OK. Will someone please explain the logic behind the Red Sox continuing to start John Smoltz when he's demonstrated he cannot pitch well this season?
Today, it was painful to watch John Smoltz, in his 6th start, again pitch so poorly and display the same vulnerabilities. I just watched Oriole slugger Nick Markakis, for the second time, take advantage of a very poorly-placed Smoltz fastball (It was more like a beachball!) and belt it for a home-run. I couldn't believe Smoltz left two fastballs up in the zone to Markakis. That takes some BAD pitching. I've heard pitchers talk endlessly about the importance of "fastball command." Well, Smoltz's fastball now lacks velocity, movement and location. It's terrible. In addition, his breaking pitches quite often have "hung" in the zone and been hit hard.
This is certainly not what Theo Epstein and company hoped for in signing Smoltz, but, that brings me to the main point.
Why are Epstein and the Red Sox so hung up on "giving Smoltz a chance"? Listen, I completely respect Smoltz. I recall him shutting down the Sox with his slider a couple of seasons ago. However, the Sox' apparent decision to keep putting him out there with the blind hope (or, fantasy) that somehow, he'll magically recapture his skills seems not only misguided, but outright damaging to the team's chances to make the playoffs. In fact, it's indisputable that Smoltz has already hurt the team in his starts. The team has lost five of the six games Smoltz started and he has worn out the bullpen.
So, what is it going to take, Theo? I'm afraid the Sox are being stubborn on this one. Terry Francona, before today's game, was urging everyone to be patient with Smoltz. One of this Red Sox team's few weaknesses in recent years has been to stay too long with a non-performing player. Remember Francona repeatedly bringing Eric Gagne in? How about Javier Lopez or Alan Embree, when he got bad a few years back? Tim Wakefield at various times?
Yet, at the same time, the team - along with baseball writers and fans - have shown much more tolerance with Smoltz than with Daisuke Matsuzaka, who, despite his 18 - 3 record last year, was dealt with quickly when he didn't perform this year and reassigned to strengthen his shoulder in Florida most of the summer.
I fear this Smoltz "experiment" has become some strange "personal" matter for Epstein, Francona or other Sox officials. Smoltz, after all, is 42 and coming back from surgery. They want him to succeed so badly, it seems, that they're willing to assume the risk of hurting the team quite badly to prove they're right.
It's time to replace Smoltz in the rotation and move on.
Of course, the largest area I feel the Red Sox must face reality with is their lack of hitting. I think sportswriters and fans are in the same denial as the team about just how weak this team's offense is. I ask you: Who is a consistent hitter who can "carry" this team for a spell? Who is a consistent power hitter? A consistent "contact hitter"? The team has a lot of fastball hitters, but, who can hit breaking stuff? It's not a coincidence that SO MANY young pitchers, who have never faced the Sox before, have shut them down easily.
I feel the argument to land a high-calibre player like Victor Martinez or Adrian Gonzalez has become very hard to refute. Opponents of a major move express worry about who such a new star player might replace in the line-up, but, I think one has to face this line-up is a losing one.
I realize, as I write this, the Sox are right behind the Yankees, but, they're getting worse while the Yanks and other teams are getting better. Plus, isn't it hard to imagine this lineup making it into the playoffs and World Series?
I know it's oversimplifying, but, the Sox have not come close to filling the tremendous void left by the absence of Manny Ramirez!! If this team still had Manny, I'd feel better about its offense, wouldn't you?
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Sox Hitting Woes Continue: Help Needed
Weak Hitting Catches Up to Red Sox
OK. When are the Boston baseball writers - and many fans - going to come out of their denial about the Red Sox hitting? Maybe the past few days will help convince people that, yes, the Sox need to add hitting if they want to compete with the Yankees, Rays or anyone else this fall.
Tonight, the Sox made Tommy Hunter look like Roy Halliday - scratching out only four hits against the very young Ranger starter, who they clobbered last year. Lately, the Sox cannot hit any pitchers, it seems. No one in the lineup has looked great, but, Drew, Ellsbury, Varitek and Green have really struggled.
