I cannot understand why so many Red Sox fans are in denial about the limitations of this team - when compared directly to the 2009 New York Yankees. I see the Red Sox as one of the better teams in baseball, but, they are NOT EVEN CLOSE to the Yankees right now. Not even close.
All one has to do is watch the teams' head-to-head games. It's not a fluke that the Yanks have won nine of the last ten games vs. the Red Sox. They're simply much better. Earlier in the year, when the Sox won eight in a row vs. the Yanks, that Yankee team was more flawed and missing A-Rod for a chunk of that period. Now, it's painful to watch these old rivals play because the dynamic - instead of being close and competitive and suspenseful - has evolved into a mismatch over the past few months. The Yanks, with Phil Hughes excelling as their setup man and C.C. Sabathia being an incredibly consistent ACE for most of the year and seven or eight players hitting 20 homes runs or more - and on - and on, have the best team in all of baseball - and, clearly the big favorites to win the World Series.
So, why do fans and writers around Boston persist in a state of mass denial about the mismatch between the Yanks and the Sox? Why do they come up with arguments and theories that amount to poppycock about how the Sox pitchers are SO, SO much better than the Yankee pitchers even though, in recent series, most of the Yankee pitchers have simply outperformed our pitchers? Why do they pretend not to see the enormous gap in talent between the Yankee hitters and the Red Sox hitters? The Yankee lineup can consistently score runs against good pitchers while the Red Sox have often been shut down by an array of "average" pitchers - including rookies - this year. The baseball writers and fans here have held on to this parochial, narrow-minded, naieve view that the Sox are equal to the Yanks - even if the stats and what one sees on the field shows that is false.
I wish all this were not so. I hate the Yankees and I'm sick of everything about them, including all the credit they get for simply having an All-Star team that plays like All-Stars --- but, this year, it's going to take some outstanding pitching by some team to stop this Yankee juggernaut. Maybe the Angels could do it with pitching, hitting and a lot of steals. Maybe the Phillies could get pitching and have hitting that keeps them close enough to win.
The only way the Red Sox have a chance vs. the Yanks - if they face them in the ACLS again - is with near-perferct pitching from Jon Lester and Josh Beckett - with one great game from Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka mixed in. However, Beckett, unfortunately, has not been in top form for the past month and a half. His mechanics got messed up (or he has secret injury)and he's much more hittable. Meanwhile, after a line drive hit Lester in the knee on Friday, Sept. 25th, he may be impacted negatively somehow by the opening of the playoffs, although the signs are good. The point is the Yankees' hitting line-up is historically top-notch. It is even more of a powerhouse than some of the other All-Star lineups the Bombers have fielded in recent years!
This means there is almost no margin of error when you play the Yankees, who, uncoincidentally, are about to win their 100th game any day now.
The Red Sox, by contrast, has often featured Jason Varitek, who's batting about .140 for the second half. And virtually all of our hitters - except Victor Martinez - are less consistent and more streaky than the Yanks. I won't go on illustrating it Any observer cannot deny the Yankees' hitting superiority. The Yanks, literally, do not have one weak hitter in their lineup!
What's amazing is how so many sportswriters and fans go to extraordinary lengths to explain how the two teams are virutally "equal" and to claim our pitching is so much better and our bullpen is better -- blah, blah, blah. It's all BS. C.C. Sabathia is the only ace who overwhelmingly shut down the other team twice in a row - which is what he just did by allowing only one hit today over seven innings after coming close to that domination in his previous win vs. the Sox. Beckett, meanwhile, has been erratic against the Yanks. Lester has been good, but, before he got hit by the line drive Friday night, and had half-decent stuff, he was still getting knocked around. The Yankees can win games multiple ways - as they did in the first two games of the current series against the Red Sox. The won the first 9 - 5 with hitting and good pitching and then today, they won with a masterpiece by Sabathia and not as much clutch hitting, 3-0.
