The Yankees now sure as hell look like the The Team to Win it All in 2009.
It has been painful to watch the Yanks beat up on the Sox the past two series. Suddenly, the rivalry is more of the familiar mismatch that it used to be in the late 90s, it appears. I know this Sox team is better than the team that lost to the Yanks in 1999, but, there is the same old "uphill" feeling of watching the Sox try to struggle to get or hold a lead in these games.
The surprise for me, like many fans, has been the sharp improvement in the Yankees' pitching since the start of the year. C.C. Sabathia is pitching like he did in Cleveland now. (I still have doubts about whether he'll perform this well all through the playoffs) Pettite has done better than I expected. And, despite AJ Burnett's problems with the Sox, he's pitched well most of the season.
This Yankee team has the same traits as other recent Yankee lineups in terms of hitting, but, they're perhaps a bit better than a few other Yankee teams since 2001. First, the addition of Mark Teixeira alone has bolstered the team. Cano, who, amazingly bats 7th on occasion, has been the stud hitter he can be ALL season this year. Jeter, defying the aging process, is actually hitting better this year. Matsui, suddenly looks like he went back five years in time and is belting the ball. (How did he do that?) And on and on and on.
The only way for any team - whether in the American or National League - to defeat this loaded, dangerous hitting Yankee team is with stellar pitching. I mean two or more starters - like Schilling and Johnson did in 2001 - shutting down the Yankee offense. (Or, the way the Tigers did it a few years ago, with Rogers, Verlander and Bonderman) Now, yes, the Red Sox are among a very small group of teams that have a couple of stud pitchers who one can imagine pulling this off in Beckett and Lester. However, as we saw in Sunday night's game, even Beckett has to be "on" to limit the Yankee hitters; without a good curve ball, Beckett proved to be very hittable for the fastball-loving Bombers.
So, all teams are chasing the Yanks and must pitch brilliantly in the playoffs to stop them. Having said that, the Red Sox certainly have a decent chance to win the wild card, but, the Rays and Rangers have nearly the same chance, in my view. (I think the Rays have about an equal chance to the Sox because of their talent in pitching and hitting is at or even better than the Sox.)
Why Did Sox Stay with Penny & Smoltz So Long?
I think this question will linger into the winter if the Sox fail to advance in the playoffs.
First, I really believe Brad Penny displayed his mediocrity and limited talents very early on in this 2009 season and he should have been replaced in the rotation a lot sooner. Penny throws mostly fastballs for the entire game - which, in itself, is an indictment of his capacity as a pitcher. The vast majority of pitchers in the American and National League do not throw ONLY A FASTBALL for their entire outing in the same fashion that Penny has. So, as I watched Penny - outing after outing - get hit harder and harder as the game progressed and the opposing hitters got more familiar with his fastball - I wondered: "Why is Sox management putting this guy out there when he has nothing more in his aresenal?"
Penny somehow pitched some half-decent games earlier, but, his outings never lasted more than six innings and he got terrific run support and that distorted how he was actually doing.
As the season progressed, and the "book" was out on Penny among AL teams AND he fell into his decline after the All-Star break, it was painfully obvious that he didn't belong in the rotation. The Sox were VERY slow in removing him, waiting until after his horrible outing last Friday night against the Bombers - which was a hopeless effort. He might as well have been throwing beachballs to the Pinstripers, who just waited on his "meatball" fastballs.
So, if one accepts that Penny stayed in the rotation too long AND, also, that Smoltz was allowed to stay in there way too long, well, that adds up to A LOT of losses for this 2009 Sox team.
Who was responsible for that? Theo Epstein, more than anyone, and, secondly, Terry Francona, who as manager, should have not agreed to put these pitchers out there - even if Theo was influencing the moves.
There is another question that has not been raised about Penny & Smoltz's roles and that is: Why didn't the Sox have more minor-league pitchers who they could have brought up, and, at least TRIED inserting, even if temporarily, in these starting spots? The Red Sox, supposedly, have a deep minor-league system, but, if they felt there were more good young arms to tap, one assumes they would have. Yet, the Red Sox have, on occasion, been too conservative and reluctant about bringing minor-league pitchers up. I'd argue that Clay Buchholz should have been called up after Penny had pitched five or six times and shown his limitations.
