting a home run. (I'm researching this.....) Rare anecdotes like that help put Big Papi's struggles in a bit of perspective.
Meanwhile, the Sox keep plugging - with even Brad Penny getting through the Jays' lineup. Our good fortunes continue - as Varitek hits 2 HRs, Bay, Lowell and Papi each hit one.
The Yanks, behind A-Rod, are on fire, suddenly, and the Rays are up and down,
If I had to guess today -- it looks like the Yanks and Sox will go down to the wire.

Papelbon Looking Sharp, Saving Wakefield Gem

2009-05-19T18:31:00.000-07:00

Jonathan Papelbon is gradually convincing me that he is OK, after all. Tonight, his fastball appeared to have the old snap to it and he was placing it inside and outside with precision.
Hitters were simply late getting the bat around - and that's the way it usually is with Papelbon.

Earlier in this short season, that was NOT happening. Batters were fouling balls off and making good contact quite often - whether with hits or "loud outs."

As for Big Papi, the "Waiting and Watching" continues and I think it's driving many fans nuts. Everyone wants Ortiz to do well, but, the longer his slump goes, the more painful and awkward it is. Tonight was sort of typical for the season - a couple of strikeouts and a groundout. He had one swing at a fastball when he was very late - again. I really feel that Ortiz' bad wrist either never healed as he thinks it did, OR, somehow, after it healed, it just wasn't the same. Of course, Ortiz is simpy late witht his swing, but the question I'm raising is why -- and, it's either his wrist or, his skills have faded away in the course of one winter.

If the Red Sox can get a little more hitting and more consistency from their starting pitchers, they could get a lot better and be in contention through September.

Low Point for Big Papi

2009-05-14T16:55:00.000-07:00

The Red Sox just won a heartbreaking loss to the Angels, 5-4, in the 12th, but, somehow, it does not feel like the worst part of this loss.
Here it is: The Sox left 17 men on base --and David Ortiz left 12 of those runners on all by himself. That, unfortunately, tells the story of how far Ortiz still is from being himself at the plate. Ortiz has been the most clutch guy on the team for most of the past six years; yet, now, he's performing like a bad 9th hitter in the lineup.

I am not one who goes with the pack on matters like Ortiz' slump, but, it's not his slump alone that concerns me. It is HOW he looks at the plate. He's made little or no progress since the start of the season. Yeah, he's had a few good at-bats, and, at times, he looks a bit better than others. Lately, he's looked a bit better than a few weeks ago, but............

But --- he still cannot hit a simple fastball. David Ortiz cannot hit a fastball? Yes, on occasion, he hits flyballs to the deeper part of the outfield, but, even when he does that, his swing does not look the same to me. His swing is not as quick. It does not have the same "snap" to it. You can really notice it on his swings and misses. When Big Papi was himself, he watched the ball until the last split second - the same way all the best hitters do (Jeter, Youkilis, etc) Now, he starts his swing a tiny bit early and it screws him up. It's like Tony Masserotti of the Globe said: It's as if he knows his swing is slower. Even when he hits it to the outfield, the ball dies out there because many of them haven't been on a line - and hard enough - to drop in.

Well, I stand on what I said several blogs ago: If Ortiz's woes continued until the later part of May, it'd be time for Francona to take him out of the lineup -- at a minimum, for several days off to work on his hitting. At maximum, get Ortiz checked out physically or perhaps find a way to put him on the disabled list -- if it can be done legitimately.

I'd give it another week or ten days - and, then, if Ortiz has made no progress, it's time to take action on this. I'm the biggest Ortiz fan out there, but, he has - and is - hurting the team now.
It's time to try new responses (rest) and make absolutely sure that he is completely healthy (especially his wrist, shoulder and any parts of his body he needs to hit well)

As far as the game today, the Sox had a zillion chances to score and failed to get any big hits.
I have to say, however, they were due to lose a game like this - because they've won their share of these close games when they haven't played that well so far.

Bullpen and Bay Are Carrying the Depleted Red Sox

2009-05-12T17:36:00.000-07:00

It's quite amazing the Red Sox are in second place - only a game behind Toronto going into tonight's opening game against the Angels. (May 12th)

Amazing because of not only key injuries lately (Youkilis, Pedroia) and the continuing struggles of David Ortiz, but, also, the sub-par starting pitching of Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.