I want the Red Sox to beat the Angels in the ADLS, but, while I'm watching, I know I'll have sort of ambivalent feelings. Why? I'll feel that the Angels have a better chance to beat the Yankees, who they did well against again in 2009, than the Red Sox will. I'm tired of watching an overmatched edition of the Yankees beat up on the Sox. It feels like going back in time to the late 1990s.
I just don't get why so many baseball writers and fans can call the Red Sox what they are against the Yankees: Big Underdogs. There's nothing wrong with being Underdogs. I'll root for them against the Angels - as underdogs against them too. And telling the truth about your team can be more therapeutic than living in fantasyland.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Sox Seem Focused on Winning --at the Right Time
The Red Sox kept playing good, smart baseball as they swept the Orioles this weekend.
Yes, the Orioles stink, but, the Sox could have easily suffered a letdown coming into Camden Yards after the Angels series. Instead, the Red Sox seem to be playing with a bit more intensity and focus in recent days. The Sox finished with a 16 - 2 season record vs the Orioles.
Consider that in all three Orioles games, the Red Sox starters did not have their best stuff, but the team still did what they had to to win. On Friday night, Clay Buchholz showed that he can win a gam without being on his "A" game; in fact, Buchholz hasn't even experienced many games like that in his young career. His changeup, his "out" pitch, wasn't quite as sharp nor were his other pitches, but he kept his cool and pitched a solid six innings, giving the team a chance to win. On Saturday night, Jon Lester was definitely a bit off his game, (more than Buchholz was) ; as he gave up ten hits, he still limited the Orioles to only a few runs.
Then, today, though I didn't see it, apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn't as sharp as he was last week, but, he started well - striking out the side in the 1st - and kept things in check.
Yes, the Orioles stink, but, the Sox could have easily suffered a letdown coming into Camden Yards after the Angels series. Instead, the Red Sox seem to be playing with a bit more intensity and focus in recent days. The Sox finished with a 16 - 2 season record vs the Orioles.
Consider that in all three Orioles games, the Red Sox starters did not have their best stuff, but the team still did what they had to to win. On Friday night, Clay Buchholz showed that he can win a gam without being on his "A" game; in fact, Buchholz hasn't even experienced many games like that in his young career. His changeup, his "out" pitch, wasn't quite as sharp nor were his other pitches, but he kept his cool and pitched a solid six innings, giving the team a chance to win. On Saturday night, Jon Lester was definitely a bit off his game, (more than Buchholz was) ; as he gave up ten hits, he still limited the Orioles to only a few runs.
Then, today, though I didn't see it, apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka wasn't as sharp as he was last week, but, he started well - striking out the side in the 1st - and kept things in check.
In one sequence I watched in Saturday's game, the Sox played some great "small ball." It started with Dustin Pedroia pushing the count full before getting a single; then Victor Martinez reached the bat way out way outside of the strike zone in order to hit a ground ball to the right side of the infield in order to advance Pedroia. Then, Ortiz hit his second double of the night. Youkilis hit a high curve ball to knock in a run, and then, Lowell hit a clutch single to knock in another run. What was impressive was the quality of the at-bats; the hitters were working the count, really trying to make contact -- something that often has NOT happened this season.
Then, Billy Wagner came in, and, despite having trouble with his curve ball, according to Dennis Eckersley (I couldn't notice it as much) and pitched another scoreless inning. Wagner has been stellar so far.
Overall, it just seems the Red Sox are a much better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, and the other additions on the roster since Sept. 1st. Victor is the key.
Who knows? Maybe the Yankees will lose a few games on the West Coast this week while the Red Sox win - and, the Sox can enter their last series against the Yanks only three games out rather than six. (The Mariners are beating the Yankees 7-0 at the moment) Then, they can sweep the Yanks at Yankee Stadium and tie for the Division.....
OK, I just felt like expressing that fantasy......I do NOT think that will happen. I'll try to be content that the Sox are playing good ball as they head into the playoffs.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Red Sox Show Some Strength Against the Angels
The Red Sox have looked like a better team recently, particularly in their recent series just completed tonight against the Angels. (Of course, the Rangers have virtually collapsed over the past week, making things a lot easier for the Sox in the wild card race).
