Pettitte's Departure a Good Omen for Red Sox Nation

We won't see that Andy Pettitte stare again. I will always associate the televised image of Pettitte's eyes peering just over his glove for the catcher's sign with many other negative Pinstripe memories. Yes, I acknowledge Pettitte's abilities and I enjoyed rooting against him because of that, but.......I'm just happy he won't be around to help the Yankees win so much.

His absence significantly impacts the Red Sox - Yankee rivalry for 2011. It gives the Sox an edge in starting rotations as we enter a year when our hitting line-up, amazingly, has gotten much closer to the quality of the Yankees' line-up with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.
I think the Yanks still have better hitting - without question, but, suddenly, it feels the two teams are much closer --- similar to the feeling we had back in 2003 and 2004, for instance. This comes after about six years of the Yankees maintaining their old "superiority" over the Sox.
I'd still probably give a slight overall edge to the Yanks, but, I feel much more confident - like many Sox fans - about the matchup.

Pettitte went 11-3 last season and has defied the odds by continuing to pitch at the highest level despite his age. He's 38 now as he announces his retirement today.
The Bombers were hoping that Pettitte would remain in their already-shaky starting rotation.
Now, the Yanks' rotation is even more shaky. Last season, the Yanks' starting pitchers collective ERA ranked 22nd in Major League Baseball, according to a recent post by Cliff Corcoran, a writer for S.I./com. The Yankees, despite that horrible stat, relied on their fantastic hitting to make it to the ACLS in 2010 before losing badly to the Texas Rangers.
The Yanks will again have C./C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett back as starters, but their #4 and # 5 starters are not confirmed and are unlikely to match the quality of the Red Sox' #4 and #5.
Also, consider the context: Sabathia is coming off two outstanding seasons. Is he likely to do that in a third consecutive year? Maybe he'll be good, but I doubt he can be quite as dazzling.
Hughes' numbers were impressive last year. He finished at 18-8, but, Corcoran's S.I./com article reminded me his year wasn't what it appeared. In his final 23 starts, Hughes posted a 5.05 ERA and he benefited from tremendous run support, Corcoran wrote. (an average of 6.75 runs per game he pitched) Burnett finished at 10-15 in 2010 and had a lousy year across the board. Plus, consider that Burnett had consistent injury problems before he arrived in NY, and, yet, has been healthy during his two year stint. At 34, coming off his poor year, is he likely to be a healthy, incredible "ace" in 2011? I doubt it.
So, if you look at the questions facing Hughes and Burnett and then factor in the likely limitations of the two unknowns the Yanks designate to fill out their rotation, it's fair to say their rotation has not looked this potentially flawed in many years.

If one considers the Red Sox rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka, it seems the Sox have an indisputable edge on paper. Of course, Beckett and Lackey have a lot to prove after their sub-par seasons and we simply don't know if one or both are facing an unavoidable drop in their "stuff" at this stage of their careers. I worry, in particular, about Beckett, who has been unable to throw his fastball as hard the past two years -- when that has been his signature pitch his whole career. Lackey's fastball also lacked the zip of his past seasons. So, we just won't know until the late spring whether one or both of these guys appears on the "down side." Or, perhaps one or both will work on their problems in spring training and come back strong.
However the details evolve, I cannot believe that Beckett and Lackey together will be worse than the #4 and #5 newcomers to the Yankee rotation. And, I think Lester and Buchholz match up against Sabathia and Hughes because even if Sabathia is the best, our #2, I'd argue, is better than Hughes.
Dice-K looked decent for much of last season, but, he still has bad habits that are unlikely to go away. If the Sox could trade Dice-K, I'd do it right now.

Pettitte's departure reminds me that the old Yankee-Red Sox rivalry is not far from a total transformation. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are getting older and won't be the hitting threats they once were. Even Mariano Rivera cannot pitch forever. Plus, on our side, David Ortiz is playing what will likely be his last year for the Red Sox. So, all of the players who were part of the unique excitement of 2004 will soon be fading or off both of these two great teams.

It seems that something different is going on with the Yankees in early 2011. GM Brian Cashman is having public disagreements with the owners. Yankee management was stupid enough to get into a public spat with Jeter over his contract a couple of months ago. The team looks more fragile. Could the team be headed for an unusually bad year?

That's unlikely, but, Pettitte's departure will make things harder in the Bronx.

