Sox Playoff Performance Reflected Season-long Flaws

In the end, the Red Sox playoff performance in 2009 should not have shocked even many Boston fans - if they were paying attention all season.

The Sox got swept by the Angels after many baseball pundits had projected the Sox to win. A disturbing number of writers cited the Sox past success against the Angels in the playoffs as a main reason they'd triumph again. Virtually every baseball account of Game Three, when the Angels rallied from behind against Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, described that as "shocking" or put it in a similar context. While I was completely surprised Papelbon gave it all up, I was not shocked by even that sequence. Why? Because, for a good part of the season, I watched Papelbon struggle to get through his outings when he was often unable to finish off hitters - from all parts of the opposing team's lineup. (See my earlier blogs on Papelbon) In some of his "bad" games, he'd give up a hit or two, a walk, and a couple of line-drive outs, and then, somehow - whether due to an adrenalin rush or more intense focus or some magic -- he'd excape from the outing without yielding a run. My big point is that Papelbon has not been himself much of the year. What's baffling is that in the last weeks of the season, he pitched more consistently than before. Yet, when he kept throwing sub-par fastballs (for him) high in the strike zone to a few Angels' hitters, who basked the ball, it was familiar - in an eerie way - to me, and, I'm sure, other fans.

Now that 24 hours have passed and I've begun digesting that the season is really over, I'll give a list of my "first reactions" to this disappointing ALDS. (More to come)

• The Red Sox will have to try to improve their weak, inconsistent hitting during the off-season. For the Sox to get only 8 hits and 1 run in the first two games was truly pathetic, but, we watched this team get shut down by good pitchers on many opposing teams - along with rookie pitchers they had never seen.
• The Red Sox will have to keep in mind - as they look for new hitters - that this 2009 team hit poorly on the road for most of the year. They were SO, SO much better at home that this reflected their weakness (on rd.) more than strength at their hitter-friendly park.
• They will also have to address a need for both "contact hitters" and "power hitters." They really miss the days of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, in their Gehrig-Ruth imitation, when they could hit anything in or out of the park. We realize more now, after a season and a half, that the LOSS of this duo in their prime has impacte the Sox whole lineup and how pitchers view it. Pitchers DO seem more relaxed against the Sox, don't they?
• The Red Sox cannot ever view Josh Beckett the same way now. If he stays on the team, they will have to monitor him far more closely and plan proactively to help him avoid arm fatigue or injury. He has "broken down" significantly two seasons in a row and hurt the team's playoff chances each time. It's not clear what's going on with his arm. His arm appeared tired, to me, during the last two months. He couldn't throw his fastball as hard or with the same good command and his curveball became less effective or consistent.
• The Red Sox management has to start acknowledging that yes, the Sox can win 95 games by feasting off the mediocre Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and other teams - and, still not have what it takes to go all the way. This 09 team illustrated the limits of baseball statistics; I kept hearing they scored more runs than most American League teams. So what? They racked up blowout scores vs. the lousy teams, but, often lost against the best teams.
• I know Theo Epstein will never part with JD Drew, but, he should overcome his denial about Drew's value. In a recent radio interview, Theo went out of his way to assert Drew's statistics were pretty good, but he took things out of context. Theo should know better. If you watch the games, you know how many times Drew has been right on the edge of being able to keep a key rally going, but he often strikes out on a called strike or goes down in a feeble-looking at-bat -- despite all the natural talent he possesses. If Theo were consistent, he'd consider shopping Drew and trying to eat part of his contract because he's contributed far too little for a guy earning $13 million a year.
• I wonder if David Ortiz will want to come back next year? I have an impulse that Ortiz and the Sox could come to some agreement - and, either he gets traded or something happens. I feel something unpredictable might happen with Big Papi. He was very unhappy with the press reaction to the steroid allegations against him even though it was relatively mild. I also am not sure Mike Lowell will return. Each have contracts extending through next year, but, each are veterans who may wanat to take some control of their destiny.
• I think Jason Varitek should probably retire - and I think he may choose to, but, if he comes back, I hope he honestly expects he can be in radically reduced, different role and still contribute to the team. I have trouble imagining him in this role - as an occasional back-up catcher. My guess is the team and Varitek will agree on some kind of "buy-out" of his option, which would pay him $3 million for 2010.
• Clay Buchholz absolutely - without any question - MUST be in the starting rotation in April. He's fully earned it and if he were left out of the rotation, I would not blame him for asking for a trade.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka's role doesn't seem as "definite" as one might think. First, he had a "forgottten season" in 2009, spending most of it getting in shape before returning for a few starts only to find out that he would not get a start in the ALDS. The team chose to pitch Buhcholz in Game Three and were prepared to pitch Lester on three days rest in Game Four. That's not a vote of confidence for Daisuke. I can imagine Dice-K returning, but I also will not be shocked if the Sox try to trade him.
  

Angels Shut Down Sox Bats Again; Beckett's Best Is Not Enough

Limited Hitting Skills Haunt Sox Vs. Angels

The Red Sox hitters have saved their worst for last. In the first two games of the ALDS vs. the Angels, they've barely gotten wood on the ball.

Angel pitchers John Lackey and Jered Weaver, on consecutive nights, each limited the Red Sox to only four hits. In Game One, the Angels won 5 - 0. In Game Two, it was 4 -1.

This weak hitting against first-rate pitching has plagued the Red Sox all season. When they struggle against quality pitching, they really struggle. Their display in the playoffs has been particularly pitiful given that it counts more.

It's clear the Sox have to make moves in the off-season to shore up their line-up. Their lack of "contact hitters" has hurt them all year, and it's killing them against the Angels. When facing tough pitching, the need for hitters to simply make contact and poke a few singles - however they can - is essential. The Sox have only two or three hitters who are half-decent or better at hitting a variety of pitches for contact: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez. David Ortiz can't make contact well anymore; when he hits, it's usually a double or home run, it seems. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell can be pitched to, especially with breaking pitches. JD Drew is simply too erratic. Jacoby Ellsbury, while improved at making contact, still has a long way to go. Alex Gonzalez is a weak, poor contact hitter.

So, as depressing as it is, the Sox performance vs. the Angels feels like a negative culmination of trends all summer. Of course, they could mount a comeback, but the chances are REMOTE.

Beckett Did Well for Six Innings, then His Problems Re-appeared - BADLY

Josh Beckett did better than I predicted last night - but, he still didn't look right. His fastball was at a lower velocity and he didn't even throw his curveball often. Somehow, relying on guile and experience, he gutted it out and survived six innings, surrendering only three hits.

Frankly, I don't know how Beckett did it. I missed watching the first three innings while WTBS covered the Yankees-Twins game. From what I saw, he had much better control of his fastball than in recent outings. My guess was that he had to keep his velocity down in order to get the kind of good commant necessary to pitch in his sub-par state. I give Beckett credit for finding a way to make the best of a bad situation.

Yet, with the score, amazingly, still tied 1 -1 going into the Angels' bottom half of the 7th, I thought Terry Francona probably should've taken Beckett out of the game, given his recent struggles and the limitations in his approach all night.

Beckett walked the first batter in the 7th, but, it wasn't just any hitter. It was Vladimir Guerrero, who NEVER walks and is the biggest "free swinger" in baseball. This was a BAD sign, and, should've further prompted Francona to prepare to remove Beckett. Instead, Beckett ran the count to 3 -0 on Kendry Morales before he got him to fly out to left field. Howie Kendrick, who pinch ran, stole second. Juan Rivera grounded out, but, then Maicer Izturis singled to center to knock in the go-ahead run, as the Angels now led 2 -1. Now, I figured, it was clearly time to get a relief pitcher in there......but, NO........Francona left Beckett in. Beckett, by now, looked tired and not up to the task. He then hit Mike Napoli with a pitch and got angry that Napoli didn't try to avoid it. Next, Beckett threw a fastball (meatball) down the middle to Aybar, who tripled to center, knocking in two more runs, to make the score 4 - 1. Finally, Billy Wagner came in to relieve Beckett and record the last out in the 7th.

This morning, most media reports on the game stayed away from discussing Beckett. Most mentioned him doing well until the 7th, but, Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, seemed to share some of my perspective when he cited how Beckett pitched with less in his arsenal, and, then, things fell apart for him in an uncharacteristically in the 7th:

McAdam wrote:

"..The Beckett on display in the seventh inning was a poor imitation of the Beckett from 2007. He labored through 28 pitches, showed shaky command (one walk, one hit batter) and was finally done in by a booming triple to center by Erick Aybar, the Angels' No. 9 hitter....."

"...And, there was this: Beckett's fastball lacked its usual bite most of last night, but particularly in the seventh when the Sox' post-season hung in the balance. He couldn't finish off hitters and didn't get many swings and misses.
His fastball, once reliably a mid-90s weapon to go with a knee-buckling curve, seldom topped 91-92 mph last night. At times, he threw fastballs at 89 mph a tick above average....

Then, McAdam recounted how Beckett had relied on guts to pitch in the 2008 playoffs, but given up 14 runs in 14 innings without making excuses.

"Is Beckett pitching hurt again this fall? That may be a matter of semantics....McAdam continued, before reporting Beckett's denial, last Thursday, of any physical problems.

It's hard to know exactly how Beckett's condition impacted Game Two, or, beyond that, the team's preparation for the playoffs. If the Sox comeback and force a Game 5, there is a chance Beckett may pitch again.
Even beyond the 2009 playoffs, however, it seems the Red Sox, from this point on, should reconsider how they monitor Beckett's pitching in future years to prevent physical problems from emerging again right before the playoffs.

Sox Go Into Critical Game Two With Beckett Off His Game

Josh Beckett and the Red Sox are still maintaining that there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett as he prepares to start in tonight's all-important Game Two of the ALDS against the Angels.
The Sox lost Game One last night, and, if they lose tonight, they'd face an incredibly difficult task of winning three in a row with Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka slated for Games 3 and 4.

"There's no issues physically at all," Beckett told the Boston Globe in Amalie Benjamin's article from Anaheim in the Oct. 9th edition.