I still don't share the sentiments of so many Boston media and fans who seem to feel the Sox will have such a big advantage against the Angels, who they'd likely meet in the first round of the playoffs. To me, it's ridicolous that so many people point to the Red Sox success in recent years vs. the Angels in the playoffs as the main "reason" they'd beat the 2009 Angels. Every year is different - and this year's Angel team is argubly more talented than the Red Sox. They have a better hitting lineup, for sure. Before this series, I thought the Angels would have a good-sized advantage against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Now, after seeing the two teams square off, I still give the Angels the edge, but, I have a bit more hope for the Sox.
Overall, the Sox Are Stronger
The most important thing: They got Daisuke Matsuzaka back as a starter Tuesday night. He looked great - and, could make a critical contribution down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Overall, I just feel it meant more for the Sox to win a series against one of the best teams in baseball. (I'm not counting their early 8-0 streak vs. the Yanks, who had a few players out, including A-Rod). The Sox won two out of three, defeating Angels' ace John Lackey, and, then, won a game started by another Angels stud pitcher, Joe Saunders.
There were all kinds of reasons to doubt Dice-K would make a quality start Tuesday. Dice-K has missed most of the season. He left the team due to fatigue in his shoulder, and, later the team indicated that he needed to get in shape, and, basically, have a whole new version of "spring training." Matsuzaka had pitched only a few rehab starts in the minor leagues, and he had not performed that convincingly.
Well, you could see that Matsuzaka was "different" from the outset because his fastball was moving again. In fact, I don't think I've seen his fastball have that much zip - or, late life, on it since the 2007 season. He blew the ball by a few hitters with his heater at about 92 or 93 mph - but, with the "giddy-up," it seemed like the fastball was at 95.
Dice-K's control was better than usual. He seemed determined to pound the strike zone more and he suceeded. Even in his remarks after the game, Matsuzaka gave one a sense that he's on a mission to do well for the team after he feels he missed so much time.
The Sox hitting has been terrific during this homestand at Fenway - as it usually is. David Ortiz still looks inconsistent at the plate. He's not getting around on some fastballs and is too easily fooled by breaking pitches more often than he used to be; but, of course, he had these problems early in the season. The difference is that now, he'll have a few good games before sub-par games - and hit home runs and doubles in those.
The Sox have set up their bullpen so that, often, in winning games, they have Wagner in the 7th, Bard in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th. Bard has been more "mortal" in recent weeks, and given up some hits on occasion. Papelbon has been sharper and seemed to find some strength inexplicably in the past couple of weeks.
The one large cloud that had been hanging over the team was whether Beckett could get back to full strength. He had a few bad starts and I - like others - wondered if he needed some rest. His fastball lacked zip and he was frequently leaving it in the strike zone and his curve ball had lacked any good "bite" to it and was getting knocked around.
Michael Felger of the new "Sports Hub," radio show on 98.5 FM, has been commenting repeatedly that evidence in recent seasons demonstrates that Beckett tends to pitch a bit worse and get more vulnerable toward the end of the season -- when his season pitch count starts climbing. I totally agree with Felger. I thought it was stupid that Francona let Beckett go out to pitch the 8th inning tonight.
Felger has cited stats that show, convincingly, that when Beckett has gotten extra rest - in one of more of the past few seasons - the rest has helped him pitch better, including in the 2007 championship season.
Tonight, Beckett looked very good, but, he still was not at his very best. Angel batters hit a couple of his curves easily and his fastball, though decent all night, was a tiny bit lower in velocity -- often at about 93 mph when, in many outings this season, the speed has often been closer to 95 or 96 mph.
For the Sox to beat the Angels in the playoffs, Beckett, Ortiz and their teammates will have to play at their best in order to win. The Red Sox are the underdogs.
