Sox Playoff Performance Reflected Season-long Flaws

In the end, the Red Sox playoff performance in 2009 should not have shocked even many Boston fans - if they were paying attention all season.

The Sox got swept by the Angels after many baseball pundits had projected the Sox to win. A disturbing number of writers cited the Sox past success against the Angels in the playoffs as a main reason they'd triumph again. Virtually every baseball account of Game Three, when the Angels rallied from behind against Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, described that as "shocking" or put it in a similar context. While I was completely surprised Papelbon gave it all up, I was not shocked by even that sequence. Why? Because, for a good part of the season, I watched Papelbon struggle to get through his outings when he was often unable to finish off hitters - from all parts of the opposing team's lineup. (See my earlier blogs on Papelbon) In some of his "bad" games, he'd give up a hit or two, a walk, and a couple of line-drive outs, and then, somehow - whether due to an adrenalin rush or more intense focus or some magic -- he'd excape from the outing without yielding a run. My big point is that Papelbon has not been himself much of the year. What's baffling is that in the last weeks of the season, he pitched more consistently than before. Yet, when he kept throwing sub-par fastballs (for him) high in the strike zone to a few Angels' hitters, who basked the ball, it was familiar - in an eerie way - to me, and, I'm sure, other fans.

Now that 24 hours have passed and I've begun digesting that the season is really over, I'll give a list of my "first reactions" to this disappointing ALDS. (More to come)

• The Red Sox will have to try to improve their weak, inconsistent hitting during the off-season. For the Sox to get only 8 hits and 1 run in the first two games was truly pathetic, but, we watched this team get shut down by good pitchers on many opposing teams - along with rookie pitchers they had never seen.
• The Red Sox will have to keep in mind - as they look for new hitters - that this 2009 team hit poorly on the road for most of the year. They were SO, SO much better at home that this reflected their weakness (on rd.) more than strength at their hitter-friendly park.
• They will also have to address a need for both "contact hitters" and "power hitters." They really miss the days of David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, in their Gehrig-Ruth imitation, when they could hit anything in or out of the park. We realize more now, after a season and a half, that the LOSS of this duo in their prime has impacte the Sox whole lineup and how pitchers view it. Pitchers DO seem more relaxed against the Sox, don't they?
• The Red Sox cannot ever view Josh Beckett the same way now. If he stays on the team, they will have to monitor him far more closely and plan proactively to help him avoid arm fatigue or injury. He has "broken down" significantly two seasons in a row and hurt the team's playoff chances each time. It's not clear what's going on with his arm. His arm appeared tired, to me, during the last two months. He couldn't throw his fastball as hard or with the same good command and his curveball became less effective or consistent.
• The Red Sox management has to start acknowledging that yes, the Sox can win 95 games by feasting off the mediocre Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals and other teams - and, still not have what it takes to go all the way. This 09 team illustrated the limits of baseball statistics; I kept hearing they scored more runs than most American League teams. So what? They racked up blowout scores vs. the lousy teams, but, often lost against the best teams.
• I know Theo Epstein will never part with JD Drew, but, he should overcome his denial about Drew's value. In a recent radio interview, Theo went out of his way to assert Drew's statistics were pretty good, but he took things out of context. Theo should know better. If you watch the games, you know how many times Drew has been right on the edge of being able to keep a key rally going, but he often strikes out on a called strike or goes down in a feeble-looking at-bat -- despite all the natural talent he possesses. If Theo were consistent, he'd consider shopping Drew and trying to eat part of his contract because he's contributed far too little for a guy earning $13 million a year.
• I wonder if David Ortiz will want to come back next year? I have an impulse that Ortiz and the Sox could come to some agreement - and, either he gets traded or something happens. I feel something unpredictable might happen with Big Papi. He was very unhappy with the press reaction to the steroid allegations against him even though it was relatively mild. I also am not sure Mike Lowell will return. Each have contracts extending through next year, but, each are veterans who may wanat to take some control of their destiny.
• I think Jason Varitek should probably retire - and I think he may choose to, but, if he comes back, I hope he honestly expects he can be in radically reduced, different role and still contribute to the team. I have trouble imagining him in this role - as an occasional back-up catcher. My guess is the team and Varitek will agree on some kind of "buy-out" of his option, which would pay him $3 million for 2010.
• Clay Buchholz absolutely - without any question - MUST be in the starting rotation in April. He's fully earned it and if he were left out of the rotation, I would not blame him for asking for a trade.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka's role doesn't seem as "definite" as one might think. First, he had a "forgottten season" in 2009, spending most of it getting in shape before returning for a few starts only to find out that he would not get a start in the ALDS. The team chose to pitch Buhcholz in Game Three and were prepared to pitch Lester on three days rest in Game Four. That's not a vote of confidence for Daisuke. I can imagine Dice-K returning, but I also will not be shocked if the Sox try to trade him.
  