David Ortiz, Argubly, May Be One of the Only Players to Lead Sox Into Playoffs
Big Papi is hitting very well again and it seems likely he's got extra motivation to prove his critics wrong after the steroid controversy swirling around him. Ortiz said he was careless with supplements in the past (in 2003, he's implied) but denies ever using steroids. Who knows?
All I know is Ortiz looks more focused at the plate in the past ten days than I've seen him look all season. When he hit his home run off Burnett Saturday, it was a fastball away that he drove into the Monster seats, but, what impressed me was how he waited on that pitch until the ball got closer to his bat. Big Papi has been waiting for the ball to get further into the strike zone, allowing himself that extra split second to make better contact. Ortiz used to hit like this all the time a few years ago, but, this year - and perhaps last year, with his bad wrist - he began "committing" on his swing a tiny bit earlier, making it harder to avoid hitting popups or striking out on breaking pitches.
If, in fact, Ortiz is "on a mission," to prove himself over the weeks ahead, it's possible he could keep hitting home runs and doubles the way he used to - and, in the process, lead the team to some key wins as they compete with the Rays and Rangers for a wild card spot.
Buchholz, Wakefield, Tazawa Likely to Play Key Roles
If the Sox are to make it, they'll need Buchholz to perform steadily as a starter. He's looked very good lately, but, no one knows if he can keep lasting a good six or seven innings in his starts. Tim Wakefield's contribution remains uncertain, depending on the health of his calf. If he can't field his position, he may suddenly have to be replaced - again. Tazawa may wind up in the role formerly occupied by Justin Masterson as a "long man" out of the bullpen, or, as a spot starter.
JD Drew's Awful Season
Drew has been disappointing during most of his time on the Red Sox, but, this year, in particular, his poor hitting has really hurt the team, which has desparatedly needed offense at times, especially with men on base. Drew has continued in his bad habits of taking way too many pitches - particularly with men on base and simply failing to get hits despite his natural talents.
Relief Pitchers Continue to be More Erratic
Rookie Daniel Bard has run into a little rough patch. He's given up some big home runs - first in that series against the Yankees and another in another series. In any event, Bard has to stop leaving his fastball up in the strike zone. He has to keep it on the corners more.
Meanwhile, Ramon Ramirez continues to struggle. What is his problem? No one has identified it, but, he is simply not reliable - as he was during the first half.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
Can the Collapsing Sox Make the Playoffs?
The 2009 Red Sox are falling downhill fast and everyone is trying to figure out how and why it's happening so quickly. Will this team get its act together and still make the playoffs?
Let's analyze the collapse first. I'll discuss only two factors that I think loom large:
1. Ortiz & Ramirez Are Gone -- and Have Never Been Replaced
The Red Sox lost Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of last season, and they've still not replaced what those two mega-stars brought to the table. I say "lost David Ortiz" because I'm referring to the Ortiz of old -- before his wrist injury and other issues caused his skills to decline - and, he's never been the same. He's still fairly good at times - and I think he may finish this 2009 season half-decently, but, he's not even close to the hitter he was two or three years ago, when he resembled Barry Bonds at the plate. (in Bonds' hitting skill) However, I find baseball writers and talk show blowhards amazingly unable to acknowledge this LARGE reality about the IMPACT of the absence of the "old" Ortiz and the multi-talented Ramirez.
Instead, the baseball "pack" of writers keep trying to assess how a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Green and Varitek could have unraveled. Well, the names alone don't even suggest much strength, power, consistency or clutch hitting, do they? If you insert Ramirez and Ortiz - the 2004 variety - it gets instantly A LOT better, huh? I've discussed this lineup in other posts, but, none of these players can CARRY a team for any length of time. Youkilis and Pedroia, when hitting well together, can be damned good and "stand out," but, this year, even they have been a bit erratic - and, neither has the stature of the old Ortiz or Ramirez - period.
So, I'm arguing that Theo Epstein and company don't want any of us to focus on the incredible LOSS this team has absorbed since the middle of 2008, when Manny was traded. Without Manny - particularly this year - one often felt the line-up's vulnerability when, for instance, the team faced a new, young pitcher it had never seen. Often, this line-up has been silenced on those days, which are just the kind of games when Manny, singlehandedly, used to hit a home run and a double to knock in enough runs and, singlehandedly, get a win for the team.
It seems the superior gifts Manny brought have been forgotten by the pack of sports media, who spout the same B.S. in unison. (Watch: They're about to all descend on Drew now because Francona, in a rare moment, made a negative remark about Drew.)