What's Up with Papelbon?

Large questions surround Jonathan Papelbon right now. Fans are wondering if the affable, fist-pumping closer will be able to return to top form for one last year, or, if 2011 will bring a continuation of subpar performance as he prepares to say goodbye.

First, is there still a chance the 30-year-old Papelbon may be traded before the 2011 season? How about being traded during the season, particularly at the trading deadline if he's not performing that well? Second, can he still pitch well enough to serve as the team's closer? Third, how will he feel about the addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen?


Beyond that, what was Papelbon's reaction to the Red Sox making an off-season offer to NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera - even if it was only semi-serious? (It was a three-year offer for $51 million, after all)


In summary, the situation with Papelbon does not appear to be nearly as "settled" as Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has suggested. The Red Sox have said they expect Jenks and Daniel Bard to share the role of setting up Papelbon, who they've expressed confidence in.


That's the key question, of course: can Papelbon can regain his effectiveness after the 2010 season, when he had a career-record number of eight blown saves? The crux of concern is that Papelbon's fastball is not what it used to be. What made Papelbon's fastball terrific was its "late life" - which often result in batters swinging at strike three. However, in the past two seasons, Papelbon's fastball has often lacked some of its giddy-up and become a very hittable, "straight" fastball. In fact, while in 2009, Papelbon's fastball regained some movement late in the season, in 2010, Papelbon seemed to have more permanently lost the "zip" needed.
Worsening matters, Papelbon's command of that straighter fastball has been average or poor much of the time, resulting in him giving up hits, including far more home runs, and many more walks than earlier in his career.

By the end of the 2010 season, I got the impression that Papelbon simply couldn't throw his "old" moving fastball - period. Every outing, he'd throw his "new" straighter fastball - often at slightly less velocity- and hitters had no trouble getting wood on the ball. Often Papelbon also
lacked any control and threw his fastballs down or near the middle of the plate. This bad combination resulted in many shaky appearances; in fact, his performances caused him to narrowly avoid more blown saves than the eight he suffered.

Papelbon has to find a way to salvage his pitching. Either he has used his off-season workouts and conditioning to try an approach that will bring back the late life on his heater OR he needs to really develop one of his other pitches further. I don't think an occasional split-fingered fastball or mediocre slider will be enough for Papelbon.

So, as it turns out, the potential impact of Jenks is the least of Papelbon's concerns. Hopefully, Jenks will improve on his last few seasons of pitching in subpar form, but, regardless, Papelbon needs all the help he can get. If he continues to pitch OK but keeps declining a bit, Papelbon will leave after 2011 and Bard will likely become the new closer. (Unless Jenks surprises the hell out of everyone and outpitches Bard or convinces the Sox to leave Bard in the setup role)

Papelbon is entering his 6th year no the Red Sox. He's in his final year of arbitration and is expected to work out another one-year deal for approximately $11 million. He's said all along he looked forward to becoming a free agent, but, the irony is that now, unless he can turn things around, he won't attract many interested teams.

It's a shame that Papelbon appears to be following the cycle of most closers. They reach their peak early and pitch their hearts out, but, then, their skills decline rather fast too.

I hope Papelbon can somehow revive his old fastball. He could make all the difference in the Red Sox chances to win it all in 2011. He certainly made a difference in contributing to the 2007 championship.

If Papelbon can come back in 2011, he'll be defeating all the odds and the trends. If, by chance, he has pitched his best baseball, he's already given Red Sox fans many thrills.

Reactions to the Red Sox' Terrific Off-Season - So Far

The Red Sox recent signing of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford has been a "positive shock" to
fans across New England. The team, on paper, is argubly in a much stronger position to contend for a championship. On the other hand, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in projections because unforeseen developments often alter things.

As this blog is posted, the team still has a long way to go to inject much-needed improvement to its bullpen, which performed very poorly in 2010.

