Thursday, July 9, 2009

Will Papelbon Be Strong in October?

Maybe I'm in a tiny minority of fans worried about Jonathan Papelbon, but, he still does not seem himself on the mound - and, the season is half over.
I've written about my observations of Papelbon a number of times on this blog. Most often, I've written that Papelbon didn't have the same "late life" on his fastball this year. His control has not been nearly as good. He has walked far more hitters. He has thrown far more pitches in many appearances, as hitters have made frequent contact, fouling off pitches and making flyball and line drive outs quite often. However, a few times, just when I've been ready to conclude Papelbon is hurt or has a serious problem, he's had a good outing - featuring swinging strikeouts. This had reassured me. Plus, I read - as you did - that Papelbon had changed his pitching motion - to put more weight on his legs and reduce strain on his arm. This made one speculate that he was adjusting to the new motion.
Yet, after last night's outing - my concern about Papelbon is back - and now, I'm wondering if he will have the same recurring problems all season, or, very possibly, get worse.
Last night, I watched Papelbon barely survive a long 9th inning against the Oakland Athletics. It was familiar. He gave up a walk, a single, and, then, a smash hit to center that looked like it would be a home run, but it stayed in the yard - a sacrifice fly - due to very strong incoming wind. He then got a strikeout, gave up a single and struck out the last batter.
As often, Papelbon was unable to get his "straight"-looking fastball by some hitters. (In past years, he has fired strikes - even down the middle - easily by hitters because of his "giddy-up."
What's going on with Papelbon? Is his arm worn out? Did he change his motion out of necessity due to worries about potential strain to his arm? Do the Red Sox expect him to be effective all season? Maybe one of their chief motivations to get Daniel Bard up to the big leagues fast this season was to be a backpup to Papelbon THIS year instead of in future seasons.
I don't know, but, right now Papelbon does not look strong and refreshed out there. He looks like he could easily wear down further by September -and, by then, his fastballs might be even more hittable.
Ramon Ramirez has to work his way out of a little pitching slump. He still is not "right" - He's throwing balls out over the plate too often. Justin Masterson has had two bad outings. The bullpen is finally showing a bit of vulnerability, and it only underlines the Sox need to bolster their only real need for improvement - the bottom part of their hitting lineup.

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