The 2009 season all seems to rest on whether Josh Beckett can regain his top form.
If he can, again, pitch at his best, the Red Sox have a chance to win games in the playoffs.
If he remains "limited" - whether due to problems in his pitching mechanics, fatigue or an unknown injury, most agree the Sox will go nowhere.
As for me, I agree on the need for Beckett's "A game," but, I strongly doubt the Sox will advance far in the playoffs even with that. Why? Their hitting is too weak against good pitching, and, if they make the playoffs, they'll face only opposing teams' best pitchers.
I agreed with a point made this week by Tony Massarotti on his new radio show: This 2009 Sox team has not proven they can perform well against good teams.
All you have to do is look up the Red Sox record vs. other teams with winning records in the American League, and, you'll find the discouraging results. Yes, the Red Sox still have a 9-6 edge against the Yankees with three games left between the teams, but, I know no fan who believes the current Sox are as good as the current Yanks. The Sox ran up their 8-0 initial lead in that series when the Yanks were dealing with injuries and other issues. Now, the Yanks are by far, the scariest team in baseball, heading toward 100 plus wins and with seven of their nine starting players already with at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter needs three to make that eight players. So, I think we can agree the Sox are not as good as the Yanks.
The Rays lead 9 - 6 in games vs the Sox with three games left. The Angels are 4 -2 vs the Sox with a three-game series coming up. The Rangers - their primary wild card opponent now - are 7 - 2 vs the Sox in 2009. The Mariners are 4 - 2 vs. the Sox. The Twins are 4-2 vs the Sox.
The only real exception is that the Red Sox went 6-1 vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers deteriorated into a bad team, so, that feat means little. The Red Sox couldn't manage more than a 4-4 split against the White Sox, who are a game below 500 as of Sept. 10th.
Now, yes, with Jon Lester pitching well and, possibly, a sharper Beckett, the Sox might surprise by advancing in the playoffs. They're a better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and an expanded roster. However, their hitting has often been average of below average against either teams' "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers OR many young pitchers they had never faced before.
The team desparately needs one consistent slugger in its lineup. (Manny and the Big Papi of years past are gone) Several of its decent hitters - whether Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or Jason Bay - have been inconsistent with men on base. JD Drew has performed poorly most of the year, until the past month or so. Jacoby Ellsbury has hit his peak recently, but will he continue that against top-notch pitchers in the playoffs.
I'm trying to keep hope alive, but, I know one thing: This Red Sox team will have to morph into a better, different team in order to do well in the playoffs -- if it makes the playoffs.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
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