Wed Night's Unlikely Win Was Sweet

Wow. I didn't think the Sox has a chance tonight after Lester didn't have it and they were down 5-0. Somehow, with the help of rookie Jonathan Van Every's game-winning home run in the 10th, they pulled it out. Youkilis wasn't in the line-up - or Drew. Carmona pitched great most of the game, with his nasty changeup making Sox hitters look bad.
I think the Red Sox have good karma right now. If they can win all these games now -- without Ortiz hitting as he can -- they're bound to get better.
I remain concerned about both Ortiz and Papelbon. I've seen - as you have - Ortiz fail to get his bat around on fastballs that he has belted in the past, and, you have to wonder how long that slower bat speed is going to last. Tonight, in his last at-bat against Jensen Lewis of the Indians, he fouled off an 89 mph fastball on the outside corner that I swear he'd have hit easily the past few years. There have been many, many, many pitches like that in this short season -- when he's simply not swinging the bat with the same quick snap he's had in the past. He also just does not seem to watch the ball as long as it comes in toward the plate.....as if he knows his batspeed is slower -- so, he must commit to his swing earlier.
If his bat does not get faster within two or three weeks, I'll begin to really believe his wrist is still not healthy OR his skills are, perhaps, diminishing in sudden fashion for a mysterious reason at the age of 33.

You see: Papelbon IS throwing the ball differently

I noticed something appeared "off" about Jonathan Papelbon's pitching in his second appearance. this season vs. the Angels. I wrote about my observations in this blog -- That his fastball lacked "late life" and hitters were not swinging and missing. This pattern continued until his appearance in the first game this week against Cleveland, when he gave up three singles.

What's amazing, to me, is that it took until Sunday's April 26th Boston Globe for a reporter to acknowledge Papelbon's different approach, look and results on the mound. Amalie Benjamin's 4/26 article, finally, reported that Papelbon had changed his delivery and mechanics to take pressure off his arm.

"I'm using my legs more so all that torque and stuff is going to be on my legs and not on my arms, Papelbon told the Globe. He said he felt comfortable with the new mechanics, which feature driving more with his lower body.

Amalie Benjamin's article mentioned that, so far, hitters were not swinging and missing as often against Papelbon, and he'd been forced into higher pitch counts. Michael Silverman wrote an article in the April 29th Boston Herald about Papelbon and reported that his inconsistency was due to the new leg drive in his delivery.

I think the Globe and Herald may be scratching the surface with this Papelbon story. Why did he change his delivery - apparently during Spring Training? Was it due to the team's concern about strain in his arm? Don't forget Papelbon finished the 2008 season feeling completedly wiped out - and that was his description. The team already has closely monitored the frequency of his outings to prevent any recurrence of the subluxation of his shoulder that occurred in the fall of 2006.

It seems there is more to this story. It seems what Papelbon is suggesting is that while he got more "late life" from his previous delivery, he (and maybe, the team) feels that now, he must learn to pitch this new way that puts the stress on his leg drive more.

The question is: Will he be as good a pitcher with the new approach? So far, he's not, but, he may improve over time.

Thoughts on Friday Night with Joba and Yanks

I hope Joba Chamberlain does not throw the ball anywhere near Kevin Youkilis tonight.
If he brushes Youkilis back with a pitch near his head, I would not be surprised if Youkilis loses his temper and some sort of brawl begins. I don't expect Chamberlain to do this. It would be stupid and inexcusable.

Chamberlain has thrown the ball in the direction of Youkilis' head or way inside on FOUR occasions between August, 2007 and July, 2008. He threw two of those pitches back-to-back at Youkilis during one at-bat in 2007! Both pitches went behind Youkilis. That's how inside they were! That got Chamberlain suspended for two games.

I have never -- ever -- heard of any pitcher doing anything like this -- in terms of throwing this many bad "brushback" pitches at one player on an opposing team - in my lifetime. I've heard no baseball writer give any example that compares to this record Chamberlain has with Youkilis.

If Chamberlain throws at Youkilis tonight, I strongly believe he should be not only thrown out of the game and suspended for far more than two games, but penalized SEVERELY.

More on this series later.

Lester's Outing Was Best Pitching of Season

Well, it looks like the Jon Lester of last season is back. He was terrific on Sunday - and, this time, he kept the ball down much more often. His cut fastball returned to form. His threw the ball very hard at times (96 mph) This is, in some ways, the most important thing to happen to the team in the past few days.

Let's hope that Big Papi's double and triple yesterday were a sign of things to come. Amalie Benjamin's story on Ortiz in today's (4/21) Globe was very good because she got Ortiz to open up about his hitting woes. While it was nice to hear that Ortiz has been working hard on his hitting mechanics, it was a bit unsettling to read his admission that he's swinging late - and that that's something he has not usually done. The question is why? Let's hope it's a bad habit.
Interestingly, Ortiz himself admitted to Benjamin that "If you as a hitter slow down with 88 miles an hour (fastballs) that means you've got to go."

