Last year, throughout the Red Sox' 2009 season, I raised questions about the performance of Jonathan Papelbon, who has been the team's outstanding closer since 2006. I noticed, early on, that Papelbon's fastball lacked some of its old "late life" or "giddy-up" that has always made Papelbon so effective. I wrote about how Papelbon was, apparently, trying a new motion to preserve his arm strength. As the season progressed, I noticed - like many fans - that hitters fouled off far more pitches vs. Papelbon and that he often threw strikes that caught too much of the plate. But, I also pointed out that Papelbon's success appeared dependent on whether or not his fastball had "giddy-up" during a particular outing. I recalled that in Papelbon's earlier years, his location didn't matter as much because his fastball was so explosive that many hitters simply couldn't touch it. (My guess is I wrote more about Papelbon's loss of late movement on his fastball than almost any of the many Sox bloggers all over Red Sox Nation).
In the last game of the season, Papelbon blew Game 3 of the ALDS vs. the LA Angels of Anaheim and I, for one, was not that surprised because of his erratic ability to generate sufficient movement on his heater.
Now, in 2010, it has been the same storyline: For much of the season, Papelbon's fastball has lacked the old "late life" and he has been far more hittable than usual. Yet, Boston's baseball writers have spent very little time or space trying to point out the obvious about the deterioration in Papelbon's fastball. They keep writing: "What's wrong with Papelbon?" as if it's a mystery. They don't appear interested in observing or sharing what they see on the mound, or, perhaps they don't even pay enough attention to notice the differences.
Yesterday, on Aug. 12 of the 2010 season, Papelbon had one of his most disastrous outings when he blew his sixth save against the Toronto Blue Jays. Again, his fastball - while reaching speeds of 98 or 99 mph on the radar gun, was very hittable. Yes, part of Papelbon's problem was a lack of command: He left most of his pitches up in the zone. But, the bigger problem was his fastball lacked "giddy-up" and Toronto's hitters had no trouble whacking the ball.
Beginning yesterday and continuing in this morning's Aug. 13th newspapers, the coverage of Papelbon has focused on his unusual string of blown saves and overall decline, but, it has not focused on the key explanation for his troubles on the mound. It is all about the loss of movement on his fastball.
And, it could be an even more serious problem than the Red Sox have admitted thus far.
Think about it: First, in the past - like back in the 2008 season, for instance, my guess is that Papelbon would, in some outings, have better movement on his fastball than in others, but, overall, he had enough "late life" to continue to dominate hitters much of the time. In the 2009 season, Papelbon couldn't always throw the ball with "late life" and he had to work much harder to close out games. He walked more hitters. Often, they fouled off pitches that they used to swing and miss at. Now, in a further deterioration, Papelbon is often, again, unable to find the "late life" on his fastball, but, this season, he's experienced the problem in some big games and blown six games -- more than in any other season.
Can Papelbon get his old fastball back? It remains unclear. Even in recent weeks, there have been a few occasions when Papelbon HAS thrown the ball hard - with movement - and looked like his old self. But there have been other mediocre appearances and some awful ones too.
It seems to me that Papelbon has been going through a transition. Sometime before the 2009 season, he began pitching in a new motion aimed at sustaining his arm strength for the duration of the season. Why? While the Red Sox didn't seem eager to discuss the details of Papelbon's arm condition, they spoke about his goal of staying strong. Yet, later in 2009, I recall Papelbon saying, on one occasion, something to the effect that because he had pitched with that more "leg-driven" motion, he felt he could "let loose a bit more then. I noticed, he pitched several games with more of his old "giddy-up" than previously in 2009. Later, in the playoffs, he struggled again, but, I wondered what was going on with his arm.
I still wonder about Papelbon's arm. Is he more fragile than we think? I've vaguely noticed, a few times, that it seems sometimes when he gets the best "late life" on his heater, he's throwing the ball as if he's using more of his arm. I cannot explain it in detail, but the important part is that I think Papelbon varies his motion a bit when he wants to try more desparately to bring more movement.
Why am I writing about all these details? Because Papelbon is at a crossroads now with the team - and, it's coinciding with the team clinging on to slim hopes of still earning a wild card playoff berth. Baseball writers and fans are questioning Papelbon more than ever before. Some wonder if setup pitcher Daniel Bard should replace Pap as the closer. Many are speculating that Papelbon may be traded in the offseason because he'll become eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and the Red Sox might be unlikely to pay him the salary he demands.
At the moment, Papelbon, undoubtedly, is focusing more on his day-to-day pitching than his future. He must try hard to keep his confidence up despite the cumulative struggles.
By the time the season is over, I hope that one of the talented Boston baseball writers will tell us more of the whole story of what's been going on with Jonathan Papelbon. It's inexcusable to hear Boston sportswriters simply dwell on Papelbon's bad outcomes without providing any reporting on the actual reasons for the changes in his pitching.
It's not impossible for baseball writers to talk to enough players, coaches, pitchers - on or off-the-record - to get more comments on Papelbon's status. And it's surely not possible for reporters to pay more attention to what's happening when he's on the mound.
Papelbon has been the best closer I recall ever seeing in Boston. At his best, he's been close to "a sure thing" in the 9th inning, confidently blowing the ball by the best hitters in baseball. I don't think he's "done" all of a sudden, but, maybe he needs to rest his arm. I don't know. What I do know is that I expect more of an explanation from Boston baseball writers.
Can Papelbon get his "giddy-up" back? It's a simple question that no one seems able to answer as the 2010 season winds down.
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