Two keys to their success have been the stellar work of the bullpen and the consistent, clutch hitting of Jason Bay. Hideki Okajima has contributed several great outings of more than one inning recently. Ramon Ramirez is still performing well. Plus, while I've been very concerned about Jonathan Papelbon, his last two appearances have eased my worries a bit.

Papelbon's performance Sunday night against the Rays - when he struck out BJ Upton, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria - was his most clutch, positive showing of the season. Why? He got three excellent hitters to miss repeatedly with swinging strikes -- something he had failed to do this year. Though I was not close enough to my television to study his pitches, it appeared he was getting a little more "late life" in the fastball, which made the difference.

Watching the team tonight without Youkilis and Pedroia, however, is sobering. The lineup of hitters is SO weak. This is the kind of night I miss Manny Ramirez.

While I'm on Manny, my primary reaction to his suspension is sadness. Manny is the best hitter I ever saw come through Boston and I'll never forget his relaxed, beautiful hitting form at the plate. Secondly, I still believe the Red Sox will be forced to try to find a very good hitter at the trading deadline and that Theo and company will be open to making a MAJOR trade, if that's what it takes to get another bat in the lineup. Without Manny and with the potential of Ortiz not regaining his form, the team faces a real chance of petering out in the dog days of August.

Joba Chamberlain Is the New Yankee to Despise

2009-05-05T18:50:00.001-07:00

I already didn't like Joba Chamberlain. Now, I can't stand the guy.

After he'd already - inexcusably - thrown the ball repeatedly at Kevin Youkilis in the past, (four times in 07 & 08), tonight, in the 5th inning, Chamberlain threw the ball directly at Jason Bay, hitting him in the back. And, it sure as hell looked intentional. Jason Bay had hit a home run off Chamberlain earlier AND Chamberlain hit him after a long stretch of being in total command of his pitches and mowing down one Sox player after another with terrific control. (He had struck out nine Red Sox since from the 2nd through until he hit Bay).

Dennis Eckersley, substituting for Jerry Remy as commentator, immediately voiced his strong opinion that Chamberlain hit Bay intentionally. Eckersley repeated this for emphasis, and, said he didn't like it. Well, if Eck is that convinced, so am I -- and, I'm sure, the Red Sox are too.

So, the question is: Who the hell does Chamberlain think he is? He's a fantastic pitcher with terrific stuff - and he showed it again tonight. So, why the hell does he have to throw the ball at hitters like this? He's got to be held responsible.

I'm not advocating Red Sox pitchers retaliate. I don't like that whole part of baseball, but, what about Major League Baseball keeping an eye on Chamberlain and taking action against him the next time it looks so incredibly obvious. He can't be allowed to get away with this.

It appears David Ortiz was completely on target when he said recently that Chamberlain had to show players he deserved their respect and that throwing at players was not something people should associate with his game.

It seems predictable that, at some point, some Red Sox pitcher will hit some Yankee batter in retaliation for Chamberlain's move tonight, but, who knows? I thought Beckett would do it tonight, but, he left the game before Hideki Okajima came in and retired six Yankees in a row.

I'll take the win, but, I hope Chamberlain gets the message that he's out of line. He's way too cocky for his own good now. He needs to grow up.

Sox Been Lucky So Far - As They Head Into May

2009-05-04T14:59:00.000-07:00

I feel the Red Sox are lucky to have the record they do right now. If you look at the whole picture - Ortiz not hitting at all so far; Lester and Beckett being erratic; Dice-K being out most of season so far; Lowrie's injury; Penny's poor pitching - it's a bit surprising to see the Sox in 2nd place.

-- The weeks keep passing and I share the concerns of many Sox fans about David Ortiz - more and more each week. The more time passes, the more I suspect that Ortiz' wrist problems from last year are still hindering him. If it's not that, it seems the only other explanation is Ortiz simply losing his skills suddenly. That seems it'd be more mysterious and unlikely. He's only 33, but, it happens occasionally to pro athletes.