Angels Shut Down Sox Bats Again; Beckett's Best Is Not Enough

Limited Hitting Skills Haunt Sox Vs. Angels

The Red Sox hitters have saved their worst for last. In the first two games of the ALDS vs. the Angels, they've barely gotten wood on the ball.

Angel pitchers John Lackey and Jered Weaver, on consecutive nights, each limited the Red Sox to only four hits. In Game One, the Angels won 5 - 0. In Game Two, it was 4 -1.

This weak hitting against first-rate pitching has plagued the Red Sox all season. When they struggle against quality pitching, they really struggle. Their display in the playoffs has been particularly pitiful given that it counts more.

It's clear the Sox have to make moves in the off-season to shore up their line-up. Their lack of "contact hitters" has hurt them all year, and it's killing them against the Angels. When facing tough pitching, the need for hitters to simply make contact and poke a few singles - however they can - is essential. The Sox have only two or three hitters who are half-decent or better at hitting a variety of pitches for contact: Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez. David Ortiz can't make contact well anymore; when he hits, it's usually a double or home run, it seems. Jason Bay and Mike Lowell can be pitched to, especially with breaking pitches. JD Drew is simply too erratic. Jacoby Ellsbury, while improved at making contact, still has a long way to go. Alex Gonzalez is a weak, poor contact hitter.

So, as depressing as it is, the Sox performance vs. the Angels feels like a negative culmination of trends all summer. Of course, they could mount a comeback, but the chances are REMOTE.

Beckett Did Well for Six Innings, then His Problems Re-appeared - BADLY

Josh Beckett did better than I predicted last night - but, he still didn't look right. His fastball was at a lower velocity and he didn't even throw his curveball often. Somehow, relying on guile and experience, he gutted it out and survived six innings, surrendering only three hits.

Frankly, I don't know how Beckett did it. I missed watching the first three innings while WTBS covered the Yankees-Twins game. From what I saw, he had much better control of his fastball than in recent outings. My guess was that he had to keep his velocity down in order to get the kind of good commant necessary to pitch in his sub-par state. I give Beckett credit for finding a way to make the best of a bad situation.

Yet, with the score, amazingly, still tied 1 -1 going into the Angels' bottom half of the 7th, I thought Terry Francona probably should've taken Beckett out of the game, given his recent struggles and the limitations in his approach all night.

Beckett walked the first batter in the 7th, but, it wasn't just any hitter. It was Vladimir Guerrero, who NEVER walks and is the biggest "free swinger" in baseball. This was a BAD sign, and, should've further prompted Francona to prepare to remove Beckett. Instead, Beckett ran the count to 3 -0 on Kendry Morales before he got him to fly out to left field. Howie Kendrick, who pinch ran, stole second. Juan Rivera grounded out, but, then Maicer Izturis singled to center to knock in the go-ahead run, as the Angels now led 2 -1. Now, I figured, it was clearly time to get a relief pitcher in there......but, NO........Francona left Beckett in. Beckett, by now, looked tired and not up to the task. He then hit Mike Napoli with a pitch and got angry that Napoli didn't try to avoid it. Next, Beckett threw a fastball (meatball) down the middle to Aybar, who tripled to center, knocking in two more runs, to make the score 4 - 1. Finally, Billy Wagner came in to relieve Beckett and record the last out in the 7th.

This morning, most media reports on the game stayed away from discussing Beckett. Most mentioned him doing well until the 7th, but, Sean McAdam of the Boston Herald, seemed to share some of my perspective when he cited how Beckett pitched with less in his arsenal, and, then, things fell apart for him in an uncharacteristically in the 7th:

McAdam wrote:

"..The Beckett on display in the seventh inning was a poor imitation of the Beckett from 2007. He labored through 28 pitches, showed shaky command (one walk, one hit batter) and was finally done in by a booming triple to center by Erick Aybar, the Angels' No. 9 hitter....."