Manny's absence helped keep the Sox from knocking off the Rays and winning it all in 2008, and, this year, with Ortiz struggling so long and others in sub-par seasons, his absence has hurt the lineup much more.
Ortiz and Ramirez were a modern-day Gehrig and Ruth - during their good run in Boston from 2003 - 2007. Yes, that's how good they were. This duo - by far more than any other players - brought two championships to the Red Sox. So, suddenly, Manny is gone and Ortiz has been a shadow of himself and the sportswriters are lamely searching for the explanation that, in many ways, is right in front of them. Why hasn't anyone asked Theo about this void and the team's failure to fill it? Seems after the Sox couldn't get Mark Texeira, they threw in the towel, in a way.
2) Theo & Company Have Badly Over-rated their Veteran Talent and Stayed with it
This is there for all to see. Theo, if pushed, would admit that he was WAY OFF in his projections on how JD Drew would perform here. To call Drew a "disappointment" is an incredible understatement. If it weren't for his salary, would he be in the starting lineup? I don't think so. He sure as hell wouldn't start for the Yankees. Drew hit the big slam in 07 to save the Sox' against the Indians in the playoffs and I'll always be grateful - but, it was a $14 million grand slam.
Theo has failed to get the team a very good shortstop - who can also hit - during most of his tenure. This has been covered. Lugo, Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have not been able to provide enough for different reasons, including injuries - though Green has made a good effort. Bay is good - not great (as the baseball writers often project) but he cannot hit breaking pitches and this keeps him from excelling and coming through in many moments with men on base. Lowell is good - not great - but also struggles with breaking pitches. At least Lowell has made adjustments and tried new approaches - like choking up when he has two strikes on him. Ellsbury, again, is good - but not great. He's had an unusually good stint of hitting lately, but he still has a poor swing and doesn't follow through enough with the bat and watch the ball long enough. Varitek's situation has been well-covered, but, now, with the season on the line, it's time for him to catch only Beckett and Lester at the most. His time is ending now and I think the team should probably not bring him back next year. He simply cannot hit for enough of the long season to provide at least some much-needed offense.
A look at the pitching reveals more misjudgments by Epstein for 09 - mainly in his sticking with John Smoltz and Brad Penny for so long. After Smoltz had appeared three times, it was obvious he didn't have it -- His remaining starts and losses hurt the team and are Epstein's responsibility. Penny has been over-rated for much of the year. He displayed his flaws and limitations early on, but the team stuck with him and now, they're paying the price as Penny deteriorates - as he apparently has in previous seasons. He should no longer be in the starting rotation - period. He throws only fastballs and any good professional hitters start to belt the ball off him by the second time around. His bad appearances - from early June on - are all on Epstein, if you ask me. I'd rather try Bowden or other young arms from the Sox minor-league system -- even if one or more of these pitchers needed time to get better. With Penny, you know what he cannot bring you. A younger pitcher MIGHT be better.
Rocco Baldelli was probably never going to provide sufficient hitting as a utility player.
Overall, I guess I'm sick and tired of hearing Francona or anyone associated with the Red Sox talk about what a good hitting lineup this team has. We've seen WAY TOO MANY games in 2009 when this team has been unable to do a thing against average pitchers. It is NOT an impressive line-up compared to many other teams - whether the Yanks, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies and more. The bottom half of the lineup has been poor since sometime in 2008.
One other thing: I wonder sometimes if the coaching is aggressive enough with certain players who make the same mistakes over and over. For example, Ramon Ramirez, who starred for the first couple of months of 2009, has not pitched well for about two months. He keeps leaving pitches up - and in the strike zone - and he keeps getting hit. I assume John Farrell talks to him - and I think Farrell is about the best pitching coach we've had for years, but, sometimes, I wonder if certain players require more or different coaching. Can't Ellsbury be taught to take more pitches and draw more walks for instance? Can't someone tell Drew to swing at more borderline pitches?
Can the Sox Make the Playoffs?
Maybe, maybe not. If I had to predict tonight, I'd say they're more likely to fall just short at the end of September. I think the Rays will likely finish ahead of them in the wild card, and, perhaps the Rangers too. Unfortunately, even if the Sox make the playoffs, I don't see how this Sox team can go far in the playoffs. It's not enough to have Beckett and Lester. You have to score a few runs - and, this team has been unable to do that.
Certain players, suddenly, have to play better. That's possible, but, it'll be tough in all the games when the Sox play tough teams. In the past month or more, the Sox have performed horribly against teams with winning records.