The bullpen has been very good with the exception of Javier Lopez, who, I must say, almost never reassures me on the mound. Papelbon, again, threw hard in his last appearance, but, I didn't see the "late life" in his fastball. I think if he has to pitch to the best hitters now, he'd have a tough time - without more "giddy-up" - The Yankees could be tough for him next weekend.

Youkilis and Pedroia have gotten so good that I'm rarely surprised by them now. Youkilis is on fire now -- I think he, actually, has a good chance to get better as a hitter - He seems to improve every year.

What impressed me with sweep of the Orioles is that the O's can really hit -- but, the Sox still kep them in check. Nick Markakis is, in my view, one of the best hitters out there.

Sox Win Great Comeback, but.....I have worries

To win a dramatic 10-8 comeback by defeating Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles' best pitcher, on a night when the Red Sox were down 7-0, is a pretty damned good night. These kind of comebacks happen only a few times a season........yet......

Big Papi Is in a Hitting Rut

Yet, I find myself very concerned about David Ortiz at this point. I could understand if he were just "getting off to a slow start," but he looks so bad at the plate now. On top of whatever mechanical parts of his swing are messed-up, I think Big Papi is also pressing now - It seems in his head. He swung at a couple of pitches tonight that were out of the strike zone -- He got struck out on high fastballs twice. This hasn't happened a lot over the past few years. Ortiz, in the past, has watched the ball all the way to the plate and been able to take a quick late swing. Sometimes he's been able to flick the bat so fast and late in his swing that he hits a home run or a double off the green monster, maybe. This year, he is not getting the bat around as quickly and he's swinging and missing OR fouling pitches off that he has hit for the past five years.

What is going on? My own theory is that his wrist injury and his adjustments to it are still causing him trouble. In parts of last year, his swing looked a bit different too - and he was in pain then. Supposedly, he was told to rest the wrist all winter and it'd get better -- So far, I'm not buying that everything is OK.....Either he got his mechanics all fouled up in response to the injury OR it's still bothering him.

I just don't like what I'm reading and hearing about Ortiz, either. Tony Masserotti of the Boston Globe made a comment that he thought Papi was getting fooled on breaking balls, because he was trying to "cheat" by partly looking for the fastball - and the reason for that may be that Ortiz feels he's not getting around on fastballs quickly enough. Then, Buster Olney of ESPN wrote about Ortiz' struggles. Others are.......I just hope he's OK but, if his wrist is hurt, he ought to get it addressed. If he's not playing well this year, I don't think the Sox can make it anywhere.

Papelbon Looked Bit Better Tonight, but Still is Not His Old Self

Tonight, Papelbon, after some rest, was throwing the ball hard - but again, two hitters were able to hit pretty deep flyballs off his heater. His fastball was at 94 mph or 95 or 96, but, somehow, it looks more "straight" than it has in the past and lacks the "late life." He looked best tonight on the last pitch of the game when he got Pie to swing and miss on the third strike. I think that was his only "swing and miss" strike of the outing. That's very unusual for Papelbon when he's on. It happened last time too.. Until I see him with more zip in his pitches and getting guys to miss, I'll remain worried that somthing is "off" or wrong with Papelbon.

Other items of note:

Penny looked terrible -- He threw all flat fastballs and his curve wasn't great either and his location was bad....I can't see this guy improving enormously - I hope I'm wrong. Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez pitched very well and helped save the game tonight.

Dice-K Looks Injured, Sick or, Just "Not Right"

What the hell is going on with the Sox? This weird start keeps getting weirder. Tonight, Matsuzaka didn't look right from the first pitch he threw. He seemed to lack energy. He didn't throw the ball as hard as usual.. His location was terrible. It was as if he couldn't throw any ball normally - period. I've seen Dice-K on other bad nights, and this was worse. There is something going on - My suspicion is even stronger now that his physical state is poor as a result of all the time he put into playing in the WBC. (I mentioned this after his 1st start!) Tonight, Jerry Remy was animated in noticing Dice-K had nothing on his fastball and that NONE of his pitches were working.
So, why the hell was Dice-K even out there? Why hadn't he seen a doctor? Is the telling the truth to John Farrell and Terry Franconca? Are they trying to prod a bit with Dice-K to get the truth? You get a sense there's some unknown factor that'd explain Dice-K's state.
Meanwhile, after one inning with a few hits, the team is down 5 -3 and appear capable of making the Oakland A's look like the Yankees of the late 90s.