I still don't share the sentiments of so many Boston media and fans who seem to feel the Sox will have such a big advantage against the Angels, who they'd likely meet in the first round of the playoffs. To me, it's ridicolous that so many people point to the Red Sox success in recent years vs. the Angels in the playoffs as the main "reason" they'd beat the 2009 Angels. Every year is different - and this year's Angel team is argubly more talented than the Red Sox. They have a better hitting lineup, for sure. Before this series, I thought the Angels would have a good-sized advantage against the Red Sox in the playoffs. Now, after seeing the two teams square off, I still give the Angels the edge, but, I have a bit more hope for the Sox.
Overall, the Sox Are Stronger
The most important thing: They got Daisuke Matsuzaka back as a starter Tuesday night. He looked great - and, could make a critical contribution down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Overall, I just feel it meant more for the Sox to win a series against one of the best teams in baseball. (I'm not counting their early 8-0 streak vs. the Yanks, who had a few players out, including A-Rod). The Sox won two out of three, defeating Angels' ace John Lackey, and, then, won a game started by another Angels stud pitcher, Joe Saunders.
There were all kinds of reasons to doubt Dice-K would make a quality start Tuesday. Dice-K has missed most of the season. He left the team due to fatigue in his shoulder, and, later the team indicated that he needed to get in shape, and, basically, have a whole new version of "spring training." Matsuzaka had pitched only a few rehab starts in the minor leagues, and he had not performed that convincingly.
Well, you could see that Matsuzaka was "different" from the outset because his fastball was moving again. In fact, I don't think I've seen his fastball have that much zip - or, late life, on it since the 2007 season. He blew the ball by a few hitters with his heater at about 92 or 93 mph - but, with the "giddy-up," it seemed like the fastball was at 95.
Dice-K's control was better than usual. He seemed determined to pound the strike zone more and he suceeded. Even in his remarks after the game, Matsuzaka gave one a sense that he's on a mission to do well for the team after he feels he missed so much time.
The Sox hitting has been terrific during this homestand at Fenway - as it usually is. David Ortiz still looks inconsistent at the plate. He's not getting around on some fastballs and is too easily fooled by breaking pitches more often than he used to be; but, of course, he had these problems early in the season. The difference is that now, he'll have a few good games before sub-par games - and hit home runs and doubles in those.
The Sox have set up their bullpen so that, often, in winning games, they have Wagner in the 7th, Bard in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th. Bard has been more "mortal" in recent weeks, and given up some hits on occasion. Papelbon has been sharper and seemed to find some strength inexplicably in the past couple of weeks.
The one large cloud that had been hanging over the team was whether Beckett could get back to full strength. He had a few bad starts and I - like others - wondered if he needed some rest. His fastball lacked zip and he was frequently leaving it in the strike zone and his curve ball had lacked any good "bite" to it and was getting knocked around.
Michael Felger of the new "Sports Hub," radio show on 98.5 FM, has been commenting repeatedly that evidence in recent seasons demonstrates that Beckett tends to pitch a bit worse and get more vulnerable toward the end of the season -- when his season pitch count starts climbing. I totally agree with Felger. I thought it was stupid that Francona let Beckett go out to pitch the 8th inning tonight.
Felger has cited stats that show, convincingly, that when Beckett has gotten extra rest - in one of more of the past few seasons - the rest has helped him pitch better, including in the 2007 championship season.
Tonight, Beckett looked very good, but, he still was not at his very best. Angel batters hit a couple of his curves easily and his fastball, though decent all night, was a tiny bit lower in velocity -- often at about 93 mph when, in many outings this season, the speed has often been closer to 95 or 96 mph.
For the Sox to beat the Angels in the playoffs, Beckett, Ortiz and their teammates will have to play at their best in order to win. The Red Sox are the underdogs.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Sox Struggle to Break from Mediocrity - Before it's Too Late
The 2009 season all seems to rest on whether Josh Beckett can regain his top form.
If he can, again, pitch at his best, the Red Sox have a chance to win games in the playoffs.