Victor Martinez probably is one of the only hopes -- I don't think it's fair to expect so much of him, a newcomer, but he has more talent than many others in that lineup and he might provide a spark. Plus, Ortiz has to perform as well as he did in his good stretch before the All-Star Break. Plus, Wakefield has to return to his form of the first half - and Buchholz or Matsuzaka or someone has to win a few games in the role of 5th starter.
Let's analyze the collapse first. I'll discuss only two factors that I think loom large:
1. Ortiz & Ramirez Are Gone -- and Have Never Been Replaced
The Red Sox lost Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of last season, and they've still not replaced what those two mega-stars brought to the table. I say "lost David Ortiz" because I'm referring to the Ortiz of old -- before his wrist injury and other issues caused his skills to decline - and, he's never been the same. He's still fairly good at times - and I think he may finish this 2009 season half-decently, but, he's not even close to the hitter he was two or three years ago, when he resembled Barry Bonds at the plate. (in Bonds' hitting skill) However, I find baseball writers and talk show blowhards amazingly unable to acknowledge this LARGE reality about the IMPACT of the absence of the "old" Ortiz and the multi-talented Ramirez.
Instead, the baseball "pack" of writers keep trying to assess how a lineup of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Bay, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Green and Varitek could have unraveled. Well, the names alone don't even suggest much strength, power, consistency or clutch hitting, do they? If you insert Ramirez and Ortiz - the 2004 variety - it gets instantly A LOT better, huh? I've discussed this lineup in other posts, but, none of these players can CARRY a team for any length of time. Youkilis and Pedroia, when hitting well together, can be damned good and "stand out," but, this year, even they have been a bit erratic - and, neither has the stature of the old Ortiz or Ramirez - period.
So, I'm arguing that Theo Epstein and company don't want any of us to focus on the incredible LOSS this team has absorbed since the middle of 2008, when Manny was traded. Without Manny - particularly this year - one often felt the line-up's vulnerability when, for instance, the team faced a new, young pitcher it had never seen. Often, this line-up has been silenced on those days, which are just the kind of games when Manny, singlehandedly, used to hit a home run and a double to knock in enough runs and, singlehandedly, get a win for the team.
It seems the superior gifts Manny brought have been forgotten by the pack of sports media, who spout the same B.S. in unison. (Watch: They're about to all descend on Drew now because Francona, in a rare moment, made a negative remark about Drew.)
Manny's absence helped keep the Sox from knocking off the Rays and winning it all in 2008, and, this year, with Ortiz struggling so long and others in sub-par seasons, his absence has hurt the lineup much more.
Ortiz and Ramirez were a modern-day Gehrig and Ruth - during their good run in Boston from 2003 - 2007. Yes, that's how good they were. This duo - by far more than any other players - brought two championships to the Red Sox. So, suddenly, Manny is gone and Ortiz has been a shadow of himself and the sportswriters are lamely searching for the explanation that, in many ways, is right in front of them. Why hasn't anyone asked Theo about this void and the team's failure to fill it? Seems after the Sox couldn't get Mark Texeira, they threw in the towel, in a way.
2) Theo & Company Have Badly Over-rated their Veteran Talent and Stayed with it
This is there for all to see. Theo, if pushed, would admit that he was WAY OFF in his projections on how JD Drew would perform here. To call Drew a "disappointment" is an incredible understatement. If it weren't for his salary, would he be in the starting lineup? I don't think so. He sure as hell wouldn't start for the Yankees. Drew hit the big slam in 07 to save the Sox' against the Indians in the playoffs and I'll always be grateful - but, it was a $14 million grand slam.
Theo has failed to get the team a very good shortstop - who can also hit - during most of his tenure. This has been covered. Lugo, Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have not been able to provide enough for different reasons, including injuries - though Green has made a good effort. Bay is good - not great (as the baseball writers often project) but he cannot hit breaking pitches and this keeps him from excelling and coming through in many moments with men on base. Lowell is good - not great - but also struggles with breaking pitches. At least Lowell has made adjustments and tried new approaches - like choking up when he has two strikes on him. Ellsbury, again, is good - but not great. He's had an unusually good stint of hitting lately, but he still has a poor swing and doesn't follow through enough with the bat and watch the ball long enough. Varitek's situation has been well-covered, but, now, with the season on the line, it's time for him to catch only Beckett and Lester at the most. His time is ending now and I think the team should probably not bring him back next year. He simply cannot hit for enough of the long season to provide at least some much-needed offense.