Among my many reactions to these "mega-deals" are the following:

• I think it's obvious that the Sox ownership and management team felt it had to make some major moves in this particular off-season. It appears as if owner John Henry - perhaps joined by others - told General Manager Theo Epstein that, unlike in past offseasons, they not only were OK with signing star players to long, very expensive contracts, but, in fact, enthusiastically supported Epstein taking this approach. Epstein has consistently avoided signing elite players to deals of more than four years. This is a view I've heard expressed by Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on "98.5 - The Sports Hub," the sports radio talk show that has successfully challenged WEEI in Boston in the past year. Indeed, it is almost inconceivable, to me, to imagine Epstein orchestrating the Crawford deal on his own. Crawford is a very good player, but, he's not worth signing for $142 million over seven years! I accept that Theo has long eyed and planned to go after Gonzalez. The significant decline in the team's television ratings on NESN last summer was an important factor. Plus, the team's top officials, including Theo, had to be aware of the lack of "buzz" about the 2010 Red Sox. Having said all this, I still am amazed the team agreed to two huge deals in the same winter. Any doubts about whether the Sox were willing to go head-to-head spending-wise with the NY Yankees after the team's struggles since the 2009 playoffs have been eliminated in one fell swoop.
• By adding Gonzalez and Crawford to the young leaders of the team - like Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - Sox officials have increased the odds of the team being in the competitive mix for the next several years at least.
• The team's hitting will be much better, but, people are overlooking that Gonzalez and Crawford are essentialy replacing the hitting of Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, who, last year, consistently led the team's offense and came up with clutch hits, particularly Beltre. Still, Beltre performed "over his head" last year and there are concrete reasons to believe "Gonzo" really will thrive in Fenway Park and hit far more home runs and extra base hits there compared to his output in San Diego. Gonzalez, strikingly, has hit better on the road than in PETCO field, a huge "pitchers' park."
• The Yankees' failure to sign Cliff Lee, their top priority for the winter, cannot be overestimated in terms of its potential impact on the Sox-Yanks battle to win the AL East. The Yankees' starting pitching is what did them in in the 2010 playoffs. Now, it's unlikely they'll add a top-notch starter. In addition, Andy Pettitte may or may not return. C.C. Sabathia is a bit older and less likely to keep performing at such an incredible level. Lastly, several of the Bombers' stars - Jeter, Posada, Rivera - are getting old, making the odds of at least some decline in ability or performance more likely.
• I have a strong opinion on the Sox lineup that I haven't heard others express so far. I believe the team should consider trying to convince Crawford to return to hitting in the leadoff spot, thereby replacing Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, Crawford has to be OK with this move and media reports have suggested that he prefers to NOT hit lead-off, however, if, in fact, he might accept the move, he'd be far better than Ellsbury and that would allow Youkilis to bat third and Gonzalez to bat clean-up, with David Ortiz in the fifth spot. When you leave Ellsbury in the lead-off spot and bat Pedroia second and Crawford third, you force Youkilis to bat fifth, presumably behind Gonzalez. There is no way, in my view, that keeping Ellsbury in the lead-off spot should force Youkilis, who has been the team's best hitter, to bat fifth. You want Youk to get more at-bats than that. Jacoby Ellsbury has been quite average as the leadoff hitter in the lineup. He still lacks patience and is not able to wait for the ball to come all the way in -- a skill that good "contact" hitters have. Good leadoff hitters hit for contact and walk often but Ellsbury does neither. Beyond all this, Ellsbury can hit in the 9th spot and be a dangerous bridge to Crawford and the top of the lineup. That way, the lineup would benefit from the back-to-back speed of Ellsbury and Crawford without the liability of Ellsbury's limited hitting skill impacting the strong hitters behind him.
• Of course, the Red Sox are more likely to hit Ellsbury first, Pedrois second and Crawford third with Gonzo at cleanup and Youkilis fifth and Big Papi sixth. Even that way, the lineup is much harder for a pitcher to get through - with JD Drew the likely 7th hitter followed by Marco Scutaro and Jared Saltalamacchia - in whatever sequence.
• I wrote about Gonzo's likely impact in a previous blog, but I think Crawford's performance is a bit harder to predict. His capacity to play outstanding in left field - at Fenway and on the road - is easy to predict. Crawford may quickly remind people of Yaz - and, possibly, better, at Fenway. He's a superlative fielder, and, when he gets even more used to the Monster, he'll probably start throwing runners out. Crawford is a very good hitter whose strength is his consistency to make contact. He has hit in the low .300 area in five of his nine seasons and .296 in two other seasons - meaning he's basically been at .300 for most of his career. Likewise, Crawford has gotten more than 180 hits in six seasons and 177 in a seventh. He has hit more than 10 HRs in six seasons. Last year, he reached his highest home run total at 19.
• It seems - from the early exposure to Gonzo and Crawford - that both have an excellent attitude in terms of effort and hunger to win it all, but, also, neither seems likely to be fazed by playing in Boston. In fact, it's easy to imagine both guys loving the additional attention and appreciation of the fans here compared to in San Diego and Tampa Bay, where things were a lot more low-key.
• It's absolutely amazing that the Red Sox, after several years of avoiding big, expensive, long-term deals, have made two within the past two weeks. Of course, they completed a trade of three minor-league players for Gonzalez and have to work out a long-term deal. It's expected the team will end up paying Gonzo over $20 million a year for at least six years, and, maybe seven. The Red Sox clearly concluded they had to give a large, exciting jumpstart to the team, after a 2010 season when people were losing interest. Now, Epstein and Henry have put together a new "nucleus" that should keep the Red Sox competitive for a number of years. I expect a World Series within the next five years. Back when I was growing up in the 1960s, I would have never said that. Let's face it: While this Henry/Lucchino/Epstein management team has its flaws, they deserve enormous credit for bringing a whole new era to the Red Sox that just keeps continuing. I can't wait for the 2011 season.