"...And, there was this: Beckett's fastball lacked its usual bite most of last night, but particularly in the seventh when the Sox' post-season hung in the balance. He couldn't finish off hitters and didn't get many swings and misses.
His fastball, once reliably a mid-90s weapon to go with a knee-buckling curve, seldom topped 91-92 mph last night. At times, he threw fastballs at 89 mph a tick above average....

Then, McAdam recounted how Beckett had relied on guts to pitch in the 2008 playoffs, but given up 14 runs in 14 innings without making excuses.

"Is Beckett pitching hurt again this fall? That may be a matter of semantics....McAdam continued, before reporting Beckett's denial, last Thursday, of any physical problems.

It's hard to know exactly how Beckett's condition impacted Game Two, or, beyond that, the team's preparation for the playoffs. If the Sox comeback and force a Game 5, there is a chance Beckett may pitch again.
Even beyond the 2009 playoffs, however, it seems the Red Sox, from this point on, should reconsider how they monitor Beckett's pitching in future years to prevent physical problems from emerging again right before the playoffs.

Sox Go Into Critical Game Two With Beckett Off His Game

Josh Beckett and the Red Sox are still maintaining that there is nothing physically wrong with Beckett as he prepares to start in tonight's all-important Game Two of the ALDS against the Angels.
The Sox lost Game One last night, and, if they lose tonight, they'd face an incredibly difficult task of winning three in a row with Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka slated for Games 3 and 4.

"There's no issues physically at all," Beckett told the Boston Globe in Amalie Benjamin's article from Anaheim in the Oct. 9th edition.

Beckett had back spasms before his second-to-last start of the season and received three cortisone injections in his back before his last start, when he was pitched quite poorly for part of the game and a bit better in his last few innings.
After pitching superbly for a lengthy stretch earlier in the season, Beckett suddenly became less and less effective in August and September. Both his fastball and curve were not as effective as the season winded down, and, his fastball command got worse over time. His starts raised questions until, finally - when the Sox discussed Beckett's back problems, it appeared we had the explanation for at least some of his struggles. Yet, even after the cortisone shots, Beckett still didn't look right.
In any event, the Red Sox and Beckett have claimed he's fine now. The Sox organization, in essence, is claiming that a large part of Beckett's pitching problems has been due to flaws in his pitching mechanics, or, issues unrelated to health or fatigue.
I sense the explanation given by Beckett and the Red Sox is neither complete or accurate. I think Beckett's health and condition might take on more significance after tonight's game is over.
I've witnessed what everyone has: That Beckett has not been himself at all for nearly two months. My own belief is that he has a tired arm and that's why he's been unable to throw his fastball with the normal zip or location. He has a history of pitching better with a bit more rest, in general.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if Beckett is able to overcome his physical limitations tonight. I'll be amazed if he makes it to the seventh inning tonight, or, even, if he pitches a very good six innings. I hope I'm wrong.
I want to illustrate my point by sharing an exchange I had today - when I submitted a question to Boston Globe baseball reporter Adam Kilgore during Kilgore's a public "chat" with readers no the Globe's online site, Boston.com
I submitted a short question, like many fans, and Kilgore posted a brief reply during the "chat" - featured on Boston.com's website.

I wrote:

"Adam, I don't understand why you and other Boston baseball writers are not acknowledging the likelihood that Beckett is suffering from arm fatigue. He's pitched sub-par for nearly two months and signs suggest he does wear down at end of seasons."

Adam Kilgore replied to me, during the "chat session:

"Trust me, myself and other baseball writers have asked the right people about Beckett's issues and they've all said no, any issues are mechanical. If I started writing what you want me to, I'd be making it up. Also, for the record, over the past two months, Beckett is 5-2 with a 4.60 ERA and a .265 average against.

There it is: If Kilgore's characterization is true, it makes the incongruence between Beckett's performances and the Red Sox' explanation even more mysterious.

I recall we went through a somewhat similar circumstance last year. Beckett was suffering from an oblique injury heading into the 2008 playoffs, and, struggled badly in a few starts, but the team kept maintaining that he'd somehow be able to perform. As time passed, I wondered why he was even pitching. He was in bad shape - a shell of himself.

I hope Beckett pitches a gem tonight. If he does, all signs suggest it'll be a tremendous reversal of difficulties related to arm fatigue or an unknown injury that've hindered him for nearly two months. The facts and the odds are stacked heavily against him.

Could Beckett Hurt the Sox in Playoffs Again?