Beckett had back spasms before his second-to-last start of the season and received three cortisone injections in his back before his last start, when he was pitched quite poorly for part of the game and a bit better in his last few innings.
After pitching superbly for a lengthy stretch earlier in the season, Beckett suddenly became less and less effective in August and September. Both his fastball and curve were not as effective as the season winded down, and, his fastball command got worse over time. His starts raised questions until, finally - when the Sox discussed Beckett's back problems, it appeared we had the explanation for at least some of his struggles. Yet, even after the cortisone shots, Beckett still didn't look right.
In any event, the Red Sox and Beckett have claimed he's fine now. The Sox organization, in essence, is claiming that a large part of Beckett's pitching problems has been due to flaws in his pitching mechanics, or, issues unrelated to health or fatigue.
I sense the explanation given by Beckett and the Red Sox is neither complete or accurate. I think Beckett's health and condition might take on more significance after tonight's game is over.
I've witnessed what everyone has: That Beckett has not been himself at all for nearly two months. My own belief is that he has a tired arm and that's why he's been unable to throw his fastball with the normal zip or location. He has a history of pitching better with a bit more rest, in general.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Beckett is able to overcome his physical limitations tonight. I'll be amazed if he makes it to the seventh inning tonight, or, even, if he pitches a very good six innings. I hope I'm wrong.
I want to illustrate my point by sharing an exchange I had today - when I submitted a question to Boston Globe baseball reporter Adam Kilgore during Kilgore's a public "chat" with readers no the Globe's online site, Boston.com
I submitted a short question, like many fans, and Kilgore posted a brief reply during the "chat" - featured on Boston.com's website.

I wrote:

"Adam, I don't understand why you and other Boston baseball writers are not acknowledging the likelihood that Beckett is suffering from arm fatigue. He's pitched sub-par for nearly two months and signs suggest he does wear down at end of seasons."

Adam Kilgore replied to me, during the "chat session:

"Trust me, myself and other baseball writers have asked the right people about Beckett's issues and they've all said no, any issues are mechanical. If I started writing what you want me to, I'd be making it up. Also, for the record, over the past two months, Beckett is 5-2 with a 4.60 ERA and a .265 average against.

There it is: If Kilgore's characterization is true, it makes the incongruence between Beckett's performances and the Red Sox' explanation even more mysterious.

I recall we went through a somewhat similar circumstance last year. Beckett was suffering from an oblique injury heading into the 2008 playoffs, and, struggled badly in a few starts, but the team kept maintaining that he'd somehow be able to perform. As time passed, I wondered why he was even pitching. He was in bad shape - a shell of himself.

I hope Beckett pitches a gem tonight. If he does, all signs suggest it'll be a tremendous reversal of difficulties related to arm fatigue or an unknown injury that've hindered him for nearly two months. The facts and the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Could Beckett Hurt the Sox in Playoffs Again?

The signs look bad for Josh Beckett's potential to shine in the playoffs. In his last, regular-season start on Saturday, Beckett could have reassured Red Sox Nation by simply throwing his fastball with his usual sharp command. Instead, Beckett could not locate his fastball AT ALL in the first few innings. He was BAD. If he'd been pitching against the Yankees, he might've been knocked out the game, but, because it was the Indians, he wiggled his way out of things without more damage. Yet, for Beckett, you have to wonder when he's going to get his fastball command back. He's been pitching in sub-par fashion for nearly two months now -- with some outings far worse than others, but none at the high calibre of the great stretch he had earlier in the summer.
Beckett improved somewhat in his last couple of innings, but, overall, it was a mediocre outing.

It's impossible to know what's going on with Beckett and the mystery is heightened by his "John Wayne" tendencies when it comes to not admitting when he's hurt. My own guess, for a while now, is that Beckett has been tired in recent weeks -- that his arm is fatgued and that he should have been rested. Evidence suggested that. Beckett has never thrown as many innings as he has this season, and, he always pitches better when on 5 days rest rather than 4 -- and there are more facts that back up this theory. In any event, now, we all have to just hope that another five days gives Beckett a little extra strength to pitch more like his old self in Game Two vs the Angels. I don't think he's going to be able to get back to his old form, however. I think he's really tired, and, probably would benefit from shutting it down for the season now.

I hope I'm wrong. In other developments: Buchholz pitched his second lousy game in a row today - the last day of the season, so, he, too, is cause for worry. Who knows if he can stay poised on the mound in Game 3, especially after he runs into a jam? He's been better about losing his poise in recent weeks, but, his most recent two starts make you wonder if playoff regression is possible.

All in all, I just don't think this is the Red Sox year - and I think the Angels will in. Before, I guessed in five games, but, my revision now is that it could be in any combination -- I just think the Angels's superiority will guide them to beating the Sox this time.

Denial Dominates Wait for the ALDS

God, I can't take it anymore. Every day, I hear sports radio talk show hosts and Boston baseball writers talk about the 2009 Red Sox in inflated terms. Everyone here is predicting an easy win for the Red Sox when they face the Angels in the first round of the playoffs next week.
I doubt I'll hear a single sportswriter pick the Angels before the series next week.

Why? Well, that's what's amazing: Nobody offers good reasons, when, in fact, one can make just as strong a case for the Angels winning. The Angels, like the Sox, are one of the elite teams in baseball, but, many Sox fans disregard the strength of the 2009 Angels' hitting lineup, including, for example, Torre Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales and Chone Figgins, who is always stealing bases and distracting pitchers. At one point this season, I think almost the entire Angels' lineup was hitting over .300.

The Angels took the season series with the Red Sox 5 -4 in games. The Angels pitching rotation is back to normal with John Lackey and Ervin Santana over injuries. The Angels' speed on the bases is likely to cause big trouble for Sox pitchers and catchers, who have proven to be among the worst in baseball at preventing stolen bases.


Despite all this, baseball writers and fans have repeated the flawed, thoughtless argument that because the Red Sox have beaten the Angels in the ALDS playoffs three times in recent years, they simply have the Angels' number. Of course, each season, the two teams have had very different hitting lineups and pitchers, but, that doesn't stop the silly home bias.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox go into the playoffs with major question marks. The biggest is the status of Josh Beckett, who hasn't pitched in top form for the better part of two months. He recently missed a start due to back spasms that were serious enough to prompt the team to give him cortisone shots to improve his condition. For Beckett to succeed against the Angels, and, particularly, the Yankees, he must be at the top of his game. On the plus side, Jon Lester seemed fine tonight - in his first start after being hit in the knee last week - and got his 15th win.
While Clay Buchholz has pitched superbly for a number of starts, his most recent bad outing was a reminder that he's not a sure thing in his first playoff start. Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not repeat his last terrific start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Hideki Okajima has pitched poorly in recent weeks and who knows if he'll snap out of that funk? Manny Delcarmen has been so bad lately that he really shouldn't be used at all. Daniel Bard has given up loud hits lately. Ramon Ramirez has been erratic.
Other players are peaking at the right time. Jonathan Papelbon looked sharp tonight and has thrown more consistently - with better location - for about a month now. Jason Bay has been belting the ball lately. Big Papi has hit more doubles and homer runs lately. Victor Martinez has hit well during his entire time with the team.

In the end, I feel it's harder to predict the performance of this 09 edition of the Sox than other teams in the past decade. If I have to guess who will win the ADLS now, I'd probably pick the Angels in 5.

Red Sox, Despite Denial of Media and Fans, Are Overmatched by Yankees - Period

I cannot understand why so many Red Sox fans are in denial about the limitations of this team - when compared directly to the 2009 New York Yankees. I see the Red Sox as one of the better teams in baseball, but, they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to the Yankees right now. Not even close.

All one has to do is watch the teams' head-to-head games. It's not a fluke that the Yanks have won nine of the last ten games vs. the Red Sox. They're simply much better. Earlier in the year, when the Sox won eight in a row vs. the Yanks, that Yankee team was more flawed and missing A-Rod for a chunk of that period. Now, it's painful to watch these old rivals play because the dynamic - instead of being close and competitive and suspenseful - has evolved into a mismatch over the past few months. The Yanks, with Phil Hughes excelling as their setup man and C.C. Sabathia being an incredibly consistent ACE for most of the year and seven or eight players hitting 20 homes runs or more - and on - and on, have the best team in all of baseball - and, clearly the big favorites to win the World Series.

So, why do fans and writers around Boston persist in a state of mass denial about the mismatch between the Yanks and the Sox? Why do they come up with arguments and theories that amount to poppycock about how the Sox pitchers are SO, SO much better than the Yankee pitchers even though, in recent series, most of the Yankee pitchers have simply outperformed our pitchers? Why do they pretend not to see the enormous gap in talent between the Yankee hitters and the Red Sox hitters? The Yankee lineup can consistently score runs against good pitchers while the Red Sox have often been shut down by an array of "average" pitchers - including rookies - this year. The baseball writers and fans here have held on to this parochial, narrow-minded, naieve view that the Sox are equal to the Yanks - even if the stats and what one sees on the field shows that is false.
I wish all this were not so. I hate the Yankees and I'm sick of everything about them, including all the credit they get for simply having an All-Star team that plays like All-Stars --- but, this year, it's going to take some outstanding pitching by some team to stop this Yankee juggernaut. Maybe the Angels could do it with pitching, hitting and a lot of steals. Maybe the Phillies could get pitching and have hitting that keeps them close enough to win.

The only way the Red Sox have a chance vs. the Yanks - if they face them in the ACLS again - is with near-perferct pitching from Jon Lester and Josh Beckett - with one great game from Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka mixed in. However, Beckett, unfortunately, has not been in top form for the past month and a half. His mechanics got messed up (or he has secret injury)and he's much more hittable. Meanwhile, after a line drive hit Lester in the knee on Friday, Sept. 25th, he may be impacted negatively somehow by the opening of the playoffs, although the signs are good. The point is the Yankees' hitting line-up is historically top-notch. It is even more of a powerhouse than some of the other All-Star lineups the Bombers have fielded in recent years!
This means there is almost no margin of error when you play the Yankees, who, uncoincidentally, are about to win their 100th game any day now.
The Red Sox, by contrast, has often featured Jason Varitek, who's batting about .140 for the second half. And virtually all of our hitters - except Victor Martinez - are less consistent and more streaky than the Yanks. I won't go on illustrating it Any observer cannot deny the Yankees' hitting superiority. The Yanks, literally, do not have one weak hitter in their lineup!
What's amazing is how so many sportswriters and fans go to extraordinary lengths to explain how the two teams are virutally "equal" and to claim our pitching is so much better and our bullpen is better -- blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. C.C. Sabathia is the only ace who overwhelmingly shut down the other team twice in a row - which is what he just did by allowing only one hit today over seven innings after coming close to that domination in his previous win vs. the Sox. Beckett, meanwhile, has been erratic against the Yanks. Lester has been good, but, before he got hit by the line drive Friday night, and had half-decent stuff, he was still getting knocked around. The Yankees can win games multiple ways - as they did in the first two games of the current series against the Red Sox. The won the first 9 - 5 with hitting and good pitching and then today, they won with a masterpiece by Sabathia and not as much clutch hitting, 3-0.
I want the Red Sox to beat the Angels in the ADLS, but, while I'm watching, I know I'll have sort of ambivalent feelings. Why? I'll feel that the Angels have a better chance to beat the Yankees, who they did well against again in 2009, than the Red Sox will. I'm tired of watching an overmatched edition of the Yankees beat up on the Sox. It feels like going back in time to the late 1990s.
I just don't get why so many baseball writers and fans can call the Red Sox what they are against the Yankees: Big Underdogs. There's nothing wrong with being Underdogs. I'll root for them against the Angels - as underdogs against them too. And telling the truth about your team can be more therapeutic than living in fantasyland.