In the past day or two, some have discussed the need for more production from the leadoff hitter - whether it's been Ellsbury or Drew. I must say I do not think Ellsbury is ready to perform well in that role. Why? It's very simple: He doesn't take nearly enough pitches, and, doesn't walk nearly enough. Plus, and this is huge: He is not a good "contact hitter." Ellsbury, at this young point in his career, swings early - and commits early - at the incoming pitch. He needs to wait longer and see the ball longer if he is to become a better hitter.
Can Ellsbury improve enough to be a good leadoff hitter in the second half of 2009? I doubt it, but, I hope so.
The Sox are simply expecting too much out of certain hitters. David Ortiz is an example. He's still not what he used to be, and it's probably unlikely to reach that level. Tonight, for example, when he came up against Hunter in the 6th inning with Youkilis on 2nd base, (Youkilis had just doubled in Pedroia to get the Sox within one run), Ortiz got a hittable pitch down the middle and popped it up, ending the threat. Ortiz has hit so many popups and harmless flyballs this year that it's ridicolous. In the past, Big Papi might have drilled that pitch for an extra base hit.
I won't go on. Drew needs an adrenalin injection or something to get more aggressive at the plate. He appears so indifferent as he watches strike after strike hit one of the corners.
Anyway, it's time for Theo and company to get realistic about this line-up - by adding to it!
Pitching, by Accident, Just Got Better
Tim Wakefield is on the disabled list, forcing the Sox to call up Clay Buchholz. I think Buchholz' mere presence on the staff makes the Sox a bit better - by forcing Epstein, Farrell and Francona to compare his stuff to the pitches thrown by Penny and Smoltz -- and maybe decide Buchholz deserves a few chances, or, a regular spot in the rotation. I just wish Buchholz didn't have to start by facing the Rangers lineup tomorrow because they have a few very tough hitters.
Tonight's game, in my view, is perhaps the best recent evidence of the Sox need to get a hitter at the Trading Deadline. Why? The Sox ace, Josh Beckett pitched tonight - and pitched quite well, but the Sox couldn't put any runs on the board -- so, his quality pitching ended up being irrelevant. You can't win with pitching only, Theo, no?
OK. When are the Boston baseball writers - and many fans - going to come out of their denial about the Red Sox hitting? Maybe the past few days will help convince people that, yes, the Sox need to add hitting if they want to compete with the Yankees, Rays or anyone else this fall.
Tonight, the Sox made Tommy Hunter look like Roy Halliday - scratching out only four hits against the very young Ranger starter, who they clobbered last year. Lately, the Sox cannot hit any pitchers, it seems. No one in the lineup has looked great, but, Drew, Ellsbury, Varitek and Green have really struggled.
In the past day or two, some have discussed the need for more production from the leadoff hitter - whether it's been Ellsbury or Drew. I must say I do not think Ellsbury is ready to perform well in that role. Why? It's very simple: He doesn't take nearly enough pitches, and, doesn't walk nearly enough. Plus, and this is huge: He is not a good "contact hitter." Ellsbury, at this young point in his career, swings early - and commits early - at the incoming pitch. He needs to wait longer and see the ball longer if he is to become a better hitter.
Can Ellsbury improve enough to be a good leadoff hitter in the second half of 2009? I doubt it, but, I hope so.
The Sox are simply expecting too much out of certain hitters. David Ortiz is an example. He's still not what he used to be, and it's probably unlikely to reach that level. Tonight, for example, when he came up against Hunter in the 6th inning with Youkilis on 2nd base, (Youkilis had just doubled in Pedroia to get the Sox within one run), Ortiz got a hittable pitch down the middle and popped it up, ending the threat. Ortiz has hit so many popups and harmless flyballs this year that it's ridicolous. In the past, Big Papi might have drilled that pitch for an extra base hit.
I won't go on. Drew needs an adrenalin injection or something to get more aggressive at the plate. He appears so indifferent as he watches strike after strike hit one of the corners.
Anyway, it's time for Theo and company to get realistic about this line-up - by adding to it!
