Pettitte's Departure a Good Omen for Red Sox Nation

We won't see that Andy Pettitte stare again. I will always associate the televised image of Pettitte's eyes peering just over his glove for the catcher's sign with many other negative Pinstripe memories. Yes, I acknowledge Pettitte's abilities and I enjoyed rooting against him because of that, but.......I'm just happy he won't be around to help the Yankees win so much.

His absence significantly impacts the Red Sox - Yankee rivalry for 2011. It gives the Sox an edge in starting rotations as we enter a year when our hitting line-up, amazingly, has gotten much closer to the quality of the Yankees' line-up with the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.
I think the Yanks still have better hitting - without question, but, suddenly, it feels the two teams are much closer --- similar to the feeling we had back in 2003 and 2004, for instance. This comes after about six years of the Yankees maintaining their old "superiority" over the Sox.
I'd still probably give a slight overall edge to the Yanks, but, I feel much more confident - like many Sox fans - about the matchup.

Pettitte went 11-3 last season and has defied the odds by continuing to pitch at the highest level despite his age. He's 38 now as he announces his retirement today.
The Bombers were hoping that Pettitte would remain in their already-shaky starting rotation.
Now, the Yanks' rotation is even more shaky. Last season, the Yanks' starting pitchers collective ERA ranked 22nd in Major League Baseball, according to a recent post by Cliff Corcoran, a writer for S.I./com. The Yankees, despite that horrible stat, relied on their fantastic hitting to make it to the ACLS in 2010 before losing badly to the Texas Rangers.
The Yanks will again have C./C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett back as starters, but their #4 and # 5 starters are not confirmed and are unlikely to match the quality of the Red Sox' #4 and #5.
Also, consider the context: Sabathia is coming off two outstanding seasons. Is he likely to do that in a third consecutive year? Maybe he'll be good, but I doubt he can be quite as dazzling.
Hughes' numbers were impressive last year. He finished at 18-8, but, Corcoran's S.I./com article reminded me his year wasn't what it appeared. In his final 23 starts, Hughes posted a 5.05 ERA and he benefited from tremendous run support, Corcoran wrote. (an average of 6.75 runs per game he pitched) Burnett finished at 10-15 in 2010 and had a lousy year across the board. Plus, consider that Burnett had consistent injury problems before he arrived in NY, and, yet, has been healthy during his two year stint. At 34, coming off his poor year, is he likely to be a healthy, incredible "ace" in 2011? I doubt it.
So, if you look at the questions facing Hughes and Burnett and then factor in the likely limitations of the two unknowns the Yanks designate to fill out their rotation, it's fair to say their rotation has not looked this potentially flawed in many years.

If one considers the Red Sox rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Matsuzaka, it seems the Sox have an indisputable edge on paper. Of course, Beckett and Lackey have a lot to prove after their sub-par seasons and we simply don't know if one or both are facing an unavoidable drop in their "stuff" at this stage of their careers. I worry, in particular, about Beckett, who has been unable to throw his fastball as hard the past two years -- when that has been his signature pitch his whole career. Lackey's fastball also lacked the zip of his past seasons. So, we just won't know until the late spring whether one or both of these guys appears on the "down side." Or, perhaps one or both will work on their problems in spring training and come back strong.
However the details evolve, I cannot believe that Beckett and Lackey together will be worse than the #4 and #5 newcomers to the Yankee rotation. And, I think Lester and Buchholz match up against Sabathia and Hughes because even if Sabathia is the best, our #2, I'd argue, is better than Hughes.
Dice-K looked decent for much of last season, but, he still has bad habits that are unlikely to go away. If the Sox could trade Dice-K, I'd do it right now.

Pettitte's departure reminds me that the old Yankee-Red Sox rivalry is not far from a total transformation. Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are getting older and won't be the hitting threats they once were. Even Mariano Rivera cannot pitch forever. Plus, on our side, David Ortiz is playing what will likely be his last year for the Red Sox. So, all of the players who were part of the unique excitement of 2004 will soon be fading or off both of these two great teams.

It seems that something different is going on with the Yankees in early 2011. GM Brian Cashman is having public disagreements with the owners. Yankee management was stupid enough to get into a public spat with Jeter over his contract a couple of months ago. The team looks more fragile. Could the team be headed for an unusually bad year?

That's unlikely, but, Pettitte's departure will make things harder in the Bronx.

What's Up with Papelbon?

Large questions surround Jonathan Papelbon right now. Fans are wondering if the affable, fist-pumping closer will be able to return to top form for one last year, or, if 2011 will bring a continuation of subpar performance as he prepares to say goodbye.

First, is there still a chance the 30-year-old Papelbon may be traded before the 2011 season? How about being traded during the season, particularly at the trading deadline if he's not performing that well? Second, can he still pitch well enough to serve as the team's closer? Third, how will he feel about the addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen?


Beyond that, what was Papelbon's reaction to the Red Sox making an off-season offer to NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera - even if it was only semi-serious? (It was a three-year offer for $51 million, after all)


In summary, the situation with Papelbon does not appear to be nearly as "settled" as Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has suggested. The Red Sox have said they expect Jenks and Daniel Bard to share the role of setting up Papelbon, who they've expressed confidence in.


That's the key question, of course: can Papelbon can regain his effectiveness after the 2010 season, when he had a career-record number of eight blown saves? The crux of concern is that Papelbon's fastball is not what it used to be. What made Papelbon's fastball terrific was its "late life" - which often result in batters swinging at strike three. However, in the past two seasons, Papelbon's fastball has often lacked some of its giddy-up and become a very hittable, "straight" fastball. In fact, while in 2009, Papelbon's fastball regained some movement late in the season, in 2010, Papelbon seemed to have more permanently lost the "zip" needed.
Worsening matters, Papelbon's command of that straighter fastball has been average or poor much of the time, resulting in him giving up hits, including far more home runs, and many more walks than earlier in his career.

By the end of the 2010 season, I got the impression that Papelbon simply couldn't throw his "old" moving fastball - period. Every outing, he'd throw his "new" straighter fastball - often at slightly less velocity- and hitters had no trouble getting wood on the ball. Often Papelbon also
lacked any control and threw his fastballs down or near the middle of the plate. This bad combination resulted in many shaky appearances; in fact, his performances caused him to narrowly avoid more blown saves than the eight he suffered.

Papelbon has to find a way to salvage his pitching. Either he has used his off-season workouts and conditioning to try an approach that will bring back the late life on his heater OR he needs to really develop one of his other pitches further. I don't think an occasional split-fingered fastball or mediocre slider will be enough for Papelbon.

So, as it turns out, the potential impact of Jenks is the least of Papelbon's concerns. Hopefully, Jenks will improve on his last few seasons of pitching in subpar form, but, regardless, Papelbon needs all the help he can get. If he continues to pitch OK but keeps declining a bit, Papelbon will leave after 2011 and Bard will likely become the new closer. (Unless Jenks surprises the hell out of everyone and outpitches Bard or convinces the Sox to leave Bard in the setup role)

Papelbon is entering his 6th year no the Red Sox. He's in his final year of arbitration and is expected to work out another one-year deal for approximately $11 million. He's said all along he looked forward to becoming a free agent, but, the irony is that now, unless he can turn things around, he won't attract many interested teams.

It's a shame that Papelbon appears to be following the cycle of most closers. They reach their peak early and pitch their hearts out, but, then, their skills decline rather fast too.

I hope Papelbon can somehow revive his old fastball. He could make all the difference in the Red Sox chances to win it all in 2011. He certainly made a difference in contributing to the 2007 championship.

If Papelbon can come back in 2011, he'll be defeating all the odds and the trends. If, by chance, he has pitched his best baseball, he's already given Red Sox fans many thrills.

Reactions to the Red Sox' Terrific Off-Season - So Far

The Red Sox recent signing of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford has been a "positive shock" to
fans across New England. The team, on paper, is argubly in a much stronger position to contend for a championship. On the other hand, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in projections because unforeseen developments often alter things.

As this blog is posted, the team still has a long way to go to inject much-needed improvement to its bullpen, which performed very poorly in 2010.

Among my many reactions to these "mega-deals" are the following:

