Let's analyze the collapse first. I'll discuss only two factors that I think loom large:
1. Ortiz & Ramirez Are Gone -- and Have Never Been Replaced
The Red Sox lost Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of last season, and they've still not replaced what those two mega-stars brought to the table. I say "lost David Ortiz" because I'm referring to the Ortiz of old -- before his wrist injury and other issues caused his skills to decline - and, he's never been the same. He's still fairly good at times - and I think he may finish this 2009 season half-decently, but, he's not even close to the hitter he was two or three years ago, when he resembled Barry Bonds at the plate. (in Bonds' hitting skill) However, I find baseball writers and talk show blowhards amazingly unable to acknowledge this LARGE reality about the IMPACT of the absence of the "old" Ortiz and the multi-talented Ramirez.
Instead, the baseball "pack" of writers keep trying to assess how a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Green and Varitek could have unraveled. Well, the names alone don't even suggest much strength, power, consistency or clutch hitting, do they? If you insert Ramirez and Ortiz - the 2004 variety - it gets instantly A LOT better, huh? I've discussed this lineup in other posts, but, none of these players can CARRY a team for any length of time. Youkilis and Pedroia, when hitting well together, can be damned good and "stand out," but, this year, even they have been a bit erratic - and, neither has the stature of the old Ortiz or Ramirez - period.
So, I'm arguing that Theo Epstein and company don't want any of us to focus on the incredible LOSS this team has absorbed since the middle of 2008, when Manny was traded. Without Manny - particularly this year - one often felt the line-up's vulnerability when, for instance, the team faced a new, young pitcher it had never seen. Often, this line-up has been silenced on those days, which are just the kind of games when Manny, singlehandedly, used to hit a home run and a double to knock in enough runs and, singlehandedly, get a win for the team.
It seems the superior gifts Manny brought have been forgotten by the pack of sports media, who spout the same B.S. in unison. (Watch: They're about to all descend on Drew now because Francona, in a rare moment, made a negative remark about Drew.)
Manny's absence helped keep the Sox from knocking off the Rays and winning it all in 2008, and, this year, with Ortiz struggling so long and others in sub-par seasons, his absence has hurt the lineup much more.
Ortiz and Ramirez were a modern-day Gehrig and Ruth - during their good run in Boston from 2003 - 2007. Yes, that's how good they were. This duo - by far more than any other players - brought two championships to the Red Sox. So, suddenly, Manny is gone and Ortiz has been a shadow of himself and the sportswriters are lamely searching for the explanation that, in many ways, is right in front of them. Why hasn't anyone asked Theo about this void and the team's failure to fill it? Seems after the Sox couldn't get Mark Texeira, they threw in the towel, in a way.
2) Theo & Company Have Badly Over-rated their Veteran Talent and Stayed with it
This is there for all to see. Theo, if pushed, would admit that he was WAY OFF in his projections on how JD Drew would perform here. To call Drew a "disappointment" is an incredible understatement. If it weren't for his salary, would he be in the starting lineup? I don't think so. He sure as hell wouldn't start for the Yankees. Drew hit the big slam in 07 to save the Sox' against the Indians in the playoffs and I'll always be grateful - but, it was a $14 million grand slam.
Theo has failed to get the team a very good shortstop - who can also hit - during most of his tenure. This has been covered. Lugo, Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have not been able to provide enough for different reasons, including injuries - though Green has made a good effort. Bay is good - not great (as the baseball writers often project) but he cannot hit breaking pitches and this keeps him from excelling and coming through in many moments with men on base. Lowell is good - not great - but also struggles with breaking pitches. At least Lowell has made adjustments and tried new approaches - like choking up when he has two strikes on him. Ellsbury, again, is good - but not great. He's had an unusually good stint of hitting lately, but he still has a poor swing and doesn't follow through enough with the bat and watch the ball long enough. Varitek's situation has been well-covered, but, now, with the season on the line, it's time for him to catch only Beckett and Lester at the most. His time is ending now and I think the team should probably not bring him back next year. He simply cannot hit for enough of the long season to provide at least some much-needed offense.
A look at the pitching reveals more misjudgments by Epstein for 09 - mainly in his sticking with John Smoltz and Brad Penny for so long. After Smoltz had appeared three times, it was obvious he didn't have it -- His remaining starts and losses hurt the team and are Epstein's responsibility. Penny has been over-rated for much of the year. He displayed his flaws and limitations early on, but the team stuck with him and now, they're paying the price as Penny deteriorates - as he apparently has in previous seasons. He should no longer be in the starting rotation - period. He throws only fastballs and any good professional hitters start to belt the ball off him by the second time around. His bad appearances - from early June on - are all on Epstein, if you ask me. I'd rather try Bowden or other young arms from the Sox minor-league system -- even if one or more of these pitchers needed time to get better. With Penny, you know what he cannot bring you. A younger pitcher MIGHT be better.
Rocco Baldelli was probably never going to provide sufficient hitting as a utility player.
Overall, I guess I'm sick and tired of hearing Francona or anyone associated with the Red Sox talk about what a good hitting lineup this team has. We've seen WAY TOO MANY games in 2009 when this team has been unable to do a thing against average pitchers. It is NOT an impressive line-up compared to many other teams - whether the Yanks, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies and more. The bottom half of the lineup has been poor since sometime in 2008.
One other thing: I wonder sometimes if the coaching is aggressive enough with certain players who make the same mistakes over and over. For example, Ramon Ramirez, who starred for the first couple of months of 2009, has not pitched well for about two months. He keeps leaving pitches up - and in the strike zone - and he keeps getting hit. I assume John Farrell talks to him - and I think Farrell is about the best pitching coach we've had for years, but, sometimes, I wonder if certain players require more or different coaching. Can't Ellsbury be taught to take more pitches and draw more walks for instance? Can't someone tell Drew to swing at more borderline pitches?
Can the Sox Make the Playoffs?
Maybe, maybe not. If I had to predict tonight, I'd say they're more likely to fall just short at the end of September. I think the Rays will likely finish ahead of them in the wild card, and, perhaps the Rangers too. Unfortunately, even if the Sox make the playoffs, I don't see how this Sox team can go far in the playoffs. It's not enough to have Beckett and Lester. You have to score a few runs - and, this team has been unable to do that.
Certain players, suddenly, have to play better. That's possible, but, it'll be tough in all the games when the Sox play tough teams. In the past month or more, the Sox have performed horribly against teams with winning records.
Victor Martinez probably is one of the only hopes -- I don't think it's fair to expect so much of him, a newcomer, but he has more talent than many others in that lineup and he might provide a spark. Plus, Ortiz has to perform as well as he did in his good stretch before the All-Star Break. Plus, Wakefield has to return to his form of the first half - and Buchholz or Matsuzaka or someone has to win a few games in the role of 5th starter.
I think the Red Sox are in a major transition now. They have a few veterans who are in their last years --- Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Wakefield. They need a new injection for 2010.
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