Sox Sleep-walking and Mediocre on West Coast

I hope the Red Sox are not THIS bad. I do not believe they are, but, they're playing like crap, aren't they?
No hitting, No pitching. No energy, it seems.
Last night, I was surprised that Jon Lester seemed so "average" after a previous bad outing. Last year, he was so consistent and seemed to rebound well if some part of his pitching wasn't working. I watched part of the game and Jerry Remy kept accurately pointing out that Lester's pitches were up in the zone. He's so much better when he's throwing it low. Then, to my surprise, I read Lester's comment today that he thought he performed better than it appeared.
Perhaps Lester is in a bit of denial. He has some adjusting to do to improve.
The hitting, meanwhile, has been awful -- and reinforcing the worries of fans like me who believed we needed another bat in the lineup. It's very clear when the Sox face a guy who does not throw many fastballs, they're in trouble. A majority of this Sox lineup hit fastballs, but only on a couple - Youkilis, Pedroia, for ex. - can hit other pitches consistently.
One good "contact hitter" would do wonders for the Red Sox. A guy like Todd Walker.
I am starting to get a bit worried about David Ortiz. I think his timing is still not right, but, I'll wait a while before panicking.

Where is Papelbon's "late life" in his fastball?

I watched Jonathan Papelbon's grueling save of the game against the Angels' Saturday - and, I'm a bit concerned about how he looked.

First, I heard vague reports from Spring Training that Papelbon hadn't performed in his typically top-notch way. I never watched him, so, it was impossible to judge. I knew he was supposed to be working on another pitch.

Well, yesterday, I watched as Angel hitters kept getting the bat on one Papelbon fastball after another. Everyone spoke about he incredible 9th-inning battle between Papelbon and Howie Kendrick. Kendrick, at one point, fouled off seven balls in a row. What few were noting was how rare it is for a hitter to manage to keep getting wood on that many Papelbon pitches in a row.

I did not see the normal "giddyup" in Papelbon's fastball. Even with velocity, it looked more straight and hittable than usual. And, this is after he had several days' rest - and at the beginning of the season. What's going on here?

I hope there is an explanation. He looked a bit better in his first outing of the season.
With Papelbon, that "late life" on his heater is everything. Without it, the Sox season goes down in flames.

Wakefield Pitches Poorly -- No Surprise

OK , I know the season just started, but, I'm closely monitoring Wakefield. Tonight was so typical for him. He gave up three runs early and walked five guys in his 6-inning stint. In the 5th inning, with the Sox down 3-1, Wakefield gave up two singles and a walk to load the bases with nobody out. Then, somehow, he got three straight outs and pitched one more inning after that. The Sox went on to have other problems - It's now 6-1 Angels in the 7th, but, what killed me was about 20 minutes ago, I heard Don Orsillo and Tony Masserotti giving Wakefield a lot of credit for lasting as long as he did and saving the bullpen for the remaining two games.
What? I'm so sick of Wakefield getting this kind of "credit" for being an "innings guy."

I'm telling you: He's not that good anymore. The problem is I get the strong impression that no matter how badly he performs, this Red Sox management team - of Francona and Epstein - will leave Wakefield in there until he keeps losing and losing and it's too late to undo the damage.

Hope for Varitek?...but, Too Early to Interpret Signs

A Few Thoughts After Opening Series with Rays:

In some ways, the series with the Rays suggested that some of last year's dynamics (in terms of Sox strengths/weaknesses vs. top teams) seem to have carried over to the 2009 season. It's WAY too early to know.

• The Rays look damned good again. The hitters at the top of their line-up somehow looked even more intimidating than last year. (Crawford is healthy, for ex.) Garza looked very impressive and Kazmir looked sharper than he did last year at times.. Plus, I worry - like many Sox fans - if our line-up has enough "contact hitters" to keep us in games against good pitchers. Guys like Ellsbury, Bay, Varitek, Lowell, Lowrie have sometimes struggled when facing pitchers who throw more than straight fastballs.


• It may sound crazy, but perhaps the most important early sign is that Jason Varitek has hit the ball hard a few times. TwoHRs in three games! Last year, he had stretches when it seemed you'd be grateful whe he hit a foulball! Maybe his work with Dave Magadan will pay off a bit. The Captain looks better at the plate - Maybe we have 9 real batters again.


• Relief pitcher Ramon Ramirez pitched well. He could be a key bullpen contributor.


• I think the losses by Lester and Matzusaka don't mean anything - but, when Dice-K himself acknowledged afterward that his fastball had no life, it made me hope there's no physical problem here. He looked tired on the mound, to me - Mayb it was WBC fatigue.