• I think it's obvious that the Sox ownership and management team felt it had to make some major moves in this particular off-season. It appears as if owner John Henry - perhaps joined by others - told General Manager Theo Epstein that, unlike in past offseasons, they not only were OK with signing star players to long, very expensive contracts, but, in fact, enthusiastically supported Epstein taking this approach. Epstein has consistently avoided signing elite players to deals of more than four years. This is a view I've heard expressed by Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on "98.5 - The Sports Hub," the sports radio talk show that has successfully challenged WEEI in Boston in the past year. Indeed, it is almost inconceivable, to me, to imagine Epstein orchestrating the Crawford deal on his own. Crawford is a very good player, but, he's not worth signing for $142 million over seven years! I accept that Theo has long eyed and planned to go after Gonzalez. The significant decline in the team's television ratings on NESN last summer was an important factor. Plus, the team's top officials, including Theo, had to be aware of the lack of "buzz" about the 2010 Red Sox. Having said all this, I still am amazed the team agreed to two huge deals in the same winter. Any doubts about whether the Sox were willing to go head-to-head spending-wise with the NY Yankees after the team's struggles since the 2009 playoffs have been eliminated in one fell swoop.
• By adding Gonzalez and Crawford to the young leaders of the team - like Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - Sox officials have increased the odds of the team being in the competitive mix for the next several years at least.
• The team's hitting will be much better, but, people are overlooking that Gonzalez and Crawford are essentialy replacing the hitting of Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, who, last year, consistently led the team's offense and came up with clutch hits, particularly Beltre. Still, Beltre performed "over his head" last year and there are concrete reasons to believe "Gonzo" really will thrive in Fenway Park and hit far more home runs and extra base hits there compared to his output in San Diego. Gonzalez, strikingly, has hit better on the road than in PETCO field, a huge "pitchers' park."
• The Yankees' failure to sign Cliff Lee, their top priority for the winter, cannot be overestimated in terms of its potential impact on the Sox-Yanks battle to win the AL East. The Yankees' starting pitching is what did them in in the 2010 playoffs. Now, it's unlikely they'll add a top-notch starter. In addition, Andy Pettitte may or may not return. C.C. Sabathia is a bit older and less likely to keep performing at such an incredible level. Lastly, several of the Bombers' stars - Jeter, Posada, Rivera - are getting old, making the odds of at least some decline in ability or performance more likely.
• I have a strong opinion on the Sox lineup that I haven't heard others express so far. I believe the team should consider trying to convince Crawford to return to hitting in the leadoff spot, thereby replacing Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, Crawford has to be OK with this move and media reports have suggested that he prefers to NOT hit lead-off, however, if, in fact, he might accept the move, he'd be far better than Ellsbury and that would allow Youkilis to bat third and Gonzalez to bat clean-up, with David Ortiz in the fifth spot. When you leave Ellsbury in the lead-off spot and bat Pedroia second and Crawford third, you force Youkilis to bat fifth, presumably behind Gonzalez. There is no way, in my view, that keeping Ellsbury in the lead-off spot should force Youkilis, who has been the team's best hitter, to bat fifth. You want Youk to get more at-bats than that. Jacoby Ellsbury has been quite average as the leadoff hitter in the lineup. He still lacks patience and is not able to wait for the ball to come all the way in -- a skill that good "contact" hitters have. Good leadoff hitters hit for contact and walk often but Ellsbury does neither. Beyond all this, Ellsbury can hit in the 9th spot and be a dangerous bridge to Crawford and the top of the lineup. That way, the lineup would benefit from the back-to-back speed of Ellsbury and Crawford without the liability of Ellsbury's limited hitting skill impacting the strong hitters behind him.
• Of course, the Red Sox are more likely to hit Ellsbury first, Pedrois second and Crawford third with Gonzo at cleanup and Youkilis fifth and Big Papi sixth. Even that way, the lineup is much harder for a pitcher to get through - with JD Drew the likely 7th hitter followed by Marco Scutaro and Jared Saltalamacchia - in whatever sequence.
• I wrote about Gonzo's likely impact in a previous blog, but I think Crawford's performance is a bit harder to predict. His capacity to play outstanding in left field - at Fenway and on the road - is easy to predict. Crawford may quickly remind people of Yaz - and, possibly, better, at Fenway. He's a superlative fielder, and, when he gets even more used to the Monster, he'll probably start throwing runners out. Crawford is a very good hitter whose strength is his consistency to make contact. He has hit in the low .300 area in five of his nine seasons and .296 in two other seasons - meaning he's basically been at .300 for most of his career. Likewise, Crawford has gotten more than 180 hits in six seasons and 177 in a seventh. He has hit more than 10 HRs in six seasons. Last year, he reached his highest home run total at 19.
• It seems - from the early exposure to Gonzo and Crawford - that both have an excellent attitude in terms of effort and hunger to win it all, but, also, neither seems likely to be fazed by playing in Boston. In fact, it's easy to imagine both guys loving the additional attention and appreciation of the fans here compared to in San Diego and Tampa Bay, where things were a lot more low-key.
• It's absolutely amazing that the Red Sox, after several years of avoiding big, expensive, long-term deals, have made two within the past two weeks. Of course, they completed a trade of three minor-league players for Gonzalez and have to work out a long-term deal. It's expected the team will end up paying Gonzo over $20 million a year for at least six years, and, maybe seven. The Red Sox clearly concluded they had to give a large, exciting jumpstart to the team, after a 2010 season when people were losing interest. Now, Epstein and Henry have put together a new "nucleus" that should keep the Red Sox competitive for a number of years. I expect a World Series within the next five years. Back when I was growing up in the 1960s, I would have never said that. Let's face it: While this Henry/Lucchino/Epstein management team has its flaws, they deserve enormous credit for bringing a whole new era to the Red Sox that just keeps continuing. I can't wait for the 2011 season.

It's "Gonzo" or Bust for 2011 Red Sox

Just when pressure was building on the Red Sox to make a major deal before 2011, Sox GM Theo Epstein has pulled out his "ace in the hole."

The Red Sox, as of today, have agreed to a deal, in principle, for San Diego Padres' first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres' slugger, viewed as one of the best hitters in the game, will automatically become the new "centerpiece" of their lineup, giving them a much-needed boost in power. (A serious power vacuum has existed since the days when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were both hitting in their prime at the 3rd and 4th spots in the order)


Boston's baseball writers and serious fans were beginning to question how the Sox brass could assemble a competitive team for 2011 when Epstein suddenly stepped up negotiations for Gonzalez in the past two days. Now, as of Dec. 4th, a deal has been concluded that has the Sox trading a few top prospects - including pitcher Casey Kelly, - for Gonzo, a proven slugger who can become the "center" of their lineup. Gonzalez and the Red Sox will soon iron out the details of his new contract, expected to be an expensive, long-term package.


What's understated is the extent to which the Red Sox desparately needed to get Gonzalez. The Sox' off-season until now has been a real "downer" - with the loss of catcher Victor Martinez, on of its best hitters, and serious signs that third baseman Adrian Beltre is unlikely to return. Beltre was the Red Sox' best hitter in 2010 and carried the team on his back for key stretches. The Red Sox, in the past few days, had met with free agent outfielders Carl Crawfod of the Tampa Bay Rays and Jason Werth of the Phillies, but, I'd argue that neither of those two are worth large, long-term investments. Crawford, with his blazing speed, is more multi-talented than Werth, but, still not the kind of "game-changer" a team necessarily wants to commit more than $80 - $100 million to for five or six years.


The team was already short on hitting going into 2010, but, without Martinez and Beltre, the "hole" in their 2011 lineup would have been gargantuan without the addition of Gonzalez. In fact, I'd argue that, even with Gonzalez, the Sox need a bit more hitting to compete with the Yankees in the AL East. The subtraction of Beltre and Martinez is still greater than the addition of Gonzo. Of course, the Red Sox are not done with their dealing yet. Perhaps they'll still add Phillies' free agent outfielder Werth, but, I doubt they'll follow through, now, on either Werth or Crawford, though, due to the size, length and cost of the Gonzo deal.


Gonzalez, in the 2010 season, batted .298, with 31 HR, 101 RBI, and an OPS of .904. His numbers have been excellent for the past five years or so, but, what enhances them is that he hit that well in PETCO field, which is widely recognized as a "pitchers ballpark." Many believe he'll hit considerably better at Fenway Park, which is suited for lefthanded hitters who can take advantage of hitting balls of the Green Monster in left field. Gonzalez, who has an "inside-out" swing, will likely grow fond of the Monster and may benefit, like other Bosox lefthanded sluggers, from the right-field fence being moved in a bit before the start of the 2011 season.


Unknown, of course, is whether Gonzalez will end up having the personality, temperment and style that makes it easier to succeed in Boston, which some players find very tough or impossible to play in. I don't know anything about this guy, but he'll benefit from having some solid, unselfish teammates like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz.


Will the Red Sox add more hitting? I hope so. Many writers and fans have forgotten that the team never really replaced Manny Ramirez, who left in the middle of the 2008 season. They didn't replace Jason Bay, who they let go, as a free agent, at the end of the 2009 season. They got some power back with Victor Martinez, at the 2009 trading deadline, but, Victor is gone now. And, the same goes with their temporary benefits last year from Adrian Beltre, who is widely expected to sign with another team now.


I can see a lineup now consisting of: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Dustin Pedroia 3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Kevin Youkilis 5. David Ortiz 6. JD Drew 7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia 8. ________ 9. Marco Scutaro


I left the #8 spot blank because it's unclear who will play left field and where that person will be inserted in the lineup. I still think that when you consider Ellsbury's limited hitting skills, the fading abilities of Ortiz and the ineffectiveness of Drew, the team's overall hitting will still be lacking against the good teams. I have to admit, however, that Gonzo has reignited some of my hopes.


Now, the team needs to find new blood for its incomplete, weak bullpen, and, it just may round out into an overall condition that allows it to compete in the AL East much better than in 2010.

As Victor Leaves, Sox Fade Further

Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein apparently remains in denial about his team's hitting ability. Or, perhaps he's aware of the hitting deficit and he's preparing for another "bridge year" in 2011.

Either way, the Red Sox just allowed the team to get a lot worse by letting free agent catcher Victor Martinez get away. He was one of the best hitters on the team.

Worsening matters, the Sox could have easily signed Martinez to a new deal. Martinez, unlike some free agents, had expressed a desire to stay in Boston. He also happened to be a leader in the clubhouse.

Martinez was one of the only hitters on the team - except Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - who could hit for contact. Victor could also hit for power, and, I'd say that only he and Youkilis could hit for both. Now, with Adrian Beltre almost certainly out the door, the team faces a tremendous void in hitting. Signing free agent Jason Werth would not make up for Victor's bat.

That's what's bad here: Even if the Sox "replace" Martinez' hitting, they'll still be short. The 2010 Red Sox - despite what many baseball pundits said - lacked the kind of hitting you need to win a championship. Yeah, I heard repeatedly that the team was among MLB's best in "runs scored" for the first half of the season. My reaction: It was a misleading stat. The team bashed the ball vs. average pitchers and often couldn't hit better pitchers. They hit fastballs but often suffered vs. pitchers with good breaking or off-speed stuff. When Pedroia, and, then, Youkilis went down with injuries, the team's weak hitting was more exposed.

Bottom-line: Since Manny Ramirez's departure in the middle of the 2008 season, the Red Sox hitting has declined, dipping below what's necessary for the team to advance in the playoffs. People still don't seem to realize how special the Ramirez/Ortiz combination was in the 2003-07 period: They were like Gehrig and Ruth -- a unique strength that helped carry the Sox to the championships. By contrast, have baseball writers and fans already forgotten how pitifully the Sox hit in the 2009 playoffs - when the Angels swept them?

How did this happen? Why hasn't management found more good hitters for its lineup? I think part of it is that Epstein and Company have tried to convince the fan base that "things are OK" - when they're not. Last year, for example, we heard endlessly about how well "substitute" players like Daniel Nava and Billy Hall performed when, the team really played above its talent level and gutted out wins. In reality, the team's hitting was not as good as others - such as the Yankees or Phillies, and, certainly no better than teams like the Blue Jays or the Rays.

If you go up and down the Sox lineup, I think Epstein and others have some degree of denial about almost every player. Jacoby Ellsbury? He's been overrated by everybody, when, he still hasn't shown he can hit different kinds of pitches and wait long enough to make contact more often. Despite his speed, he's a very "average" leadoff hitter because of his "average" hitting.