A look at the pitching reveals more misjudgments by Epstein for 09 - mainly in his sticking with John Smoltz and Brad Penny for so long. After Smoltz had appeared three times, it was obvious he didn't have it -- His remaining starts and losses hurt the team and are Epstein's responsibility. Penny has been over-rated for much of the year. He displayed his flaws and limitations early on, but the team stuck with him and now, they're paying the price as Penny deteriorates - as he apparently has in previous seasons. He should no longer be in the starting rotation - period. He throws only fastballs and any good professional hitters start to belt the ball off him by the second time around. His bad appearances - from early June on - are all on Epstein, if you ask me. I'd rather try Bowden or other young arms from the Sox minor-league system -- even if one or more of these pitchers needed time to get better. With Penny, you know what he cannot bring you. A younger pitcher MIGHT be better.
Rocco Baldelli was probably never going to provide sufficient hitting as a utility player.
Overall, I guess I'm sick and tired of hearing Francona or anyone associated with the Red Sox talk about what a good hitting lineup this team has. We've seen WAY TOO MANY games in 2009 when this team has been unable to do a thing against average pitchers. It is NOT an impressive line-up compared to many other teams - whether the Yanks, Rays, Rangers, Angels, Phillies and more. The bottom half of the lineup has been poor since sometime in 2008.
One other thing: I wonder sometimes if the coaching is aggressive enough with certain players who make the same mistakes over and over. For example, Ramon Ramirez, who starred for the first couple of months of 2009, has not pitched well for about two months. He keeps leaving pitches up - and in the strike zone - and he keeps getting hit. I assume John Farrell talks to him - and I think Farrell is about the best pitching coach we've had for years, but, sometimes, I wonder if certain players require more or different coaching. Can't Ellsbury be taught to take more pitches and draw more walks for instance? Can't someone tell Drew to swing at more borderline pitches?
Can the Sox Make the Playoffs?
Maybe, maybe not. If I had to predict tonight, I'd say they're more likely to fall just short at the end of September. I think the Rays will likely finish ahead of them in the wild card, and, perhaps the Rangers too. Unfortunately, even if the Sox make the playoffs, I don't see how this Sox team can go far in the playoffs. It's not enough to have Beckett and Lester. You have to score a few runs - and, this team has been unable to do that.
Certain players, suddenly, have to play better. That's possible, but, it'll be tough in all the games when the Sox play tough teams. In the past month or more, the Sox have performed horribly against teams with winning records.
Victor Martinez probably is one of the only hopes -- I don't think it's fair to expect so much of him, a newcomer, but he has more talent than many others in that lineup and he might provide a spark. Plus, Ortiz has to perform as well as he did in his good stretch before the All-Star Break. Plus, Wakefield has to return to his form of the first half - and Buchholz or Matsuzaka or someone has to win a few games in the role of 5th starter.
I think the Red Sox are in a major transition now. They have a few veterans who are in their last years --- Varitek, Lowell, Ortiz, Wakefield. They need a new injection for 2010.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Can Victor Martinez Rescue the Red Sox?
I know one player cannot do it all, but, I feel the acquisition of Victor Martinez was absolutely critical to the Red Sox even having a good chance to make the playoffs and go anywhere. I've been arguing the Sox needed this calibre of hitter for some time. Well, Theo and his team got it done and they deserve credit.
Martinez is off to a great start. He looks better at the plate than most of the other Sox players. He has a good stance - like he's going to uncoil on contact. Plus, he seems to have a good eye and watches the ball ALL the way in better than some of his teammates do.
So, while VMart is a terrific plus, it seems the rest of the team is undergoing a stressful time waiting for David Ortiz to face the media to talk about his past use of steroids. Big Papi has mysteriously waited much longer than anticipated to make any statement. Last Thursday, following a day game in Baltimore, Ortiz said he'd have more to say as soon as he got some questions answered from the MLB Players Association. Let's hope he does this before arriving in New York before Thursday, when the Sox face the Yankees for a four-game series. The fans and media in NY are unlikely to make this an easy weekend for Ortiz.
In the meantime, the pitching - once viewed as the team's steadiest strength - is suddenly showing a number of serious weaknesses.