If he remains "limited" - whether due to problems in his pitching mechanics, fatigue or an unknown injury, most agree the Sox will go nowhere.
As for me, I agree on the need for Beckett's "A game," but, I strongly doubt the Sox will advance far in the playoffs even with that. Why? Their hitting is too weak against good pitching, and, if they make the playoffs, they'll face only opposing teams' best pitchers.
I agreed with a point made this week by Tony Massarotti on his new radio show: This 2009 Sox team has not proven they can perform well against good teams.
All you have to do is look up the Red Sox record vs. other teams with winning records in the American League, and, you'll find the discouraging results. Yes, the Red Sox still have a 9-6 edge against the Yankees with three games left between the teams, but, I know no fan who believes the current Sox are as good as the current Yanks. The Sox ran up their 8-0 initial lead in that series when the Yanks were dealing with injuries and other issues. Now, the Yanks are by far, the scariest team in baseball, heading toward 100 plus wins and with seven of their nine starting players already with at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter needs three to make that eight players. So, I think we can agree the Sox are not as good as the Yanks.
The Rays lead 9 - 6 in games vs the Sox with three games left. The Angels are 4 -2 vs the Sox with a three-game series coming up. The Rangers - their primary wild card opponent now - are 7 - 2 vs the Sox in 2009. The Mariners are 4 - 2 vs. the Sox. The Twins are 4-2 vs the Sox.
The only real exception is that the Red Sox went 6-1 vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers deteriorated into a bad team, so, that feat means little. The Red Sox couldn't manage more than a 4-4 split against the White Sox, who are a game below 500 as of Sept. 10th.
Now, yes, with Jon Lester pitching well and, possibly, a sharper Beckett, the Sox might surprise by advancing in the playoffs. They're a better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and an expanded roster. However, their hitting has often been average of below average against either teams' "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers OR many young pitchers they had never faced before.
The team desparately needs one consistent slugger in its lineup. (Manny and the Big Papi of years past are gone) Several of its decent hitters - whether Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or Jason Bay - have been inconsistent with men on base. JD Drew has performed poorly most of the year, until the past month or so. Jacoby Ellsbury has hit his peak recently, but will he continue that against top-notch pitchers in the playoffs.
I'm trying to keep hope alive, but, I know one thing: This Red Sox team will have to morph into a better, different team in order to do well in the playoffs -- if it makes the playoffs.
If he can, again, pitch at his best, the Red Sox have a chance to win games in the playoffs.
If he remains "limited" - whether due to problems in his pitching mechanics, fatigue or an unknown injury, most agree the Sox will go nowhere.
As for me, I agree on the need for Beckett's "A game," but, I strongly doubt the Sox will advance far in the playoffs even with that. Why? Their hitting is too weak against good pitching, and, if they make the playoffs, they'll face only opposing teams' best pitchers.
I agreed with a point made this week by Tony Massarotti on his new radio show: This 2009 Sox team has not proven they can perform well against good teams.
All you have to do is look up the Red Sox record vs. other teams with winning records in the American League, and, you'll find the discouraging results. Yes, the Red Sox still have a 9-6 edge against the Yankees with three games left between the teams, but, I know no fan who believes the current Sox are as good as the current Yanks. The Sox ran up their 8-0 initial lead in that series when the Yanks were dealing with injuries and other issues. Now, the Yanks are by far, the scariest team in baseball, heading toward 100 plus wins and with seven of their nine starting players already with at least 20 home runs. Derek Jeter needs three to make that eight players. So, I think we can agree the Sox are not as good as the Yanks.
The Rays lead 9 - 6 in games vs the Sox with three games left. The Angels are 4 -2 vs the Sox with a three-game series coming up. The Rangers - their primary wild card opponent now - are 7 - 2 vs the Sox in 2009. The Mariners are 4 - 2 vs. the Sox. The Twins are 4-2 vs the Sox.