Pedroia? A good hitter who can grind out at-bats as well as anyone on the team. He CAN hit for contact and hit a variety of pitches. Youkilis? The best hitter on the team - period. Ortiz? A hitter in decline who covered up his deteriorating skills by belting home runs fairly often. Ortiz is a very good "mistake pitch" hitter, but he can no longer hit for contact well. Many pitchers can fool him with breaking stuff. It was crazy to pay him $12.5 million for 2011 while choosing to let Victor sign a reasonable deal with the Tigers.

Theo got incredibly lucky with Adrian Beltre. Yes, he hoped Beltre would hit better in Fenway in a year before free agency, but, Beltre was off the charts! Beltre carried the team for good chunks of the season, belting doubles and home runs off the Monster. Without Beltre's exceptional season, the Sox would have finished in much more mediocre fashion and been further exposed.

What other hitters are even on this team? JD Drew? Theo's denial about Drew suggests he has an unusual "delusion" about this particular player. Drew didn't even put up his usual "average" numbers in 2010. He was simply bad - along with his regular bad habits -- failing to hit with men on base, hitting endless "dribblers" to the second baseman and choosing to be picky at the plate rather than swinging at borderline strikes and getting more hits to help his team.

Marco Scutaro? He hit decently last year and showed a lot of guts to keep playing despite a bad injury. (Why didn't the team sit him down more in the end of the season rather than risk further injury?) Theo got Mike Cameron for last year despite his weak hitting. Cameron missed most of the season, but, he would have been unable to add much punch, anyway.

There is no need to examine any other players. Epstein, owner Johne Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino must snap out of their denial about the team's hitting. The Red Sox had a fairly weak hitting lineup with Victor Martinez. Now, it is very weak. (Let's not forget the team lost Mike Lowell too, who has been a reliable clutch hitter for years here)

I fear that Theo and his baseball operations team are so "stat-happy" that they've lost sight of the critical, intangible, human factors in making a good baseball team. I believe that "clutch hitting" does exist -- despite Bill James' "study" or whoever concluded, ridiculously, that it's wrong to think some hitters are much better in the clutch. How do you explain Derek Jeter's hitting in late innings vs. the Red Sox then? I digress, but, my point is you can't build a lineup based on stats. Does Theo want a lineup filled with JD Drews? God, that's a nightmare I cannot face. I don't care what the baseball geeks might say: Drew is one of the most over-rated players I've ever seen in my life. Yet Theo Epstein still thinks he's terrific.

I bring this up because Theo had better wake up and admit the team needs "different" players if it is to return to the glory days of 2004 and 2007. I mean we need a "star" player or two back here. It was Manny Ramirez - as much as any other Sox player - who helped bring us the two World Series championships. It's not a coincidence that Manny was signed by Dan Duquette - not Theo Epstein, who would never sign a guy to a big, long contract like Manny's in Boston. Oh, and, yes, Duquette signed Pedro Martinez to an expensive contract too. Manny and Pedro brought exciting, unforgettable baseball moments to Boston that will be remembered far longer than anything JD Drew has done.

You need stars, Theo! Ever since the Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, they've been in a slump in signing big-name stars here. Let's hope it ends soon. Theo's challenge now will be to sign more than one star in the next year or two because Victor Martinez' departure has left the team's hitting deficit much deeper. Bring on Adrian Gonzalez.

Red Sox Should Not Extend David Ortiz

It makes no sense for the Red Sox to sign David Ortiz to any deal longer than one year. I mean NO sense. So, if Ortiz, in the next day or two, reiterates his current stand - that he wants anything longer than the team's one-year option the team can offer him, the Red Sox must simply say "No."


In my view, it'd be preferable for the Red Sox to cut ties with Ortiz now simply because his abilities have begun to fade noticeably, and, it's usually wise to part with such a player -- even a legendary star like Big Papi. Especially when that player would earn $12.5 million in 2011. I have the feeling that, in 2010, the Sox got about the best Ortiz has left in him. He hit 32 HRs, knocked in 102 RBIs and batted .270.


Though I love Ortiz and view him as the player most responsible for bringing the the Sox a championship in 2004, I can point to the same evidence as any serious Sox observers. In 2004, what made Ortiz scary was that he could hit for power and contact. Now, approaching 2011, he's become primarily a "mistake pitch" hitter. He can nail fastballs that catch too much of the plate, but, he cannot drive different pitches on the corners for line drives to all parts of the field like he used to. He "can be pitched to" much more easily, and, is far more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Ortiz hits lefthanded pitchers strikingly worse than he did before.


So, why have all of Boston's baseball writers and broadcast journalists seemed to conclude that, of course, the Red Sox should give Ortiz his option year, and, some have supported considering an extension for him? Well, it's unsurprising, in many ways because Boston baseball media often don't take stands that are the least bit unconventional, unpredictable or original. In this case, supporting a tough stance vs. Ortiz would also bring a bit of conflict and controversy into play. Boston's baseball writers tend to stay in a safe "pack."

Yes, Big Papi's departure would force the Red Sox to replace his bat in the lineup. Yes, they'd have to have a few options in mind at this point ......but, the team should have thought about all that by now. If the 2010 Sox were willing to look toward the future, why can't they do so in 2011? Investing in a younger player in his prime as DH makes more sense than paying such a huge salary to an older, fading player. (Most other designated hitters - including Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui - earn salaries about half that of Ortiz).

Why should the team pay its aging DH one of the highest annual salaries given that he's in decline? Why should the team plan on keeping him around any more than one season given the erosion of Ortiz's skills in the past two years. I'm not saying Ortiz had "bad" seasons in 2009 or 2010. He ended with good numbers in 2010, but one can see what's on the horizon.

The Red Sox, in recent years, have sometimes made unwise moves, when it comes to contracts. The team gave Josh Beckett an extension before it had to, and Beckett has not performed up to expectations since then. The team chose to over-pay John Lackey, and his 2010 performance was mediocre. The team over-paid JD Drew, giving him a $13 million annual salary that he never earned and has never matched in performance.

If the Sox are trying to build a young team for the future - with its top-notch pitchers and players like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - why do they feel obligated to keep Ortiz any more than one year at such a high salary?

The answer is: they don't need to. They cannot keep Big Papi purely for what he's given the team in the past. No matter when Ortiz leaves, his contributions in 2004 and beyond will never be forgotten.

Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose! Yankees Lose!

The New York Yankees lost the 2010 ACLS to the Texas Rangers. It's been over since last week, but I just want to say it again. It feels good. Let's see: how about expressing it a few different ways?
-- The Yankees failed to win a championship for one more year of the Jeter/Rivera/Pettite/ Posada era that links them to the other painful times they won since 1996.
-- The Yankees lost in 2010 despite being loaded up with so much talent that one could argue they should have won another title. So, in a way, the lineup with Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, Cano, Posada, Swisher and Granderson should have won. If you factor in Sabathia, Pettite, Rivera and the rest, yeah, they blew it. I still feel the positive after-effects!
--The Yankees lost and their veteran players will all be a year older in 2011 - That's a good thing.
--The Yankees have won only one championship (2009) in the past ten years. Translation: They've been the most loaded team in baseball for virtually this entire decade, but, have found ways to lose in 9 of the last 10 years. (8 times in the playoffs) Yippee!

It remains a mystery, even to me, why I hate the Yankees so much, but, it's true.

I want to highlight a few other things I noticed about their performance that led to their exit:

In my view, some of their players didn't appear to be that fired up about the series vs. the Rangers. They didn't seem to care quite as much about whether they won or lost. Maybe it's understandable, in a way. Guys like Jeter and Posada have won so many damned times that they might have a little "playoff burnout."
Staying on Jeter for a second, he had a particularly mediocre series - by Jeter's post-season standards. Could it be that the Yankee captain is finally showing his age? He's getting married soon, right? Maybe he's a bit distracted by off-field activity, for a change.
Posada seemed to show his age a bit too. He got a few hits, but, in other at-bats, he seemed a bit
slower in his reaction time than some of his moments vs. the Red Sox in past playoffs. Plus, he's become a lousy catcher in terms of his ability to throw out runners attempting steals. Posada's arm is simply not as quick or accurate. Plus, Posada's defense behind the plate seems to have slipped a bit. Every year, in the playoffs, he seems to have more trouble preventing passed balls.
Mariano Rivera looked dominant and fine. No surprise there. Rivera never seeems to change. Pettite pitched well in his one game. No surprise there.

C.C. Sabathia had one good game and one not-so-good game - That was a change. A.J. Burnett, who pitched well for part of one game, still blew it by giving up a big 3-run homer. That seems a trend with Burnett, who the Yankees payed a bundle to get. And, besides Kerry Wood, who pitched OK, the rest of the Yankee bullpen performed badly. That was good to see.

So, is it possible that we're seeing a few "chinks" in the Yankee armor? Are there signs of "decline" in the Evil Empire? I hope so, but, my guess is they'll acquire more star players to try to bolster their sickening, monopolistic hold on baseball.
And, I know one thing for sure: Come Opening Day of the 2011 season, I'll still hate the Yankees as much as ever.

I So HATE the NY Yankees

It's playoff time again, and that means it's GroundHog Day if you're a Red Sox fan who roots hard for the Yankees to lose. (when the Sox have failed to make the playoffs)
Tonight, the Rangers jumped out to a 5-0 lead over the Yanks, and, even better, they knocked Yanks' super ace C.C. Sabathia out of the game. I had been listening on my car radio, but, when I got home, I couldn't resist the potential joy of witnessing a Yankee loss of a first game of a playoff series.
I still wasn't "sold" on the game being over. We Yankee-haters have learned for more than a decade that a five-run lead against the Evil Bombers is not big enough. C.J. Wilson, the Rangers' starter was looking awfully impressive, however. He looked confident as he fooled many Yankee hitters with his off-speed stuff. Slowly, gradually, I got sucked into the game and I was fantasizing about the end of the game --- the "buzz" that would be created by the Rangers beating Sabathia. With Cliff Lee due to pitch in Game 3 and Game 7, if necessary, suddenly, I
could imagine, if only for a split second, the possibility of the Rangers winning the series.
And then, the Yankees did their usual GroundHog Day thing. They rallied for five runs in the 9th inning. The Rangers' bullpen collapsed --- and, yet, it didn't seem surprising.
No.................................At this point, any kind of rally by the Yankees, and, especially their come-from-behind rallies late in the game, do NOT - I repeat - do NOT surpise me or many other fans. It's the opposite, effect, in fact. As soon as the Yanks begin their so-predictable rally or "march" to take the game, I can easily imagine the rest of the rally and the end of the game.
Tonight, once the Yanks got the game from them trailing by four (5-1) to trailing by 1 (5-4), the
game felt "over" to me -- in the Yank's favor. I turned the channel. I didn't want to watch all the details. I sensed they'd score more runs to go ahead, and, sure enough, when I checked back about 15 minutes later, the Yanks were up 6-5. I watched Mariano Rivera shut the Rangers
down. Do any of you - at this point - ever believe Rivera will NOT get the save? If so, you
must not have suffered through watching him celebrate the nauseatingly high number of wins
that I've witnessed him celebrate.
I am SO SICK of the Yankees. Aren't you? They always do this. The script is the same. A few players change year to year....but the storyline is the same and it goes like this: The Yankees are so fucking stacked with talent that no matter how many innings it takes them, eventually, their surplus - their tremendous edge in talent - emerges and shows itself and they win the game. They might as well be robots at this point.
It's SO boring and sickening to watch them win in the same way, in the same patterns - year after year.
I beg the Philadelphia Phillies to eliminate the Yankees this year. Please take me out of Yankee GroundHog Day. It's a drab place to be. And Bill Murray isn't around in this version.

