First, is there still a chance the 30-year-old Papelbon may be traded before the 2011 season? How about being traded during the season, particularly at the trading deadline if he's not performing that well? Second, can he still pitch well enough to serve as the team's closer? Third, how will he feel about the addition of Bobby Jenks to the bullpen?
Beyond that, what was Papelbon's reaction to the Red Sox making an off-season offer to NY Yankee closer Mariano Rivera - even if it was only semi-serious? (It was a three-year offer for $51 million, after all)
In summary, the situation with Papelbon does not appear to be nearly as "settled" as Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has suggested. The Red Sox have said they expect Jenks and Daniel Bard to share the role of setting up Papelbon, who they've expressed confidence in.
That's the key question, of course: can Papelbon can regain his effectiveness after the 2010 season, when he had a career-record number of eight blown saves? The crux of concern is that Papelbon's fastball is not what it used to be. What made Papelbon's fastball terrific was its "late life" - which often result in batters swinging at strike three. However, in the past two seasons, Papelbon's fastball has often lacked some of its giddy-up and become a very hittable, "straight" fastball. In fact, while in 2009, Papelbon's fastball regained some movement late in the season, in 2010, Papelbon seemed to have more permanently lost the "zip" needed.
Worsening matters, Papelbon's command of that straighter fastball has been average or poor much of the time, resulting in him giving up hits, including far more home runs, and many more walks than earlier in his career.
By the end of the 2010 season, I got the impression that Papelbon simply couldn't throw his "old" moving fastball - period. Every outing, he'd throw his "new" straighter fastball - often at slightly less velocity- and hitters had no trouble getting wood on the ball. Often Papelbon also
lacked any control and threw his fastballs down or near the middle of the plate. This bad combination resulted in many shaky appearances; in fact, his performances caused him to narrowly avoid more blown saves than the eight he suffered.
Papelbon has to find a way to salvage his pitching. Either he has used his off-season workouts and conditioning to try an approach that will bring back the late life on his heater OR he needs to really develop one of his other pitches further. I don't think an occasional split-fingered fastball or mediocre slider will be enough for Papelbon.
So, as it turns out, the potential impact of Jenks is the least of Papelbon's concerns. Hopefully, Jenks will improve on his last few seasons of pitching in subpar form, but, regardless, Papelbon needs all the help he can get. If he continues to pitch OK but keeps declining a bit, Papelbon will leave after 2011 and Bard will likely become the new closer. (Unless Jenks surprises the hell out of everyone and outpitches Bard or convinces the Sox to leave Bard in the setup role)
Papelbon is entering his 6th year no the Red Sox. He's in his final year of arbitration and is expected to work out another one-year deal for approximately $11 million. He's said all along he looked forward to becoming a free agent, but, the irony is that now, unless he can turn things around, he won't attract many interested teams.
It's a shame that Papelbon appears to be following the cycle of most closers. They reach their peak early and pitch their hearts out, but, then, their skills decline rather fast too.
I hope Papelbon can somehow revive his old fastball. He could make all the difference in the Red Sox chances to win it all in 2011. He certainly made a difference in contributing to the 2007 championship.
If Papelbon can come back in 2011, he'll be defeating all the odds and the trends. If, by chance, he has pitched his best baseball, he's already given Red Sox fans many thrills.
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