Sox Seem Focused on Winning --at the Right Time

The Red Sox kept playing good, smart baseball as they swept the Orioles this weekend.
Yes, the Orioles stink, but, the Sox could have easily suffered a letdown coming into Camden Yards after the Angels series. Instead, the Red Sox seem to be playing with a bit more intensity and focus in recent days. The Sox finished with a 16 - 2 season record vs the Orioles.

Consider that in all three Orioles games, the Red Sox starters did not have their best stuff, but the team still did what they had to to win. On Friday night, Clay Buchholz showed that he can win a gam without being on his "A" game; in fact, Buchholz hasn't even experienced many games like that in his young career. His changeup, his "out" pitch, wasn't quite as sharp nor were his other pitches, but he kept his cool and pitched a solid six innings, giving the team a chance to win. On Saturday night, Jon Lester was definitely a bit off his game, (more than Buchholz was) ; as he gave up ten hits, he still limited the Orioles to only a few runs.
Then, today, though I didn't see it, apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn't as sharp as he was last week, but, he started well - striking out the side in the 1st - and kept things in check.

In one sequence I watched in Saturday's game, the Sox played some great "small ball." It started with Dustin Pedroia pushing the count full before getting a single; then Victor Martinez reached the bat way out way outside of the strike zone in order to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield in order to advance Pedroia. Then, Ortiz hit his second double of the night. Youkilis hit a high curve ball to knock in a run, and then, Lowell hit a clutch single to knock in another run. What was impressive was the quality of the at-bats; the hitters were working the count, really trying to make contact -- something that often has NOT happened this season.

Then, Billy Wagner came in, and, despite having trouble with his curve ball, according to Dennis Eckersley (I couldn't notice it as much) and pitched another scoreless inning. Wagner has been stellar so far.

Overall, it just seems the Red Sox are a much better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, and the other additions on the roster since Sept. 1st. Victor is the key.

Who knows? Maybe the Yankees will lose a few games on the West Coast this week while the Red Sox win - and, the Sox can enter their last series against the Yanks only three games out rather than six. (The Mariners are beating the Yankees 7-0 at the moment) Then, they can sweep the Yanks at Yankee Stadium and tie for the Division.....

OK, I just felt like expressing that fantasy......I do NOT think that will happen. I'll try to be content that the Sox are playing good ball as they head into the playoffs.

Red Sox Show Some Strength Against the Angels

The Red Sox have looked like a better team recently, particularly in their recent series just completed tonight against the Angels. (Of course, the Rangers have virtually collapsed over the past week, making things a lot easier for the Sox in the wild card race).
I still don't share the sentiments of so many Boston media and fans who seem to feel the Sox will have such a big advantage against the Angels, who they'd likely meet in the first round of the playoffs. To me, it's ridicolous that so many people point to the Red Sox success in recent years vs. the Angels in the playoffs as the main "reason" they'd beat the 2009 Angels. Every year is different - and this year's Angel team is argubly more talented than the Red Sox. They have a better hitting lineup, for sure. Before this series, I thought the Angels would have a good-sized advantage against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Now, after seeing the two teams square off, I still give the Angels the edge, but, I have a bit more hope for the Sox.

Overall, the Sox Are Stronger
The most important thing: They got Daisuke Matsuzaka back as a starter Tuesday night. He looked great - and, could make a critical contribution down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Overall, I just feel it meant more for the Sox to win a series against one of the best teams in baseball. (I'm not counting their early 8-0 streak vs. the Yanks, who had a few players out, including A-Rod). The Sox won two out of three, defeating Angels' ace John Lackey, and, then, won a game started by another Angels stud pitcher, Joe Saunders.
There were all kinds of reasons to doubt Dice-K would make a quality start Tuesday. Dice-K has missed most of the season. He left the team due to fatigue in his shoulder, and, later the team indicated that he needed to get in shape, and, basically, have a whole new version of "spring training." Matsuzaka had pitched only a few rehab starts in the minor leagues, and he had not performed that convincingly.
Well, you could see that Matsuzaka was "different" from the outset because his fastball was moving again. In fact, I don't think I've seen his fastball have that much zip - or, late life, on it since the 2007 season. He blew the ball by a few hitters with his heater at about 92 or 93 mph - but, with the "giddy-up," it seemed like the fastball was at 95.
Dice-K's control was better than usual. He seemed determined to pound the strike zone more and he suceeded. Even in his remarks after the game, Matsuzaka gave one a sense that he's on a mission to do well for the team after he feels he missed so much time.
The Sox hitting has been terrific during this homestand at Fenway - as it usually is. David Ortiz still looks inconsistent at the plate. He's not getting around on some fastballs and is too easily fooled by breaking pitches more often than he used to be; but, of course, he had these problems early in the season. The difference is that now, he'll have a few good games before sub-par games - and hit home runs and doubles in those.
The Sox have set up their bullpen so that, often, in winning games, they have Wagner in the 7th, Bard in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th. Bard has been more "mortal" in recent weeks, and given up some hits on occasion. Papelbon has been sharper and seemed to find some strength inexplicably in the past couple of weeks.
The one large cloud that had been hanging over the team was whether Beckett could get back to full strength. He had a few bad starts and I - like others - wondered if he needed some rest. His fastball lacked zip and he was frequently leaving it in the strike zone and his curve ball had lacked any good "bite" to it and was getting knocked around.
Michael Felger of the new "Sports Hub," radio show on 98.5 FM, has been commenting repeatedly that evidence in recent seasons demonstrates that Beckett tends to pitch a bit worse and get more vulnerable toward the end of the season -- when his season pitch count starts climbing. I totally agree with Felger. I thought it was stupid that Francona let Beckett go out to pitch the 8th inning tonight.
Felger has cited stats that show, convincingly, that when Beckett has gotten extra rest - in one of more of the past few seasons - the rest has helped him pitch better, including in the 2007 championship season.
Tonight, Beckett looked very good, but, he still was not at his very best. Angel batters hit a couple of his curves easily and his fastball, though decent all night, was a tiny bit lower in velocity -- often at about 93 mph when, in many outings this season, the speed has often been closer to 95 or 96 mph.
For the Sox to beat the Angels in the playoffs, Beckett, Ortiz and their teammates will have to play at their best in order to win. The Red Sox are the underdogs.

Sox Struggle to Break from Mediocrity - Before it's Too Late

The 2009 season all seems to rest on whether Josh Beckett can regain his top form.
If he can, again, pitch at his best, the Red Sox have a chance to win games in the playoffs.
If he remains "limited" - whether due to problems in his pitching mechanics, fatigue or an unknown injury, most agree the Sox will go nowhere.
As for me, I agree on the need for Beckett's "A game," but, I strongly doubt the Sox will advance far in the playoffs even with that. Why? Their hitting is too weak against good pitching, and, if they make the playoffs, they'll face only opposing teams' best pitchers.

I agreed with a point made this week by Tony Massarotti on his new radio show: This 2009 Sox team has not proven they can perform well against good teams.
All you have to do is look up the Red Sox record vs. other teams with winning records in the American League, and, you'll find the discouraging results. Yes, the Red Sox still have a 9-6 edge against the Yankees with three games left between the teams, but, I know no fan who believes the current Sox are as good as the current Yanks. The Sox ran up their 8-0 initial lead in that series when the Yanks were dealing with injuries and other issues. Now, the Yanks are by far, the scariest team in baseball, heading toward 100 plus wins and with seven of their nine starting players already with at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter needs three to make that eight players. So, I think we can agree the Sox are not as good as the Yanks.
The Rays lead 9 - 6 in games vs the Sox with three games left. The Angels are 4 -2 vs the Sox with a three-game series coming up. The Rangers - their primary wild card opponent now - are 7 - 2 vs the Sox in 2009. The Mariners are 4 - 2 vs. the Sox. The Twins are 4-2 vs the Sox.
The only real exception is that the Red Sox went 6-1 vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers deteriorated into a bad team, so, that feat means little. The Red Sox couldn't manage more than a 4-4 split against the White Sox, who are a game below 500 as of Sept. 10th.

Now, yes, with Jon Lester pitching well and, possibly, a sharper Beckett, the Sox might surprise by advancing in the playoffs. They're a better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and an expanded roster. However, their hitting has often been average of below average against either teams' "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers OR many young pitchers they had never faced before.
The team desparately needs one consistent slugger in its lineup. (Manny and the Big Papi of years past are gone) Several of its decent hitters - whether Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or Jason Bay - have been inconsistent with men on base. JD Drew has performed poorly most of the year, until the past month or so. Jacoby Ellsbury has hit his peak recently, but will he continue that against top-notch pitchers in the playoffs.

I'm trying to keep hope alive, but, I know one thing: This Red Sox team will have to morph into a better, different team in order to do well in the playoffs -- if it makes the playoffs.

Can the Red Sox Peak at Just the Right Time?