Red Sox May Have Another "Bridge" Year in 2011

As the Red Sox prepare to close the books on a disappointing 2010 season, let's hope the management team of GM Theo Epstein, CEO Larry Lucchino and Owner John Henry find the wisdom to make some good decisions about next season and beyond.

The Red Sox' 2010 season collapsed due to a rash of serious injuries to important players and a
few key weaknesses on the team, such as a poor bullpen.

The choices don't get any easier for Theo and Company in the weeks and months ahead. The Sox brass must decide how much they're willing to risk another season of not making the playoffs in 2011. Should they try hard to add a few new, good players this winter - via trade or free agency? Should they decide to plan on bringing up one or two of their young players to get a lot more starts during the 2011 season? (Ryan Kalish, for example)

And, what are the Sox going to do about David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez - whose contracts are due to expire at the end of this season?

Let's start with decisions on this "big three" group.

Ortiz: I would consider saying goodbye to Ortiz when this season ends. Though he again managed to put up good numbers, Ortiz is not the same hitter he was a few years ago - whether it's due to age or other factors. He's evolved into a very good "mistake" hitter. If and when pitchers leave fastballs over the plate, Big Papi often can still belt these balls either out of the park or against the fence for a double. However, Ortiz cannot hit for contact the way he could back in 2004 - 06. He can't get wood on many pitches; in fact, he can be pitched to by many of the best pitchers on other teams. Pitchers can often get Papi out with good breaking stuff - curves, sliders, cutters. Lefthanded pitchers can get him out almost all the time. (His average vs lefties is terrible)
So, the argument goes, if Ortiz's "contact hitting" skills are continuing to decline, why should the Sox pay him another $12.5 million in 2011? I think it makes more sense to cut ties with him now than to wait until later. It'd be part of a decision to "rebuild" in 2011.
I will say this: I am not as opposed to paying Big Papi for just one more year based on the premise that, after a bad start, he rebounded to have a consistent year and provided a key part of the team's power. But, I am absolutely opposed to the Sox signing Ortiz to anything beyond one more year. He's getting older and that makes no sense.

Beltre: This is a tough decision. If there is any way the Red Sox can offerr Beltre a high salary for the next couple of years, with maybe an option for a third year, I'd support re-signing him. Beltre was the star of the team this year. Often, he won games single-handedly, getting the "big hits" time and again. Plus, he seems like he's terrifically suited for Fenway Park. He rips so many line drives down the line or off the Green Monster. For these reasons, I think the Sox should offer Beltre a lot of money for two or three years. The problem is that he and agent Scott Boraas will likely want a deal for four years or more. If the Sox could make a fourth year incentive-laden, I'd try that. If Boras and Beltre are stubborn about these details, then I can understand the Sox being reluctant. Beltre, until this year, has had a fairly erratic performance in the past. So, I think the argument would be to pay him really well for a shorter time, but try hard to keep him -- if he's open to a deal shorter than 4 or more years.

Martinez: Of these three, I'd try the hardest to sign Victor. He's a great hitter - for contact and power. His attitude is great: Players describe him as one of the leaders in the clubhouse. He played with a bad thumb for the entire second half of the season. After a poor start throwing out baserunners trying to steal, Martinez improved as the season progressed. He can catch, play first base and hit at DH, making his signing feel less risky. If nothing else, you know Victor can hit - and from both sides of the plate.

I don't think there is any way the Sox can or should bring back all three of this trio - of Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez. I think they have to bring back either one or two, however. I'd take steps to ensure Victor's return, try hard for Beltre and be willing to part with Ortiz.

What other moves loom on the horizon? The pitching staff seems intact. Even if Josh Beckett and John Lackey struggle again in 2011, the Red Sox are stuck with their big contracts now. No other team will want to trade for either of those two now. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz should return ready to excel again in 2011. As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, now is a good time to try to trade him in the offseason.

Daisuke has two years left on his contract, and, I believe he's due to be paid $10 million in 2011.
At this point, we know a lot about Matsuzaka. Though he got plenty of rest during the 2009 season after reporting unprepared to pitch, and, he got time off due to injury for a small part of 2010, Daisuke pitched well only in spurts during this season. For one stretch, he got it together and walked fewer hitters, and posted a handful of excellent starts back-to-back. But, then, he
struggled in a few starts, and, as the season is ending, he still seems like he's unreliable, too prone to control problems and too tentative about challenging hitters.
Matsuzaka seems either resistant to change or unable to accept suggestions and incorporate adjustments into his pitching. He makes the same mistakes over and over. It's time to let him go. He has not turned out to be the pitching stud he was made out to be. Instead, he's been a solid, decent pitcher -- far from the "star" he was in Japan. If the Sox can get a quality player or two back for Daisuke - or a couple of top prospects, I'd do that in a minute.
I've seen enough of Matsuzaka.
One caveat: The Sox would have to have someone good ready to replace him in the rotation, and, I'm not including Tim Wakefield in that discussion. The team should cut ties with Wake, at this point. Not only is he injury-prone almost every year, but, he can't pitch well with any consistency anymore - and, yes, he's very old.

I think the team is preparing to part company with Jonathan Papelbon, who, clearly has lost some zip on his fastball. I wouldn't mind bringing Papelbon back for one more year, if he could convince the front office that he could get some "giddy-up" back into his fastball during 2011. If pitching coach John Farrell and others think Papelbon's fastball will not improve again, I'd consider trading him now in the offseason. It all depends on the details about what's happening with his arm. Papelbon needs that late life on his heater, or he becomes ordinary awfully fast.

I disagree with many of Boston's baseball writers who have maintained the Sox' offense was adequate in 2010, particularly during the first half of the season. I thought the hitting was lacking enough punch throughout the lineup for the entire season. I thought the team needed another power hitter or another contact hitter -- even when Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia were in the lineup. So, I think no matter what decisions the team makes on Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez, they will have to probably add some firepower to remain competitive with the Yankees and the Rays, whose lineups are superior now.

It remains unclear if the team will try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury after the young centerfielder voiced his dissatisfaction with how the team's doctors treated him after his rib injuries. If Ellsbury returns, it'll reinforce the need for more hitting because he's a mediocre contact hitter to have leading off. He did improve a bit during the 2009 season, so, we never saw whether he'd have kept the same performance going during 2010.

These are just a few of many questions facing the Red Sox before the 2011 season. That I'm already discussing them -- with the Sox about to face the Yankees for a meaningless regular-season series in NY -- illustrates what a disappointment the 2010 season was.

At this moment, it appears it'll be hard for the Sox to juggle all the changes and add enough top players to ensure a much better year in 2011 than was 2010. It may be another "bridge" year, although Theo Epstein will never admit it.

Theo Epstein's Luck Has Let Him Off the Hook

Why has Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein been so let off the hook about the failings of the Red Sox 2010 season?

Yeah, yeah, I've heard 100 times about the team suffering a rash of injuries that made it hard to make the playoffs. Yes, it's indisputable that the high number of injuries significantly reduced the team's chances. Just having Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, two of the Sox' key players, out with season-ending injuries, has been huge. And, yes, I know the sub-par performance of certain players is out of Theo's control.

But, let's be clear: Beyond the injuries, there were large gaps and flaws about the 2010 Sox in spring training, and new problems that emerged during the year, and, Epstein, in many ways, did little to address these problems. Indeed, if you look at the "big picture" of the 2010 season, Epstein has played a large, overlooked role in each phase of this disappointing season. First, during the off-season, Theo made his infamous remark - whether he was taken out of context or not - that he saw 2010 as a "bridge" year to the future. It's been hard not to think back to that remark because, ever since then, Theo and Company have made NO significant moves to improve this team's chances to win, thus reinforcing that perhaps they did view 2010 as a "transition." Theo was suddenly talking about how the team's better defense would bring more "run prevention"- a concept that many baseball writers and fans saw as a meaningless attempt to distract us from the team's lack of hitting.

Before spring training and after choosing to not re-sign Jason Bay, Theo chose to not add any new big hitters to the Red Sox lineup, which, if we all recall, was glaringly weak against the Los Angeles Angels in the 2009 ALDS. (The Sox got swept, remember?) Some baseball pundits (myself included!) thought the Sox needed to sign two new good hitters in the off-season - not just a replacement for Bay. Then, Theo signed Mike Cameron, an older player - past his prime - and gushed about how much Cameron would help the team's fielding from centerfield. As it turned out, Cameron fielded poorly from the start, and, we learned quickly, his season would be limited by a serious adominal injury. Also, Theo signed Jeremy Hermida, a reservie outfielder who had shown flashes of hitting talent, but, Hermida ended up contributing little.