The only real exception is that the Red Sox went 6-1 vs. the Tigers, but the Tigers deteriorated into a bad team, so, that feat means little. The Red Sox couldn't manage more than a 4-4 split against the White Sox, who are a game below 500 as of Sept. 10th.
Now, yes, with Jon Lester pitching well and, possibly, a sharper Beckett, the Sox might surprise by advancing in the playoffs. They're a better team with Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner and an expanded roster. However, their hitting has often been average of below average against either teams' "top-of-the-rotation" pitchers OR many young pitchers they had never faced before.
The team desparately needs one consistent slugger in its lineup. (Manny and the Big Papi of years past are gone) Several of its decent hitters - whether Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz or Jason Bay - have been inconsistent with men on base. JD Drew has performed poorly most of the year, until the past month or so. Jacoby Ellsbury has hit his peak recently, but will he continue that against top-notch pitchers in the playoffs.
I'm trying to keep hope alive, but, I know one thing: This Red Sox team will have to morph into a better, different team in order to do well in the playoffs -- if it makes the playoffs.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Can the Red Sox Peak at Just the Right Time?
At the end of many baseball seasons, the teams that are playing their best sometime in the last four or six weeks often keep the momentum going right into the playoffs and give themselves a chance to win it all.
Are the 2009 Red Sox one of those teams?
They haven't shown many signs of "getting on a hot streak" during this strange season. In fact, when one looks back, how often were the different components of the team -- starting pitchers, bullpen, hitters -- all performing well together? I cannot think of one time, really. On the contrary, I recall pitchers and hitters all going through ups and downs most of the year.
Very few players have been steady all year and it makes it hard to predict what will happen in September or beyond. One truth: The team has more strengths now - more good players on the roster - than at any other point. I say that mainly because of the additions of Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez and the several new players who joined the team today when the roster expanded.
The "Good, but not Great" Problem on the Sox
The Red Sox have only a few players who I'd classify as "great" right now. Josh Beckett has pitched great for much of the year, but, started slowly, and, unfortunately, is now in a mysterious slump that's hopefully related to mechanics rather than an injury. I think Jon Lester is a great pitcher, but he's had enough bumps in the road to prevent a "great" record. Kevin Youkilis, to me, barely qualifies as a "great" hitter. I'd say he's "very good." Jason Bay has been "very good," but, his slump was too long and his inability to hit breaking pitches prevents him from being "great." Jonathan Papelbon doesn't quite seem "great" anymore, but he's still a damned good closer.
Without reviewing all the players, my point is that it's hard for a team to win the World Series without a few big stars -- guys playing like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were a few years ago. Or, guys like Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes or Mariano Rivera for the Yankees. Or, on the Rays: Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena or Matt Garza.
The question is whether a bunch of those "good" Sox players will rise to the occasion in September and/or the playoffs?
A player who is trending in the right direction, for example is Jacoby Ellsbury. In recent weeks, he has suddenly been hitting consistently and more comfortable and confident at the plate. (He made an enormous contribution to winning this game tonight vs the Rays!)
A player I've lost confidence in is Ramon Ramirez, who seems to give up hits during every outing and has lost his capacity to locate the ball where he wants -- as he did earlier in the season.
If you go through the lineup, there are "qualifiers" attached to so many players. Ortiz has hit better lately, but, he still seems less able to hit off-speed or breaking pitches as well as in the past. Dustin Pedroia has been erratic with men on base for much of the year. J.D. Drew, who has had a BAD year, has hit much better the past few weeks. With the pitchers, Bard started out off the charts, but has looked more mortal in recent weeks. Hideki Okajima has been very good most of the year, but more erratic in the second half. He just came into a 7 -2 game vs. the Rays and allowed five Rays in a row to reach base.