At the end of many baseball seasons, the teams that are playing their best sometime in the last four or six weeks often keep the momentum going right into the playoffs and give themselves a chance to win it all.
Are the 2009 Red Sox one of those teams?
They haven't shown many signs of "getting on a hot streak" during this strange season. In fact, when one looks back, how often were the different components of the team -- starting pitchers, bullpen, hitters -- all performing well together? I cannot think of one time, really. On the contrary, I recall pitchers and hitters all going through ups and downs most of the year.
Very few players have been steady all year and it makes it hard to predict what will happen in September or beyond. One truth: The team has more strengths now - more good players on the roster - than at any other point. I say that mainly because of the additions of Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez and the several new players who joined the team today when the roster expanded.
The "Good, but not Great" Problem on the Sox
The Red Sox have only a few players who I'd classify as "great" right now. Josh Beckett has pitched great for much of the year, but, started slowly, and, unfortunately, is now in a mysterious slump that's hopefully related to mechanics rather than an injury. I think Jon Lester is a great pitcher, but he's had enough bumps in the road to prevent a "great" record. Kevin Youkilis, to me, barely qualifies as a "great" hitter. I'd say he's "very good." Jason Bay has been "very good," but, his slump was too long and his inability to hit breaking pitches prevents him from being "great." Jonathan Papelbon doesn't quite seem "great" anymore, but he's still a damned good closer.
Without reviewing all the players, my point is that it's hard for a team to win the World Series without a few big stars -- guys playing like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were a few years ago. Or, guys like Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes or Mariano Rivera for the Yankees. Or, on the Rays: Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena or Matt Garza.
The question is whether a bunch of those "good" Sox players will rise to the occasion in September and/or the playoffs?
A player who is trending in the right direction, for example is Jacoby Ellsbury. In recent weeks, he has suddenly been hitting consistently and more comfortable and confident at the plate. (He made an enormous contribution to winning this game tonight vs the Rays!)
A player I've lost confidence in is Ramon Ramirez, who seems to give up hits during every outing and has lost his capacity to locate the ball where he wants -- as he did earlier in the season.
If you go through the lineup, there are "qualifiers" attached to so many players. Ortiz has hit better lately, but, he still seems less able to hit off-speed or breaking pitches as well as in the past. Dustin Pedroia has been erratic with men on base for much of the year. J.D. Drew, who has had a BAD year, has hit much better the past few weeks. With the pitchers, Bard started out off the charts, but has looked more mortal in recent weeks. Hideki Okajima has been very good most of the year, but more erratic in the second half. He just came into a 7 -2 game vs. the Rays and allowed five Rays in a row to reach base.
The Sox Also Would Need Luck to Advance In the Playoffs
On sports radio, all the callers and hosts keep saying that because the Red Sox have Beckett and Lester, they'll be tough for any team to beat in the playoffs. I guess I don't agree. I'd say Beckett and Lester can give the team a good chance, but the "average" or inconsistent nature of their hitting line-up - particularly against good pitchers - makes them more beatable. Their bullpen is good, but seems a bit more vulnerable with Okajima, and, especially Ramirez not as consistent. It sounds funny, but I think Billy Wagner could be a big factor. He has looked fantastic in his two outings - including tonight against the Rays - and his experience could prove invaluable in the playoffs.
Of course, just while I'm expressing these doubts, Papelbon has gotten one of his best saves of the season -- his first two-inning, six-out save -- and this at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla, where the Sox usually stink. Who knows with this team?

Sox Now In Rest of Pack Chasing the Mighty Yankees

The Yankees now sure as hell look like the The Team to Win it All in 2009.

It has been painful to watch the Yanks beat up on the Sox the past two series. Suddenly, the rivalry is more of the familiar mismatch that it used to be in the late 90s, it appears. I know this Sox team is better than the team that lost to the Yanks in 1999, but, there is the same old "uphill" feeling of watching the Sox try to struggle to get or hold a lead in these games.
The surprise for me, like many fans, has been the sharp improvement in the Yankees' pitching since the start of the year. C.C. Sabathia is pitching like he did in Cleveland now. (I still have doubts about whether he'll perform this well all through the playoffs) Pettite has done better than I expected. And, despite AJ Burnett's problems with the Sox, he's pitched well most of the season.

This Yankee team has the same traits as other recent Yankee lineups in terms of hitting, but, they're perhaps a bit better than a few other Yankee teams since 2001. First, the addition of Mark Teixeira alone has bolstered the team. Cano, who, amazingly bats 7th on occasion, has been the stud hitter he can be ALL season this year. Jeter, defying the aging process, is actually hitting better this year. Matsui, suddenly looks like he went back five years in time and is belting the ball. (How did he do that?) And on and on and on.

The only way for any team - whether in the American or National League - to defeat this loaded, dangerous hitting Yankee team is with stellar pitching. I mean two or more starters - like Schilling and Johnson did in 2001 - shutting down the Yankee offense. (Or, the way the Tigers did it a few years ago, with Rogers, Verlander and Bonderman) Now, yes, the Red Sox are among a very small group of teams that have a couple of stud pitchers who one can imagine pulling this off in Beckett and Lester. However, as we saw in Sunday night's game, even Beckett has to be "on" to limit the Yankee hitters; without a good curve ball, Beckett proved to be very hittable for the fastball-loving Bombers.

So, all teams are chasing the Yanks and must pitch brilliantly in the playoffs to stop them. Having said that, the Red Sox certainly have a decent chance to win the wild card, but, the Rays and Rangers have nearly the same chance, in my view. (I think the Rays have about an equal chance to the Sox because of their talent in pitching and hitting is at or even better than the Sox.)

Why Did Sox Stay with Penny & Smoltz So Long?

I think this question will linger into the winter if the Sox fail to advance in the playoffs.
First, I really believe Brad Penny displayed his mediocrity and limited talents very early on in this 2009 season and he should have been replaced in the rotation a lot sooner. Penny throws mostly fastballs for the entire game - which, in itself, is an indictment of his capacity as a pitcher. The vast majority of pitchers in the American and National League do not throw ONLY A FASTBALL for their entire outing in the same fashion that Penny has. So, as I watched Penny - outing after outing - get hit harder and harder as the game progressed and the opposing hitters got more familiar with his fastball - I wondered: "Why is Sox management putting this guy out there when he has nothing more in his aresenal?"
Penny somehow pitched some half-decent games earlier, but, his outings never lasted more than six innings and he got terrific run support and that distorted how he was actually doing.
As the season progressed, and the "book" was out on Penny among AL teams AND he fell into his decline after the All-Star break, it was painfully obvious that he didn't belong in the rotation. The Sox were VERY slow in removing him, waiting until after his horrible outing last Friday night against the Bombers - which was a hopeless effort. He might as well have been throwing beachballs to the Pinstripers, who just waited on his "meatball" fastballs.
So, if one accepts that Penny stayed in the rotation too long AND, also, that Smoltz was allowed to stay in there way too long, well, that adds up to A LOT of losses for this 2009 Sox team.
Who was responsible for that? Theo Epstein, more than anyone, and, secondly, Terry Francona, who as manager, should have not agreed to put these pitchers out there - even if Theo was influencing the moves.
There is another question that has not been raised about Penny & Smoltz's roles and that is: Why didn't the Sox have more minor-league pitchers who they could have brought up, and, at least TRIED inserting, even if temporarily, in these starting spots? The Red Sox, supposedly, have a deep minor-league system, but, if they felt there were more good young arms to tap, one assumes they would have. Yet, the Red Sox have, on occasion, been too conservative and reluctant about bringing minor-league pitchers up. I'd argue that Clay Buchholz should have been called up after Penny had pitched five or six times and shown his limitations.

David Ortiz, Argubly, May Be One of the Only Players to Lead Sox Into Playoffs

Big Papi is hitting very well again and it seems likely he's got extra motivation to prove his critics wrong after the steroid controversy swirling around him. Ortiz said he was careless with supplements in the past (in 2003, he's implied) but denies ever using steroids. Who knows?
All I know is Ortiz looks more focused at the plate in the past ten days than I've seen him look all season. When he hit his home run off Burnett Saturday, it was a fastball away that he drove into the Monster seats, but, what impressed me was how he waited on that pitch until the ball got closer to his bat. Big Papi has been waiting for the ball to get further into the strike zone, allowing himself that extra split second to make better contact. Ortiz used to hit like this all the time a few years ago, but, this year - and perhaps last year, with his bad wrist - he began "committing" on his swing a tiny bit earlier, making it harder to avoid hitting popups or striking out on breaking pitches.
If, in fact, Ortiz is "on a mission," to prove himself over the weeks ahead, it's possible he could keep hitting home runs and doubles the way he used to - and, in the process, lead the team to some key wins as they compete with the Rays and Rangers for a wild card spot.

Buchholz, Wakefield, Tazawa Likely to Play Key Roles

If the Sox are to make it, they'll need Buchholz to perform steadily as a starter. He's looked very good lately, but, no one knows if he can keep lasting a good six or seven innings in his starts. Tim Wakefield's contribution remains uncertain, depending on the health of his calf. If he can't field his position, he may suddenly have to be replaced - again. Tazawa may wind up in the role formerly occupied by Justin Masterson as a "long man" out of the bullpen, or, as a spot starter.

JD Drew's Awful Season

Drew has been disappointing during most of his time on the Red Sox, but, this year, in particular, his poor hitting has really hurt the team, which has desparatedly needed offense at times, especially with men on base. Drew has continued in his bad habits of taking way too many pitches - particularly with men on base and simply failing to get hits despite his natural talents.

Relief Pitchers Continue to be More Erratic

Rookie Daniel Bard has run into a little rough patch. He's given up some big home runs - first in that series against the Yankees and another in another series. In any event, Bard has to stop leaving his fastball up in the strike zone. He has to keep it on the corners more.
Meanwhile, Ramon Ramirez continues to struggle. What is his problem? No one has identified it, but, he is simply not reliable - as he was during the first half.

Can the Collapsing Sox Make the Playoffs?