It's "Gonzo" or Bust for 2011 Red Sox

Just when pressure was building on the Red Sox to make a major deal before 2011, Sox GM Theo Epstein has pulled out his "ace in the hole."

The Red Sox, as of today, have agreed to a deal, in principle, for San Diego Padres' first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres' slugger, viewed as one of the best hitters in the game, will automatically become the new "centerpiece" of their lineup, giving them a much-needed boost in power. (A serious power vacuum has existed since the days when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were both hitting in their prime at the 3rd and 4th spots in the order)


Boston's baseball writers and serious fans were beginning to question how the Sox brass could assemble a competitive team for 2011 when Epstein suddenly stepped up negotiations for Gonzalez in the past two days. Now, as of Dec. 4th, a deal has been concluded that has the Sox trading a few top prospects - including pitcher Casey Kelly, - for Gonzo, a proven slugger who can become the "center" of their lineup. Gonzalez and the Red Sox will soon iron out the details of his new contract, expected to be an expensive, long-term package.


What's understated is the extent to which the Red Sox desparately needed to get Gonzalez. The Sox' off-season until now has been a real "downer" - with the loss of catcher Victor Martinez, on of its best hitters, and serious signs that third baseman Adrian Beltre is unlikely to return. Beltre was the Red Sox' best hitter in 2010 and carried the team on his back for key stretches. The Red Sox, in the past few days, had met with free agent outfielders Carl Crawfod of the Tampa Bay Rays and Jason Werth of the Phillies, but, I'd argue that neither of those two are worth large, long-term investments. Crawford, with his blazing speed, is more multi-talented than Werth, but, still not the kind of "game-changer" a team necessarily wants to commit more than $80 - $100 million to for five or six years.


The team was already short on hitting going into 2010, but, without Martinez and Beltre, the "hole" in their 2011 lineup would have been gargantuan without the addition of Gonzalez. In fact, I'd argue that, even with Gonzalez, the Sox need a bit more hitting to compete with the Yankees in the AL East. The subtraction of Beltre and Martinez is still greater than the addition of Gonzo. Of course, the Red Sox are not done with their dealing yet. Perhaps they'll still add Phillies' free agent outfielder Werth, but, I doubt they'll follow through, now, on either Werth or Crawford, though, due to the size, length and cost of the Gonzo deal.


Gonzalez, in the 2010 season, batted .298, with 31 HR, 101 RBI, and an OPS of .904. His numbers have been excellent for the past five years or so, but, what enhances them is that he hit that well in PETCO field, which is widely recognized as a "pitchers ballpark." Many believe he'll hit considerably better at Fenway Park, which is suited for lefthanded hitters who can take advantage of hitting balls of the Green Monster in left field. Gonzalez, who has an "inside-out" swing, will likely grow fond of the Monster and may benefit, like other Bosox lefthanded sluggers, from the right-field fence being moved in a bit before the start of the 2011 season.


Unknown, of course, is whether Gonzalez will end up having the personality, temperment and style that makes it easier to succeed in Boston, which some players find very tough or impossible to play in. I don't know anything about this guy, but he'll benefit from having some solid, unselfish teammates like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz.