To me, Ortiz's core problem is his inabilty to get his bat around fast enough to hit almost any fastball at any speed. I've seen him - as you have - swing late on many fastballs that are clocked at 89 mph. He used to swat those kind of fastballs all over the field. I think because he knows he can't hit fastballs, that is messing up his timing with all other pitches a pitcher is throwing. If a hitter cannot hit a fastball, he probably cannot do well in the big leagues - period. Ortiz was always a fastball hitter, but, he was so good that he could wait on pitches and make contact on curves and changeups too. (It's hard to remember this now)

I think if Ortiz is making no progress by May 20th or so, I think it's time for Tery Francona and Theo Epstein to start considering what to do about Ortiz. First, at a minimum, I'd consider giving him several consecutive days off to take pressure off and let him practice his hitting with Davd Magadan. Second, I'd consider putting him on the Disabled List and having a more extended time out of the line up. (They can identify some ailment, as they've done with others)
Lastly, if this were to continue on and on, my own hunch is that Ortiz himself would not want to hurt the team indefinitely - and might even take himself out of the lineup.

Other thoughts: The Sox bullpen, except for Javier Lopez, has been pretty solid. Okajima has had a couple of shaky outings, but, been excellent other times. Jason Bay has played beyond expectations. Jacoby Ellsbury has shown flashes of watching the ball better at the plate.

With the great pitchers the Sox have in the minors, it's painful to watch anyone - like Lopez - stay on the pitching staff much longer. They have so many good pitchers now, it could be a challenge to find a spot for a couple of them. (Buchholz, Bard, Smoltz).

Wed Night's Unlikely Win Was Sweet

2009-04-29T19:57:00.000-07:00

Wow. I didn't think the Sox has a chance tonight after Lester didn't have it and they were down 5-0. Somehow, with the help of rookie Jonathan Van Every's game-winning home run in the 10th, they pulled it out. Youkilis wasn't in the line-up - or Drew. Carmona pitched great most of the game, with his nasty changeup making Sox hitters look bad.
I think the Red Sox have good karma right now. If they can win all these games now -- without Ortiz hitting as he can -- they're bound to get better.
I remain concerned about both Ortiz and Papelbon. I've seen - as you have - Ortiz fail to get his bat around on fastballs that he has belted in the past, and, you have to wonder how long that slower bat speed is going to last. Tonight, in his last at-bat against Jensen Lewis of the Indians, he fouled off an 89 mph fastball on the outside corner that I swear he'd have hit easily the past few years. There have been many, many, many pitches like that in this short season -- when he's simply not swinging the bat with the same quick snap he's had in the past. He also just does not seem to watch the ball as long as it comes in toward the plate.....as if he knows his batspeed is slower -- so, he must commit to his swing earlier.
If his bat does not get faster within two or three weeks, I'll begin to really believe his wrist is still not healthy OR his skills are, perhaps, diminishing in sudden fashion for a mysterious reason at the age of 33.

You see: Papelbon IS throwing the ball differently

2009-04-29T05:32:00.000-07:00

I noticed something appeared "off" about Jonathan Papelbon's pitching in his second appearance. this season vs. the Angels. I wrote about my observations in this blog -- That his fastball lacked "late life" and hitters were not swinging and missing. This pattern continued until his appearance in the first game this week against Cleveland, when he gave up three singles.

What's amazing, to me, is that it took until Sunday's April 26th Boston Globe for a reporter to acknowledge Papelbon's different approach, look and results on the mound. Amalie Benjamin's 4/26 article, finally, reported that Papelbon had changed his delivery and mechanics to take pressure off his arm.

"I'm using my legs more so all that torque and stuff is going to be on my legs and not on my arms, Papelbon told the Globe. He said he felt comfortable with the new mechanics, which feature driving more with his lower body.

Amalie Benjamin's article mentioned that, so far, hitters were not swinging and missing as often against Papelbon, and he'd been forced into higher pitch counts. Michael Silverman wrote an article in the April 29th Boston Herald about Papelbon and reported that his inconsistency was due to the new leg drive in his delivery.

I think the Globe and Herald may be scratching the surface with this Papelbon story. Why did he change his delivery - apparently during Spring Training? Was it due to the team's concern about strain in his arm? Don't forget Papelbon finished the 2008 season feeling completedly wiped out - and that was his description. The team already has closely monitored the frequency of his outings to prevent any recurrence of the subluxation of his shoulder that occurred in the fall of 2006.

