State of the Sox Heading Into July

The Red Sox keep rolling - with pitching - on top of the AL East. In fact, I feel - as the season nears the All-Star Break - that this team feels more defined by its pitching strength than any team in my lifetime.
Their rotation has gotten stronger as Beckett and Lester have found their comfort zones and performed superbly in recent weeks. The bullpen has continued to perform with amazing steadiness. Overall, while the team's hitting is good, it's pitching is its essence - its core strength. I'm trying to recall other Sox teams with pitching that approached this 2009 staff. Of course, the 2004 staff - with Schilling, Pedro and Lowe was damned good, but, Lowe didn't have a great regular season - and saved, by far, his best pitching for the playoffs. Schilling had his "A" game most of the season, but, Pedro, while very good, was past his absolute prime years back in 1999 - 2000. (although 20 -4 in 2004 wasn't bad, either, huh?) My point is that this 2009 pitching is top-notch from beginning to end -- and, the team is more dependent on its pitching this year than in 2004. Think back to the hitting lineup of 2004 vs today's. Then, we had Manny, Damon, Mueller, Millar and Ortiz at top of his prime.
The pitching in other years just doesn't compare. Yes, it was good in 2007, but this year's bullpen is better. In 2003, the bullpen in late innings was good (Timlin, Embree, Williamson) but, not as good throughout and the same was true of starting rotation. In 1978, Eckersley was the ace, but, if Mike Torrez was considered in top of rotation, that reminds us of its lower quality. (Tiant and Lee were good for half season)
The point is the Red Sox pitching is as good as any other team's in baseball. At the start of 2009, the conventional wisdom was that the Yanks had a better rotation. I don't buy that and our bullpen is superior to New York's...........but.........................I still think the Sox need to make a significant move at the trading deadline.

The Sox Should Deal for a Good Hitter

With their pitching set up to win it all and David Ortiz hitting again, what are the Red Sox needs?

(I just learned Mike Lowell has been placed on the 15-day DL, so, that will hurt the team before the break and the uncertainty about Lowell from this point on will impact Theo Epstein's outlook at the trading deadline)

Some observers are saying the Sox don't need anything. They've shown they're the best in baseball with their current lineup. However, they're not factoring in that - right now - the Red Sox are in a unique position: They have the second-best record in baseball but they also have a "surplus" of talent, particularly when considering the number of first-rate minor-league prospects. They are in a better position to make a trade than I can recall in any season.

So, how can the Red Sox choose NOT to make a trade, and, thereby give this great team an even BETTER chance to win the championship in 2009? I think the arguments to trade for a hitter or two are absolutely compelling. With Lowell's injury, this is even more clear. Now, I admit I don't know who will be available, so, my point is weakened or irrelevant if no good players are around on July 31.

The logical position to insert a very good hitter is at shortstop. Neither Nick Green or Julio Lugo can be relied on for good field and consistent hitting the rest of the season. Yes, Green has performed beyond expectations, gotten key hits and been acceptable at short despite a number of errors. I'd rather have a better player, if possible.

Other observations from recent games:

• Ramon Ramirez has been in a little pitching slump and I hope he comes out of it soon. Last night, he looked "strong" - as Eckersley said on TV - but, he still gave up a hit and a walk in the inning he pitched.
• Big Papi is still not all the way back, in my view. I think he's likely to get a bit better if he, in fact, still has the same talent and was in bad habits at the plate. His swing has been slightly off on some pitches down the middle of the plate, making him pop up or hit fouls on pitches I think he would have more often belted for hits in the past. On the other hand, the trends are still good with Papi. His hitting eye seems back - He's been very selective -as in the past and drawn many walks. I think if he waits a tiny bit longer for the ball to get closer to him -as he used to - he'll regain even more of his form. Then again, maybe I have to face that he's not likely to return to the same level. We shall see.
• I still don't feel Ellsbury looks good at the plate. I wish he'd change his swing and swing through the ball more. He continues to have that short, choppy swing - It looks too short - like he's not following through and "carrying" the ball on the bat long enough.
• Dustin Pedroia is bound to get even more hot as the season continues, but, I've really noticed that he gets far less pitches down the middle this season. Teams know how good he is now and they keep pitching him on the outside corner. While he's adjusted and can hit line-drive singles to right, he has not pulled as many line drives off the wall this year, it seems. Pedroia is the least of my concerns.
• Papelbon, in a couple of recent games, has worried me a bit -- again. If I had to summarize the differences with Papelbon, one thing stands out: When he throws a fastball down the middle this year, the hitter gets wood on it more often than in 2007 or 2008 - fouling it off, making an out or getting a hit. His fastball sometimes still lacks giddy-up and other times, the hitters are just more ready for Papelbon's fastball and he can't get away with those pitches right over the plate. (In the past, he could often just blow the ball by the hitter now matter if down the middle or on the corners) Now, Papelbon must either add that old zip to his heater or simply hit the corners more. It's a tribute to him that he's still performing so well, but, I think he'll have to make adjustments if he's going to keep it up into the playoffs. He can't keep getting away with these outings with walks, hits and so many pitches.

