At the end of many baseball seasons, the teams that are playing their best sometime in the last four or six weeks often keep the momentum going right into the playoffs and give themselves a chance to win it all.
Are the 2009 Red Sox one of those teams?
They haven't shown many signs of "getting on a hot streak" during this strange season. In fact, when one looks back, how often were the different components of the team -- starting pitchers, bullpen, hitters -- all performing well together? I cannot think of one time, really. On the contrary, I recall pitchers and hitters all going through ups and downs most of the year.
Very few players have been steady all year and it makes it hard to predict what will happen in September or beyond. One truth: The team has more strengths now - more good players on the roster - than at any other point. I say that mainly because of the additions of Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez and the several new players who joined the team today when the roster expanded.
The "Good, but not Great" Problem on the Sox
The Red Sox have only a few players who I'd classify as "great" right now. Josh Beckett has pitched great for much of the year, but, started slowly, and, unfortunately, is now in a mysterious slump that's hopefully related to mechanics rather than an injury. I think Jon Lester is a great pitcher, but he's had enough bumps in the road to prevent a "great" record. Kevin Youkilis, to me, barely qualifies as a "great" hitter. I'd say he's "very good." Jason Bay has been "very good," but, his slump was too long and his inability to hit breaking pitches prevents him from being "great." Jonathan Papelbon doesn't quite seem "great" anymore, but he's still a damned good closer.
Without reviewing all the players, my point is that it's hard for a team to win the World Series without a few big stars -- guys playing like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were a few years ago. Or, guys like Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes or Mariano Rivera for the Yankees. Or, on the Rays: Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena or Matt Garza.
The question is whether a bunch of those "good" Sox players will rise to the occasion in September and/or the playoffs?
A player who is trending in the right direction, for example is Jacoby Ellsbury. In recent weeks, he has suddenly been hitting consistently and more comfortable and confident at the plate. (He made an enormous contribution to winning this game tonight vs the Rays!)
A player I've lost confidence in is Ramon Ramirez, who seems to give up hits during every outing and has lost his capacity to locate the ball where he wants -- as he did earlier in the season.
If you go through the lineup, there are "qualifiers" attached to so many players. Ortiz has hit better lately, but, he still seems less able to hit off-speed or breaking pitches as well as in the past. Dustin Pedroia has been erratic with men on base for much of the year. J.D. Drew, who has had a BAD year, has hit much better the past few weeks. With the pitchers, Bard started out off the charts, but has looked more mortal in recent weeks. Hideki Okajima has been very good most of the year, but more erratic in the second half. He just came into a 7 -2 game vs. the Rays and allowed five Rays in a row to reach base.
The Sox Also Would Need Luck to Advance In the Playoffs
On sports radio, all the callers and hosts keep saying that because the Red Sox have Beckett and Lester, they'll be tough for any team to beat in the playoffs. I guess I don't agree. I'd say Beckett and Lester can give the team a good chance, but the "average" or inconsistent nature of their hitting line-up - particularly against good pitchers - makes them more beatable. Their bullpen is good, but seems a bit more vulnerable with Okajima, and, especially Ramirez not as consistent. It sounds funny, but I think Billy Wagner could be a big factor. He has looked fantastic in his two outings - including tonight against the Rays - and his experience could prove invaluable in the playoffs.
Of course, just while I'm expressing these doubts, Papelbon has gotten one of his best saves of the season -- his first two-inning, six-out save -- and this at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla, where the Sox usually stink. Who knows with this team?
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
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