It seems there is more to this story. It seems what Papelbon is suggesting is that while he got more "late life" from his previous delivery, he (and maybe, the team) feels that now, he must learn to pitch this new way that puts the stress on his leg drive more.

The question is: Will he be as good a pitcher with the new approach? So far, he's not, but, he may improve over time.

Thoughts on Friday Night with Joba and Yanks

2009-04-24T14:01:00.000-07:00

I hope Joba Chamberlain does not throw the ball anywhere near Kevin Youkilis tonight.
If he brushes Youkilis back with a pitch near his head, I would not be surprised if Youkilis loses his temper and some sort of brawl begins. I don't expect Chamberlain to do this. It would be stupid and inexcusable.

Chamberlain has thrown the ball in the direction of Youkilis' head or way inside on FOUR occasions between August, 2007 and July, 2008. He threw two of those pitches back-to-back at Youkilis during one at-bat in 2007! Both pitches went behind Youkilis. That's how inside they were! That got Chamberlain suspended for two games.

I have never -- ever -- heard of any pitcher doing anything like this -- in terms of throwing this many bad "brushback" pitches at one player on an opposing team - in my lifetime. I've heard no baseball writer give any example that compares to this record Chamberlain has with Youkilis.

If Chamberlain throws at Youkilis tonight, I strongly believe he should be not only thrown out of the game and suspended for far more than two games, but penalized SEVERELY.

More on this series later.

Lester's Outing Was Best Pitching of Season

2009-04-21T10:57:00.000-07:00

Well, it looks like the Jon Lester of last season is back. He was terrific on Sunday - and, this time, he kept the ball down much more often. His cut fastball returned to form. His threw the ball very hard at times (96 mph) This is, in some ways, the most important thing to happen to the team in the past few days.

Let's hope that Big Papi's double and triple yesterday were a sign of things to come. Amalie Benjamin's story on Ortiz in today's (4/21) Globe was very good because she got Ortiz to open up about his hitting woes. While it was nice to hear that Ortiz has been working hard on his hitting mechanics, it was a bit unsettling to read his admission that he's swinging late - and that that's something he has not usually done. The question is why? Let's hope it's a bad habit.
Interestingly, Ortiz himself admitted to Benjamin that "If you as a hitter slow down with 88 miles an hour (fastballs) that means you've got to go."

The bullpen has been very good with the exception of Javier Lopez, who, I must say, almost never reassures me on the mound. Papelbon, again, threw hard in his last appearance, but, I didn't see the "late life" in his fastball. I think if he has to pitch to the best hitters now, he'd have a tough time - without more "giddy-up" - The Yankees could be tough for him next weekend.

Youkilis and Pedroia have gotten so good that I'm rarely surprised by them now. Youkilis is on fire now -- I think he, actually, has a good chance to get better as a hitter - He seems to improve every year.

What impressed me with sweep of the Orioles is that the O's can really hit -- but, the Sox still kep them in check. Nick Markakis is, in my view, one of the best hitters out there.

Sox Win Great Comeback, but.....I have worries

2009-04-17T20:16:00.000-07:00

To win a dramatic 10-8 comeback by defeating Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles' best pitcher, on a night when the Red Sox were down 7-0, is a pretty damned good night. These kind of comebacks happen only a few times a season........yet......

Big Papi Is in a Hitting Rut

Yet, I find myself very concerned about David Ortiz at this point. I could understand if he were just "getting off to a slow start," but he looks so bad at the plate now. On top of whatever mechanical parts of his swing are messed-up, I think Big Papi is also pressing now - It seems in his head. He swung at a couple of pitches tonight that were out of the strike zone -- He got struck out on high fastballs twice. This hasn't happened a lot over the past few years. Ortiz, in the past, has watched the ball all the way to the plate and been able to take a quick late swing. Sometimes he's been able to flick the bat so fast and late in his swing that he hits a home run or a double off the green monster, maybe. This year, he is not getting the bat around as quickly and he's swinging and missing OR fouling pitches off that he has hit for the past five years.