Perhaps most importantly, Theo and Company signed pitcher John Lackey to a huge contract and third baseman Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal. Lackey, as it turned out, didn't pitch well most of the year. (He was average, at best) As of today (Sept..1st) Lackey has given up more hits than most starting pitchers in the American League --- not what you want from a supposed front-line pitcher you signed to an $80 million deal. I have a different take on Lackey than many. I think the Sox definitely overpaid him; however, when I watched Lackey perform at the end of 2009, he looked quite good. His fastball had movement and his curve was terrific. Well, guess what? While virtually no Boston baseball writers have pointed it out, Lackey's fastball has been subpar for almost this entire 2010 season. It has lacked movement, and, often, been hittable......but, my point here is that I don't "blame" Theo for much of that. He couldn't foresee that. I do worry that Lackey, with much "wear and tear" on his arm, may simply be declining and the drop in his movement may be a first key sign.

Let's consider Beltre separately. This is the move - more than any other - that has let Theo "off the hook" for 2010. Beltre has been outstanding - far beyond anyone's expectations - THE best, most consistent hitter on the Red Sox. There is NO way Theo Epstein expected Beltre to perform THIS well! Well, perhaps we should ponder the state of affairs if Beltre had had a more "typical" season for him -- meaning "average." You can bet one thing: The Red Sox would have lost at least a handful of more games than they have so far --- They'd have been a considerably worse team that likely would have dropped out of contention earlier in the summer. Beltre has carried this Sox team for stretches. My point is that if Beltre had not overachieved, Theo's lack of moves to bolster the team's hitting would have been far more exposed,and, he might have been held more accountable.

Beyond that, Epstein opted to have David Ortiz return, and, after a horrendous start, Ortiz has, to the surprise of many (including me) been a fairly good designated hitter most of the season. Did Theo expect that? I think, in fact, Theo and most of us, really didn't know what Ortiz would do; in fact, Ortiz couldn't hit the ball in spring training, if you recall. So,, again, Theo got lucky. Had Ortiz declined badly - which he very well might have - Theo would have looked much worse.

Staying on the theme of Theo's pure luck, a few of the minor-league players called up - like Darnell McDonald and Daniel Nava - performed better than expected for a while. Each thrilling game-winning hits at one point, and, again, fans were distracted fom focusing on the mediocrity of the team. Also, while some local writers have pointedly praised reserve player Billy Hall, Hall, in fact, is not a very good player. Yes, he hit some home runs that helped, and, yes, he played many positions, but, his fielding was poor quite often, and, more times than not, he was easy for good pitchers to get out.

Then, there's the case of one J.D. Drew, who, for whatever reason, seems to inspire Theo to have delusional thinking. Year after year now, Drew has had the same kind of "average" years, but he has not come close to earning his $14 million salary - which remains the highest salary for any position player on the team. Yes, he's a good fielder. Yes, he's got a good eye -- but, yes, he also hits into more weak groundball outs to the second baseman than almost anyone I've ever seen! It's time for someone in the Sox' baseball operations staff, or, one of their executives, to look Theo in the eye and tell him "Drew simply isn't as good as you think - period. Stop your stubborn denial over this!

I'd love to see Drew traded, but, no other team will pay his salary. The other night, in the key game vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, when Drew made an outstanding catch of the foul ball to right field -- a ball he should have let drop to prevent a run --- it typified Drew's essence: He showed a flash of his athleticism and talent, but, ultimately, it didn't help the team. To me, Drew will always seem to be a player with more talent than he shows. I'll always appreciate his $14 million grand slam in the 2007 playoffs, but that has been about the sum of his contributions since.

Back to Theo: I'm harping on Drew because, for me, Drew symbolizes Theo's "Achilles heel" as a GM. Theo and his baseball ops crew are way too hung up on stats, and, OBP is a prime example. Theo doesn't seem to emphasize raw hitting power enough and he de-emphasizes the importance of players' ability to hit with men on base. He's too wary of pursuing big name "star" players, who, he must be reminded, became "stars" for a reason. Instead, he likes signing reclamation projects and less expensive players with "value." He doesn't emphasize character enough, sometimes. (Example: Beltre has proved to be a very tough, gritty player but Edgar Renteria was overwhelmed by the pressures of Boston and guys like Tony LaRussa predicted Renteria would have trouble here) Letting Johnny Damon walk and trying to replace him with Coco Crisp in centerfield comes to mind as another example of Theo overlooking the need to pay for raw talent (like Damon's) and individuals with the right "chemistry" for Boston.

Of course, Theo and the ownership group paid an enormous sum to Daisuke Matsuzaka, who, at this point, even I have to say, seems more of a mistake. Matsuzaka, in 2010, has done a bit better, but, he still is annoyingly erratic. I've been a big supporter of Daisuke, but, I wouldn't mind if the Sox tried to trade him in the off-season to a team on the west coast. Matsuzka has been inconsistent for too long now. Just when you think he's over his bad habits - like walking too many players - he does it again in a big game. Will Theo be able to admit his mistake and get something back for Daisuke before it's too late? Or, will he have too much pride and hang onto him out of some principle - or in order to get a bit more "value" out of him?

Theo Epstein, throughout this 2010 season, seemed to restrain his impulses to invest and spend money on adding resources and improving its chances. Unlike in many other seasons, when he made major acquisitions at the trading deadline, in 2010, Theo did virtually nothing this year. And, from the spring onward, Theo "accepted" that the Sox bullpen simply was deficient and much weaker. Manny Delcarmen, Ramon Ramirez and Hideki Okajima had problems, early on, but, soon, we were all accepting that Daneil Bard and Jonathan Papelbon were the only reliable arms in the pen. Not acceptable.

In the recent all-pivotal series vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, a key moment emerged at the end of the Saturday night game. Clay Buchholz had pitched a beautiful game vs. Matt Garza of the Rays, who had also been superb. After Buchholz amd Felix Doubront both pitched the 8th inning and Bard pitched the 8th, manager Terry Francona brought in reliever Scott Atchison to pitch the 10th inning. The Rays hit a home run, and, in effect, ended the Red Sox season.

Why was Atchison even on the mound? Yes, you can disagree with Francona's decision to bring him in, but Francona has had tremendously limited options in his bullpen all season. Why? Because of Theo Epstein's decision to not invest in the bullpen because he didn't feel the 2010 season was worth investing too much in. Maybe fans would have gotten a more true picture of Epstein's role if he had come out to the mound escorting Scott Atchison Saturday night. He could have stood there when Atchison immediately gave up a home run.

Say what you want about the injuries to the 2010 Red Sox, but, they still had a good pitching staff - at least one that appeared to have more potential than it did. When a team has five good starters in its rotation, one can always argue that its GM should try hard to "go for it" because it's rare to have circumstances and luck result in such a deep rotation.

In 2010, Theo Epstein seemed to believe that, despite its rotation, the Red Sox had only a limited, small chance of winning it all. That's OK. I can accept that. I'm a bit tired, however, of everyone acting like if it weren't for the injuries, the Red Sox would have had an unstoppable team. They were flawed from the start, and Epstein played a big part in that.

Watching the End of the 2010 Season

I had looked forward to atttending my first game of the Red Sox 2010 season at Fenway Park on Thursday night, August 19th. The Sox were playing their last game vs. the Los Angeles Angels, a team that has fallen into mediocrity in 2010. In fact, the Sox, at gametime, were 9-0 vs. the Angels in 2010.

As it turned out, when I left Fenway later, I felt I had witnessed the end of the season. The game included several familiar themes: Josh Beckett pitched poorly and had some of his fastballs knocked around. The Red Sox could not hit at all against a good pitcher, Ervin Santana. The Sox bullpen performed poorly too.

Overall, it was a bit boring and discouraging to watch the Red Sox Thursday. Yes, they're less exciting without the injured Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia in the lineup. Yet, despite that, the team still lacks "punch" or electricity. Adrian Beltre was the only hitter who got me extra curious from my seat in close proximity to home plate.


The dynamic of the game was all too familiar to many others in 2010: The Sox fell behind by a few runs and you just didn't feel very confident they could mount a comeback. This has been a year when everything has seemed to depend on the starting pitching - and, besides Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester - the starting pitching has come up short.


Beckett has had a terrible year. Yes, he was on the disabled list for close to two months, but, when he returned, he displayed the same weaknesses he's experienced during much of his tenure on the Sox. He has failed to locate his fastball well and this has hurt him tremendously because he throws his fastball so, so often. (too often!) He's often left his heater too much down the middle and paid the price. Also, Beckett has often been unable to get his curveball over the plate; in fact, he seems to not even use his curveball as much as in the past. On Thursday night, he barely threw his curve until his last inning or two. He also still doesn't throw his changeup very often. Granted, it's not a high-quality change-up, but, it still could help keep hitters off balance.


Right now, Beckett is an "average" pitcher who the Red Sox treated like a "star" by giving him a big, four-year contract extension back in the spring. He's earning $12 million a year now, but that amount goes up during the contract time, I believe. It seems, now, anyway, that the Red Sox and GM Theo Epstein made a serious mistake to sign Beckett before they had to. His old contract was due to expire at the end of this season, and, certainly, his abysmal performance in 2010 would have impacted Epstein's thinking about re-signing him. I, for one, advocated that that Sox should wait until the end of this season to decide on whether to re-sign Beckett, but, the vast majority of baseball writers in this area recommended locking Beckett up for years.


The Red Sox also, of course, just signed John Lackey to a long-term, expensive contract, and, he, like Beckett, is pitching way below expectations. Lackey has given up more hits than almost all pitchers in the American League in 2010. His won-loss record is very misleading; he has received terrific run support and gotten some key breaks to win games he would have otherwise lost. All season, the key to Lackey's mediocrity has been the lack of movement on his fastball. For some reason, his fastball, also a key pitch in his arsenal, has lacked the same zip it has had in the past. The result has been that often when Lackey has left fastballs around the strike zone, opposing hitters have smacked them all over the park.


So, Beckett and Lackey, two likely fixtures in the rotation for the next few years, have been disappointing not only in 2010, but, because they've shown troubling tendencies that might be difficult to reverse in the future. I suppose the only consolation here is that both these guys seem to love winning and have some "fight" and motivation to work on improving their mechanics so they can return to winning ways.

The Sox simply don't have the talent to keep up with the Tampa Bay Rays or the NY Yankees for the weeks remaining in the season. The team has had an extraordinary number of injuries and the injuries alone probably would have kept them from competing in the playoffs. When you then factor in the poor performances of Beckett, Lackey and others, it's been amazing the Sox have done as well as they have.

The question now is: Will the Red Sox make some significant moves to improve the team for 2011? The team didn't do much to avoid some of the likely problems of 2010 (such as the bullpen and gaps in the hitting lineup) It would seem they'd feel some pressure to shake things up and add a few talented players for next season.