Dice-K to DL; Red Sox' Depth Paying Off

Well, in my last post a week ago, I was suggesting that Dice-K be placed on the disabled list -- and I'm glad that has finally happened. (He had another poor outing June 19th) Maybe he can address his pitching problems in time to return with more effectiveness this season, but, I think it's going to take him most of the summer. Who knows if he'll even be back this season?

I think, despite the reluctance of Red Sox to acknowledge it, a sizeable part of Matsuzaka's difficulty is physical. His arm seems really tired. Perhaps his lack of velocity and other symptoms are related to his entire career, which includes years of a heavy pitching workload in Japan.

In any event, with John Smoltz filling Dice-K's spot in the rotation and Clay Buchholz ready to come up anytime, it seems the Sox starting pitching will remain as strong as ever.

The Red Sox' depth is emerging as a strength perhaps unmatched by any other team in Major League Baseball in 2009. So far, the depth of their bullpen has been even more impressive.

Unlike most baseball seasons in my life, I cannot think of a relief pitcher who might come into a game who is "bad" or sub-par. Almost every pitcher in the bullpen has pitched well. Javier Lopez, who didn't perform, is no longer on the team. Even lately, when individual pitchers like Ramon Ramirez, who has been terrific most of the season, has run into a rough patch, it doesn't matter as much because there is always another relief pitcher to come in and get the job done.
Yesterday, in a very unusual moment, Ramirez and Hideki Okajima both gave up hits to the Braves, but the Sox still hung in there and won on Nick Green's walk-off home run.

On top of pitchers' performing, David Ortiz appears further along on his way back to form.. He has found his timing and looks very different at the plate in the past two or three weeks. It still feels a tiny bit early to know if Big Papi can stay in this groove, but, what's important is that he's demonstrated his problems didn't seem tied to lost bat speed, but, rather, mechanical details he can address. If Ortiz can keep hitting like this, this may put the Sox over the top.

I think they could still use more hitting, and I hope Theo Epstein explores potential moves at the trading deadline. Think about it: This is one of the few moments in recent Sox history when they can approach the trading deadline with a "surplus" of players - of pitchers! - they can use to get a player or two to strengthen their team. Shouldn't Theo seize this moment and make the Sox even more unbeatable? Yes, injuries might still be a huge factor, especially with older, veteran pitchers like Smoltz and Brad Penny in our rotation, but, that just bolsters the argument to add to our lineup.

Back to Matsuzaka a second: I still don't understand why baseball writers lack the confidence to identify what they see with their own eyes. They kept harping on Dice-K's performance in recent weeks rather than discussing how he looked on the mound. His fastball had become so flat and hittable. It lacked any zip. His breaking pitches were often a lot further out of the strike zone than usual. Why didn't any writers mention that something seemed wrong with Dice-K?
It seems they were too wrapped up in enjoying ripping into Matsuzaka in every other way and harping on how BAD he was. Sportswriters in this town have been too hard on Dice-K, in my view. Don't get me wrong: I've been annyed by Dice-K myself, but, I can at least acknowledge his positive moments. In his first year, he did well much of the time. I recall him baffling hitters in the best lineups like the Yankees. My point is: There's a difference between Matsuzaka not performing due to arm trouble and him not performing because he's simply a bad pitcher. Well, he's a very good pitcher with serious arm (and shoulder) problems, I'd say.
Last point: Another HUGE point not made often enough is that Matsuzaka has found it very hard to adjust to pitching in the United States. I think it's fairly clear that he cannot grip the American baseball as he could grip the ball in Japan. He cannot throw the same pitches in the US. (He throws his changeup only occasionally here despite his changeup being his strongest pitch in Japan!) Peter Gammons is the only baseball writer who I've noticed ever reporting on these important changes Matsuzaka had to make.

Dice-K Should Go Back on the Disabled List

Those of us who watched Dice-K Matsuzaka's performance this past Saturday night (June 13th) saw a pitcher who does not look close to how he pitched last year. Instead, he continued to not only pitch poorly, but, to appear at less than full strength.