Will the Red Sox add more hitting? I hope so. Many writers and fans have forgotten that the team never really replaced Manny Ramirez, who left in the middle of the 2008 season. They didn't replace Jason Bay, who they let go, as a free agent, at the end of the 2009 season. They got some power back with Victor Martinez, at the 2009 trading deadline, but, Victor is gone now. And, the same goes with their temporary benefits last year from Adrian Beltre, who is widely expected to sign with another team now.


I can see a lineup now consisting of: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Dustin Pedroia 3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Kevin Youkilis 5. David Ortiz 6. JD Drew 7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia 8. ________ 9. Marco Scutaro


I left the #8 spot blank because it's unclear who will play left field and where that person will be inserted in the lineup. I still think that when you consider Ellsbury's limited hitting skills, the fading abilities of Ortiz and the ineffectiveness of Drew, the team's overall hitting will still be lacking against the good teams. I have to admit, however, that Gonzo has reignited some of my hopes.


Now, the team needs to find new blood for its incomplete, weak bullpen, and, it just may round out into an overall condition that allows it to compete in the AL East much better than in 2010.

As Victor Leaves, Sox Fade Further

Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein apparently remains in denial about his team's hitting ability. Or, perhaps he's aware of the hitting deficit and he's preparing for another "bridge year" in 2011.

Either way, the Red Sox just allowed the team to get a lot worse by letting free agent catcher Victor Martinez get away. He was one of the best hitters on the team.

Worsening matters, the Sox could have easily signed Martinez to a new deal. Martinez, unlike some free agents, had expressed a desire to stay in Boston. He also happened to be a leader in the clubhouse.

Martinez was one of the only hitters on the team - except Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - who could hit for contact. Victor could also hit for power, and, I'd say that only he and Youkilis could hit for both. Now, with Adrian Beltre almost certainly out the door, the team faces a tremendous void in hitting. Signing free agent Jason Werth would not make up for Victor's bat.

That's what's bad here: Even if the Sox "replace" Martinez' hitting, they'll still be short. The 2010 Red Sox - despite what many baseball pundits said - lacked the kind of hitting you need to win a championship. Yeah, I heard repeatedly that the team was among MLB's best in "runs scored" for the first half of the season. My reaction: It was a misleading stat. The team bashed the ball vs. average pitchers and often couldn't hit better pitchers. They hit fastballs but often suffered vs. pitchers with good breaking or off-speed stuff. When Pedroia, and, then, Youkilis went down with injuries, the team's weak hitting was more exposed.

Bottom-line: Since Manny Ramirez's departure in the middle of the 2008 season, the Red Sox hitting has declined, dipping below what's necessary for the team to advance in the playoffs. People still don't seem to realize how special the Ramirez/Ortiz combination was in the 2003-07 period: They were like Gehrig and Ruth -- a unique strength that helped carry the Sox to the championships. By contrast, have baseball writers and fans already forgotten how pitifully the Sox hit in the 2009 playoffs - when the Angels swept them?

How did this happen? Why hasn't management found more good hitters for its lineup? I think part of it is that Epstein and Company have tried to convince the fan base that "things are OK" - when they're not. Last year, for example, we heard endlessly about how well "substitute" players like Daniel Nava and Billy Hall performed when, the team really played above its talent level and gutted out wins. In reality, the team's hitting was not as good as others - such as the Yankees or Phillies, and, certainly no better than teams like the Blue Jays or the Rays.

If you go up and down the Sox lineup, I think Epstein and others have some degree of denial about almost every player. Jacoby Ellsbury? He's been overrated by everybody, when, he still hasn't shown he can hit different kinds of pitches and wait long enough to make contact more often. Despite his speed, he's a very "average" leadoff hitter because of his "average" hitting.

Pedroia? A good hitter who can grind out at-bats as well as anyone on the team. He CAN hit for contact and hit a variety of pitches. Youkilis? The best hitter on the team - period. Ortiz? A hitter in decline who covered up his deteriorating skills by belting home runs fairly often. Ortiz is a very good "mistake pitch" hitter, but he can no longer hit for contact well. Many pitchers can fool him with breaking stuff. It was crazy to pay him $12.5 million for 2011 while choosing to let Victor sign a reasonable deal with the Tigers.