Pitching, by Accident, Just Got Better
Tim Wakefield is on the disabled list, forcing the Sox to call up Clay Buchholz. I think Buchholz' mere presence on the staff makes the Sox a bit better - by forcing Epstein, Farrell and Francona to compare his stuff to the pitches thrown by Penny and Smoltz -- and maybe decide Buchholz deserves a few chances, or, a regular spot in the rotation. I just wish Buchholz didn't have to start by facing the Rangers lineup tomorrow because they have a few very tough hitters.
Tonight's game, in my view, is perhaps the best recent evidence of the Sox need to get a hitter at the Trading Deadline. Why? The Sox ace, Josh Beckett pitched tonight - and pitched quite well, but the Sox couldn't put any runs on the board -- so, his quality pitching ended up being irrelevant. You can't win with pitching only, Theo, no?
Monday, July 20, 2009
Sox Need to Make Changes for Second Half
It'll be Decision Time soon for Theo Epstein and his team. The Red Sox must decide whether to make deals at the Trading Deadline - and, if not, whether to shake up the team's pitching rotation and hitting lineup for the second half.
I, for one, still feel this Sox team is a bit over-rated. That they played a little over their heads in the first half and found unusual ways to win despite injuries, the two-month slump of David Ortiz and some weak hitting at times.
Pitching Changes Possible
it seems at least more likely there will be changes in Red Sox pitching rotation. I hope and expect Clay Buchholz to replace Brad Penny in the starting rotation. I hope the Sox are able to trade Penny at the deadline because they can insert a pitcher with a better chance to make a quality start every time he takes the mound. (Buchholz)
What I hope sealed this deal (in my fantasy projection) is Penny's most recent poor outing, when he gave up six runs in five innings. That outing followed several other mediocre outings by Penny. Why stick with a guy who has been "average" much of the time when Buchholz has proven - most recently at Pawtucket - that he can excell?
Who knows what other changes might come to the rotation? If the Red Sox are not at least thinking seriously about reversing their plans to leave John Smoltz in the rotation all summer, they should begin reflecting now. Tonight, in his fifth start, Smoltz, after looking decent for a few innings, imploded in the sixth and gave up three home runs. From watching Smoltz, it seems he is almost unaware of how hittable some of his pitches are -- whether it's his slower fastball or one of his breaking pitches that seem to "hang" badly on occasion. Any way you look at it, Smoltz does not look intimidating out there; instead, he looks like a old, veteran pitcher who's throwing a lot of "soft" stuff because he's lost confidence in his fastball.
Granted, maybe Smoltz can still turn it around. He's had flashes of his old self = particularly when his slider has had real bite to it. However, the Sox cannot be "sentimental" with Smoltz. He's not looked really good in any outings, except one in which he pitched for a few innings of a game that was eventually cancelled against the Orioles. Opposing hitters are batting .303 against him. If he doesn't show more soon, I think they should at least plan for the contingency of releasing him or using him in the bullpen. Last point: Smoltz seems a bit in denial himself about the quality of his pitching. He keeps saying after games that he's felt good and that hitters have, at least sometimes, hit good pitches.
So, I think the Sox should start Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield and the fifth should be Smoltz for only a relatively short while longer. If he turns it around, great. If not, I'd re-insert Dice-K or whoever else is next in line -- Michael Bowden?
Hitting Changes Possible
It seems the signs everywhere suggest the Sox feel they're "all set" with hitting - and that baffles me. I know some of their stats compare well vs. other teams, but, my observations - watching games - tell a different story. I see Jason Bay in this long slump, and my reaction is that Bay was never as good as he played in his torrid first half - I expect he'll hit better, but I think Bay, ultimately, is a good hitter who is occasionally very good -- but, rarely outstanding. Plus, Bay cannot hit breaking pitches well and that comes back to haunt him a lot. Ortiz is basically back, but not all the way, by any means. He, also, is now a good hitter - not a great hitter -- so that hurts the team, especially without Manny Ramirez around. Youkilis and Pedroia have both had ups and downs, but, I think you can count on them as performing solidly - even if neither has a season as stellar as 2008. Who's left? J D Drew? He's had a poor year, overall. He's batting about 240. He has hit poorly in the clutch and his failure to take a more aggressive approach with men on base has hurt the team badly - again. He's a very over-rated player. Mike Lowell has been solid when he has played - but, he's more fragile due to his hip injury and he cannot run. Jason Varitek is much improved over last year, but remains a weak hitter, especially against breaking pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury is an over-rated hitter, in general. He often has at bats when he simply doesn't look good. He has a weird snappy swing that looks bad often -- He doesn't wait on the pitch and swing through it... I don't have much confidence he can be a first-rate lead-off hitter when he continues to lack an ability to get a walk.