There are so many other problems facing the Sox:

• Manny Delcarmen seems to have lost his effectiveness. Perhaps it's related to past injuries, but, unless he can find solutions to his serious problems, he should not be allowed a slot in the bullpen in 2011.
• Hideki Okajima also just lost his way this season. Injuries seemed a more likely explanation for his troubles, but, it's unclear if he can return to his terrific form in 2007 or even 2008.
• Jonathan Papelbon must find a way to get the old zip back in his fastball, or, he will continue to decline. His salary has slowly risen as a result of his choosing to submit to the arbitration process, and, now, he earns more than the quality of his pitching. It's unclear Papelbon can get back his "giddy-up," but, it appears he'll only remain on the team one more season (2011) at best. He may be traded in the upcoming offseason.
• The lack of other good relief pitchers: The Sox should not be relying on guys like Scott Atchison, Dustin Richardson or Michael Bowden. Atchison has had a few good outings, but a number of lousy ones too. Bowden is a kid who needs more work in the minors. I ask anyone: Would these three show up in the Yankee bullpen? No way.
• The Red Sox must decide what they want to do with Jacoby Ellsbury. The relationship between Ellsbury and the Sox may now be too damaged to repair. I don't think Ellsbury is a good enough hitter to worry too much about losing, anyway, but, either way, the Sox need to regain the trust of Ellsbury and vice versa.
• Regarding JD Drew, I guess the only thing they can do is wait for his giant mistake of a contract to end, but, what a Big Mistake it was for Theo to ever sign this guy! Drew has had an even more disappointing year than his past few - but I barely have noticed the difference. He just doesn't do enough to help the team - period. He grounds to the second-baseman constantly. He takes too many pitches. He chokes in the clutch. He just isn' that good. I can't wait for this guy to leave this team!
• The Sox have a very tough decision on whether to keep David Ortiz, whose contract expires at the end of this season. The Sox have an option to bring Ortiz back for one year, but he wants to sign a deal for more than one year. I love Big Papi, but, I have to say I think the time has probably come to cut ties with him. He's getting a bit older, and, despite having a decent year, his skills are more limited. He doesn't deserve 12 million a year any longer. This one is very hard because of Papi's incredibly huge role in bringing the 2004 title to Boston after 86 years, but, maybe, it's time to start a new chapter without him. Put it this way: I'd keep Ortiz only if he meets the Sox half way - and accepts a shorter deal.
• The Sox must decide whether to bring back Beltre. All season, all the baseball writers assumed the team would never pay Beltre for a new deal after 2010. Now, it doesn't seem such a sure thing because Beltre has excelled at Fenway. He carried the team this year. If Beltre and his agent, Scott Boras, can be a bit reasonable and compromise, I'd consider keeping him......but, will Boras accept anything but a giant salary after Beltre's year? Not likely........leaving the Sox without a third baseman, and, without his superb hitting.
• The Sox should find a way to let go of Tim Wakefield once and for all. He can't pitch that well anymore and he also can't stay healthy. The Sox need to cut ties with Wake.

The list goes on and on. In the end, however, I'll always think back on the 2010 season as a "bridge year" -- just as Theo Epstein clumsily labled it last winter. It seemed like a wasted, lost season in many ways. Like a season the team was simply waiting to end. Maybe, in a strange way, it was better to have all the injuries come during a year the team didn't expect to win it all.

Can Papelbon Get His Giddy-Up Back?

(Note: This marks my re-activation of this Red Sox blog after nearly a year of my posting on another baseball blog called "Cub Fan, Hub Fan." On that blog, which I shared with a Chicago Cubs fan, I wrote the same commentary and analysis of the Red Sox that I did here in 2009. My goal, again, is to focus on aspects of the Red Sox that often go uncovered by the mainstream press).

Last year, throughout the Red Sox' 2009 season, I raised questions about the performance of Jonathan Papelbon, who has been the team's outstanding closer since 2006. I noticed, early on, that Papelbon's fastball lacked some of its old "late life" or "giddy-up" that has always made Papelbon so effective. I wrote about how Papelbon was, apparently, trying a new motion to preserve his arm strength. As the season progressed, I noticed - like many fans - that hitters fouled off far more pitches vs. Papelbon and that he often threw strikes that caught too much of the plate. But, I also pointed out that Papelbon's success appeared dependent on whether or not his fastball had "giddy-up" during a particular outing. I recalled that in Papelbon's earlier years, his location didn't matter as much because his fastball was so explosive that many hitters simply couldn't touch it. (My guess is I wrote more about Papelbon's loss of late movement on his fastball than almost any of the many Sox bloggers all over Red Sox Nation).

In the last game of the season, Papelbon blew Game 3 of the ALDS vs. the LA Angels of Anaheim and I, for one, was not that surprised because of his erratic ability to generate sufficient movement on his heater.

Now, in 2010, it has been the same storyline: For much of the season, Papelbon's fastball has lacked the old "late life" and he has been far more hittable than usual. Yet, Boston's baseball writers have spent very little time or space trying to point out the obvious about the deterioration in Papelbon's fastball. They keep writing: "What's wrong with Papelbon?" as if it's a mystery. They don't appear interested in observing or sharing what they see on the mound, or, perhaps they don't even pay enough attention to notice the differences.

Yesterday, on Aug. 12 of the 2010 season, Papelbon had one of his most disastrous outings when he blew his sixth save against the Toronto Blue Jays. Again, his fastball - while reaching speeds of 98 or 99 mph on the radar gun, was very hittable. Yes, part of Papelbon's problem was a lack of command: He left most of his pitches up in the zone. But, the bigger problem was his fastball lacked "giddy-up" and Toronto's hitters had no trouble whacking the ball.

Beginning yesterday and continuing in this morning's Aug. 13th newspapers, the coverage of Papelbon has focused on his unusual string of blown saves and overall decline, but, it has not focused on the key explanation for his troubles on the mound. It is all about the loss of movement on his fastball.

And, it could be an even more serious problem than the Red Sox have admitted thus far.

Think about it: First, in the past - like back in the 2008 season, for instance, my guess is that Papelbon would, in some outings, have better movement on his fastball than in others, but, overall, he had enough "late life" to continue to dominate hitters much of the time. In the 2009 season, Papelbon couldn't always throw the ball with "late life" and he had to work much harder to close out games. He walked more hitters. Often, they fouled off pitches that they used to swing and miss at. Now, in a further deterioration, Papelbon is often, again, unable to find the "late life" on his fastball, but, this season, he's experienced the problem in some big games and blown six games -- more than in any other season.

Can Papelbon get his old fastball back? It remains unclear. Even in recent weeks, there have been a few occasions when Papelbon HAS thrown the ball hard - with movement - and looked like his old self. But there have been other mediocre appearances and some awful ones too.

It seems to me that Papelbon has been going through a transition. Sometime before the 2009 season, he began pitching in a new motion aimed at sustaining his arm strength for the duration of the season. Why? While the Red Sox didn't seem eager to discuss the details of Papelbon's arm condition, they spoke about his goal of staying strong. Yet, later in 2009, I recall Papelbon saying, on one occasion, something to the effect that because he had pitched with that more "leg-driven" motion, he felt he could "let loose a bit more then. I noticed, he pitched several games with more of his old "giddy-up" than previously in 2009. Later, in the playoffs, he struggled again, but, I wondered what was going on with his arm.

I still wonder about Papelbon's arm. Is he more fragile than we think? I've vaguely noticed, a few times, that it seems sometimes when he gets the best "late life" on his heater, he's throwing the ball as if he's using more of his arm. I cannot explain it in detail, but the important part is that I think Papelbon varies his motion a bit when he wants to try more desparately to bring more movement.

Why am I writing about all these details? Because Papelbon is at a crossroads now with the team - and, it's coinciding with the team clinging on to slim hopes of still earning a wild card playoff berth. Baseball writers and fans are questioning Papelbon more than ever before. Some wonder if setup pitcher Daniel Bard should replace Pap as the closer. Many are speculating that Papelbon may be traded in the offseason because he'll become eligible for free agency after the 2011 season and the Red Sox might be unlikely to pay him the salary he demands.

At the moment, Papelbon, undoubtedly, is focusing more on his day-to-day pitching than his future. He must try hard to keep his confidence up despite the cumulative struggles.

By the time the season is over, I hope that one of the talented Boston baseball writers will tell us more of the whole story of what's been going on with Jonathan Papelbon. It's inexcusable to hear Boston sportswriters simply dwell on Papelbon's bad outcomes without providing any reporting on the actual reasons for the changes in his pitching.

It's not impossible for baseball writers to talk to enough players, coaches, pitchers - on or off-the-record - to get more comments on Papelbon's status. And it's surely not possible for reporters to pay more attention to what's happening when he's on the mound.

Papelbon has been the best closer I recall ever seeing in Boston. At his best, he's been close to "a sure thing" in the 9th inning, confidently blowing the ball by the best hitters in baseball. I don't think he's "done" all of a sudden, but, maybe he needs to rest his arm. I don't know. What I do know is that I expect more of an explanation from Boston baseball writers.

Can Papelbon get his "giddy-up" back? It's a simple question that no one seems able to answer as the 2010 season winds down.

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Sox Playoff Performance Reflected Season-long Flaws

In the end, the Red Sox playoff performance in 2009 should not have shocked even many Boston fans - if they were paying attention all season.

The Sox got swept by the Angels after many baseball pundits had projected the Sox to win. A disturbing number of writers cited the Sox past success against the Angels in the playoffs as a main reason they'd triumph again. Virtually every baseball account of Game Three, when the Angels rallied from behind against Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, described that as "shocking" or put it in a similar context. While I was completely surprised Papelbon gave it all up, I was not shocked by even that sequence. Why? Because, for a good part of the season, I watched Papelbon struggle to get through his outings when he was often unable to finish off hitters - from all parts of the opposing team's lineup. (See my earlier blogs on Papelbon) In some of his "bad" games, he'd give up a hit or two, a walk, and a couple of line-drive outs, and then, somehow - whether due to an adrenalin rush or more intense focus or some magic -- he'd excape from the outing without yielding a run. My big point is that Papelbon has not been himself much of the year. What's baffling is that in the last weeks of the season, he pitched more consistently than before. Yet, when he kept throwing sub-par fastballs (for him) high in the strike zone to a few Angels' hitters, who basked the ball, it was familiar - in an eerie way - to me, and, I'm sure, other fans.