1) Smoltz - I've given my views on him. If, somehow, he survives more than five innings against the Yankees, I will consider it a minor miracle. I just don't think Smoltz can last at all against all the Yanks' great fastball hitters when, he now has one of the worst, weakest fastballs I've seen in a long time. I predict he will be shelled, and, of course, I hope I'm dead wrong and Smoltz somehow is inpired as hell to pitch well vs. the Yanks what may be one of his last games ever. 2) Buchholz - Well, having seen him in a few starts, it's easier to understand why Theo Epstein was offering Buchholz in possible trades to Toronto and Seattle - and, probably other teams. Buchholz hasn't progressed as much as people thought and perhaps that's why the Sox left him in Pawtucket for the first half: They might have wanted to hide his mediocrity and project an impression that he was better than he is -- so that teams would have interest in him at the trading deadline. Whatever it is, Buchholz seems to have three big problems: 1) His fastaball command is lousy. (Plus his fastball is "straight" and very hittable, making location even more critical). 2) He's not throwing his curve, which, two years ago, was one of his best pitches - along with his top-notch changeup. What's up with his curve? I have no idea and no Boston sportswriters seem to ask these basic questions. 3) He has a MAJOR attitude problem that leads to a lack of confidence on the mound and hurts his focus and performance. Buchholz doesen't even sound confident in his interviews with NESN between games. As others have noted, when anything goes wrong in the game, he seems to over-react and panic somehow, and things get worse quickly. Buchholz needs more work with his confidence or he'll be unable to improve. I hope he's getting the help right now!
3) Penny - I've covered this. He's always been mediocre at best, and, outright BAD in a number of games. The word is he gets worse in the second half of seasons. That's NOT good. I hope he's out of the rotation at some point, but, maybe he'll surprise me. 4) Wakefield - He is now recovering from a new ailment - sciatica that is affecting his left hamstring. Wakefield told reporters that, when he was in Texas with the team recently, he could barely walk. It sounds like it may require additional weeks for him to even try pitching effectively. Even if he recovers fast, Wakefield has broken down the past two years, and, probably should not be counted on heading into the playoffs.
With Matsuzaka trying to regain strength in his shoulder and arm in Florida and potentially unavailable until September, what other pitchers will the Sox be able to call on?
Hopefully, one of their minor-league pitchers will step into the void and do well.
One last point: A few members of the highly-touted bullpen have quietly become unreliable. Tops on my list of worries is Ramon Ramirez, who has been giving up too many during a bad stretch that has now lasted close to six weeks, it seems. What's going on with him? Is he working with John Farrell to address his problems? When he comes in now, he is a different pitcher than earlier in the year. He leaves many pitches that get too much of the plate (and, get hit, mostly) Manny Delcarmen is in one of his inconsistent periods. I've never understood why Delcarmen's curve ball, which has excellent movement, cannot be used more often and with more effectiveness more consistently. Hideki Okajima, while still decent, has given up more hits in the past month or so.
Then, of course, there is Jonathan Papelbon, who, somehow keeps clinging to a record that does not reflect how he's looked on the mound. I keep waiting for him to blow more saves. I won't repeat my rants on this topic, but, Papelbon's fastball is simply not as good as it used to be. It can be excellent at times, and, to his credit, Papelbon seems to save some of his best heaters for big moments when strikeouts are needed to end a threat. However, he used to have "giddy-up" all the time. Now, he doesn't and hitters foul off pitches all the time OR get hits OR draw walks. A few years ago, Papelbon could throw his electric fastball down the middle and hitters usually swung and missed. Now, he struggles with his location in most outings and struggles to throw just enough well-placed fastballs to survive. I give him credit, but, something is wrong with his arm or he wouldn't still feel he HAD to use this "new motion" he refers to. What worries me is whether Papelbon will be able to repeat these "borderline" performances in September or in the playoffs. I will not be shocked if he starts pitching worse in the last weeks of the season. He has grown arm-weary in other seasons at season's end, and, this time, he'll be tiring after not pitching as well as he used to all year.
Martinez is off to a great start. He looks better at the plate than most of the other Sox players. He has a good stance - like he's going to uncoil on contact. Plus, he seems to have a good eye and watches the ball ALL the way in better than some of his teammates do.