The 2009 Red Sox are falling downhill fast and everyone is trying to figure out how and why it's happening so quickly. Will this team get its act together and still make the playoffs?
Let's analyze the collapse first. I'll discuss only two factors that I think loom large:

1. Ortiz & Ramirez Are Gone -- and Have Never Been Replaced
The Red Sox lost Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of last season, and they've still not replaced what those two mega-stars brought to the table. I say "lost David Ortiz" because I'm referring to the Ortiz of old -- before his wrist injury and other issues caused his skills to decline - and, he's never been the same. He's still fairly good at times - and I think he may finish this 2009 season half-decently, but, he's not even close to the hitter he was two or three years ago, when he resembled Barry Bonds at the plate. (in Bonds' hitting skill) However, I find baseball writers and talk show blowhards amazingly unable to acknowledge this LARGE reality about the IMPACT of the absence of the "old" Ortiz and the multi-talented Ramirez.
Instead, the baseball "pack" of writers keep trying to assess how a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Green and Varitek could have unraveled. Well, the names alone don't even suggest much strength, power, consistency or clutch hitting, do they? If you insert Ramirez and Ortiz - the 2004 variety - it gets instantly A LOT better, huh? I've discussed this lineup in other posts, but, none of these players can CARRY a team for any length of time. Youkilis and Pedroia, when hitting well together, can be damned good and "stand out," but, this year, even they have been a bit erratic - and, neither has the stature of the old Ortiz or Ramirez - period.
So, I'm arguing that Theo Epstein and company don't want any of us to focus on the incredible LOSS this team has absorbed since the middle of 2008, when Manny was traded. Without Manny - particularly this year - one often felt the line-up's vulnerability when, for instance, the team faced a new, young pitcher it had never seen. Often, this line-up has been silenced on those days, which are just the kind of games when Manny, singlehandedly, used to hit a home run and a double to knock in enough runs and, singlehandedly, get a win for the team.
It seems the superior gifts Manny brought have been forgotten by the pack of sports media, who spout the same B.S. in unison. (Watch: They're about to all descend on Drew now because Francona, in a rare moment, made a negative remark about Drew.)
Manny's absence helped keep the Sox from knocking off the Rays and winning it all in 2008, and, this year, with Ortiz struggling so long and others in sub-par seasons, his absence has hurt the lineup much more.

Ortiz and Ramirez were a modern-day Gehrig and Ruth - during their good run in Boston from 2003 - 2007. Yes, that's how good they were. This duo - by far more than any other players - brought two championships to the Red Sox. So, suddenly, Manny is gone and Ortiz has been a shadow of himself and the sportswriters are lamely searching for the explanation that, in many ways, is right in front of them. Why hasn't anyone asked Theo about this void and the team's failure to fill it? Seems after the Sox couldn't get Mark Texeira, they threw in the towel, in a way.

2) Theo & Company Have Badly Over-rated their Veteran Talent and Stayed with it
This is there for all to see. Theo, if pushed, would admit that he was WAY OFF in his projections on how JD Drew would perform here. To call Drew a "disappointment" is an incredible understatement. If it weren't for his salary, would he be in the starting lineup? I don't think so. He sure as hell wouldn't start for the Yankees. Drew hit the big slam in 07 to save the Sox' against the Indians in the playoffs and I'll always be grateful - but, it was a $14 million grand slam.
Theo has failed to get the team a very good shortstop - who can also hit - during most of his tenure. This has been covered. Lugo, Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have not been able to provide enough for different reasons, including injuries - though Green has made a good effort. Bay is good - not great (as the baseball writers often project) but he cannot hit breaking pitches and this keeps him from excelling and coming through in many moments with men on base. Lowell is good - not great - but also struggles with breaking pitches. At least Lowell has made adjustments and tried new approaches - like choking up when he has two strikes on him. Ellsbury, again, is good - but not great. He's had an unusually good stint of hitting lately, but he still has a poor swing and doesn't follow through enough with the bat and watch the ball long enough. Varitek's situation has been well-covered, but, now, with the season on the line, it's time for him to catch only Beckett and Lester at the most. His time is ending now and I think the team should probably not bring him back next year. He simply cannot hit for enough of the long season to provide at least some much-needed offense.
A look at the pitching reveals more misjudgments by Epstein for 09 - mainly in his sticking with John Smoltz and Brad Penny for so long. After Smoltz had appeared three times, it was obvious he didn't have it -- His remaining starts and losses hurt the team and are Epstein's responsibility. Penny has been over-rated for much of the year. He displayed his flaws and limitations early on, but the team stuck with him and now, they're paying the price as Penny deteriorates - as he apparently has in previous seasons. He should no longer be in the starting rotation - period. He throws only fastballs and any good professional hitters start to belt the ball off him by the second time around. His bad appearances - from early June on - are all on Epstein, if you ask me. I'd rather try Bowden or other young arms from the Sox minor-league system -- even if one or more of these pitchers needed time to get better. With Penny, you know what he cannot bring you. A younger pitcher MIGHT be better.
Rocco Baldelli was probably never going to provide sufficient hitting as a utility player.
Overall, I guess I'm sick and tired of hearing Francona or anyone associated with the Red Sox talk about what a good hitting lineup this team has. We've seen WAY TOO MANY games in 2009 when this team has been unable to do a thing against average pitchers. It is NOT an impressive line-up compared to many other teams - whether the Yanks, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies and more. The bottom half of the lineup has been poor since sometime in 2008.
One other thing: I wonder sometimes if the coaching is aggressive enough with certain players who make the same mistakes over and over. For example, Ramon Ramirez, who starred for the first couple of months of 2009, has not pitched well for about two months. He keeps leaving pitches up - and in the strike zone - and he keeps getting hit. I assume John Farrell talks to him - and I think Farrell is about the best pitching coach we've had for years, but, sometimes, I wonder if certain players require more or different coaching. Can't Ellsbury be taught to take more pitches and draw more walks for instance? Can't someone tell Drew to swing at more borderline pitches?

Can the Sox Make the Playoffs?
Maybe, maybe not. If I had to predict tonight, I'd say they're more likely to fall just short at the end of September. I think the Rays will likely finish ahead of them in the wild card, and, perhaps the Rangers too. Unfortunately, even if the Sox make the playoffs, I don't see how this Sox team can go far in the playoffs. It's not enough to have Beckett and Lester. You have to score a few runs - and, this team has been unable to do that.
Certain players, suddenly, have to play better. That's possible, but, it'll be tough in all the games when the Sox play tough teams. In the past month or more, the Sox have performed horribly against teams with winning records.
Victor Martinez probably is one of the only hopes -- I don't think it's fair to expect so much of him, a newcomer, but he has more talent than many others in that lineup and he might provide a spark. Plus, Ortiz has to perform as well as he did in his good stretch before the All-Star Break. Plus, Wakefield has to return to his form of the first half - and Buchholz or Matsuzaka or someone has to win a few games in the role of 5th starter.

I think the Red Sox are in a major transition now. They have a few veterans who are in their last years --- Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Wakefield. They need a new injection for 2010.

Can Victor Martinez Rescue the Red Sox?

I know one player cannot do it all, but, I feel the acquisition of Victor Martinez was absolutely critical to the Red Sox even having a good chance to make the playoffs and go anywhere. I've been arguing the Sox needed this calibre of hitter for some time. Well, Theo and his team got it done and they deserve credit.
Martinez is off to a great start. He looks better at the plate than most of the other Sox players. He has a good stance - like he's going to uncoil on contact. Plus, he seems to have a good eye and watches the ball ALL the way in better than some of his teammates do.
So, while VMart is a terrific plus, it seems the rest of the team is undergoing a stressful time waiting for David Ortiz to face the media to talk about his past use of steroids. Big Papi has mysteriously waited much longer than anticipated to make any statement. Last Thursday, following a day game in Baltimore, Ortiz said he'd have more to say as soon as he got some questions answered from the MLB Players Association. Let's hope he does this before arriving in New York before Thursday, when the Sox face the Yankees for a four-game series. The fans and media in NY are unlikely to make this an easy weekend for Ortiz.

In the meantime, the pitching - once viewed as the team's steadiest strength - is suddenly showing a number of serious weaknesses.
1) Smoltz - I've given my views on him. If, somehow, he survives more than five innings against the Yankees, I will consider it a minor miracle. I just don't think Smoltz can last at all against all the Yanks' great fastball hitters when, he now has one of the worst, weakest fastballs I've seen in a long time. I predict he will be shelled, and, of course, I hope I'm dead wrong and Smoltz somehow is inpired as hell to pitch well vs. the Yanks what may be one of his last games ever. 2) Buchholz - Well, having seen him in a few starts, it's easier to understand why Theo Epstein was offering Buchholz in possible trades to Toronto and Seattle - and, probably other teams. Buchholz hasn't progressed as much as people thought and perhaps that's why the Sox left him in Pawtucket for the first half: They might have wanted to hide his mediocrity and project an impression that he was better than he is -- so that teams would have interest in him at the trading deadline. Whatever it is, Buchholz seems to have three big problems: 1) His fastaball command is lousy. (Plus his fastball is "straight" and very hittable, making location even more critical). 2) He's not throwing his curve, which, two years ago, was one of his best pitches - along with his top-notch changeup. What's up with his curve? I have no idea and no Boston sportswriters seem to ask these basic questions. 3) He has a MAJOR attitude problem that leads to a lack of confidence on the mound and hurts his focus and performance. Buchholz doesen't even sound confident in his interviews with NESN between games. As others have noted, when anything goes wrong in the game, he seems to over-react and panic somehow, and things get worse quickly. Buchholz needs more work with his confidence or he'll be unable to improve. I hope he's getting the help right now!
3) Penny - I've covered this. He's always been mediocre at best, and, outright BAD in a number of games. The word is he gets worse in the second half of seasons. That's NOT good. I hope he's out of the rotation at some point, but, maybe he'll surprise me. 4) Wakefield - He is now recovering from a new ailment - sciatica that is affecting his left hamstring. Wakefield told reporters that, when he was in Texas with the team recently, he could barely walk. It sounds like it may require additional weeks for him to even try pitching effectively. Even if he recovers fast, Wakefield has broken down the past two years, and, probably should not be counted on heading into the playoffs.
With Matsuzaka trying to regain strength in his shoulder and arm in Florida and potentially unavailable until September, what other pitchers will the Sox be able to call on?
Hopefully, one of their minor-league pitchers will step into the void and do well.