Now that 24 hours have passed and I've begun digesting that the season is really over, I'll give a list of my "first reactions" to this disappointing ALDS. (More to come)

• The Red Sox will have to try to improve their weak, inconsistent hitting during the off-season. For the Sox to get only 8 hits and 1 run in the first two games was truly pathetic, but, we watched this team get shut down by good pitchers on many opposing teams - along with rookie pitchers they had never seen.
• The Red Sox will have to keep in mind - as they look for new hitters - that this 2009 team hit poorly on the road for most of the year. They were SO, SO much better at home that this reflected their weakness (on rd.) more than strength at their hitter-friendly park.
• They will also have to address a need for both "contact hitters" and "power hitters." They really miss the days of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, in their Gehrig-Ruth imitation, when they could hit anything in or out of the park. We realize more now, after a season and a half, that the LOSS of this duo in their prime has impacte the Sox whole lineup and how pitchers view it. Pitchers DO seem more relaxed against the Sox, don't they?
• The Red Sox cannot ever view Josh Beckett the same way now. If he stays on the team, they will have to monitor him far more closely and plan proactively to help him avoid arm fatigue or injury. He has "broken down" significantly two seasons in a row and hurt the team's playoff chances each time. It's not clear what's going on with his arm. His arm appeared tired, to me, during the last two months. He couldn't throw his fastball as hard or with the same good command and his curveball became less effective or consistent.
• The Red Sox management has to start acknowledging that yes, the Sox can win 95 games by feasting off the mediocre Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and other teams - and, still not have what it takes to go all the way. This 09 team illustrated the limits of baseball statistics; I kept hearing they scored more runs than most American League teams. So what? They racked up blowout scores vs. the lousy teams, but, often lost against the best teams.
• I know Theo Epstein will never part with JD Drew, but, he should overcome his denial about Drew's value. In a recent radio interview, Theo went out of his way to assert Drew's statistics were pretty good, but he took things out of context. Theo should know better. If you watch the games, you know how many times Drew has been right on the edge of being able to keep a key rally going, but he often strikes out on a called strike or goes down in a feeble-looking at-bat -- despite all the natural talent he possesses. If Theo were consistent, he'd consider shopping Drew and trying to eat part of his contract because he's contributed far too little for a guy earning $13 million a year.
• I wonder if David Ortiz will want to come back next year? I have an impulse that Ortiz and the Sox could come to some agreement - and, either he gets traded or something happens. I feel something unpredictable might happen with Big Papi. He was very unhappy with the press reaction to the steroid allegations against him even though it was relatively mild. I also am not sure Mike Lowell will return. Each have contracts extending through next year, but, each are veterans who may wanat to take some control of their destiny.
• I think Jason Varitek should probably retire - and I think he may choose to, but, if he comes back, I hope he honestly expects he can be in radically reduced, different role and still contribute to the team. I have trouble imagining him in this role - as an occasional back-up catcher. My guess is the team and Varitek will agree on some kind of "buy-out" of his option, which would pay him $3 million for 2010.
• Clay Buchholz absolutely - without any question - MUST be in the starting rotation in April. He's fully earned it and if he were left out of the rotation, I would not blame him for asking for a trade.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka's role doesn't seem as "definite" as one might think. First, he had a "forgottten season" in 2009, spending most of it getting in shape before returning for a few starts only to find out that he would not get a start in the ALDS. The team chose to pitch Buhcholz in Game Three and were prepared to pitch Lester on three days rest in Game Four. That's not a vote of confidence for Daisuke. I can imagine Dice-K returning, but I also will not be shocked if the Sox try to trade him.
  

Angels Shut Down Sox Bats Again; Beckett's Best Is Not Enough

Limited Hitting Skills Haunt Sox Vs. Angels

The Red Sox hitters have saved their worst for last. In the first two games of the ALDS vs. the Angels, they've barely gotten wood on the ball.

Angel pitchers John Lackey and Jered Weaver, on consecutive nights, each limited the Red Sox to only four hits. In Game One, the Angels won 5 - 0. In Game Two, it was 4 -1.

This weak hitting against first-rate pitching has plagued the Red Sox all season. When they struggle against quality pitching, they really struggle. Their display in the playoffs has been particularly pitiful given that it counts more.

It's clear the Sox have to make moves in the off-season to shore up their line-up. Their lack of "contact hitters" has hurt them all year, and it's killing them against the Angels. When facing tough pitching, the need for hitters to simply make contact and poke a few singles - however they can - is essential. The Sox have only two or three hitters who are half-decent or better at hitting a variety of pitches for contact: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez. David Ortiz can't make contact well anymore; when he hits, it's usually a double or home run, it seems. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell can be pitched to, especially with breaking pitches. JD Drew is simply too erratic. Jacoby Ellsbury, while improved at making contact, still has a long way to go. Alex Gonzalez is a weak, poor contact hitter.

So, as depressing as it is, the Sox performance vs. the Angels feels like a negative culmination of trends all summer. Of course, they could mount a comeback, but the chances are REMOTE.

Beckett Did Well for Six Innings, then His Problems Re-appeared - BADLY

Josh Beckett did better than I predicted last night - but, he still didn't look right. His fastball was at a lower velocity and he didn't even throw his curveball often. Somehow, relying on guile and experience, he gutted it out and survived six innings, surrendering only three hits.

Frankly, I don't know how Beckett did it. I missed watching the first three innings while WTBS covered the Yankees-Twins game. From what I saw, he had much better control of his fastball than in recent outings. My guess was that he had to keep his velocity down in order to get the kind of good commant necessary to pitch in his sub-par state. I give Beckett credit for finding a way to make the best of a bad situation.

Yet, with the score, amazingly, still tied 1 -1 going into the Angels' bottom half of the 7th, I thought Terry Francona probably should've taken Beckett out of the game, given his recent struggles and the limitations in his approach all night.

Beckett walked the first batter in the 7th, but, it wasn't just any hitter. It was Vladimir Guerrero, who NEVER walks and is the biggest "free swinger" in baseball. This was a BAD sign, and, should've further prompted Francona to prepare to remove Beckett. Instead, Beckett ran the count to 3 -0 on Kendry Morales before he got him to fly out to left field. Howie Kendrick, who pinch ran, stole second. Juan Rivera grounded out, but, then Maicer Izturis singled to center to knock in the go-ahead run, as the Angels now led 2 -1. Now, I figured, it was clearly time to get a relief pitcher in there......but, NO........Francona left Beckett in. Beckett, by now, looked tired and not up to the task. He then hit Mike Napoli with a pitch and got angry that Napoli didn't try to avoid it. Next, Beckett threw a fastball (meatball) down the middle to Aybar, who tripled to center, knocking in two more runs, to make the score 4 - 1. Finally, Billy Wagner came in to relieve Beckett and record the last out in the 7th.

This morning, most media reports on the game stayed away from discussing Beckett. Most mentioned him doing well until the 7th, but, Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, seemed to share some of my perspective when he cited how Beckett pitched with less in his arsenal, and, then, things fell apart for him in an uncharacteristically in the 7th:

McAdam wrote:

"..The Beckett on display in the seventh inning was a poor imitation of the Beckett from 2007. He labored through 28 pitches, showed shaky command (one walk, one hit batter) and was finally done in by a booming triple to center by Erick Aybar, the Angels' No. 9 hitter....."

"...And, there was this: Beckett's fastball lacked its usual bite most of last night, but particularly in the seventh when the Sox' post-season hung in the balance. He couldn't finish off hitters and didn't get many swings and misses.
His fastball, once reliably a mid-90s weapon to go with a knee-buckling curve, seldom topped 91-92 mph last night. At times, he threw fastballs at 89 mph a tick above average....

Then, McAdam recounted how Beckett had relied on guts to pitch in the 2008 playoffs, but given up 14 runs in 14 innings without making excuses.

"Is Beckett pitching hurt again this fall? That may be a matter of semantics....McAdam continued, before reporting Beckett's denial, last Thursday, of any physical problems.

It's hard to know exactly how Beckett's condition impacted Game Two, or, beyond that, the team's preparation for the playoffs. If the Sox comeback and force a Game 5, there is a chance Beckett may pitch again.
Even beyond the 2009 playoffs, however, it seems the Red Sox, from this point on, should reconsider how they monitor Beckett's pitching in future years to prevent physical problems from emerging again right before the playoffs.

Sox Go Into Critical Game Two With Beckett Off His Game

Josh Beckett and the Red Sox are still maintaining that there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett as he prepares to start in tonight's all-important Game Two of the ALDS against the Angels.
The Sox lost Game One last night, and, if they lose tonight, they'd face an incredibly difficult task of winning three in a row with Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka slated for Games 3 and 4.

"There's no issues physically at all," Beckett told the Boston Globe in Amalie Benjamin's article from Anaheim in the Oct. 9th edition.

Beckett had back spasms before his second-to-last start of the season and received three cortisone injections in his back before his last start, when he was pitched quite poorly for part of the game and a bit better in his last few innings.
After pitching superbly for a lengthy stretch earlier in the season, Beckett suddenly became less and less effective in August and September. Both his fastball and curve were not as effective as the season winded down, and, his fastball command got worse over time. His starts raised questions until, finally - when the Sox discussed Beckett's back problems, it appeared we had the explanation for at least some of his struggles. Yet, even after the cortisone shots, Beckett still didn't look right.
In any event, the Red Sox and Beckett have claimed he's fine now. The Sox organization, in essence, is claiming that a large part of Beckett's pitching problems has been due to flaws in his pitching mechanics, or, issues unrelated to health or fatigue.
I sense the explanation given by Beckett and the Red Sox is neither complete or accurate. I think Beckett's health and condition might take on more significance after tonight's game is over.
I've witnessed what everyone has: That Beckett has not been himself at all for nearly two months. My own belief is that he has a tired arm and that's why he's been unable to throw his fastball with the normal zip or location. He has a history of pitching better with a bit more rest, in general.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Beckett is able to overcome his physical limitations tonight. I'll be amazed if he makes it to the seventh inning tonight, or, even, if he pitches a very good six innings. I hope I'm wrong.
I want to illustrate my point by sharing an exchange I had today - when I submitted a question to Boston Globe baseball reporter Adam Kilgore during Kilgore's a public "chat" with readers no the Globe's online site, Boston.com
I submitted a short question, like many fans, and Kilgore posted a brief reply during the "chat" - featured on Boston.com's website.