Dice-K, in my view, has some physical problem that's making him ineffective. Maybe it's simply fatigue - in his arm or shoulder. I don't know. All I know is that he looked terrible. His fastball not only lacks velocity, but the kind of zip or giddy-up it has had in the past. His breaking pitches, particularly his normally-effective slider that cuts to the left, have been really bad and wild. He's lost much control of all his breaking pitches. All of this seems to point to an injury or health problem that must be addressed.

I predict the Red Sox will place Dice-K on the disabled list (DL) but, if they don't, they should.

I just hope Dice-K can improve in time to return to the rotation and be effective this season. He looks so bad and arm-weary that I worry this problem may be more long-lasting. Dice-K has, after all, pitched a ton of innings that might have contributed to general fatigue in his arm.

Addressing Questions On the Rotation

I think if Dice-K goes on the DL, it would make immediate decisions about which pitchers to include in the rotation much easier. You could move Smoltz into Dice-K-s spot - if, in fact, Smoltz pitches well in his next start in Pawtucket. (If Smotz, by chance, keeps giving up hits and runs in Pawtucket, perhaps he should, simply, not join the Red Sox at all).

In any event, it appears the Red Sox could benefit from taking a bit more time to make decisions about its rotation for the rest of the 2009 season. Brad Penny, so good against the Yankees last week, can get a couple of more starts to evaluate. The team can monitor Smoltz and Dice-K. Then, depending on their needs, they can decide if they might trade Penny or what other moves to make. Perhaps the next few weeks will make it easier to decide to bring Clay Buchholz up to the Sox.

I hope, when the dust clears, that Dice-K has a good-sized rest before he rejoins the staff or is allowed to keep pitching. Something is wrong with him and it makes zero sense, given our incredibly rare "surplus" of good pitchers, to "force things" with an unhealthy Dice-K. (Even Dice-K, in a rare interview with Foxsports.com last week, said that, after his previous start, he felt his pitching had been "plain" and described his inability to mix his "hard' stuff with his "softer" pitches.

On the Rest of the Team..............

This has been a terrific stretch for this team. Their sweep of the Yankees last week was impressive. especially their overall pitching - starting and bullpen. Lester and Beckett have been on fire. (OK, Beckett had one bad outing...) David Ortiz showed more signs of life in the past ten days than he has all season, hitting a couple of "Ortiz-type" home runs at Fenway and showing more patience at the plate. It seems, every night, a different player or two plays the key role in contributing to a win. Papelbon has kept getting the job done. A couple of relief pitchers had unusual, bad outings (Ramirez, Delcarmen, Bard yesterday) but, for the most part, have continued to excell. Hideki Okajima continues his stellar pitching.

If this team can be in first place - despite the ups and downs it has experienced so far - all indications suggest this Red Sox team will remain in serious contention all summer - and, if they can add a little more hitting - have as good a chance as any team to win the World Series.

Sox-Yanks Series A Good Indicator

Beckett Game a Terrific Start

How the Red Sox fare in this home series against the Yanks seems a good measure of their strength right now.

Last night, I attended the first game - watching Josh Beckett have one of his best outings ever (as a Red Sox player) against the Yankees. I was truly amazed at how effective Beckett was - given that I've watched him struggle in many games against the Bombers. Because Beckett relies so heavily on his fastball, I think it's always a challenge for him to get through the Yankee lineup of the past few years. Most of the Yanks are fantastic fastball hitters who blast any "mistake" pitches down the middle. Well, last night, Beckett obviously had excellent command of his fastball and he used his curve and changeup a lot, keeping the Yankees off balance.

I do not recall other Beckett outings vs. the Yankees when so few Yankees even hit the ball hard during the entire time Beckett was in there. They had only one hit - the groundball that Pedroia stopped, but, couldn't get a throw to first on.

Perhaps the rainy night affected the Yankees. Whatever it was, I was astonished that the All-Star lineup couldn't make better contact for six innings against Beckett. Delcarmen did OK and then Daniel Bard came in and just blew the ball by Texeira, A-Rod and Cano. Bard was throwing 98 - 99 - one pitch at 100 mph, and, I was sitting right down near home plate, and I'm telling you those great hitters could not get the bat around on Bard.

Of course, Ortiz' home run to center was a joy to watch -- Is he - maybe - really on his way back now? That home run -- unlike the others -- looked more like an old Papi home run. It was blasted, and, he knew it was gone.

What's Up with Matsuzaka?