What is going on? My own theory is that his wrist injury and his adjustments to it are still causing him trouble. In parts of last year, his swing looked a bit different too - and he was in pain then. Supposedly, he was told to rest the wrist all winter and it'd get better -- So far, I'm not buying that everything is OK.....Either he got his mechanics all fouled up in response to the injury OR it's still bothering him.

I just don't like what I'm reading and hearing about Ortiz, either. Tony Masserotti of the Boston Globe made a comment that he thought Papi was getting fooled on breaking balls, because he was trying to "cheat" by partly looking for the fastball - and the reason for that may be that Ortiz feels he's not getting around on fastballs quickly enough. Then, Buster Olney of ESPN wrote about Ortiz' struggles. Others are.......I just hope he's OK but, if his wrist is hurt, he ought to get it addressed. If he's not playing well this year, I don't think the Sox can make it anywhere.

Papelbon Looked Bit Better Tonight, but Still is Not His Old Self

Tonight, Papelbon, after some rest, was throwing the ball hard - but again, two hitters were able to hit pretty deep flyballs off his heater. His fastball was at 94 mph or 95 or 96, but, somehow, it looks more "straight" than it has in the past and lacks the "late life." He looked best tonight on the last pitch of the game when he got Pie to swing and miss on the third strike. I think that was his only "swing and miss" strike of the outing. That's very unusual for Papelbon when he's on. It happened last time too.. Until I see him with more zip in his pitches and getting guys to miss, I'll remain worried that somthing is "off" or wrong with Papelbon.

Other items of note:

Penny looked terrible -- He threw all flat fastballs and his curve wasn't great either and his location was bad....I can't see this guy improving enormously - I hope I'm wrong. Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez pitched very well and helped save the game tonight.

Dice-K Looks Injured, Sick or, Just "Not Right"

2009-04-14T20:11:00.000-07:00

What the hell is going on with the Sox? This weird start keeps getting weirder. Tonight, Matsuzaka didn't look right from the first pitch he threw. He seemed to lack energy. He didn't throw the ball as hard as usual.. His location was terrible. It was as if he couldn't throw any ball normally - period. I've seen Dice-K on other bad nights, and this was worse. There is something going on - My suspicion is even stronger now that his physical state is poor as a result of all the time he put into playing in the WBC. (I mentioned this after his 1st start!) Tonight, Jerry Remy was animated in noticing Dice-K had nothing on his fastball and that NONE of his pitches were working.
So, why the hell was Dice-K even out there? Why hadn't he seen a doctor? Is the telling the truth to John Farrell and Terry Franconca? Are they trying to prod a bit with Dice-K to get the truth? You get a sense there's some unknown factor that'd explain Dice-K's state.
Meanwhile, after one inning with a few hits, the team is down 5 -3 and appear capable of making the Oakland A's look like the Yankees of the late 90s.

Sox Sleep-walking and Mediocre on West Coast

2009-04-14T12:04:00.000-07:00

I hope the Red Sox are not THIS bad. I do not believe they are, but, they're playing like crap, aren't they?
No hitting, No pitching. No energy, it seems.
Last night, I was surprised that Jon Lester seemed so "average" after a previous bad outing. Last year, he was so consistent and seemed to rebound well if some part of his pitching wasn't working. I watched part of the game and Jerry Remy kept accurately pointing out that Lester's pitches were up in the zone. He's so much better when he's throwing it low. Then, to my surprise, I read Lester's comment today that he thought he performed better than it appeared.
Perhaps Lester is in a bit of denial. He has some adjusting to do to improve.
The hitting, meanwhile, has been awful -- and reinforcing the worries of fans like me who believed we needed another bat in the lineup. It's very clear when the Sox face a guy who does not throw many fastballs, they're in trouble. A majority of this Sox lineup hit fastballs, but only on a couple - Youkilis, Pedroia, for ex. - can hit other pitches consistently.
One good "contact hitter" would do wonders for the Red Sox. A guy like Todd Walker.
I am starting to get a bit worried about David Ortiz. I think his timing is still not right, but, I'll wait a while before panicking.

Where is Papelbon's "late life" in his fastball?