That leaves shortstops Jed Lowrie, who needs time to recover from surgery, and Nick Green, who has slumped badly of late.
Overall, is this a lineup that even compares to the Yankees hitting? No way. No way. Red Sox fans are dreaming if they think our lineup is that good.
I think if there is any way the Red Sox can improve their hitting - either by acquiring a much better hitter to serve as a bench/reserve player OR miraculously acquire a top-notch shortstop from a team, they should do it. Either way, the Sox need more punch in their lineup if they're going to compete with the Yankees and the Rays. You cannot win a title with only pitching. We learned the need for balance in 2004 and 2007 -- and, we had Manny Ramirez for those title runs. Let's face it. The Red Sox have not come close to replacing Manny's hitting in their line-up.
I, for one, still feel this Sox team is a bit over-rated. That they played a little over their heads in the first half and found unusual ways to win despite injuries, the two-month slump of David Ortiz and some weak hitting at times.
Pitching Changes Possible
it seems at least more likely there will be changes in Red Sox pitching rotation. I hope and expect Clay Buchholz to replace Brad Penny in the starting rotation. I hope the Sox are able to trade Penny at the deadline because they can insert a pitcher with a better chance to make a quality start every time he takes the mound. (Buchholz)
What I hope sealed this deal (in my fantasy projection) is Penny's most recent poor outing, when he gave up six runs in five innings. That outing followed several other mediocre outings by Penny. Why stick with a guy who has been "average" much of the time when Buchholz has proven - most recently at Pawtucket - that he can excell?
Who knows what other changes might come to the rotation? If the Red Sox are not at least thinking seriously about reversing their plans to leave John Smoltz in the rotation all summer, they should begin reflecting now. Tonight, in his fifth start, Smoltz, after looking decent for a few innings, imploded in the sixth and gave up three home runs. From watching Smoltz, it seems he is almost unaware of how hittable some of his pitches are -- whether it's his slower fastball or one of his breaking pitches that seem to "hang" badly on occasion. Any way you look at it, Smoltz does not look intimidating out there; instead, he looks like a old, veteran pitcher who's throwing a lot of "soft" stuff because he's lost confidence in his fastball.
Granted, maybe Smoltz can still turn it around. He's had flashes of his old self = particularly when his slider has had real bite to it. However, the Sox cannot be "sentimental" with Smoltz. He's not looked really good in any outings, except one in which he pitched for a few innings of a game that was eventually cancelled against the Orioles. Opposing hitters are batting .303 against him. If he doesn't show more soon, I think they should at least plan for the contingency of releasing him or using him in the bullpen. Last point: Smoltz seems a bit in denial himself about the quality of his pitching. He keeps saying after games that he's felt good and that hitters have, at least sometimes, hit good pitches.
So, I think the Sox should start Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Wakefield and the fifth should be Smoltz for only a relatively short while longer. If he turns it around, great. If not, I'd re-insert Dice-K or whoever else is next in line -- Michael Bowden?
Hitting Changes Possible
It seems the signs everywhere suggest the Sox feel they're "all set" with hitting - and that baffles me. I know some of their stats compare well vs. other teams, but, my observations - watching games - tell a different story. I see Jason Bay in this long slump, and my reaction is that Bay was never as good as he played in his torrid first half - I expect he'll hit better, but I think Bay, ultimately, is a good hitter who is occasionally very good -- but, rarely outstanding. Plus, Bay cannot hit breaking pitches well and that comes back to haunt him a lot. Ortiz is basically back, but not all the way, by any means. He, also, is now a good hitter - not a great hitter -- so that hurts the team, especially without Manny Ramirez around. Youkilis and Pedroia have both had ups and downs, but, I think you can count on them as performing solidly - even if neither has a season as stellar as 2008. Who's left? J D Drew? He's had a poor year, overall. He's batting about 240. He has hit poorly in the clutch and his failure to take a more aggressive approach with men on base has hurt the team badly - again. He's a very over-rated player. Mike Lowell has been solid when he has played - but, he's more fragile due to his hip injury and he cannot run. Jason Varitek is much improved over last year, but remains a weak hitter, especially against breaking pitches. Jacoby Ellsbury is an over-rated hitter, in general. He often has at bats when he simply doesn't look good. He has a weird snappy swing that looks bad often -- He doesn't wait on the pitch and swing through it... I don't have much confidence he can be a first-rate lead-off hitter when he continues to lack an ability to get a walk.