One last point: A few members of the highly-touted bullpen have quietly become unreliable. Tops on my list of worries is Ramon Ramirez, who has been giving up too many during a bad stretch that has now lasted close to six weeks, it seems. What's going on with him? Is he working with John Farrell to address his problems? When he comes in now, he is a different pitcher than earlier in the year. He leaves many pitches that get too much of the plate (and, get hit, mostly) Manny Delcarmen is in one of his inconsistent periods. I've never understood why Delcarmen's curve ball, which has excellent movement, cannot be used more often and with more effectiveness more consistently. Hideki Okajima, while still decent, has given up more hits in the past month or so.
Then, of course, there is Jonathan Papelbon, who, somehow keeps clinging to a record that does not reflect how he's looked on the mound. I keep waiting for him to blow more saves. I won't repeat my rants on this topic, but, Papelbon's fastball is simply not as good as it used to be. It can be excellent at times, and, to his credit, Papelbon seems to save some of his best heaters for big moments when strikeouts are needed to end a threat. However, he used to have "giddy-up" all the time. Now, he doesn't and hitters foul off pitches all the time OR get hits OR draw walks. A few years ago, Papelbon could throw his electric fastball down the middle and hitters usually swung and missed. Now, he struggles with his location in most outings and struggles to throw just enough well-placed fastballs to survive. I give him credit, but, something is wrong with his arm or he wouldn't still feel he HAD to use this "new motion" he refers to. What worries me is whether Papelbon will be able to repeat these "borderline" performances in September or in the playoffs. I will not be shocked if he starts pitching worse in the last weeks of the season. He has grown arm-weary in other seasons at season's end, and, this time, he'll be tiring after not pitching as well as he used to all year.

Sox Brass Must Snap out of Denial & Make Moves

OK. Will someone please explain the logic behind the Red Sox continuing to start John Smoltz when he's demonstrated he cannot pitch well this season?
Today, it was painful to watch John Smoltz, in his 6th start, again pitch so poorly and display the same vulnerabilities. I just watched Oriole slugger Nick Markakis, for the second time, take advantage of a very poorly-placed Smoltz fastball (It was more like a beachball!) and belt it for a home-run. I couldn't believe Smoltz left two fastballs up in the zone to Markakis. That takes some BAD pitching. I've heard pitchers talk endlessly about the importance of "fastball command." Well, Smoltz's fastball now lacks velocity, movement and location. It's terrible. In addition, his breaking pitches quite often have "hung" in the zone and been hit hard.
This is certainly not what Theo Epstein and company hoped for in signing Smoltz, but, that brings me to the main point.
Why are Epstein and the Red Sox so hung up on "giving Smoltz a chance"? Listen, I completely respect Smoltz. I recall him shutting down the Sox with his slider a couple of seasons ago. However, the Sox' apparent decision to keep putting him out there with the blind hope (or, fantasy) that somehow, he'll magically recapture his skills seems not only misguided, but outright damaging to the team's chances to make the playoffs. In fact, it's indisputable that Smoltz has already hurt the team in his starts. The team has lost five of the six games Smoltz started and he has worn out the bullpen.
So, what is it going to take, Theo? I'm afraid the Sox are being stubborn on this one. Terry Francona, before today's game, was urging everyone to be patient with Smoltz. One of this Red Sox team's few weaknesses in recent years has been to stay too long with a non-performing player. Remember Francona repeatedly bringing Eric Gagne in? How about Javier Lopez or Alan Embree, when he got bad a few years back? Tim Wakefield at various times?
Yet, at the same time, the team - along with baseball writers and fans - have shown much more tolerance with Smoltz than with Daisuke Matsuzaka, who, despite his 18 - 3 record last year, was dealt with quickly when he didn't perform this year and reassigned to strengthen his shoulder in Florida most of the summer.
I fear this Smoltz "experiment" has become some strange "personal" matter for Epstein, Francona or other Sox officials. Smoltz, after all, is 42 and coming back from surgery. They want him to succeed so badly, it seems, that they're willing to assume the risk of hurting the team quite badly to prove they're right.
It's time to replace Smoltz in the rotation and move on.
Of course, the largest area I feel the Red Sox must face reality with is their lack of hitting. I think sportswriters and fans are in the same denial as the team about just how weak this team's offense is. I ask you: Who is a consistent hitter who can "carry" this team for a spell? Who is a consistent power hitter? A consistent "contact hitter"? The team has a lot of fastball hitters, but, who can hit breaking stuff? It's not a coincidence that SO MANY young pitchers, who have never faced the Sox before, have shut them down easily.
I feel the argument to land a high-calibre player like Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez has become very hard to refute. Opponents of a major move express worry about who such a new star player might replace in the line-up, but, I think one has to face this line-up is a losing one.
I realize, as I write this, the Sox are right behind the Yankees, but, they're getting worse while the Yanks and other teams are getting better. Plus, isn't it hard to imagine this lineup making it into the playoffs and World Series?
I know it's oversimplifying, but, the Sox have not come close to filling the tremendous void left by the absence of Manny Ramirez!! If this team still had Manny, I'd feel better about its offense, wouldn't you?

Sox Hitting Woes Continue: Help Needed

Weak Hitting Catches Up to Red Sox
OK. When are the Boston baseball writers - and many fans - going to come out of their denial about the Red Sox hitting? Maybe the past few days will help convince people that, yes, the Sox need to add hitting if they want to compete with the Yankees, Rays or anyone else this fall.
Tonight, the Sox made Tommy Hunter look like Roy Halliday - scratching out only four hits against the very young Ranger starter, who they clobbered last year. Lately, the Sox cannot hit any pitchers, it seems. No one in the lineup has looked great, but, Drew, Ellsbury, Varitek and Green have really struggled.
In the past day or two, some have discussed the need for more production from the leadoff hitter - whether it's been Ellsbury or Drew. I must say I do not think Ellsbury is ready to perform well in that role. Why? It's very simple: He doesn't take nearly enough pitches, and, doesn't walk nearly enough. Plus, and this is huge: He is not a good "contact hitter." Ellsbury, at this young point in his career, swings early - and commits early - at the incoming pitch. He needs to wait longer and see the ball longer if he is to become a better hitter.
Can Ellsbury improve enough to be a good leadoff hitter in the second half of 2009? I doubt it, but, I hope so.
The Sox are simply expecting too much out of certain hitters. David Ortiz is an example. He's still not what he used to be, and it's probably unlikely to reach that level. Tonight, for example, when he came up against Hunter in the 6th inning with Youkilis on 2nd base, (Youkilis had just doubled in Pedroia to get the Sox within one run), Ortiz got a hittable pitch down the middle and popped it up, ending the threat. Ortiz has hit so many popups and harmless flyballs this year that it's ridicolous. In the past, Big Papi might have drilled that pitch for an extra base hit.
I won't go on. Drew needs an adrenalin injection or something to get more aggressive at the plate. He appears so indifferent as he watches strike after strike hit one of the corners.
Anyway, it's time for Theo and company to get realistic about this line-up - by adding to it!
Pitching, by Accident, Just Got Better
Tim Wakefield is on the disabled list, forcing the Sox to call up Clay Buchholz. I think Buchholz' mere presence on the staff makes the Sox a bit better - by forcing Epstein, Farrell and Francona to compare his stuff to the pitches thrown by Penny and Smoltz -- and maybe decide Buchholz deserves a few chances, or, a regular spot in the rotation. I just wish Buchholz didn't have to start by facing the Rangers lineup tomorrow because they have a few very tough hitters.
Tonight's game, in my view, is perhaps the best recent evidence of the Sox need to get a hitter at the Trading Deadline. Why? The Sox ace, Josh Beckett pitched tonight - and pitched quite well, but the Sox couldn't put any runs on the board -- so, his quality pitching ended up being irrelevant. You can't win with pitching only, Theo, no?

Sox Need to Make Changes for Second Half

It'll be Decision Time soon for Theo Epstein and his team. The Red Sox must decide whether to make deals at the Trading Deadline - and, if not, whether to shake up the team's pitching rotation and hitting lineup for the second half.
I, for one, still feel this Sox team is a bit over-rated. That they played a little over their heads in the first half and found unusual ways to win despite injuries, the two-month slump of David Ortiz and some weak hitting at times.
Pitching Changes Possible
it seems at least more likely there will be changes in Red Sox pitching rotation. I hope and expect Clay Buchholz to replace Brad Penny in the starting rotation. I hope the Sox are able to trade Penny at the deadline because they can insert a pitcher with a better chance to make a quality start every time he takes the mound. (Buchholz)
What I hope sealed this deal (in my fantasy projection) is Penny's most recent poor outing, when he gave up six runs in five innings. That outing followed several other mediocre outings by Penny. Why stick with a guy who has been "average" much of the time when Buchholz has proven - most recently at Pawtucket - that he can excell?
Who knows what other changes might come to the rotation? If the Red Sox are not at least thinking seriously about reversing their plans to leave John Smoltz in the rotation all summer, they should begin reflecting now. Tonight, in his fifth start, Smoltz, after looking decent for a few innings, imploded in the sixth and gave up three home runs. From watching Smoltz, it seems he is almost unaware of how hittable some of his pitches are -- whether it's his slower fastball or one of his breaking pitches that seem to "hang" badly on occasion. Any way you look at it, Smoltz does not look intimidating out there; instead, he looks like a old, veteran pitcher who's throwing a lot of "soft" stuff because he's lost confidence in his fastball.
Granted, maybe Smoltz can still turn it around. He's had flashes of his old self = particularly when his slider has had real bite to it. However, the Sox cannot be "sentimental" with Smoltz. He's not looked really good in any outings, except one in which he pitched for a few innings of a game that was eventually cancelled against the Orioles. Opposing hitters are batting .303 against him. If he doesn't show more soon, I think they should at least plan for the contingency of releasing him or using him in the bullpen. Last point: Smoltz seems a bit in denial himself about the quality of his pitching. He keeps saying after games that he's felt good and that hitters have, at least sometimes, hit good pitches.
So, I think the Sox should start Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield and the fifth should be Smoltz for only a relatively short while longer. If he turns it around, great. If not, I'd re-insert Dice-K or whoever else is next in line -- Michael Bowden?
Hitting Changes Possible
It seems the signs everywhere suggest the Sox feel they're "all set" with hitting - and that baffles me. I know some of their stats compare well vs. other teams, but, my observations - watching games - tell a different story. I see Jason Bay in this long slump, and my reaction is that Bay was never as good as he played in his torrid first half - I expect he'll hit better, but I think Bay, ultimately, is a good hitter who is occasionally very good -- but, rarely outstanding. Plus, Bay cannot hit breaking pitches well and that comes back to haunt him a lot. Ortiz is basically back, but not all the way, by any means. He, also, is now a good hitter - not a great hitter -- so that hurts the team, especially without Manny Ramirez around. Youkilis and Pedroia have both had ups and downs, but, I think you can count on them as performing solidly - even if neither has a season as stellar as 2008. Who's left? J D Drew? He's had a poor year, overall. He's batting about 240. He has hit poorly in the clutch and his failure to take a more aggressive approach with men on base has hurt the team badly - again. He's a very over-rated player. Mike Lowell has been solid when he has played - but, he's more fragile due to his hip injury and he cannot run. Jason Varitek is much improved over last year, but remains a weak hitter, especially against breaking pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury is an over-rated hitter, in general. He often has at bats when he simply doesn't look good. He has a weird snappy swing that looks bad often -- He doesn't wait on the pitch and swing through it... I don't have much confidence he can be a first-rate lead-off hitter when he continues to lack an ability to get a walk.
That leaves shortstops Jed Lowrie, who needs time to recover from surgery, and Nick Green, who has slumped badly of late.
Overall, is this a lineup that even compares to the Yankees hitting? No way. No way. Red Sox fans are dreaming if they think our lineup is that good.
I think if there is any way the Red Sox can improve their hitting - either by acquiring a much better hitter to serve as a bench/reserve player OR miraculously acquire a top-notch shortstop from a team, they should do it. Either way, the Sox need more punch in their lineup if they're going to compete with the Yankees and the Rays. You cannot win a title with only pitching. We learned the need for balance in 2004 and 2007 -- and, we had Manny Ramirez for those title runs. Let's face it. The Red Sox have not come close to replacing Manny's hitting in their line-up.