• It's too early to judge Big Papi - He never hits Kazmir and Garza was awesome yesterday. I did see Ortiz swing and miss at one Garza fastball down the middle and thought: "Ortiz used to hit that pitch every time a few summers ago" We'll see....but, I, for one, believe that if his wrist is OK, Ortiz should start to hit soon. He's too good a hitter to not hit. If he has any long slump, that's not just a bad sign, but, a VERY bad sign for him and the entire team. Without Manny, the Sox are so dependent on Papi -- I think they need another slugger.
• I worry a bit about Ellsbury - Has he improved his hitting? One Ray pitcher threw the ball inside on him effectively for an entire at-bat. He had that problem last year - It's time for him to adjust.
• It's going to be a tough, long season competing against the Rays and the Yankees. Before it's over, I have a feeling the Red Sox will have to add a hitter. The Rays hitting even seemed better than the Red Sox in the first series. I never had that feeling before.

Ten Points as the Season Opens Today

1) While I agree with others that the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all have the potential to win the American League East, it bugs me how many baseball writers and fans are saying the exact same things about these teams. I think one or more of these teams will probably not come close to living up to expectations. (My guess: the Rays) Teams so often look good on paper, but run into unforeseen developments - like injuries - every season.
Look at the Yankees in the past eight years: In April, they've always appeared awesome, but, they haven't won the World Series since 2000.

2) Speaking of baseball writers being in "lockstep," virtually everyone is saying the Yankees' starting rotation is the best around. I, for one, am not buying it. Yes, they have good pitching, but, I won't call it great yet. I predict, by the end of the season, two or three of their starters will have not performed up to expectations. Sabathia, in his first year amidst the pressures of NY, is not as much of a "guarantee" as predicted. I think AJ Burnett will not be the reliable "stud" pitcher all are suggesting. His chances for injury are high, if you check his career stats. Chien-Ming Wang can be erratic at times, especially in "big" games. It's still not clear that Joba Chamberlain is best-suited to be a starter for a whole season. He throws so hard that he may run into injuries - as he did last year. Andy Petitte is old and his skills are in decline.
Plus, the Yankee bullpen is not so "special" either -- meaning, if these over-rated starters get into trouble, maybe Joe Girardi will wear out his set-up guys the way Joe Torre used to.

3) Tim Wakefield should NOT be in the Sox starting rotation. Hell, I don't think he should even be on the team anymore. Wakefield is reportedly a terrific guy off the field. The problem is he just isn't that good anymore. He has not pitched consistently in the past few years. The Red Sox have a soft spot for "Wake" - or denial. I'm sick of hearing about how "he's a good "innings guy."
Yeah - bad innings. I predict he will again do poorly and it will probably take the team too long to yank him from the rotation. Clay Buchholz should be in his spot - period.

3) The Red Sox hitting is much more of a question mark than some of the "lapdog" Boston writers have been claiming. The hitting is good, but not great - on paper. The way things are trending, Pedroia and Youkilis will probably have solid years. David Ortiz can hit for power again, but, the question for Big Papi is whether his wrist will hold up ALL summer. Jacoby Ellsbury must show that he can keep adjusting, in general, and, even, during an at-bat, and hitting those inside fastballs. So, he's no certainty.
Mike Lowell will be OK if his hip holds up. JD Drew is erratic at best, when healthy, and, often, injured. Jason Bay and Jed Lowrie can both hit but, while Bay hits for a bit more power, each can be fooled by a good pitcher's breaking stuff. That leavesVaritek, and he the question is if he'll break .240 All in all, this is not a rock-solid, offense. It's got holes, but..........if a few players have good streaks (like Drew in June last year) and Baldelli or others do well, they might be good enough to win.

4) I think when Baldelli does play, he'll have some pop in his bat and make it harder to keep him on the bench at times.

5) I do agree with others on the value of John Smoltz. It seems likely that come the mid-summer, he'll find a way into that rotation, and, down the stretch, I bet he'll win a few big games. They have to use discretion in how they use Smoltz to help keep him strong, however.

6) I think Buchholz will find his way back into the rotation. He's just too good to stay in the minors. He's regained his confidence and wants to prove himself. It'd be a shame to not put him a position to comeback.

7) Daniel Bard will be called up to make a contribution, and, if his 100 mph heater is zipping by hitters, maybe he'll stay a while.

8) I think it's premature to rave about the Boston bullpen. Saito is coming off an injury. Okajima started to pitch better during parts of last year. Delcarmen was erratic. Papelbon became completely wiped out by the playoffs. He was tiring at the end of the season, relying too much on the fastball. Hitters have adjsuted to Papelbon, and he has to keep counter-adjusting to stay on top. I think he can do that, but he needs regular rest.

9) If the Red Sox inconsistent hitting results in them trailing in the AL East come July, I think they'll try to get a good hitter by the trading deadline.

10) The Yankees lost today and Sabathia got shelled! What a great start to the Sox season!