It's very hard to understand where Dice-K is at this year. Is his arm still tired - partly due to his playing in the World Baseball Classic, or, is it perhaps cumulative fatigue from his whole career - including many long games he pitched for years in Japan? What's his attitude toward how he gets treated by John Farrell, the pitching coach, and Terry Francona?
Why does he show so little sign of changing the habits that cause him problems on the mound?
I ask these questions after Dice-K struggled in his last outing and lasted only five innings - again.
He didn't walk any hitters, raising questions as to whether he did so to "comply" with a more stern request from Francona and Farrell. He just doesn't seem as sharp this year and no sportswriters seem able to get interviews with him - or to get the truth through other sources.

It's time the Red Sox got a better handle on Matsuzaka and shared the insights with the fans.

It's Dice-K's THIRD season here and the only way I found out he has difficulty gripping the American baseball compared to the ball used in Japan was by catching a Peter Gammons column within the past year that revealed that. Matsuzaka does better gripping the smaller ball used in Japan. To me, Dice-K's problems gripping the ball seem likely related to his chronic problems with control. Gammons reported that Dice-K stopped using his changeup as much due to the
issues gripping the ball - and, apparently, he dropped one or two other pitches in order to focus on his remaining pitches.

Matsuzaka has stubbornly clung to his habit of "nibbling" on the corners when good hitters face him - and, often, walking them rather than challenging them with pitches over or close to the plate. He does this despite having two or more terrific "breaking" pitches - his cutter, his slider or even his curve, which he doesn't use often. Dice-K does not seem interested in changing his approach -and that must be driving Farrell and Francona crazy.

Last year, I defended Dice-K when people criticized him. He had a great year, but fans got on him for pitching so many five-inning games due to control problems. Well, he was great.
Now, that he's in his third year hear, I've been more impacted by the cumulative effect of watching him walk opposing batters needlessly in every game he pitches.
If Matsuzaka does not improve this year, it will put Theo Epstein in a difficult position. He invested so much in this pitcher, but, he's got a lot of good young pitchers waiting to get a turn now. The Red Sox should treat Matsuzaka like all the other pitchers.

Sox Could Look Very Different Before Long

One gets a sense this Red Sox team may look very different come August 1 - the day after the trading deadline. Or, perhaps, big moves will happen before the All-Star break in mid-July.

Certainly, it's hard to imagine the Red Sox leaving David Ortiz in his role as designated hitter much longer - especially if he does not improve in June. In fact, I think it he keeps struggling this month, either he'll be put on the disabled list (DL) or the team and Ortiz will somehow come up with some response that allows him to practice his hitting or weigh his future.

If Ortiz himself feels he's healthy, but, unable to make progress by July, I would not be shocked if he retired from baseball. I doubt this will happen right away and I hope, obviously, he starts hitting again. I think he'd go on the DL for a while to give himself a last opportunity before he quit, but, if that didn't work, what could he do? I think Ortiz, unlike other players, has so much pride that he'd choose to take himself out earlier rather than later. Who knows?

The shortstop position remains a source of uncertaintly. Will Jed Lowrie be strong enough and good enough - coming back after his injury - to stay there until the end of the year? Will Lugo and Green keep platooning - and performing in mediocre fashion - until Lowrie's return or will Theo Epstein go get another shortstop, perhaps to play temporarily? I think they can survive until Lowrie returns without a move.

Meanwhile, the overall hole on the team, in my view, is in its hitting. When they face a half-decent pitcher, their hitting can become spotty and erratic very quickly. Youkilis and Pedroia are likely to be steady, but I think Bay and Lowell are likely to have a few ups and downs. Varitek is unlikely to belt as many home runs. Drew is having a poor year so are, and, seems generally over-rated -- as many claimed when he arrived in Boston. Ellsbury has been good, but is still developing his ability to hit breaking stuff - He's better-suited -- at least facing some pitchers - for the bottom of the line-up, where Francona just moved him.

My point here is the Red Sox need more hitting - more contact hitting and more power. It'd be great to get a guy like Mark Texeira who can do both. They can't beat the Yankees, with their All-Star lineup of hitters without Ortiz being himself - and without Manny. Think about it: The Sox, who used to split with the Yankees when they had Ortiz and Ramirez in the #3 & #4 spots, now have, in effect, neither - due to Ortiz's slump.

I just sense that they're about to make not one - but three or four moves before Aug. 1st. I think Brad Penny will be traded. Some juggling of the pitching rotation will be done to get Smoltz and/or Buchholz in there. I HOPE they make some moves because, so far, they've survived the first two months in the most unlikely, strange way. Their record seems better than the team has looked. As Michael Silverman wrote in today's Boston Herald, it's "somewhat of a minor miracle" that the Sox are now 29 - 22 and in 2nd place behind the New York Yankees.

If this team does NOT make a few changes, it's not hard to imagine the wheels coming off and the Sox losing ground more significantly to the Yankees.