2009-04-12T07:30:00.000-07:00

I watched Jonathan Papelbon's grueling save of the game against the Angels' Saturday - and, I'm a bit concerned about how he looked.

First, I heard vague reports from Spring Training that Papelbon hadn't performed in his typically top-notch way. I never watched him, so, it was impossible to judge. I knew he was supposed to be working on another pitch.

Well, yesterday, I watched as Angel hitters kept getting the bat on one Papelbon fastball after another. Everyone spoke about he incredible 9th-inning battle between Papelbon and Howie Kendrick. Kendrick, at one point, fouled off seven balls in a row. What few were noting was how rare it is for a hitter to manage to keep getting wood on that many Papelbon pitches in a row.

I did not see the normal "giddyup" in Papelbon's fastball. Even with velocity, it looked more straight and hittable than usual. And, this is after he had several days' rest - and at the beginning of the season. What's going on here?

I hope there is an explanation. He looked a bit better in his first outing of the season.
With Papelbon, that "late life" on his heater is everything. Without it, the Sox season goes down in flames.

Wakefield Pitches Poorly -- No Surprise

2009-04-10T21:14:00.000-07:00

OK , I know the season just started, but, I'm closely monitoring Wakefield. Tonight was so typical for him. He gave up three runs early and walked five guys in his 6-inning stint. In the 5th inning, with the Sox down 3-1, Wakefield gave up two singles and a walk to load the bases with nobody out. Then, somehow, he got three straight outs and pitched one more inning after that. The Sox went on to have other problems - It's now 6-1 Angels in the 7th, but, what killed me was about 20 minutes ago, I heard Don Orsillo and Tony Masserotti giving Wakefield a lot of credit for lasting as long as he did and saving the bullpen for the remaining two games.
What? I'm so sick of Wakefield getting this kind of "credit" for being an "innings guy."

I'm telling you: He's not that good anymore. The problem is I get the strong impression that no matter how badly he performs, this Red Sox management team - of Francona and Epstein - will leave Wakefield in there until he keeps losing and losing and it's too late to undo the damage.

Hope for Varitek?...but, Too Early to Interpret Signs

2009-04-09T19:49:00.000-07:00

A Few Thoughts After Opening Series with Rays:

In some ways, the series with the Rays suggested that some of last year's dynamics (in terms of Sox strengths/weaknesses vs. top teams) seem to have carried over to the 2009 season. It's WAY too early to know.

The Rays look damned good again. The hitters at the top of their line-up somehow looked even more intimidating than last year. (Crawford is healthy, for ex.) Garza looked very impressive and Kazmir looked sharper than he did last year at times.. Plus, I worry - like many Sox fans - if our line-up has enough "contact hitters" to keep us in games against good pitchers. Guys like Ellsbury, Bay, Varitek, Lowell, Lowrie have sometimes struggled when facing pitchers who throw more than straight fastballs.

It may sound crazy, but perhaps the most important early sign is that Jason Varitek has hit the ball hard a few times. TwoHRs in three games! Last year, he had stretches when it seemed you'd be grateful whe he hit a foulball! Maybe his work with Dave Magadan will pay off a bit. The Captain looks better at the plate - Maybe we have 9 real batters again.

Relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez pitched well. He could be a key bullpen contributor.

I think the losses by Lester and Matzusaka don't mean anything - but, when Dice-K himself acknowledged afterward that his fastball had no life, it made me hope there's no physical problem here. He looked tired on the mound, to me - Mayb it was WBC fatigue.

It's too early to judge Big Papi - He never hits Kazmir and Garza was awesome yesterday. I did see Ortiz swing and miss at one Garza fastball down the middle and thought: "Ortiz used to hit that pitch every time a few summers ago" We'll see....but, I, for one, believe that if his wrist is OK, Ortiz should start to hit soon. He's too good a hitter to not hit. If he has any long slump, that's not just a bad sign, but, a VERY bad sign for him and the entire team. Without Manny, the Sox are so dependent on Papi -- I think they need another slugger.
I worry a bit about Ellsbury - Has he improved his hitting? One Ray pitcher threw the ball inside on him effectively for an entire at-bat. He had that problem last year - It's time for him to adjust.
It's going to be a tough, long season competing against the Rays and the Yankees. Before it's over, I have a feeling the Red Sox will have to add a hitter. The Rays hitting even seemed better than the Red Sox in the first series. I never had that feeling before.