I wrote:

"Adam, I don't understand why you and other Boston baseball writers are not acknowledging the likelihood that Beckett is suffering from arm fatigue. He's pitched sub-par for nearly two months and signs suggest he does wear down at end of seasons."

Adam Kilgore replied to me, during the "chat session:

"Trust me, myself and other baseball writers have asked the right people about Beckett's issues and they've all said no, any issues are mechanical. If I started writing what you want me to, I'd be making it up. Also, for the record, over the past two months, Beckett is 5-2 with a 4.60 ERA and a .265 average against.

There it is: If Kilgore's characterization is true, it makes the incongruence between Beckett's performances and the Red Sox' explanation even more mysterious.

I recall we went through a somewhat similar circumstance last year. Beckett was suffering from an oblique injury heading into the 2008 playoffs, and, struggled badly in a few starts, but the team kept maintaining that he'd somehow be able to perform. As time passed, I wondered why he was even pitching. He was in bad shape - a shell of himself.

I hope Beckett pitches a gem tonight. If he does, all signs suggest it'll be a tremendous reversal of difficulties related to arm fatigue or an unknown injury that've hindered him for nearly two months. The facts and the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Could Beckett Hurt the Sox in Playoffs Again?

The signs look bad for Josh Beckett's potential to shine in the playoffs. In his last, regular-season start on Saturday, Beckett could have reassured Red Sox Nation by simply throwing his fastball with his usual sharp command. Instead, Beckett could not locate his fastball AT ALL in the first few innings. He was BAD. If he'd been pitching against the Yankees, he might've been knocked out the game, but, because it was the Indians, he wiggled his way out of things without more damage. Yet, for Beckett, you have to wonder when he's going to get his fastball command back. He's been pitching in sub-par fashion for nearly two months now -- with some outings far worse than others, but none at the high calibre of the great stretch he had earlier in the summer.
Beckett improved somewhat in his last couple of innings, but, overall, it was a mediocre outing.

It's impossible to know what's going on with Beckett and the mystery is heightened by his "John Wayne" tendencies when it comes to not admitting when he's hurt. My own guess, for a while now, is that Beckett has been tired in recent weeks -- that his arm is fatgued and that he should have been rested. Evidence suggested that. Beckett has never thrown as many innings as he has this season, and, he always pitches better when on 5 days rest rather than 4 -- and there are more facts that back up this theory. In any event, now, we all have to just hope that another five days gives Beckett a little extra strength to pitch more like his old self in Game Two vs the Angels. I don't think he's going to be able to get back to his old form, however. I think he's really tired, and, probably would benefit from shutting it down for the season now.

I hope I'm wrong. In other developments: Buchholz pitched his second lousy game in a row today - the last day of the season, so, he, too, is cause for worry. Who knows if he can stay poised on the mound in Game 3, especially after he runs into a jam? He's been better about losing his poise in recent weeks, but, his most recent two starts make you wonder if playoff regression is possible.

All in all, I just don't think this is the Red Sox year - and I think the Angels will in. Before, I guessed in five games, but, my revision now is that it could be in any combination -- I just think the Angels's superiority will guide them to beating the Sox this time.

Denial Dominates Wait for the ALDS

God, I can't take it anymore. Every day, I hear sports radio talk show hosts and Boston baseball writers talk about the 2009 Red Sox in inflated terms. Everyone here is predicting an easy win for the Red Sox when they face the Angels in the first round of the playoffs next week.
I doubt I'll hear a single sportswriter pick the Angels before the series next week.

Why? Well, that's what's amazing: Nobody offers good reasons, when, in fact, one can make just as strong a case for the Angels winning. The Angels, like the Sox, are one of the elite teams in baseball, but, many Sox fans disregard the strength of the 2009 Angels' hitting lineup, including, for example, Torre Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales and Chone Figgins, who is always stealing bases and distracting pitchers. At one point this season, I think almost the entire Angels' lineup was hitting over .300.

The Angels took the season series with the Red Sox 5 -4 in games. The Angels pitching rotation is back to normal with John Lackey and Ervin Santana over injuries. The Angels' speed on the bases is likely to cause big trouble for Sox pitchers and catchers, who have proven to be among the worst in baseball at preventing stolen bases.


Despite all this, baseball writers and fans have repeated the flawed, thoughtless argument that because the Red Sox have beaten the Angels in the ALDS playoffs three times in recent years, they simply have the Angels' number. Of course, each season, the two teams have had very different hitting lineups and pitchers, but, that doesn't stop the silly home bias.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox go into the playoffs with major question marks. The biggest is the status of Josh Beckett, who hasn't pitched in top form for the better part of two months. He recently missed a start due to back spasms that were serious enough to prompt the team to give him cortisone shots to improve his condition. For Beckett to succeed against the Angels, and, particularly, the Yankees, he must be at the top of his game. On the plus side, Jon Lester seemed fine tonight - in his first start after being hit in the knee last week - and got his 15th win.
While Clay Buchholz has pitched superbly for a number of starts, his most recent bad outing was a reminder that he's not a sure thing in his first playoff start. Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not repeat his last terrific start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Hideki Okajima has pitched poorly in recent weeks and who knows if he'll snap out of that funk? Manny Delcarmen has been so bad lately that he really shouldn't be used at all. Daniel Bard has given up loud hits lately. Ramon Ramirez has been erratic.
Other players are peaking at the right time. Jonathan Papelbon looked sharp tonight and has thrown more consistently - with better location - for about a month now. Jason Bay has been belting the ball lately. Big Papi has hit more doubles and homer runs lately. Victor Martinez has hit well during his entire time with the team.

In the end, I feel it's harder to predict the performance of this 09 edition of the Sox than other teams in the past decade. If I have to guess who will win the ADLS now, I'd probably pick the Angels in 5.

Red Sox, Despite Denial of Media and Fans, Are Overmatched by Yankees - Period

I cannot understand why so many Red Sox fans are in denial about the limitations of this team - when compared directly to the 2009 New York Yankees. I see the Red Sox as one of the better teams in baseball, but, they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to the Yankees right now. Not even close.

All one has to do is watch the teams' head-to-head games. It's not a fluke that the Yanks have won nine of the last ten games vs. the Red Sox. They're simply much better. Earlier in the year, when the Sox won eight in a row vs. the Yanks, that Yankee team was more flawed and missing A-Rod for a chunk of that period. Now, it's painful to watch these old rivals play because the dynamic - instead of being close and competitive and suspenseful - has evolved into a mismatch over the past few months. The Yanks, with Phil Hughes excelling as their setup man and C.C. Sabathia being an incredibly consistent ACE for most of the year and seven or eight players hitting 20 homes runs or more - and on - and on, have the best team in all of baseball - and, clearly the big favorites to win the World Series.

So, why do fans and writers around Boston persist in a state of mass denial about the mismatch between the Yanks and the Sox? Why do they come up with arguments and theories that amount to poppycock about how the Sox pitchers are SO, SO much better than the Yankee pitchers even though, in recent series, most of the Yankee pitchers have simply outperformed our pitchers? Why do they pretend not to see the enormous gap in talent between the Yankee hitters and the Red Sox hitters? The Yankee lineup can consistently score runs against good pitchers while the Red Sox have often been shut down by an array of "average" pitchers - including rookies - this year. The baseball writers and fans here have held on to this parochial, narrow-minded, naieve view that the Sox are equal to the Yanks - even if the stats and what one sees on the field shows that is false.
I wish all this were not so. I hate the Yankees and I'm sick of everything about them, including all the credit they get for simply having an All-Star team that plays like All-Stars --- but, this year, it's going to take some outstanding pitching by some team to stop this Yankee juggernaut. Maybe the Angels could do it with pitching, hitting and a lot of steals. Maybe the Phillies could get pitching and have hitting that keeps them close enough to win.

The only way the Red Sox have a chance vs. the Yanks - if they face them in the ACLS again - is with near-perferct pitching from Jon Lester and Josh Beckett - with one great game from Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka mixed in. However, Beckett, unfortunately, has not been in top form for the past month and a half. His mechanics got messed up (or he has secret injury)and he's much more hittable. Meanwhile, after a line drive hit Lester in the knee on Friday, Sept. 25th, he may be impacted negatively somehow by the opening of the playoffs, although the signs are good. The point is the Yankees' hitting line-up is historically top-notch. It is even more of a powerhouse than some of the other All-Star lineups the Bombers have fielded in recent years!
This means there is almost no margin of error when you play the Yankees, who, uncoincidentally, are about to win their 100th game any day now.
The Red Sox, by contrast, has often featured Jason Varitek, who's batting about .140 for the second half. And virtually all of our hitters - except Victor Martinez - are less consistent and more streaky than the Yanks. I won't go on illustrating it Any observer cannot deny the Yankees' hitting superiority. The Yanks, literally, do not have one weak hitter in their lineup!
What's amazing is how so many sportswriters and fans go to extraordinary lengths to explain how the two teams are virutally "equal" and to claim our pitching is so much better and our bullpen is better -- blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. C.C. Sabathia is the only ace who overwhelmingly shut down the other team twice in a row - which is what he just did by allowing only one hit today over seven innings after coming close to that domination in his previous win vs. the Sox. Beckett, meanwhile, has been erratic against the Yanks. Lester has been good, but, before he got hit by the line drive Friday night, and had half-decent stuff, he was still getting knocked around. The Yankees can win games multiple ways - as they did in the first two games of the current series against the Red Sox. The won the first 9 - 5 with hitting and good pitching and then today, they won with a masterpiece by Sabathia and not as much clutch hitting, 3-0.
I want the Red Sox to beat the Angels in the ADLS, but, while I'm watching, I know I'll have sort of ambivalent feelings. Why? I'll feel that the Angels have a better chance to beat the Yankees, who they did well against again in 2009, than the Red Sox will. I'm tired of watching an overmatched edition of the Yankees beat up on the Sox. It feels like going back in time to the late 1990s.
I just don't get why so many baseball writers and fans can call the Red Sox what they are against the Yankees: Big Underdogs. There's nothing wrong with being Underdogs. I'll root for them against the Angels - as underdogs against them too. And telling the truth about your team can be more therapeutic than living in fantasyland.