The Sox Also Would Need Luck to Advance In the Playoffs
On sports radio, all the callers and hosts keep saying that because the Red Sox have Beckett and Lester, they'll be tough for any team to beat in the playoffs. I guess I don't agree. I'd say Beckett and Lester can give the team a good chance, but the "average" or inconsistent nature of their hitting line-up - particularly against good pitchers - makes them more beatable. Their bullpen is good, but seems a bit more vulnerable with Okajima, and, especially Ramirez not as consistent. It sounds funny, but I think Billy Wagner could be a big factor. He has looked fantastic in his two outings - including tonight against the Rays - and his experience could prove invaluable in the playoffs.
Of course, just while I'm expressing these doubts, Papelbon has gotten one of his best saves of the season -- his first two-inning, six-out save -- and this at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla, where the Sox usually stink. Who knows with this team?
Are the 2009 Red Sox one of those teams?
They haven't shown many signs of "getting on a hot streak" during this strange season. In fact, when one looks back, how often were the different components of the team -- starting pitchers, bullpen, hitters -- all performing well together? I cannot think of one time, really. On the contrary, I recall pitchers and hitters all going through ups and downs most of the year.
Very few players have been steady all year and it makes it hard to predict what will happen in September or beyond. One truth: The team has more strengths now - more good players on the roster - than at any other point. I say that mainly because of the additions of Victor Martinez, Billy Wagner, Alex Gonzalez and the several new players who joined the team today when the roster expanded.
The "Good, but not Great" Problem on the Sox
The Red Sox have only a few players who I'd classify as "great" right now. Josh Beckett has pitched great for much of the year, but, started slowly, and, unfortunately, is now in a mysterious slump that's hopefully related to mechanics rather than an injury. I think Jon Lester is a great pitcher, but he's had enough bumps in the road to prevent a "great" record. Kevin Youkilis, to me, barely qualifies as a "great" hitter. I'd say he's "very good." Jason Bay has been "very good," but, his slump was too long and his inability to hit breaking pitches prevents him from being "great." Jonathan Papelbon doesn't quite seem "great" anymore, but he's still a damned good closer.
Without reviewing all the players, my point is that it's hard for a team to win the World Series without a few big stars -- guys playing like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez were a few years ago. Or, guys like Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes or Mariano Rivera for the Yankees. Or, on the Rays: Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena or Matt Garza.
The question is whether a bunch of those "good" Sox players will rise to the occasion in September and/or the playoffs?
A player who is trending in the right direction, for example is Jacoby Ellsbury. In recent weeks, he has suddenly been hitting consistently and more comfortable and confident at the plate. (He made an enormous contribution to winning this game tonight vs the Rays!)
A player I've lost confidence in is Ramon Ramirez, who seems to give up hits during every outing and has lost his capacity to locate the ball where he wants -- as he did earlier in the season.
If you go through the lineup, there are "qualifiers" attached to so many players. Ortiz has hit better lately, but, he still seems less able to hit off-speed or breaking pitches as well as in the past. Dustin Pedroia has been erratic with men on base for much of the year. J.D. Drew, who has had a BAD year, has hit much better the past few weeks. With the pitchers, Bard started out off the charts, but has looked more mortal in recent weeks. Hideki Okajima has been very good most of the year, but more erratic in the second half. He just came into a 7 -2 game vs. the Rays and allowed five Rays in a row to reach base.
The Sox Also Would Need Luck to Advance In the Playoffs
On sports radio, all the callers and hosts keep saying that because the Red Sox have Beckett and Lester, they'll be tough for any team to beat in the playoffs. I guess I don't agree. I'd say Beckett and Lester can give the team a good chance, but the "average" or inconsistent nature of their hitting line-up - particularly against good pitchers - makes them more beatable. Their bullpen is good, but seems a bit more vulnerable with Okajima, and, especially Ramirez not as consistent. It sounds funny, but I think Billy Wagner could be a big factor. He has looked fantastic in his two outings - including tonight against the Rays - and his experience could prove invaluable in the playoffs.
Of course, just while I'm expressing these doubts, Papelbon has gotten one of his best saves of the season -- his first two-inning, six-out save -- and this at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla, where the Sox usually stink. Who knows with this team?
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