What's Up with Papelbon?

Large questions surround Jonathan Papelbon right now. Fans are wondering if the affable, fist-pumping closer will be able to return to top form for one last year, or, if 2011 will bring a continuation of subpar performance as he prepares to say goodbye.

First, is there still a chance the 30-year-old Papelbon may be traded before the 2011 season? How about being traded during the season, particularly at the trading deadline if he's not performing that well? Second, can he still pitch well enough to serve as the team's closer? Third, how will he feel about the addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen?


Beyond that, what was Papelbon's reaction to the Red Sox making an off-season offer to NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera - even if it was only semi-serious? (It was a three-year offer for $51 million, after all)


In summary, the situation with Papelbon does not appear to be nearly as "settled" as Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has suggested. The Red Sox have said they expect Jenks and Daniel Bard to share the role of setting up Papelbon, who they've expressed confidence in.


That's the key question, of course: can Papelbon can regain his effectiveness after the 2010 season, when he had a career-record number of eight blown saves? The crux of concern is that Papelbon's fastball is not what it used to be. What made Papelbon's fastball terrific was its "late life" - which often result in batters swinging at strike three. However, in the past two seasons, Papelbon's fastball has often lacked some of its giddy-up and become a very hittable, "straight" fastball. In fact, while in 2009, Papelbon's fastball regained some movement late in the season, in 2010, Papelbon seemed to have more permanently lost the "zip" needed.
Worsening matters, Papelbon's command of that straighter fastball has been average or poor much of the time, resulting in him giving up hits, including far more home runs, and many more walks than earlier in his career.

By the end of the 2010 season, I got the impression that Papelbon simply couldn't throw his "old" moving fastball - period. Every outing, he'd throw his "new" straighter fastball - often at slightly less velocity- and hitters had no trouble getting wood on the ball. Often Papelbon also
lacked any control and threw his fastballs down or near the middle of the plate. This bad combination resulted in many shaky appearances; in fact, his performances caused him to narrowly avoid more blown saves than the eight he suffered.

Papelbon has to find a way to salvage his pitching. Either he has used his off-season workouts and conditioning to try an approach that will bring back the late life on his heater OR he needs to really develop one of his other pitches further. I don't think an occasional split-fingered fastball or mediocre slider will be enough for Papelbon.

So, as it turns out, the potential impact of Jenks is the least of Papelbon's concerns. Hopefully, Jenks will improve on his last few seasons of pitching in subpar form, but, regardless, Papelbon needs all the help he can get. If he continues to pitch OK but keeps declining a bit, Papelbon will leave after 2011 and Bard will likely become the new closer. (Unless Jenks surprises the hell out of everyone and outpitches Bard or convinces the Sox to leave Bard in the setup role)

Papelbon is entering his 6th year no the Red Sox. He's in his final year of arbitration and is expected to work out another one-year deal for approximately $11 million. He's said all along he looked forward to becoming a free agent, but, the irony is that now, unless he can turn things around, he won't attract many interested teams.

It's a shame that Papelbon appears to be following the cycle of most closers. They reach their peak early and pitch their hearts out, but, then, their skills decline rather fast too.

I hope Papelbon can somehow revive his old fastball. He could make all the difference in the Red Sox chances to win it all in 2011. He certainly made a difference in contributing to the 2007 championship.

If Papelbon can come back in 2011, he'll be defeating all the odds and the trends. If, by chance, he has pitched his best baseball, he's already given Red Sox fans many thrills.

Reactions to the Red Sox' Terrific Off-Season - So Far

The Red Sox recent signing of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford has been a "positive shock" to
fans across New England. The team, on paper, is argubly in a much stronger position to contend for a championship. On the other hand, we shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in projections because unforeseen developments often alter things.

As this blog is posted, the team still has a long way to go to inject much-needed improvement to its bullpen, which performed very poorly in 2010.

Among my many reactions to these "mega-deals" are the following:

• I think it's obvious that the Sox ownership and management team felt it had to make some major moves in this particular off-season. It appears as if owner John Henry - perhaps joined by others - told General Manager Theo Epstein that, unlike in past offseasons, they not only were OK with signing star players to long, very expensive contracts, but, in fact, enthusiastically supported Epstein taking this approach. Epstein has consistently avoided signing elite players to deals of more than four years. This is a view I've heard expressed by Michael Felger and Tony Massarotti on "98.5 - The Sports Hub," the sports radio talk show that has successfully challenged WEEI in Boston in the past year. Indeed, it is almost inconceivable, to me, to imagine Epstein orchestrating the Crawford deal on his own. Crawford is a very good player, but, he's not worth signing for $142 million over seven years! I accept that Theo has long eyed and planned to go after Gonzalez. The significant decline in the team's television ratings on NESN last summer was an important factor. Plus, the team's top officials, including Theo, had to be aware of the lack of "buzz" about the 2010 Red Sox. Having said all this, I still am amazed the team agreed to two huge deals in the same winter. Any doubts about whether the Sox were willing to go head-to-head spending-wise with the NY Yankees after the team's struggles since the 2009 playoffs have been eliminated in one fell swoop.
• By adding Gonzalez and Crawford to the young leaders of the team - like Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia - Sox officials have increased the odds of the team being in the competitive mix for the next several years at least.
• The team's hitting will be much better, but, people are overlooking that Gonzalez and Crawford are essentialy replacing the hitting of Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre, who, last year, consistently led the team's offense and came up with clutch hits, particularly Beltre. Still, Beltre performed "over his head" last year and there are concrete reasons to believe "Gonzo" really will thrive in Fenway Park and hit far more home runs and extra base hits there compared to his output in San Diego. Gonzalez, strikingly, has hit better on the road than in PETCO field, a huge "pitchers' park."
• The Yankees' failure to sign Cliff Lee, their top priority for the winter, cannot be overestimated in terms of its potential impact on the Sox-Yanks battle to win the AL East. The Yankees' starting pitching is what did them in in the 2010 playoffs. Now, it's unlikely they'll add a top-notch starter. In addition, Andy Pettitte may or may not return. C.C. Sabathia is a bit older and less likely to keep performing at such an incredible level. Lastly, several of the Bombers' stars - Jeter, Posada, Rivera - are getting old, making the odds of at least some decline in ability or performance more likely.
• I have a strong opinion on the Sox lineup that I haven't heard others express so far. I believe the team should consider trying to convince Crawford to return to hitting in the leadoff spot, thereby replacing Jacoby Ellsbury. Yes, Crawford has to be OK with this move and media reports have suggested that he prefers to NOT hit lead-off, however, if, in fact, he might accept the move, he'd be far better than Ellsbury and that would allow Youkilis to bat third and Gonzalez to bat clean-up, with David Ortiz in the fifth spot. When you leave Ellsbury in the lead-off spot and bat Pedroia second and Crawford third, you force Youkilis to bat fifth, presumably behind Gonzalez. There is no way, in my view, that keeping Ellsbury in the lead-off spot should force Youkilis, who has been the team's best hitter, to bat fifth. You want Youk to get more at-bats than that. Jacoby Ellsbury has been quite average as the leadoff hitter in the lineup. He still lacks patience and is not able to wait for the ball to come all the way in -- a skill that good "contact" hitters have. Good leadoff hitters hit for contact and walk often but Ellsbury does neither. Beyond all this, Ellsbury can hit in the 9th spot and be a dangerous bridge to Crawford and the top of the lineup. That way, the lineup would benefit from the back-to-back speed of Ellsbury and Crawford without the liability of Ellsbury's limited hitting skill impacting the strong hitters behind him.
• Of course, the Red Sox are more likely to hit Ellsbury first, Pedrois second and Crawford third with Gonzo at cleanup and Youkilis fifth and Big Papi sixth. Even that way, the lineup is much harder for a pitcher to get through - with JD Drew the likely 7th hitter followed by Marco Scutaro and Jared Saltalamacchia - in whatever sequence.
• I wrote about Gonzo's likely impact in a previous blog, but I think Crawford's performance is a bit harder to predict. His capacity to play outstanding in left field - at Fenway and on the road - is easy to predict. Crawford may quickly remind people of Yaz - and, possibly, better, at Fenway. He's a superlative fielder, and, when he gets even more used to the Monster, he'll probably start throwing runners out. Crawford is a very good hitter whose strength is his consistency to make contact. He has hit in the low .300 area in five of his nine seasons and .296 in two other seasons - meaning he's basically been at .300 for most of his career. Likewise, Crawford has gotten more than 180 hits in six seasons and 177 in a seventh. He has hit more than 10 HRs in six seasons. Last year, he reached his highest home run total at 19.
• It seems - from the early exposure to Gonzo and Crawford - that both have an excellent attitude in terms of effort and hunger to win it all, but, also, neither seems likely to be fazed by playing in Boston. In fact, it's easy to imagine both guys loving the additional attention and appreciation of the fans here compared to in San Diego and Tampa Bay, where things were a lot more low-key.
• It's absolutely amazing that the Red Sox, after several years of avoiding big, expensive, long-term deals, have made two within the past two weeks. Of course, they completed a trade of three minor-league players for Gonzalez and have to work out a long-term deal. It's expected the team will end up paying Gonzo over $20 million a year for at least six years, and, maybe seven. The Red Sox clearly concluded they had to give a large, exciting jumpstart to the team, after a 2010 season when people were losing interest. Now, Epstein and Henry have put together a new "nucleus" that should keep the Red Sox competitive for a number of years. I expect a World Series within the next five years. Back when I was growing up in the 1960s, I would have never said that. Let's face it: While this Henry/Lucchino/Epstein management team has its flaws, they deserve enormous credit for bringing a whole new era to the Red Sox that just keeps continuing. I can't wait for the 2011 season.

