As Victor Leaves, Sox Fade Further

Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein apparently remains in denial about his team's hitting ability. Or, perhaps he's aware of the hitting deficit and he's preparing for another "bridge year" in 2011.

Either way, the Red Sox just allowed the team to get a lot worse by letting free agent catcher Victor Martinez get away. He was one of the best hitters on the team.

Worsening matters, the Sox could have easily signed Martinez to a new deal. Martinez, unlike some free agents, had expressed a desire to stay in Boston. He also happened to be a leader in the clubhouse.

Martinez was one of the only hitters on the team - except Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - who could hit for contact. Victor could also hit for power, and, I'd say that only he and Youkilis could hit for both. Now, with Adrian Beltre almost certainly out the door, the team faces a tremendous void in hitting. Signing free agent Jason Werth would not make up for Victor's bat.

That's what's bad here: Even if the Sox "replace" Martinez' hitting, they'll still be short. The 2010 Red Sox - despite what many baseball pundits said - lacked the kind of hitting you need to win a championship. Yeah, I heard repeatedly that the team was among MLB's best in "runs scored" for the first half of the season. My reaction: It was a misleading stat. The team bashed the ball vs. average pitchers and often couldn't hit better pitchers. They hit fastballs but often suffered vs. pitchers with good breaking or off-speed stuff. When Pedroia, and, then, Youkilis went down with injuries, the team's weak hitting was more exposed.

Bottom-line: Since Manny Ramirez's departure in the middle of the 2008 season, the Red Sox hitting has declined, dipping below what's necessary for the team to advance in the playoffs. People still don't seem to realize how special the Ramirez/Ortiz combination was in the 2003-07 period: They were like Gehrig and Ruth -- a unique strength that helped carry the Sox to the championships. By contrast, have baseball writers and fans already forgotten how pitifully the Sox hit in the 2009 playoffs - when the Angels swept them?

How did this happen? Why hasn't management found more good hitters for its lineup? I think part of it is that Epstein and Company have tried to convince the fan base that "things are OK" - when they're not. Last year, for example, we heard endlessly about how well "substitute" players like Daniel Nava and Billy Hall performed when, the team really played above its talent level and gutted out wins. In reality, the team's hitting was not as good as others - such as the Yankees or Phillies, and, certainly no better than teams like the Blue Jays or the Rays.

If you go up and down the Sox lineup, I think Epstein and others have some degree of denial about almost every player. Jacoby Ellsbury? He's been overrated by everybody, when, he still hasn't shown he can hit different kinds of pitches and wait long enough to make contact more often. Despite his speed, he's a very "average" leadoff hitter because of his "average" hitting.

Pedroia? A good hitter who can grind out at-bats as well as anyone on the team. He CAN hit for contact and hit a variety of pitches. Youkilis? The best hitter on the team - period. Ortiz? A hitter in decline who covered up his deteriorating skills by belting home runs fairly often. Ortiz is a very good "mistake pitch" hitter, but he can no longer hit for contact well. Many pitchers can fool him with breaking stuff. It was crazy to pay him $12.5 million for 2011 while choosing to let Victor sign a reasonable deal with the Tigers.

Theo got incredibly lucky with Adrian Beltre. Yes, he hoped Beltre would hit better in Fenway in a year before free agency, but, Beltre was off the charts! Beltre carried the team for good chunks of the season, belting doubles and home runs off the Monster. Without Beltre's exceptional season, the Sox would have finished in much more mediocre fashion and been further exposed.

What other hitters are even on this team? JD Drew? Theo's denial about Drew suggests he has an unusual "delusion" about this particular player. Drew didn't even put up his usual "average" numbers in 2010. He was simply bad - along with his regular bad habits -- failing to hit with men on base, hitting endless "dribblers" to the second baseman and choosing to be picky at the plate rather than swinging at borderline strikes and getting more hits to help his team.

Marco Scutaro? He hit decently last year and showed a lot of guts to keep playing despite a bad injury. (Why didn't the team sit him down more in the end of the season rather than risk further injury?) Theo got Mike Cameron for last year despite his weak hitting. Cameron missed most of the season, but, he would have been unable to add much punch, anyway.

