Ten Points as the Season Opens Today

1) While I agree with others that the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all have the potential to win the American League East, it bugs me how many baseball writers and fans are saying the exact same things about these teams. I think one or more of these teams will probably not come close to living up to expectations. (My guess: the Rays) Teams so often look good on paper, but run into unforeseen developments - like injuries - every season.
Look at the Yankees in the past eight years: In April, they've always appeared awesome, but, they haven't won the World Series since 2000.

2) Speaking of baseball writers being in "lockstep," virtually everyone is saying the Yankees' starting rotation is the best around. I, for one, am not buying it. Yes, they have good pitching, but, I won't call it great yet. I predict, by the end of the season, two or three of their starters will have not performed up to expectations. Sabathia, in his first year amidst the pressures of NY, is not as much of a "guarantee" as predicted. I think AJ Burnett will not be the reliable "stud" pitcher all are suggesting. His chances for injury are high, if you check his career stats. Chien-Ming Wang can be erratic at times, especially in "big" games. It's still not clear that Joba Chamberlain is best-suited to be a starter for a whole season. He throws so hard that he may run into injuries - as he did last year. Andy Petitte is old and his skills are in decline.
Plus, the Yankee bullpen is not so "special" either -- meaning, if these over-rated starters get into trouble, maybe Joe Girardi will wear out his set-up guys the way Joe Torre used to.

3) Tim Wakefield should NOT be in the Sox starting rotation. Hell, I don't think he should even be on the team anymore. Wakefield is reportedly a terrific guy off the field. The problem is he just isn't that good anymore. He has not pitched consistently in the past few years. The Red Sox have a soft spot for "Wake" - or denial. I'm sick of hearing about how "he's a good "innings guy."
Yeah - bad innings. I predict he will again do poorly and it will probably take the team too long to yank him from the rotation. Clay Buchholz should be in his spot - period.

3) The Red Sox hitting is much more of a question mark than some of the "lapdog" Boston writers have been claiming. The hitting is good, but not great - on paper. The way things are trending, Pedroia and Youkilis will probably have solid years. David Ortiz can hit for power again, but, the question for Big Papi is whether his wrist will hold up ALL summer. Jacoby Ellsbury must show that he can keep adjusting, in general, and, even, during an at-bat, and hitting those inside fastballs. So, he's no certainty.
Mike Lowell will be OK if his hip holds up. JD Drew is erratic at best, when healthy, and, often, injured. Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie can both hit but, while Bay hits for a bit more power, each can be fooled by a good pitcher's breaking stuff. That leavesVaritek, and he the question is if he'll break .240 All in all, this is not a rock-solid, offense. It's got holes, but..........if a few players have good streaks (like Drew in June last year) and Baldelli or others do well, they might be good enough to win.

4) I think when Baldelli does play, he'll have some pop in his bat and make it harder to keep him on the bench at times.

5) I do agree with others on the value of John Smoltz. It seems likely that come the mid-summer, he'll find a way into that rotation, and, down the stretch, I bet he'll win a few big games. They have to use discretion in how they use Smoltz to help keep him strong, however.

6) I think Buchholz will find his way back into the rotation. He's just too good to stay in the minors. He's regained his confidence and wants to prove himself. It'd be a shame to not put him a position to comeback.

7) Daniel Bard will be called up to make a contribution, and, if his 100 mph heater is zipping by hitters, maybe he'll stay a while.

8) I think it's premature to rave about the Boston bullpen. Saito is coming off an injury. Okajima started to pitch better during parts of last year. Delcarmen was erratic. Papelbon became completely wiped out by the playoffs. He was tiring at the end of the season, relying too much on the fastball. Hitters have adjsuted to Papelbon, and he has to keep counter-adjusting to stay on top. I think he can do that, but he needs regular rest.

9) If the Red Sox inconsistent hitting results in them trailing in the AL East come July, I think they'll try to get a good hitter by the trading deadline.

10) The Yankees lost today and Sabathia got shelled! What a great start to the Sox season!