Theo got incredibly lucky with Adrian Beltre. Yes, he hoped Beltre would hit better in Fenway in a year before free agency, but, Beltre was off the charts! Beltre carried the team for good chunks of the season, belting doubles and home runs off the Monster. Without Beltre's exceptional season, the Sox would have finished in much more mediocre fashion and been further exposed.

What other hitters are even on this team? JD Drew? Theo's denial about Drew suggests he has an unusual "delusion" about this particular player. Drew didn't even put up his usual "average" numbers in 2010. He was simply bad - along with his regular bad habits -- failing to hit with men on base, hitting endless "dribblers" to the second baseman and choosing to be picky at the plate rather than swinging at borderline strikes and getting more hits to help his team.

Marco Scutaro? He hit decently last year and showed a lot of guts to keep playing despite a bad injury. (Why didn't the team sit him down more in the end of the season rather than risk further injury?) Theo got Mike Cameron for last year despite his weak hitting. Cameron missed most of the season, but, he would have been unable to add much punch, anyway.

There is no need to examine any other players. Epstein, owner Johne Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino must snap out of their denial about the team's hitting. The Red Sox had a fairly weak hitting lineup with Victor Martinez. Now, it is very weak. (Let's not forget the team lost Mike Lowell too, who has been a reliable clutch hitter for years here)

I fear that Theo and his baseball operations team are so "stat-happy" that they've lost sight of the critical, intangible, human factors in making a good baseball team. I believe that "clutch hitting" does exist -- despite Bill James' "study" or whoever concluded, ridiculously, that it's wrong to think some hitters are much better in the clutch. How do you explain Derek Jeter's hitting in late innings vs. the Red Sox then? I digress, but, my point is you can't build a lineup based on stats. Does Theo want a lineup filled with JD Drews? God, that's a nightmare I cannot face. I don't care what the baseball geeks might say: Drew is one of the most over-rated players I've ever seen in my life. Yet Theo Epstein still thinks he's terrific.

I bring this up because Theo had better wake up and admit the team needs "different" players if it is to return to the glory days of 2004 and 2007. I mean we need a "star" player or two back here. It was Manny Ramirez - as much as any other Sox player - who helped bring us the two World Series championships. It's not a coincidence that Manny was signed by Dan Duquette - not Theo Epstein, who would never sign a guy to a big, long contract like Manny's in Boston. Oh, and, yes, Duquette signed Pedro Martinez to an expensive contract too. Manny and Pedro brought exciting, unforgettable baseball moments to Boston that will be remembered far longer than anything JD Drew has done.

You need stars, Theo! Ever since the Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, they've been in a slump in signing big-name stars here. Let's hope it ends soon. Theo's challenge now will be to sign more than one star in the next year or two because Victor Martinez' departure has left the team's hitting deficit much deeper. Bring on Adrian Gonzalez.

Red Sox Should Not Extend David Ortiz

It makes no sense for the Red Sox to sign David Ortiz to any deal longer than one year. I mean NO sense. So, if Ortiz, in the next day or two, reiterates his current stand - that he wants anything longer than the team's one-year option the team can offer him, the Red Sox must simply say "No."


In my view, it'd be preferable for the Red Sox to cut ties with Ortiz now simply because his abilities have begun to fade noticeably, and, it's usually wise to part with such a player -- even a legendary star like Big Papi. Especially when that player would earn $12.5 million in 2011. I have the feeling that, in 2010, the Sox got about the best Ortiz has left in him. He hit 32 HRs, knocked in 102 RBIs and batted .270.


Though I love Ortiz and view him as the player most responsible for bringing the the Sox a championship in 2004, I can point to the same evidence as any serious Sox observers. In 2004, what made Ortiz scary was that he could hit for power and contact. Now, approaching 2011, he's become primarily a "mistake pitch" hitter. He can nail fastballs that catch too much of the plate, but, he cannot drive different pitches on the corners for line drives to all parts of the field like he used to. He "can be pitched to" much more easily, and, is far more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Ortiz hits lefthanded pitchers strikingly worse than he did before.


So, why have all of Boston's baseball writers and broadcast journalists seemed to conclude that, of course, the Red Sox should give Ortiz his option year, and, some have supported considering an extension for him? Well, it's unsurprising, in many ways because Boston baseball media often don't take stands that are the least bit unconventional, unpredictable or original. In this case, supporting a tough stance vs. Ortiz would also bring a bit of conflict and controversy into play. Boston's baseball writers tend to stay in a safe "pack."

