Red Sox May Have Another "Bridge" Year in 2011

As the Red Sox prepare to close the books on a disappointing 2010 season, let's hope the management team of GM Theo Epstein, CEO Larry Lucchino and Owner John Henry find the wisdom to make some good decisions about next season and beyond.

The Red Sox' 2010 season collapsed due to a rash of serious injuries to important players and a
few key weaknesses on the team, such as a poor bullpen.

The choices don't get any easier for Theo and Company in the weeks and months ahead. The Sox brass must decide how much they're willing to risk another season of not making the playoffs in 2011. Should they try hard to add a few new, good players this winter - via trade or free agency? Should they decide to plan on bringing up one or two of their young players to get a lot more starts during the 2011 season? (Ryan Kalish, for example)

And, what are the Sox going to do about David Ortiz, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez - whose contracts are due to expire at the end of this season?

Let's start with decisions on this "big three" group.

Ortiz: I would consider saying goodbye to Ortiz when this season ends. Though he again managed to put up good numbers, Ortiz is not the same hitter he was a few years ago - whether it's due to age or other factors. He's evolved into a very good "mistake" hitter. If and when pitchers leave fastballs over the plate, Big Papi often can still belt these balls either out of the park or against the fence for a double. However, Ortiz cannot hit for contact the way he could back in 2004 - 06. He can't get wood on many pitches; in fact, he can be pitched to by many of the best pitchers on other teams. Pitchers can often get Papi out with good breaking stuff - curves, sliders, cutters. Lefthanded pitchers can get him out almost all the time. (His average vs lefties is terrible)
So, the argument goes, if Ortiz's "contact hitting" skills are continuing to decline, why should the Sox pay him another $12.5 million in 2011? I think it makes more sense to cut ties with him now than to wait until later. It'd be part of a decision to "rebuild" in 2011.
I will say this: I am not as opposed to paying Big Papi for just one more year based on the premise that, after a bad start, he rebounded to have a consistent year and provided a key part of the team's power. But, I am absolutely opposed to the Sox signing Ortiz to anything beyond one more year. He's getting older and that makes no sense.

Beltre: This is a tough decision. If there is any way the Red Sox can offerr Beltre a high salary for the next couple of years, with maybe an option for a third year, I'd support re-signing him. Beltre was the star of the team this year. Often, he won games single-handedly, getting the "big hits" time and again. Plus, he seems like he's terrifically suited for Fenway Park. He rips so many line drives down the line or off the Green Monster. For these reasons, I think the Sox should offer Beltre a lot of money for two or three years. The problem is that he and agent Scott Boraas will likely want a deal for four years or more. If the Sox could make a fourth year incentive-laden, I'd try that. If Boras and Beltre are stubborn about these details, then I can understand the Sox being reluctant. Beltre, until this year, has had a fairly erratic performance in the past. So, I think the argument would be to pay him really well for a shorter time, but try hard to keep him -- if he's open to a deal shorter than 4 or more years.

Martinez: Of these three, I'd try the hardest to sign Victor. He's a great hitter - for contact and power. His attitude is great: Players describe him as one of the leaders in the clubhouse. He played with a bad thumb for the entire second half of the season. After a poor start throwing out baserunners trying to steal, Martinez improved as the season progressed. He can catch, play first base and hit at DH, making his signing feel less risky. If nothing else, you know Victor can hit - and from both sides of the plate.

I don't think there is any way the Sox can or should bring back all three of this trio - of Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez. I think they have to bring back either one or two, however. I'd take steps to ensure Victor's return, try hard for Beltre and be willing to part with Ortiz.

What other moves loom on the horizon? The pitching staff seems intact. Even if Josh Beckett and John Lackey struggle again in 2011, the Red Sox are stuck with their big contracts now. No other team will want to trade for either of those two now. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz should return ready to excel again in 2011. As for Daisuke Matsuzaka, now is a good time to try to trade him in the offseason.

Daisuke has two years left on his contract, and, I believe he's due to be paid $10 million in 2011.
At this point, we know a lot about Matsuzaka. Though he got plenty of rest during the 2009 season after reporting unprepared to pitch, and, he got time off due to injury for a small part of 2010, Daisuke pitched well only in spurts during this season. For one stretch, he got it together and walked fewer hitters, and posted a handful of excellent starts back-to-back. But, then, he
struggled in a few starts, and, as the season is ending, he still seems like he's unreliable, too prone to control problems and too tentative about challenging hitters.
Matsuzaka seems either resistant to change or unable to accept suggestions and incorporate adjustments into his pitching. He makes the same mistakes over and over. It's time to let him go. He has not turned out to be the pitching stud he was made out to be. Instead, he's been a solid, decent pitcher -- far from the "star" he was in Japan. If the Sox can get a quality player or two back for Daisuke - or a couple of top prospects, I'd do that in a minute.
I've seen enough of Matsuzaka.
One caveat: The Sox would have to have someone good ready to replace him in the rotation, and, I'm not including Tim Wakefield in that discussion. The team should cut ties with Wake, at this point. Not only is he injury-prone almost every year, but, he can't pitch well with any consistency anymore - and, yes, he's very old.

I think the team is preparing to part company with Jonathan Papelbon, who, clearly has lost some zip on his fastball. I wouldn't mind bringing Papelbon back for one more year, if he could convince the front office that he could get some "giddy-up" back into his fastball during 2011. If pitching coach John Farrell and others think Papelbon's fastball will not improve again, I'd consider trading him now in the offseason. It all depends on the details about what's happening with his arm. Papelbon needs that late life on his heater, or he becomes ordinary awfully fast.

I disagree with many of Boston's baseball writers who have maintained the Sox' offense was adequate in 2010, particularly during the first half of the season. I thought the hitting was lacking enough punch throughout the lineup for the entire season. I thought the team needed another power hitter or another contact hitter -- even when Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia were in the lineup. So, I think no matter what decisions the team makes on Ortiz, Beltre and Martinez, they will have to probably add some firepower to remain competitive with the Yankees and the Rays, whose lineups are superior now.

It remains unclear if the team will try to trade Jacoby Ellsbury after the young centerfielder voiced his dissatisfaction with how the team's doctors treated him after his rib injuries. If Ellsbury returns, it'll reinforce the need for more hitting because he's a mediocre contact hitter to have leading off. He did improve a bit during the 2009 season, so, we never saw whether he'd have kept the same performance going during 2010.

These are just a few of many questions facing the Red Sox before the 2011 season. That I'm already discussing them -- with the Sox about to face the Yankees for a meaningless regular-season series in NY -- illustrates what a disappointment the 2010 season was.

At this moment, it appears it'll be hard for the Sox to juggle all the changes and add enough top players to ensure a much better year in 2011 than was 2010. It may be another "bridge" year, although Theo Epstein will never admit it.