There is no need to examine any other players. Epstein, owner Johne Henry and CEO Larry Lucchino must snap out of their denial about the team's hitting. The Red Sox had a fairly weak hitting lineup with Victor Martinez. Now, it is very weak. (Let's not forget the team lost Mike Lowell too, who has been a reliable clutch hitter for years here)

I fear that Theo and his baseball operations team are so "stat-happy" that they've lost sight of the critical, intangible, human factors in making a good baseball team. I believe that "clutch hitting" does exist -- despite Bill James' "study" or whoever concluded, ridiculously, that it's wrong to think some hitters are much better in the clutch. How do you explain Derek Jeter's hitting in late innings vs. the Red Sox then? I digress, but, my point is you can't build a lineup based on stats. Does Theo want a lineup filled with JD Drews? God, that's a nightmare I cannot face. I don't care what the baseball geeks might say: Drew is one of the most over-rated players I've ever seen in my life. Yet Theo Epstein still thinks he's terrific.

I bring this up because Theo had better wake up and admit the team needs "different" players if it is to return to the glory days of 2004 and 2007. I mean we need a "star" player or two back here. It was Manny Ramirez - as much as any other Sox player - who helped bring us the two World Series championships. It's not a coincidence that Manny was signed by Dan Duquette - not Theo Epstein, who would never sign a guy to a big, long contract like Manny's in Boston. Oh, and, yes, Duquette signed Pedro Martinez to an expensive contract too. Manny and Pedro brought exciting, unforgettable baseball moments to Boston that will be remembered far longer than anything JD Drew has done.

You need stars, Theo! Ever since the Sox failed to sign Mark Teixeira, they've been in a slump in signing big-name stars here. Let's hope it ends soon. Theo's challenge now will be to sign more than one star in the next year or two because Victor Martinez' departure has left the team's hitting deficit much deeper. Bring on Adrian Gonzalez.

Red Sox Should Not Extend David Ortiz

It makes no sense for the Red Sox to sign David Ortiz to any deal longer than one year. I mean NO sense. So, if Ortiz, in the next day or two, reiterates his current stand - that he wants anything longer than the team's one-year option the team can offer him, the Red Sox must simply say "No."


In my view, it'd be preferable for the Red Sox to cut ties with Ortiz now simply because his abilities have begun to fade noticeably, and, it's usually wise to part with such a player -- even a legendary star like Big Papi. Especially when that player would earn $12.5 million in 2011. I have the feeling that, in 2010, the Sox got about the best Ortiz has left in him. He hit 32 HRs, knocked in 102 RBIs and batted .270.


Though I love Ortiz and view him as the player most responsible for bringing the the Sox a championship in 2004, I can point to the same evidence as any serious Sox observers. In 2004, what made Ortiz scary was that he could hit for power and contact. Now, approaching 2011, he's become primarily a "mistake pitch" hitter. He can nail fastballs that catch too much of the plate, but, he cannot drive different pitches on the corners for line drives to all parts of the field like he used to. He "can be pitched to" much more easily, and, is far more vulnerable to breaking pitches. Ortiz hits lefthanded pitchers strikingly worse than he did before.


So, why have all of Boston's baseball writers and broadcast journalists seemed to conclude that, of course, the Red Sox should give Ortiz his option year, and, some have supported considering an extension for him? Well, it's unsurprising, in many ways because Boston baseball media often don't take stands that are the least bit unconventional, unpredictable or original. In this case, supporting a tough stance vs. Ortiz would also bring a bit of conflict and controversy into play. Boston's baseball writers tend to stay in a safe "pack."

Yes, Big Papi's departure would force the Red Sox to replace his bat in the lineup. Yes, they'd have to have a few options in mind at this point ......but, the team should have thought about all that by now. If the 2010 Sox were willing to look toward the future, why can't they do so in 2011? Investing in a younger player in his prime as DH makes more sense than paying such a huge salary to an older, fading player. (Most other designated hitters - including Vladimir Guerrero and Hideki Matsui - earn salaries about half that of Ortiz).

Why should the team pay its aging DH one of the highest annual salaries given that he's in decline? Why should the team plan on keeping him around any more than one season given the erosion of Ortiz's skills in the past two years. I'm not saying Ortiz had "bad" seasons in 2009 or 2010. He ended with good numbers in 2010, but one can see what's on the horizon.

The Red Sox, in recent years, have sometimes made unwise moves, when it comes to contracts. The team gave Josh Beckett an extension before it had to, and Beckett has not performed up to expectations since then. The team chose to over-pay John Lackey, and his 2010 performance was mediocre. The team over-paid JD Drew, giving him a $13 million annual salary that he never earned and has never matched in performance.

If the Sox are trying to build a young team for the future - with its top-notch pitchers and players like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - why do they feel obligated to keep Ortiz any more than one year at such a high salary?

The answer is: they don't need to. They cannot keep Big Papi purely for what he's given the team in the past. No matter when Ortiz leaves, his contributions in 2004 and beyond will never be forgotten.