So, while VMart is a terrific plus, it seems the rest of the team is undergoing a stressful time waiting for David Ortiz to face the media to talk about his past use of steroids. Big Papi has mysteriously waited much longer than anticipated to make any statement. Last Thursday, following a day game in Baltimore, Ortiz said he'd have more to say as soon as he got some questions answered from the MLB Players Association. Let's hope he does this before arriving in New York before Thursday, when the Sox face the Yankees for a four-game series. The fans and media in NY are unlikely to make this an easy weekend for Ortiz.
In the meantime, the pitching - once viewed as the team's steadiest strength - is suddenly showing a number of serious weaknesses.
1) Smoltz - I've given my views on him. If, somehow, he survives more than five innings against the Yankees, I will consider it a minor miracle. I just don't think Smoltz can last at all against all the Yanks' great fastball hitters when, he now has one of the worst, weakest fastballs I've seen in a long time. I predict he will be shelled, and, of course, I hope I'm dead wrong and Smoltz somehow is inpired as hell to pitch well vs. the Yanks what may be one of his last games ever. 2) Buchholz - Well, having seen him in a few starts, it's easier to understand why Theo Epstein was offering Buchholz in possible trades to Toronto and Seattle - and, probably other teams. Buchholz hasn't progressed as much as people thought and perhaps that's why the Sox left him in Pawtucket for the first half: They might have wanted to hide his mediocrity and project an impression that he was better than he is -- so that teams would have interest in him at the trading deadline. Whatever it is, Buchholz seems to have three big problems: 1) His fastaball command is lousy. (Plus his fastball is "straight" and very hittable, making location even more critical). 2) He's not throwing his curve, which, two years ago, was one of his best pitches - along with his top-notch changeup. What's up with his curve? I have no idea and no Boston sportswriters seem to ask these basic questions. 3) He has a MAJOR attitude problem that leads to a lack of confidence on the mound and hurts his focus and performance. Buchholz doesen't even sound confident in his interviews with NESN between games. As others have noted, when anything goes wrong in the game, he seems to over-react and panic somehow, and things get worse quickly. Buchholz needs more work with his confidence or he'll be unable to improve. I hope he's getting the help right now!
3) Penny - I've covered this. He's always been mediocre at best, and, outright BAD in a number of games. The word is he gets worse in the second half of seasons. That's NOT good. I hope he's out of the rotation at some point, but, maybe he'll surprise me. 4) Wakefield - He is now recovering from a new ailment - sciatica that is affecting his left hamstring. Wakefield told reporters that, when he was in Texas with the team recently, he could barely walk. It sounds like it may require additional weeks for him to even try pitching effectively. Even if he recovers fast, Wakefield has broken down the past two years, and, probably should not be counted on heading into the playoffs.
With Matsuzaka trying to regain strength in his shoulder and arm in Florida and potentially unavailable until September, what other pitchers will the Sox be able to call on?
Hopefully, one of their minor-league pitchers will step into the void and do well.
One last point: A few members of the highly-touted bullpen have quietly become unreliable. Tops on my list of worries is Ramon Ramirez, who has been giving up too many during a bad stretch that has now lasted close to six weeks, it seems. What's going on with him? Is he working with John Farrell to address his problems? When he comes in now, he is a different pitcher than earlier in the year. He leaves many pitches that get too much of the plate (and, get hit, mostly) Manny Delcarmen is in one of his inconsistent periods. I've never understood why Delcarmen's curve ball, which has excellent movement, cannot be used more often and with more effectiveness more consistently. Hideki Okajima, while still decent, has given up more hits in the past month or so.
Then, of course, there is Jonathan Papelbon, who, somehow keeps clinging to a record that does not reflect how he's looked on the mound. I keep waiting for him to blow more saves. I won't repeat my rants on this topic, but, Papelbon's fastball is simply not as good as it used to be. It can be excellent at times, and, to his credit, Papelbon seems to save some of his best heaters for big moments when strikeouts are needed to end a threat. However, he used to have "giddy-up" all the time. Now, he doesn't and hitters foul off pitches all the time OR get hits OR draw walks. A few years ago, Papelbon could throw his electric fastball down the middle and hitters usually swung and missed. Now, he struggles with his location in most outings and struggles to throw just enough well-placed fastballs to survive. I give him credit, but, something is wrong with his arm or he wouldn't still feel he HAD to use this "new motion" he refers to. What worries me is whether Papelbon will be able to repeat these "borderline" performances in September or in the playoffs. I will not be shocked if he starts pitching worse in the last weeks of the season. He has grown arm-weary in other seasons at season's end, and, this time, he'll be tiring after not pitching as well as he used to all year.
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