Yes, Big Papi's departure would force the Red Sox to replace his bat in the lineup. Yes, they'd have to have a few options in mind at this point ......but, the team should have thought about all that by now. If the 2010 Sox were willing to look toward the future, why can't they do so in 2011? Investing in a younger player in his prime as DH makes more sense than paying such a huge salary to an older, fading player. (Most other designated hitters - including Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui - earn salaries about half that of Ortiz).

Why should the team pay its aging DH one of the highest annual salaries given that he's in decline? Why should the team plan on keeping him around any more than one season given the erosion of Ortiz's skills in the past two years. I'm not saying Ortiz had "bad" seasons in 2009 or 2010. He ended with good numbers in 2010, but one can see what's on the horizon.

The Red Sox, in recent years, have sometimes made unwise moves, when it comes to contracts. The team gave Josh Beckett an extension before it had to, and Beckett has not performed up to expectations since then. The team chose to over-pay John Lackey, and his 2010 performance was mediocre. The team over-paid JD Drew, giving him a $13 million annual salary that he never earned and has never matched in performance.

If the Sox are trying to build a young team for the future - with its top-notch pitchers and players like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - why do they feel obligated to keep Ortiz any more than one year at such a high salary?

The answer is: they don't need to. They cannot keep Big Papi purely for what he's given the team in the past. No matter when Ortiz leaves, his contributions in 2004 and beyond will never be forgotten.

Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose!

The New York Yankees lost the 2010 ACLS to the Texas Rangers. It's been over since last week, but I just want to say it again. It feels good. Let's see: how about expressing it a few different ways?
-- The Yankees failed to win a championship for one more year of the Jeter/Rivera/Pettite/ Posada era that links them to the other painful times they won since 1996.
-- The Yankees lost in 2010 despite being loaded up with so much talent that one could argue they should have won another title. So, in a way, the lineup with Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, Cano, Posada, Swisher and Granderson should have won. If you factor in Sabathia, Pettite, Rivera and the rest, yeah, they blew it. I still feel the positive after-effects!
--The Yankees lost and their veteran players will all be a year older in 2011 - That's a good thing.
--The Yankees have won only one championship (2009) in the past ten years. Translation: They've been the most loaded team in baseball for virtually this entire decade, but, have found ways to lose in 9 of the last 10 years. (8 times in the playoffs) Yippee!

It remains a mystery, even to me, why I hate the Yankees so much, but, it's true.

I want to highlight a few other things I noticed about their performance that led to their exit:

In my view, some of their players didn't appear to be that fired up about the series vs. the Rangers. They didn't seem to care quite as much about whether they won or lost. Maybe it's understandable, in a way. Guys like Jeter and Posada have won so many damned times that they might have a little "playoff burnout."
Staying on Jeter for a second, he had a particularly mediocre series - by Jeter's post-season standards. Could it be that the Yankee captain is finally showing his age? He's getting married soon, right? Maybe he's a bit distracted by off-field activity, for a change.
Posada seemed to show his age a bit too. He got a few hits, but, in other at-bats, he seemed a bit
slower in his reaction time than some of his moments vs. the Red Sox in past playoffs. Plus, he's become a lousy catcher in terms of his ability to throw out runners attempting steals. Posada's arm is simply not as quick or accurate. Plus, Posada's defense behind the plate seems to have slipped a bit. Every year, in the playoffs, he seems to have more trouble preventing passed balls.
Mariano Rivera looked dominant and fine. No surprise there. Rivera never seeems to change. Pettite pitched well in his one game. No surprise there.

C.C. Sabathia had one good game and one not-so-good game - That was a change. A.J. Burnett, who pitched well for part of one game, still blew it by giving up a big 3-run homer. That seems a trend with Burnett, who the Yankees payed a bundle to get. And, besides Kerry Wood, who pitched OK, the rest of the Yankee bullpen performed badly. That was good to see.

So, is it possible that we're seeing a few "chinks" in the Yankee armor? Are there signs of "decline" in the Evil Empire? I hope so, but, my guess is they'll acquire more star players to try to bolster their sickening, monopolistic hold on baseball.
And, I know one thing for sure: Come Opening Day of the 2011 season, I'll still hate the Yankees as much as ever.