It's "Gonzo" or Bust for 2011 Red Sox

Just when pressure was building on the Red Sox to make a major deal before 2011, Sox GM Theo Epstein has pulled out his "ace in the hole."

The Red Sox, as of today, have agreed to a deal, in principle, for San Diego Padres' first-baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The Padres' slugger, viewed as one of the best hitters in the game, will automatically become the new "centerpiece" of their lineup, giving them a much-needed boost in power. (A serious power vacuum has existed since the days when Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz were both hitting in their prime at the 3rd and 4th spots in the order)


Boston's baseball writers and serious fans were beginning to question how the Sox brass could assemble a competitive team for 2011 when Epstein suddenly stepped up negotiations for Gonzalez in the past two days. Now, as of Dec. 4th, a deal has been concluded that has the Sox trading a few top prospects - including pitcher Casey Kelly, - for Gonzo, a proven slugger who can become the "center" of their lineup. Gonzalez and the Red Sox will soon iron out the details of his new contract, expected to be an expensive, long-term package.


What's understated is the extent to which the Red Sox desparately needed to get Gonzalez. The Sox' off-season until now has been a real "downer" - with the loss of catcher Victor Martinez, on of its best hitters, and serious signs that third baseman Adrian Beltre is unlikely to return. Beltre was the Red Sox' best hitter in 2010 and carried the team on his back for key stretches. The Red Sox, in the past few days, had met with free agent outfielders Carl Crawfod of the Tampa Bay Rays and Jason Werth of the Phillies, but, I'd argue that neither of those two are worth large, long-term investments. Crawford, with his blazing speed, is more multi-talented than Werth, but, still not the kind of "game-changer" a team necessarily wants to commit more than $80 - $100 million to for five or six years.


The team was already short on hitting going into 2010, but, without Martinez and Beltre, the "hole" in their 2011 lineup would have been gargantuan without the addition of Gonzalez. In fact, I'd argue that, even with Gonzalez, the Sox need a bit more hitting to compete with the Yankees in the AL East. The subtraction of Beltre and Martinez is still greater than the addition of Gonzo. Of course, the Red Sox are not done with their dealing yet. Perhaps they'll still add Phillies' free agent outfielder Werth, but, I doubt they'll follow through, now, on either Werth or Crawford, though, due to the size, length and cost of the Gonzo deal.


Gonzalez, in the 2010 season, batted .298, with 31 HR, 101 RBI, and an OPS of .904. His numbers have been excellent for the past five years or so, but, what enhances them is that he hit that well in PETCO field, which is widely recognized as a "pitchers ballpark." Many believe he'll hit considerably better at Fenway Park, which is suited for lefthanded hitters who can take advantage of hitting balls of the Green Monster in left field. Gonzalez, who has an "inside-out" swing, will likely grow fond of the Monster and may benefit, like other Bosox lefthanded sluggers, from the right-field fence being moved in a bit before the start of the 2011 season.


Unknown, of course, is whether Gonzalez will end up having the personality, temperment and style that makes it easier to succeed in Boston, which some players find very tough or impossible to play in. I don't know anything about this guy, but he'll benefit from having some solid, unselfish teammates like Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz.


Will the Red Sox add more hitting? I hope so. Many writers and fans have forgotten that the team never really replaced Manny Ramirez, who left in the middle of the 2008 season. They didn't replace Jason Bay, who they let go, as a free agent, at the end of the 2009 season. They got some power back with Victor Martinez, at the 2009 trading deadline, but, Victor is gone now. And, the same goes with their temporary benefits last year from Adrian Beltre, who is widely expected to sign with another team now.


I can see a lineup now consisting of: 1. Jacoby Ellsbury 2. Dustin Pedroia 3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Kevin Youkilis 5. David Ortiz 6. JD Drew 7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia 8. ________ 9. Marco Scutaro


I left the #8 spot blank because it's unclear who will play left field and where that person will be inserted in the lineup. I still think that when you consider Ellsbury's limited hitting skills, the fading abilities of Ortiz and the ineffectiveness of Drew, the team's overall hitting will still be lacking against the good teams. I have to admit, however, that Gonzo has reignited some of my hopes.


Now, the team needs to find new blood for its incomplete, weak bullpen, and, it just may round out into an overall condition that allows it to compete in the AL East much better than in 2010.