That leaves shortstops Jed Lowrie, who needs time to recover from surgery, and Nick Green, who has slumped badly of late.
Overall, is this a lineup that even compares to the Yankees hitting? No way. No way. Red Sox fans are dreaming if they think our lineup is that good.
I think if there is any way the Red Sox can improve their hitting - either by acquiring a much better hitter to serve as a bench/reserve player OR miraculously acquire a top-notch shortstop from a team, they should do it. Either way, the Sox need more punch in their lineup if they're going to compete with the Yankees and the Rays. You cannot win a title with only pitching. We learned the need for balance in 2004 and 2007 -- and, we had Manny Ramirez for those title runs. Let's face it. The Red Sox have not come close to replacing Manny's hitting in their line-up.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Papelbon Looked Much Better Tonight
OK, even after what I wrote yesterday about Jonathan Papelbon, I have to acknowledge that he pitched great tonight! Tonight, after a masterful performance by Jon Lester over eight innings, Papelbon came in to preserve a 1-0 lead in the ninth inning. As NESN analyst Dennis Eckersley pointed out, it seemed that Papelbon was particularly focused on the task at hand tonight. He seemed to feel the fragility of the 1-0 lead - and he performed as well as he has all year. His fastball was moving again. A handful of his pitches reached 97 mph - a level Papelbon does not usually reach. He was moving his heater inside, outside and up in the zone to make batters swing. The Boston Globe's Tony Maserotti just commented on NESN that he thought Papelbon tonight looked like he has the past few years - at the top of his game, throwing with a bit more velocity and requiring little time (and less pitches) to get three outs.
So, how does one explain the Papelbon of tonight vs. Wednesday night? Tom Caron of NESN just remarked that Papelbon apparently didn't get his normal time to warm up in Wednesday night's game. Who knows?
I think one aspect is clear: Papelbon often pitches better when he has rested the night before. When he throws in back-to-back games, he's sometimes a bit less sharp and some of his fastballs are more likely to have a bit less zip. I agree with what Maserotti just said: That Papelbon is much more effective when his velocity is a bit higher --- 96, let's say, rather than 93 or 94, the speed of a fair number of his fastballs this year. Plus, for whatever the reason, some nights this year, he has the "late life" and other nights, he does not.
I still stand on my points from last night, but, after tonight, I'd add this: The Red Sox should treat Papelbon with extra care and precautions and give him as much rest as possible. The disparity in his outings - highlighted by his brilliance tonight - underscores that point.
So, how does one explain the Papelbon of tonight vs. Wednesday night? Tom Caron of NESN just remarked that Papelbon apparently didn't get his normal time to warm up in Wednesday night's game. Who knows?
I think one aspect is clear: Papelbon often pitches better when he has rested the night before. When he throws in back-to-back games, he's sometimes a bit less sharp and some of his fastballs are more likely to have a bit less zip. I agree with what Maserotti just said: That Papelbon is much more effective when his velocity is a bit higher --- 96, let's say, rather than 93 or 94, the speed of a fair number of his fastballs this year. Plus, for whatever the reason, some nights this year, he has the "late life" and other nights, he does not.
I still stand on my points from last night, but, after tonight, I'd add this: The Red Sox should treat Papelbon with extra care and precautions and give him as much rest as possible. The disparity in his outings - highlighted by his brilliance tonight - underscores that point.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Will Papelbon Be Strong in October?