The signs look bad for Josh Beckett's potential to shine in the playoffs. In his last, regular-season start on Saturday, Beckett could have reassured Red Sox Nation by simply throwing his fastball with his usual sharp command. Instead, Beckett could not locate his fastball AT ALL in the first few innings. He was BAD. If he'd been pitching against the Yankees, he might've been knocked out the game, but, because it was the Indians, he wiggled his way out of things without more damage. Yet, for Beckett, you have to wonder when he's going to get his fastball command back. He's been pitching in sub-par fashion for nearly two months now -- with some outings far worse than others, but none at the high calibre of the great stretch he had earlier in the summer.
Beckett improved somewhat in his last couple of innings, but, overall, it was a mediocre outing.

It's impossible to know what's going on with Beckett and the mystery is heightened by his "John Wayne" tendencies when it comes to not admitting when he's hurt. My own guess, for a while now, is that Beckett has been tired in recent weeks -- that his arm is fatgued and that he should have been rested. Evidence suggested that. Beckett has never thrown as many innings as he has this season, and, he always pitches better when on 5 days rest rather than 4 -- and there are more facts that back up this theory. In any event, now, we all have to just hope that another five days gives Beckett a little extra strength to pitch more like his old self in Game Two vs the Angels. I don't think he's going to be able to get back to his old form, however. I think he's really tired, and, probably would benefit from shutting it down for the season now.

I hope I'm wrong. In other developments: Buchholz pitched his second lousy game in a row today - the last day of the season, so, he, too, is cause for worry. Who knows if he can stay poised on the mound in Game 3, especially after he runs into a jam? He's been better about losing his poise in recent weeks, but, his most recent two starts make you wonder if playoff regression is possible.

All in all, I just don't think this is the Red Sox year - and I think the Angels will in. Before, I guessed in five games, but, my revision now is that it could be in any combination -- I just think the Angels's superiority will guide them to beating the Sox this time.

Denial Dominates Wait for the ALDS

God, I can't take it anymore. Every day, I hear sports radio talk show hosts and Boston baseball writers talk about the 2009 Red Sox in inflated terms. Everyone here is predicting an easy win for the Red Sox when they face the Angels in the first round of the playoffs next week.
I doubt I'll hear a single sportswriter pick the Angels before the series next week.

Why? Well, that's what's amazing: Nobody offers good reasons, when, in fact, one can make just as strong a case for the Angels winning. The Angels, like the Sox, are one of the elite teams in baseball, but, many Sox fans disregard the strength of the 2009 Angels' hitting lineup, including, for example, Torre Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Kendry Morales and Chone Figgins, who is always stealing bases and distracting pitchers. At one point this season, I think almost the entire Angels' lineup was hitting over .300.

The Angels took the season series with the Red Sox 5 -4 in games. The Angels pitching rotation is back to normal with John Lackey and Ervin Santana over injuries. The Angels' speed on the bases is likely to cause big trouble for Sox pitchers and catchers, who have proven to be among the worst in baseball at preventing stolen bases.


Despite all this, baseball writers and fans have repeated the flawed, thoughtless argument that because the Red Sox have beaten the Angels in the ALDS playoffs three times in recent years, they simply have the Angels' number. Of course, each season, the two teams have had very different hitting lineups and pitchers, but, that doesn't stop the silly home bias.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox go into the playoffs with major question marks. The biggest is the status of Josh Beckett, who hasn't pitched in top form for the better part of two months. He recently missed a start due to back spasms that were serious enough to prompt the team to give him cortisone shots to improve his condition. For Beckett to succeed against the Angels, and, particularly, the Yankees, he must be at the top of his game. On the plus side, Jon Lester seemed fine tonight - in his first start after being hit in the knee last week - and got his 15th win.
While Clay Buchholz has pitched superbly for a number of starts, his most recent bad outing was a reminder that he's not a sure thing in his first playoff start. Daisuke Matsuzaka may or may not repeat his last terrific start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Hideki Okajima has pitched poorly in recent weeks and who knows if he'll snap out of that funk? Manny Delcarmen has been so bad lately that he really shouldn't be used at all. Daniel Bard has given up loud hits lately. Ramon Ramirez has been erratic.
Other players are peaking at the right time. Jonathan Papelbon looked sharp tonight and has thrown more consistently - with better location - for about a month now. Jason Bay has been belting the ball lately. Big Papi has hit more doubles and homer runs lately. Victor Martinez has hit well during his entire time with the team.

In the end, I feel it's harder to predict the performance of this 09 edition of the Sox than other teams in the past decade. If I have to guess who will win the ADLS now, I'd probably pick the Angels in 5.