Ten Points as the Season Opens Today

2009-04-06T12:43:00.000-07:00

1) While I agree with others that the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all have the potential to win the American League East, it bugs me how many baseball writers and fans are saying the exact same things about these teams. I think one or more of these teams will probably not come close to living up to expectations. (My guess: the Rays) Teams so often look good on paper, but run into unforeseen developments - like injuries - every season.
Look at the Yankees in the past eight years: In April, they've always appeared awesome, but, they haven't won the World Series since 2000.

2) Speaking of baseball writers being in "lockstep," virtually everyone is saying the Yankees' starting rotation is the best around. I, for one, am not buying it. Yes, they have good pitching, but, I won't call it great yet. I predict, by the end of the season, two or three of their starters will have not performed up to expectations. Sabathia, in his first year amidst the pressures of NY, is not as much of a "guarantee" as predicted. I think AJ Burnett will not be the reliable "stud" pitcher all are suggesting. His chances for injury are high, if you check his career stats. Chien-Ming Wang can be erratic at times, especially in "big" games. It's still not clear that Joba Chamberlain is best-suited to be a starter for a whole season. He throws so hard that he may run into injuries - as he did last year. Andy Petitte is old and his skills are in decline.
Plus, the Yankee bullpen is not so "special" either -- meaning, if these over-rated starters get into trouble, maybe Joe Girardi will wear out his set-up guys the way Joe Torre used to.

3) Tim Wakefield should NOT be in the Sox starting rotation. Hell, I don't think he should even be on the team anymore. Wakefield is reportedly a terrific guy off the field. The problem is he just isn't that good anymore. He has not pitched consistently in the past few years. The Red Sox have a soft spot for "Wake" - or denial. I'm sick of hearing about how "he's a good "innings guy."
Yeah - bad innings. I predict he will again do poorly and it will probably take the team too long to yank him from the rotation. Clay Buchholz should be in his spot - period.

3) The Red Sox hitting is much more of a question mark than some of the "lapdog" Boston writers have been claiming. The hitting is good, but not great - on paper. The way things are trending, Pedroia and Youkilis will probably have solid years. David Ortiz can hit for power again, but, the question for Big Papi is whether his wrist will hold up ALL summer. Jacoby Ellsbury must show that he can keep adjusting, in general, and, even, during an at-bat, and hitting those inside fastballs. So, he's no certainty.
Mike Lowell will be OK if his hip holds up. JD Drew is erratic at best, when healthy, and, often, injured. Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie can both hit but, while Bay hits for a bit more power, each can be fooled by a good pitcher's breaking stuff. That leavesVaritek, and he the question is if he'll break .240 All in all, this is not a rock-solid, offense. It's got holes, but..........if a few players have good streaks (like Drew in June last year) and Baldelli or others do well, they might be good enough to win.

4) I think when Baldelli does play, he'll have some pop in his bat and make it harder to keep him on the bench at times.

5) I do agree with others on the value of John Smoltz. It seems likely that come the mid-summer, he'll find a way into that rotation, and, down the stretch, I bet he'll win a few big games. They have to use discretion in how they use Smoltz to help keep him strong, however.

6) I think Buchholz will find his way back into the rotation. He's just too good to stay in the minors. He's regained his confidence and wants to prove himself. It'd be a shame to not put him a position to comeback.

7) Daniel Bard will be called up to make a contribution, and, if his 100 mph heater is zipping by hitters, maybe he'll stay a while.

8) I think it's premature to rave about the Boston bullpen. Saito is coming off an injury. Okajima started to pitch better during parts of last year. Delcarmen was erratic. Papelbon became completely wiped out by the playoffs. He was tiring at the end of the season, relying too much on the fastball. Hitters have adjsuted to Papelbon, and he has to keep counter-adjusting to stay on top. I think he can do that, but he needs regular rest.

9) If the Red Sox inconsistent hitting results in them trailing in the AL East come July, I think they'll try to get a good hitter by the trading deadline.

10) The Yankees lost today and Sabathia got shelled! What a great start to the Sox season!