Papelbon Looked Much Better Tonight

OK, even after what I wrote yesterday about Jonathan Papelbon, I have to acknowledge that he pitched great tonight! Tonight, after a masterful performance by Jon Lester over eight innings, Papelbon came in to preserve a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning. As NESN analyst Dennis Eckersley pointed out, it seemed that Papelbon was particularly focused on the task at hand tonight. He seemed to feel the fragility of the 1-0 lead - and he performed as well as he has all year. His fastball was moving again. A handful of his pitches reached 97 mph - a level Papelbon does not usually reach. He was moving his heater inside, outside and up in the zone to make batters swing. The Boston Globe's Tony Maserotti just commented on NESN that he thought Papelbon tonight looked like he has the past few years - at the top of his game, throwing with a bit more velocity and requiring little time (and less pitches) to get three outs.
So, how does one explain the Papelbon of tonight vs. Wednesday night? Tom Caron of NESN just remarked that Papelbon apparently didn't get his normal time to warm up in Wednesday night's game. Who knows?
I think one aspect is clear: Papelbon often pitches better when he has rested the night before. When he throws in back-to-back games, he's sometimes a bit less sharp and some of his fastballs are more likely to have a bit less zip. I agree with what Maserotti just said: That Papelbon is much more effective when his velocity is a bit higher --- 96, let's say, rather than 93 or 94, the speed of a fair number of his fastballs this year. Plus, for whatever the reason, some nights this year, he has the "late life" and other nights, he does not.
I still stand on my points from last night, but, after tonight, I'd add this: The Red Sox should treat Papelbon with extra care and precautions and give him as much rest as possible. The disparity in his outings - highlighted by his brilliance tonight - underscores that point.

Will Papelbon Be Strong in October?

Maybe I'm in a tiny minority of fans worried about Jonathan Papelbon, but, he still does not seem himself on the mound - and, the season is half over.
I've written about my observations of Papelbon a number of times on this blog. Most often, I've written that Papelbon didn't have the same "late life" on his fastball this year. His control has not been nearly as good. He has walked far more hitters. He has thrown far more pitches in many appearances, as hitters have made frequent contact, fouling off pitches and making flyball and line drive outs quite often. However, a few times, just when I've been ready to conclude Papelbon is hurt or has a serious problem, he's had a good outing - featuring swinging strikeouts. This had reassured me. Plus, I read - as you did - that Papelbon had changed his pitching motion - to put more weight on his legs and reduce strain on his arm. This made one speculate that he was adjusting to the new motion.
Yet, after last night's outing - my concern about Papelbon is back - and now, I'm wondering if he will have the same recurring problems all season, or, very possibly, get worse.
Last night, I watched Papelbon barely survive a long 9th inning against the Oakland Athletics. It was familiar. He gave up a walk, a single, and, then, a smash hit to center that looked like it would be a home run, but it stayed in the yard - a sacrifice fly - due to very strong incoming wind. He then got a strikeout, gave up a single and struck out the last batter.
As often, Papelbon was unable to get his "straight"-looking fastball by some hitters. (In past years, he has fired strikes - even down the middle - easily by hitters because of his "giddy-up."
What's going on with Papelbon? Is his arm worn out? Did he change his motion out of necessity due to worries about potential strain to his arm? Do the Red Sox expect him to be effective all season? Maybe one of their chief motivations to get Daniel Bard up to the big leagues fast this season was to be a backpup to Papelbon THIS year instead of in future seasons.
I don't know, but, right now Papelbon does not look strong and refreshed out there. He looks like he could easily wear down further by September -and, by then, his fastballs might be even more hittable.
Ramon Ramirez has to work his way out of a little pitching slump. He still is not "right" - He's throwing balls out over the plate too often. Justin Masterson has had two bad outings. The bullpen is finally showing a bit of vulnerability, and it only underlines the Sox need to bolster their only real need for improvement - the bottom part of their hitting lineup.

State of the Sox Heading Into July

The Red Sox keep rolling - with pitching - on top of the AL East. In fact, I feel - as the season nears the All-Star Break - that this team feels more defined by its pitching strength than any team in my lifetime.
Their rotation has gotten stronger as Beckett and Lester have found their comfort zones and performed superbly in recent weeks. The bullpen has continued to perform with amazing steadiness. Overall, while the team's hitting is good, it's pitching is its essence - its core strength. I'm trying to recall other Sox teams with pitching that approached this 2009 staff. Of course, the 2004 staff - with Schilling, Pedro and Lowe was damned good, but, Lowe didn't have a great regular season - and saved, by far, his best pitching for the playoffs. Schilling had his "A" game most of the season, but, Pedro, while very good, was past his absolute prime years back in 1999 - 2000. (although 20 -4 in 2004 wasn't bad, either, huh?) My point is that this 2009 pitching is top-notch from beginning to end -- and, the team is more dependent on its pitching this year than in 2004. Think back to the hitting lineup of 2004 vs today's. Then, we had Manny, Damon, Mueller, Millar and Ortiz at top of his prime.
The pitching in other years just doesn't compare. Yes, it was good in 2007, but this year's bullpen is better. In 2003, the bullpen in late innings was good (Timlin, Embree, Williamson) but, not as good throughout and the same was true of starting rotation. In 1978, Eckersley was the ace, but, if Mike Torrez was considered in top of rotation, that reminds us of its lower quality. (Tiant and Lee were good for half season)
The point is the Red Sox pitching is as good as any other team's in baseball. At the start of 2009, the conventional wisdom was that the Yanks had a better rotation. I don't buy that and our bullpen is superior to New York's...........but.........................I still think the Sox need to make a significant move at the trading deadline.

The Sox Should Deal for a Good Hitter

With their pitching set up to win it all and David Ortiz hitting again, what are the Red Sox needs?

(I just learned Mike Lowell has been placed on the 15-day DL, so, that will hurt the team before the break and the uncertainty about Lowell from this point on will impact Theo Epstein's outlook at the trading deadline)

Some observers are saying the Sox don't need anything. They've shown they're the best in baseball with their current lineup. However, they're not factoring in that - right now - the Red Sox are in a unique position: They have the second-best record in baseball but they also have a "surplus" of talent, particularly when considering the number of first-rate minor-league prospects. They are in a better position to make a trade than I can recall in any season.

So, how can the Red Sox choose NOT to make a trade, and, thereby give this great team an even BETTER chance to win the championship in 2009? I think the arguments to trade for a hitter or two are absolutely compelling. With Lowell's injury, this is even more clear. Now, I admit I don't know who will be available, so, my point is weakened or irrelevant if no good players are around on July 31.

The logical position to insert a very good hitter is at shortstop. Neither Nick Green or Julio Lugo can be relied on for good field and consistent hitting the rest of the season. Yes, Green has performed beyond expectations, gotten key hits and been acceptable at short despite a number of errors. I'd rather have a better player, if possible.

Other observations from recent games:

• Ramon Ramirez has been in a little pitching slump and I hope he comes out of it soon. Last night, he looked "strong" - as Eckersley said on TV - but, he still gave up a hit and a walk in the inning he pitched.
• Big Papi is still not all the way back, in my view. I think he's likely to get a bit better if he, in fact, still has the same talent and was in bad habits at the plate. His swing has been slightly off on some pitches down the middle of the plate, making him pop up or hit fouls on pitches I think he would have more often belted for hits in the past. On the other hand, the trends are still good with Papi. His hitting eye seems back - He's been very selective -as in the past and drawn many walks. I think if he waits a tiny bit longer for the ball to get closer to him -as he used to - he'll regain even more of his form. Then again, maybe I have to face that he's not likely to return to the same level. We shall see.
• I still don't feel Ellsbury looks good at the plate. I wish he'd change his swing and swing through the ball more. He continues to have that short, choppy swing - It looks too short - like he's not following through and "carrying" the ball on the bat long enough.
• Dustin Pedroia is bound to get even more hot as the season continues, but, I've really noticed that he gets far less pitches down the middle this season. Teams know how good he is now and they keep pitching him on the outside corner. While he's adjusted and can hit line-drive singles to right, he has not pulled as many line drives off the wall this year, it seems. Pedroia is the least of my concerns.
• Papelbon, in a couple of recent games, has worried me a bit -- again. If I had to summarize the differences with Papelbon, one thing stands out: When he throws a fastball down the middle this year, the hitter gets wood on it more often than in 2007 or 2008 - fouling it off, making an out or getting a hit. His fastball sometimes still lacks giddy-up and other times, the hitters are just more ready for Papelbon's fastball and he can't get away with those pitches right over the plate. (In the past, he could often just blow the ball by the hitter now matter if down the middle or on the corners) Now, Papelbon must either add that old zip to his heater or simply hit the corners more. It's a tribute to him that he's still performing so well, but, I think he'll have to make adjustments if he's going to keep it up into the playoffs. He can't keep getting away with these outings with walks, hits and so many pitches.