Maybe I'm in a tiny minority of fans worried about Jonathan Papelbon, but, he still does not seem himself on the mound - and, the season is half over.
I've written about my observations of Papelbon a number of times on this blog. Most often, I've written that Papelbon didn't have the same "late life" on his fastball this year. His control has not been nearly as good. He has walked far more hitters. He has thrown far more pitches in many appearances, as hitters have made frequent contact, fouling off pitches and making flyball and line drive outs quite often. However, a few times, just when I've been ready to conclude Papelbon is hurt or has a serious problem, he's had a good outing - featuring swinging strikeouts. This had reassured me. Plus, I read - as you did - that Papelbon had changed his pitching motion - to put more weight on his legs and reduce strain on his arm. This made one speculate that he was adjusting to the new motion.
Yet, after last night's outing - my concern about Papelbon is back - and now, I'm wondering if he will have the same recurring problems all season, or, very possibly, get worse.
Last night, I watched Papelbon barely survive a long 9th inning against the Oakland Athletics. It was familiar. He gave up a walk, a single, and, then, a smash hit to center that looked like it would be a home run, but it stayed in the yard - a sacrifice fly - due to very strong incoming wind. He then got a strikeout, gave up a single and struck out the last batter.
As often, Papelbon was unable to get his "straight"-looking fastball by some hitters. (In past years, he has fired strikes - even down the middle - easily by hitters because of his "giddy-up."
What's going on with Papelbon? Is his arm worn out? Did he change his motion out of necessity due to worries about potential strain to his arm? Do the Red Sox expect him to be effective all season? Maybe one of their chief motivations to get Daniel Bard up to the big leagues fast this season was to be a backpup to Papelbon THIS year instead of in future seasons.
I don't know, but, right now Papelbon does not look strong and refreshed out there. He looks like he could easily wear down further by September -and, by then, his fastballs might be even more hittable.
Ramon Ramirez has to work his way out of a little pitching slump. He still is not "right" - He's throwing balls out over the plate too often. Justin Masterson has had two bad outings. The bullpen is finally showing a bit of vulnerability, and it only underlines the Sox need to bolster their only real need for improvement - the bottom part of their hitting lineup.
I've written about my observations of Papelbon a number of times on this blog. Most often, I've written that Papelbon didn't have the same "late life" on his fastball this year. His control has not been nearly as good. He has walked far more hitters. He has thrown far more pitches in many appearances, as hitters have made frequent contact, fouling off pitches and making flyball and line drive outs quite often. However, a few times, just when I've been ready to conclude Papelbon is hurt or has a serious problem, he's had a good outing - featuring swinging strikeouts. This had reassured me. Plus, I read - as you did - that Papelbon had changed his pitching motion - to put more weight on his legs and reduce strain on his arm. This made one speculate that he was adjusting to the new motion.
Yet, after last night's outing - my concern about Papelbon is back - and now, I'm wondering if he will have the same recurring problems all season, or, very possibly, get worse.
Last night, I watched Papelbon barely survive a long 9th inning against the Oakland Athletics. It was familiar. He gave up a walk, a single, and, then, a smash hit to center that looked like it would be a home run, but it stayed in the yard - a sacrifice fly - due to very strong incoming wind. He then got a strikeout, gave up a single and struck out the last batter.
As often, Papelbon was unable to get his "straight"-looking fastball by some hitters. (In past years, he has fired strikes - even down the middle - easily by hitters because of his "giddy-up."
What's going on with Papelbon? Is his arm worn out? Did he change his motion out of necessity due to worries about potential strain to his arm? Do the Red Sox expect him to be effective all season? Maybe one of their chief motivations to get Daniel Bard up to the big leagues fast this season was to be a backpup to Papelbon THIS year instead of in future seasons.
I don't know, but, right now Papelbon does not look strong and refreshed out there. He looks like he could easily wear down further by September -and, by then, his fastballs might be even more hittable.
Ramon Ramirez has to work his way out of a little pitching slump. He still is not "right" - He's throwing balls out over the plate too often. Justin Masterson has had two bad outings. The bullpen is finally showing a bit of vulnerability, and it only underlines the Sox need to bolster their only real need for improvement - the bottom part of their hitting lineup.
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