Dice-K to DL; Red Sox' Depth Paying Off

Well, in my last post a week ago, I was suggesting that Dice-K be placed on the disabled list -- and I'm glad that has finally happened. (He had another poor outing June 19th) Maybe he can address his pitching problems in time to return with more effectiveness this season, but, I think it's going to take him most of the summer. Who knows if he'll even be back this season?

I think, despite the reluctance of Red Sox to acknowledge it, a sizeable part of Matsuzaka's difficulty is physical. His arm seems really tired. Perhaps his lack of velocity and other symptoms are related to his entire career, which includes years of a heavy pitching workload in Japan.

In any event, with John Smoltz filling Dice-K's spot in the rotation and Clay Buchholz ready to come up anytime, it seems the Sox starting pitching will remain as strong as ever.

The Red Sox' depth is emerging as a strength perhaps unmatched by any other team in Major League Baseball in 2009. So far, the depth of their bullpen has been even more impressive.

Unlike most baseball seasons in my life, I cannot think of a relief pitcher who might come into a game who is "bad" or sub-par. Almost every pitcher in the bullpen has pitched well. Javier Lopez, who didn't perform, is no longer on the team. Even lately, when individual pitchers like Ramon Ramirez, who has been terrific most of the season, has run into a rough patch, it doesn't matter as much because there is always another relief pitcher to come in and get the job done.
Yesterday, in a very unusual moment, Ramirez and Hideki Okajima both gave up hits to the Braves, but the Sox still hung in there and won on Nick Green's walk-off home run.

On top of pitchers' performing, David Ortiz appears further along on his way back to form.. He has found his timing and looks very different at the plate in the past two or three weeks. It still feels a tiny bit early to know if Big Papi can stay in this groove, but, what's important is that he's demonstrated his problems didn't seem tied to lost bat speed, but, rather, mechanical details he can address. If Ortiz can keep hitting like this, this may put the Sox over the top.

I think they could still use more hitting, and I hope Theo Epstein explores potential moves at the trading deadline. Think about it: This is one of the few moments in recent Sox history when they can approach the trading deadline with a "surplus" of players - of pitchers! - they can use to get a player or two to strengthen their team. Shouldn't Theo seize this moment and make the Sox even more unbeatable? Yes, injuries might still be a huge factor, especially with older, veteran pitchers like Smoltz and Brad Penny in our rotation, but, that just bolsters the argument to add to our lineup.

Back to Matsuzaka a second: I still don't understand why baseball writers lack the confidence to identify what they see with their own eyes. They kept harping on Dice-K's performance in recent weeks rather than discussing how he looked on the mound. His fastball had become so flat and hittable. It lacked any zip. His breaking pitches were often a lot further out of the strike zone than usual. Why didn't any writers mention that something seemed wrong with Dice-K?
It seems they were too wrapped up in enjoying ripping into Matsuzaka in every other way and harping on how BAD he was. Sportswriters in this town have been too hard on Dice-K, in my view. Don't get me wrong: I've been annyed by Dice-K myself, but, I can at least acknowledge his positive moments. In his first year, he did well much of the time. I recall him baffling hitters in the best lineups like the Yankees. My point is: There's a difference between Matsuzaka not performing due to arm trouble and him not performing because he's simply a bad pitcher. Well, he's a very good pitcher with serious arm (and shoulder) problems, I'd say.
Last point: Another HUGE point not made often enough is that Matsuzaka has found it very hard to adjust to pitching in the United States. I think it's fairly clear that he cannot grip the American baseball as he could grip the ball in Japan. He cannot throw the same pitches in the US. (He throws his changeup only occasionally here despite his changeup being his strongest pitch in Japan!) Peter Gammons is the only baseball writer who I've noticed ever reporting on these important changes Matsuzaka had to make.

Dice-K Should Go Back on the Disabled List

Those of us who watched Dice-K Matsuzaka's performance this past Saturday night (June 13th) saw a pitcher who does not look close to how he pitched last year. Instead, he continued to not only pitch poorly, but, to appear at less than full strength.

Dice-K, in my view, has some physical problem that's making him ineffective. Maybe it's simply fatigue - in his arm or shoulder. I don't know. All I know is that he looked terrible. His fastball not only lacks velocity, but the kind of zip or giddy-up it has had in the past. His breaking pitches, particularly his normally-effective slider that cuts to the left, have been really bad and wild. He's lost much control of all his breaking pitches. All of this seems to point to an injury or health problem that must be addressed.

I predict the Red Sox will place Dice-K on the disabled list (DL) but, if they don't, they should.

I just hope Dice-K can improve in time to return to the rotation and be effective this season. He looks so bad and arm-weary that I worry this problem may be more long-lasting. Dice-K has, after all, pitched a ton of innings that might have contributed to general fatigue in his arm.

Addressing Questions On the Rotation

I think if Dice-K goes on the DL, it would make immediate decisions about which pitchers to include in the rotation much easier. You could move Smoltz into Dice-K-s spot - if, in fact, Smoltz pitches well in his next start in Pawtucket. (If Smotz, by chance, keeps giving up hits and runs in Pawtucket, perhaps he should, simply, not join the Red Sox at all).

In any event, it appears the Red Sox could benefit from taking a bit more time to make decisions about its rotation for the rest of the 2009 season. Brad Penny, so good against the Yankees last week, can get a couple of more starts to evaluate. The team can monitor Smoltz and Dice-K. Then, depending on their needs, they can decide if they might trade Penny or what other moves to make. Perhaps the next few weeks will make it easier to decide to bring Clay Buchholz up to the Sox.

I hope, when the dust clears, that Dice-K has a good-sized rest before he rejoins the staff or is allowed to keep pitching. Something is wrong with him and it makes zero sense, given our incredibly rare "surplus" of good pitchers, to "force things" with an unhealthy Dice-K. (Even Dice-K, in a rare interview with Foxsports.com last week, said that, after his previous start, he felt his pitching had been "plain" and described his inability to mix his "hard' stuff with his "softer" pitches.

On the Rest of the Team..............

This has been a terrific stretch for this team. Their sweep of the Yankees last week was impressive. especially their overall pitching - starting and bullpen. Lester and Beckett have been on fire. (OK, Beckett had one bad outing...) David Ortiz showed more signs of life in the past ten days than he has all season, hitting a couple of "Ortiz-type" home runs at Fenway and showing more patience at the plate. It seems, every night, a different player or two plays the key role in contributing to a win. Papelbon has kept getting the job done. A couple of relief pitchers had unusual, bad outings (Ramirez, Delcarmen, Bard yesterday) but, for the most part, have continued to excell. Hideki Okajima continues his stellar pitching.

If this team can be in first place - despite the ups and downs it has experienced so far - all indications suggest this Red Sox team will remain in serious contention all summer - and, if they can add a little more hitting - have as good a chance as any team to win the World Series.

Sox-Yanks Series A Good Indicator

Beckett Game a Terrific Start

How the Red Sox fare in this home series against the Yanks seems a good measure of their strength right now.

Last night, I attended the first game - watching Josh Beckett have one of his best outings ever (as a Red Sox player) against the Yankees. I was truly amazed at how effective Beckett was - given that I've watched him struggle in many games against the Bombers. Because Beckett relies so heavily on his fastball, I think it's always a challenge for him to get through the Yankee lineup of the past few years. Most of the Yanks are fantastic fastball hitters who blast any "mistake" pitches down the middle. Well, last night, Beckett obviously had excellent command of his fastball and he used his curve and changeup a lot, keeping the Yankees off balance.

I do not recall other Beckett outings vs. the Yankees when so few Yankees even hit the ball hard during the entire time Beckett was in there. They had only one hit - the groundball that Pedroia stopped, but, couldn't get a throw to first on.

Perhaps the rainy night affected the Yankees. Whatever it was, I was astonished that the All-Star lineup couldn't make better contact for six innings against Beckett. Delcarmen did OK and then Daniel Bard came in and just blew the ball by Texeira, A-Rod and Cano. Bard was throwing 98 - 99 - one pitch at 100 mph, and, I was sitting right down near home plate, and I'm telling you those great hitters could not get the bat around on Bard.

Of course, Ortiz' home run to center was a joy to watch -- Is he - maybe - really on his way back now? That home run -- unlike the others -- looked more like an old Papi home run. It was blasted, and, he knew it was gone.

What's Up with Matsuzaka?

It's very hard to understand where Dice-K is at this year. Is his arm still tired - partly due to his playing in the World Baseball Classic, or, is it perhaps cumulative fatigue from his whole career - including many long games he pitched for years in Japan? What's his attitude toward how he gets treated by John Farrell, the pitching coach, and Terry Francona?
Why does he show so little sign of changing the habits that cause him problems on the mound?
I ask these questions after Dice-K struggled in his last outing and lasted only five innings - again.
He didn't walk any hitters, raising questions as to whether he did so to "comply" with a more stern request from Francona and Farrell. He just doesn't seem as sharp this year and no sportswriters seem able to get interviews with him - or to get the truth through other sources.

It's time the Red Sox got a better handle on Matsuzaka and shared the insights with the fans.

It's Dice-K's THIRD season here and the only way I found out he has difficulty gripping the American baseball compared to the ball used in Japan was by catching a Peter Gammons column within the past year that revealed that. Matsuzaka does better gripping the smaller ball used in Japan. To me, Dice-K's problems gripping the ball seem likely related to his chronic problems with control. Gammons reported that Dice-K stopped using his changeup as much due to the
issues gripping the ball - and, apparently, he dropped one or two other pitches in order to focus on his remaining pitches.

Matsuzaka has stubbornly clung to his habit of "nibbling" on the corners when good hitters face him - and, often, walking them rather than challenging them with pitches over or close to the plate. He does this despite having two or more terrific "breaking" pitches - his cutter, his slider or even his curve, which he doesn't use often. Dice-K does not seem interested in changing his approach -and that must be driving Farrell and Francona crazy.

Last year, I defended Dice-K when people criticized him. He had a great year, but fans got on him for pitching so many five-inning games due to control problems. Well, he was great.
Now, that he's in his third year hear, I've been more impacted by the cumulative effect of watching him walk opposing batters needlessly in every game he pitches.
If Matsuzaka does not improve this year, it will put Theo Epstein in a difficult position. He invested so much in this pitcher, but, he's got a lot of good young pitchers waiting to get a turn now. The Red Sox should treat Matsuzaka like all the other pitchers.